jaxperro
16d8deb878
FINDINGS: 'The tape era opens' section (sharp screen 742/742 proxy validation, Study A identity-null, Study B winner's curse, crater refill clock) + scorecard rows for the two forward-window studies + research/ in repo layout. HANDOFF: #16/#17 in the open queue, research silo + nightly launchd in snapshot/ops. README: research/ directory row. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
85 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
85 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
# HANDOFF — the living state of the world
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**The work queue lives in GitHub Issues** (migrated 2026-07-19):
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`gh issue list` · labels = silo (`copybot`/`recorder`/`pipeline`/`dashboard`)
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× type (`hardening`/`bug`/`research`/`strategy`/`ops`/`user-todo`/
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`pre-registered`/`post-mortem`) · milestones = the standing rhythms (audit
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backlog, Friday bench reviews, verdict gates). Commits that resolve one say
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`closes #N`. The July-2026 narrative/evidence log is FROZEN in
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[HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md](HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md) — incident post-mortems, decision
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rationale, the whole story. This file stays ~a page: boundary, snapshot, ops.
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## Issue burndown 2026-07-19 (audit → shipped)
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Migrated the queue to GitHub Issues (labels/milestones; `closes #N` in
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commits). Closed same day: #3 webhook rotated · #5 listeners start after
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seed · #6 dead-code sweep (retired copytrade CLI + LiveExecutor) · #7
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chain-balance gate in reconcile_exits + retry (kills the BetBoom zombie
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class) · #8 rpc-down heartbeat flag · #9 memory caps (skipped recency-
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bounded, settled bets >30d spool to an archive with drift-invariant
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compensation — TESTED identical drift) · #10 publish-failure alarm · #11
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tape ingest sftp-first (base64 fallback) · #12 reconcile_entries 5m→30m.
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REOPENED #4: the redeemer's phantom-cash BOOBY TRAP is fixed + proven
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(on-chain sim SUCCESS; live fails honestly), but actually redeeming needs a
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Builder API Key (SDK gasless relay) the runtime bot deliberately lacks —
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LOW urgency, the platform auto-redeems winners itself. auto_redeem OFF.
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Open now: #1 Signal A, #2 tape research, #4 redeem builder-key, #13 Fri
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bench, #14 edge verdict, #16 surge momentum (forward window OPEN), #17
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oracle fair value (accumulating, nothing frozen).
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## Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)
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**Full autonomy on the bots**; the real-money bot **stays ARMED**. Never
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touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed),
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sizing/caps/deposits are the USER's call. USER DIRECTIVE 2026-07-16: the
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live bot mirrors the paper test EXACTLY (one deliberate exception:
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min_order_usd $1 = venue reality). If something looks genuinely dangerous,
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DISARM (`flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM -a wwf-copybot-live`) rather than
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push through.
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## Snapshot (2026-07-19)
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- **wwf-copybot-live** (REAL, ARMED): ~$59 equity ($66.42 contributed,
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realized −$16.94 lifetime — day-one incident + honest recognitions),
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6-wallet Set E rev 4, 4% of working equity/bet, alarm-free after the
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07-19 reconcile. **wwf-copybot** (paper $1k): same set, FAK-parity fills.
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Both on the audit-hardened build (locks, chain-gated sweep, boot-id
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single-writer guard, TLS'd user-ws — HANDOFF_ARCHIVE rev 16). 2026-07-20:
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FAK no-match OPENs get one re-quote retry on both bots, PER-NICHE waits
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from measured crater-refill times (crypto 4s / esports 10s / sports+slow
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25s — research/params/requote_timing.json; `fak_retry_niche_s` override,
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`fak_retry_s` fallback+kill-switch; second rejection tags "twice").
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- **wwf-recorder**: the FULL firehose (trades + order matches + comments
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+ crypto ticks, ~8M events/day, dual-socket ~99.9% capture, 25GB volume,
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NOTHING deleted until the Mac verifiably ingests it) → nightly →
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`live/rtds.duckdb` (trades + aux). Current-era ground truth for research.
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- **VALUE experiment: CLOSED 2026-07-19** — sub-2¢ hypothesis refuted
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(1W/993L, 0.075x); post-mortem in value/PLAN.md; app destroyed.
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- **research/ (NEW 2026-07-20, SILO — never touches the bots)**: tape-era
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edge factory. Sharp screen (`live/tape_sharps.py`, resolution proxy
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chain-validated 742/742, 25 copyable candidates); execution sim fitted on
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our own 29 labeled attempts (−2¢/fill optimism bias, thresholds sit 2×
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above it); Study A surge momentum #16 (identity NULL result — controls
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match the informed set) and Study B oracle fair value #17 (86% craters,
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winner's-curse inversion). Verdicts ONLY from research/forward_ledger.jsonl.
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- **Verdicts pending**: edge/size-up (#14, ~end of July, pre-registered) ·
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bench review Friday (#13: five new sharps + AIcAIc's prove-it week —
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cross-read the tape screen's candidates in live/tape_sharps.json) ·
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#16/#17 forward thresholds (in their issues).
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- Dashboards: jaxperro.com/{trading,live,value} · daily pipeline on the Mac
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at 08:00 (launchd, lockfile) — floors, bench forward table, edge row,
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tape ingest, Discord digest · research nightly at 09:15
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(com.jaxperro.research-nightly → research/nightly.sh, self-commits the
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forward ledger; remove with `launchctl unload`).
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## Ops quick-reference
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- Follow-set change: edit live/copybot.paper.json → `./live/deploy_bot.sh`;
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mirror config.live.example.json (nothing auto-writes it) + backtest.json.
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- State surgery: stop the machine, **watch heartbeats actually CEASE**
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(gotcha 15c — and the boot-id guard now makes a zombie writer yield),
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pull → edit → push → start → verify the first heartbeat.
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- Code deploy: push + `flyctl apps restart <app>` (boots clone main,
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clone-guard verifies). Image changes: `flyctl deploy --remote-only -c
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<toml> --ha=false`. Never two machines per app.
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- The bots commit their own state — always `git pull --rebase --autostash`
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before pushing from a session.
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- Read next: README.md (architecture + gotchas 1-18) · FINDINGS.md (research
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story) · value/PLAN.md (the refutation) · HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md (history).
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