jaxperro
a426b8bb05
The scanner measured win rate over /closed-positions only, but Polymarket only redeems winning shares — losers sit unredeemed in /positions at curPrice 0 and never enter closed-positions. That made win rates wildly inflated (e.g. 90.6% vs a true 48.3%). Win rate now unions both endpoints over a 90-day window. With the honest metric, ~no top wallet exceeds ~60%; true rates cluster near 50%. Also: - backtest.py: replay a watchlist over a recent window, fill at historical price, mark outcomes from resolution. A 7d run of 4 top wallets returned -48%, confirming flat-size entry-copying is -EV at ~50% hit rates. - copytrade.py: add max_position_usd cap (proportional adds could otherwise balloon one position to the whole exposure limit) and Discord webhook alerts on every would-be trade. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
129 lines
5.7 KiB
Markdown
129 lines
5.7 KiB
Markdown
# Polymarket Smart Money
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Finds Polymarket wallets that **win more than 75% of their resolved bets** and
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**bet multiple times per week** — the "smart money" worth watching.
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Zero dependencies. One file, Python 3 stdlib only.
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## Run the dashboard
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```bash
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python3 smart_money.py
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```
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Open **http://localhost:8899**, hit **Scan**, and wait a minute or two.
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Adjust the filters (win rate, bets/week, minimum resolved bets, candidate
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pool size) and the table updates live while the scan runs. Click any trader
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to see their recent resolved bets and a link to their Polymarket profile.
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## Run in the terminal
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```bash
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python3 smart_money.py --scan # default 150-wallet pool
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python3 smart_money.py --scan --pool 300 # broader sweep
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```
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## How it works
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1. **Candidates** — pulls the 7d, 30d, and all-time leaderboards from
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`data-api.polymarket.com/v1/leaderboard` and dedupes into a candidate pool
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(default 150 wallets).
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2. **True win rate** — over resolved bets in the last 90 days. This is the
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subtle part: Polymarket only redeems *winning* shares, so `/closed-positions`
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(redeemed or sold) is heavily **survivorship-biased toward winners** —
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losing shares are worth $0 and sit unredeemed in `/positions` at
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`curPrice 0` forever. A correct win rate has to **union both** endpoints
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over the same window. Counting only `/closed-positions` (the naive approach)
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reports ~90% for wallets whose real hit rate is ~50%.
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3. **Frequency** — counts trades from `/activity` over the last 4 weeks;
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*bets/week* is the number of **distinct markets** traded per week, so 50
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fills on one order don't count as 50 bets.
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4. **Filter** — keeps wallets with win rate ≥ 75%, ≥ 2 bets/week, and ≥ 10
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resolved bets.
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> **Reality check:** with the unbiased metric, essentially **no** top wallet
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> wins 75% of its bets — true rates cluster around **49% (a coin flip)**, max
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> ~60%. The profitable ones make money through position sizing and entry
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> prices, *not* hit rate. Treat a high win rate as a red flag for a bias bug,
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> not a green light. See the backtest below.
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## Copy-trading (`copytrade.py`)
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Once you've found wallets worth following, `copytrade.py` watches them and
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mirrors their trades onto your own account.
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- **Sizing** — each fresh entry stakes a fixed **% of your bankroll** (default 2%).
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- **Mirror** — copies **entries and exits**: when they add, it adds
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proportionally; when they sell part of a position, it sells the same
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fraction of yours.
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- **Price guard** — skips a copy if the market has moved **>5%** from their
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fill price, so you don't chase.
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- **No backfill** — only copies positions they open *after* you start
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watching; positions they already held are tracked (so exits still mirror)
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but never opened.
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- **Per-position cap** — `max_position_usd` caps total cost in any one market.
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Without it, proportional adds let a single position balloon toward your whole
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exposure limit as the whale piles in (a backtest caught exactly this).
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- **Discord alerts** — set `discord_webhook` in the config to get a ping on
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every trade it would place (entries green, exits red).
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## Backtesting (`backtest.py`)
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Replays a watchlist's real trades over a recent window through the same copy
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logic, filling at each wallet's actual historical price and marking outcomes
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from how markets resolved.
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```bash
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python3 backtest.py --days 7
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```
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A 7-day backtest of four top wallets returned **−48% on deployed capital** —
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not because the engine is broken, but because the wallets' true entry hit rate
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is ~50% and flat-size copying pays the spread on every coin flip. Copying a
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profitable wallet's *entries* does not reproduce its edge, which lives in
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sizing and entry prices. Backtest before you fund anything.
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### ⚠️ Real money — read this
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It runs in **PAPER mode by default** and places nothing — it just logs what it
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*would* do. Live trading requires **all** of: `"mode": "live"` in the config,
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the `--live` flag, typing a confirmation phrase, and `py-clob-client` with
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valid credentials. Hard caps (per-trade, daily spend, total exposure, open
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positions, price bounds) apply in both modes. In live mode this places real
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orders with real money on your account — you own the config and the outcomes.
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```bash
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python3 copytrade.py --init # write config.example.json
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cp config.example.json config.json
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# ... edit config.json: add wallets to "watchlist", set bankroll & caps ...
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python3 copytrade.py # PAPER mode — safe, logs only
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python3 copytrade.py --once # single polling pass, then exit
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```
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Going live (only after you trust the paper output):
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```bash
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pip install py-clob-client
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# set "mode": "live" and fill in the "live" block (private_key, funder_address)
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python3 copytrade.py --live # prompts for a typed confirmation
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```
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`config.json` and `copytrade_state.json` are gitignored so your credentials
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and runtime state never get committed.
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## Caveats
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- Candidates come from the leaderboards, so this surfaces *profitable* sharps.
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A high-win-rate wallet that has never cracked any leaderboard window won't
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appear — scanning every wallet on the platform isn't feasible via the
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public API.
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- Win rate is measured over resolved bets in the last 90 days, not all history.
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- **Win rate ≠ EV.** Wallets with positive all-time leaderboard PnL routinely
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show ~50% true win rates and even negative 90-day realized PnL. Following a
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wallet profitably is about *how* it sizes and prices entries, not how often
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it's right. The `realized_pnl` column is position-level over 90 days and is
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**not** comparable to the all-time leaderboard figure.
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- Very high-volume / market-maker wallets (thousands of fills) can't be cleanly
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backtested via the public API — too many fills, no historical position
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snapshot.
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