Abort -> hard-reset to origin -> re-commit the running book. The
process is the book's single writer; remote state surgery must stop
the bot first (2026-07-08 BOOK RESET race: stale boot clone rebased
old state onto the reset and every publish died in UU until reboot).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Every drained buy fill is now recorded: the tok-match keeps _record_lag
(real lag/slippage), leftovers get a bet record synthesized from the fill
(_record_untracked_buy). check_book() asserts the book invariant after
every trade and at boot: my_pos token => bet record + conds entry + cash
debited. Records/conds self-correct; the cash leg heals only at boot and
only when ledger_drift matches one un-vouched position's cost+fee exactly
— anything else stays a visible ⚠ drift. my_pos entries now carry cond
(engine) and fills-ledger BUY lines carry token, so the book can always
self-attribute. reconcile_exits' drain no longer discards leftover buys.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The heartbeat/dashboard 'avg lag' was a lifetime accumulator that mixed the
retired 60s poll era into push mode, so a genuinely ~3s bot read as 48s.
lag_recent now keeps the last 24h of (ts, lag, slip); summary + feed report
the 24h average (n = lifetime copies, n24 = fills in window). Backfilled from
copybot_fills.jsonl on boot so it's populated immediately. Verified: 24h view
12s vs 48s lifetime — reflects real push execution.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A position can land in my_pos without a bet record when its buy fill is
drained in a context where _record_lag doesn't fire (e.g. a second market on
the same event in one batch): cash-correct (open_count/deployed read my_pos)
but INVISIBLE in the feed table — the header showed '2 open / $75 deployed'
while only 1 bet rendered. write_feed now synthesizes a bet record from any
open my_pos position lacking one, so the count always equals what's shown.
Ledger was unaffected (drift -0.0) — display-only. my_pos entries now carry
'wallet' for proper name attribution on the synthesized record.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
_handle_their_buy referenced their_prev in the fresh-OPEN branch but only
assigned it in the is_add branch — every new position crashed with
UnboundLocalError the moment the their-bet ceiling landed 2026-07-06. The
webhook/heartbeat try/except swallowed it as 'handler error', so the bot
logged FOLLOW then silently placed NOTHING (last real fill 07-05 23:17;
live Fly logs show FOLLOW ArbTrader ... -> heartbeat error: their_prev).
This is the primary cause of 'live bot missing bets'. Fix: hoist their_prev
above the if/else so both branches see the signal's prior position.
Also (the user's two asks):
- copybot on_wallet_activity: a QUALIFYING bet we were too slow to catch
(webhook missed / bot down / fast market resolved before we polled) is now
recorded as a missed bet 'too slow to follow (Nm late)' instead of silently
dropped; below-floor dust stays console-only. Filter runs before the stale
gate so we know if it would have qualified.
- sync_floors.py rewritten: PIN each paper-bot wallet's floor to the trusted
cache p80 (identical to the backtest's conv_thr), written to
copybot.paper.json, wired into daily.sh + committed. Kills the boot-time
data-api floor drift (fortuneking $1,498 boot vs $892 backtest) that made
the live bot filter out bets the backtest kept.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
copybot.py:
- 1.1 feed_path/fill_log are config-driven (live run won't clobber the
paper book's feed or fills ledger)
- 1.2 LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY / LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS / LIVE_SIGNATURE_TYPE env
overrides (Fly worker has no gitignored config.live.json)
- 1.4 chain_cash_gap(): live-only book-cash vs CLOB USDC balance, logged
as ⚠ CASH≠CHAIN (the real-money ledger_drift)
- 1.5 geo-gate is FATAL in live mode — unauth order probe; refuses to arm
from a 403-geo-blocked box before the confirm phrase (verified: refuses
from this US Mac)
- 1.6 mirror-exit retry: FAK sells that fill 0 on thin books retry each
backstop poll, ⚠ EXIT STUCK alert after 10 unfilled attempts
discord_daily.py: --ping retries 4x (5/10/15s) — launchd wakes the Mac to
run daily.sh and the heads-up ping was racing DNS/WiFi coming up after
sleep (getaddrinfo 'nodename nor servname'); the end-of-run digest always
landed, only the start ping lost the race.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The backtest reads positions (state); the bot reads trades (events). A trade
during downtime was silently baselined away at the next boot — not copied,
not missed, invisible — while the backtest still showed it (2026-07-07:
9 ArbTrader positions opened into the Fly trial-expiry crash-loop appeared
only in portfolio.json's current list). Now every boot + backstop poll
records any unseeded, unheld, unrecorded position that clears the follow
filter as a missed bet (reason 'bot offline'), settled hypothetically like
every other miss. Never copied — the entry is stale by definition. Dust
below risk.min_order_usd is ignored; API failure skips (silence is never
data). Bets that open AND close entirely within downtime stay the
backtest's domain.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Audit 2026-07-06 found the live paper book stuck: 4 of 5 open positions were
50/50 refunds the bot could never settle, and the 5th was a position the
signal had exited a day earlier.
- resolution_price tier 2: CTF payoutNumerators/Denominator via RPC
(ALCHEMY_RPC_URL env or config alchemy_key). CLOB winner flags never
populate for operator-resolved in-play markets and never express 50/50
refunds; the chain records both. Token-id match now precedes outcome-label
match in tier 1. New bet status: 'refund' (settles at $0.50/share,
redeems in live mode).
- reconcile_exits(): at boot + every backstop poll, verify the signal still
holds each copied token (market-filtered data-api queries — no pagination
cap). Exit requires three AFFIRMATIVE facts (open-positions fetched+empty,
closed-positions fetched+contains token, market fetched+still trading) —
an API failure must never read as an exit.
- ledger_drift(): cash-vs-ledger invariant checked every heartbeat, warned
in the log, published in the feed (ledger_drift / adjustments fields).
Accumulators no longer round per fill (that drifted cents per trim);
the feed rounds at render. SELL fills now logged to copybot_fills.jsonl.
- their_positions seed cap 500 -> 2000 (whale books exceed 500).
Dry-run vs a copy of the real stuck state: 4 refunds settled at 0.50,
McCormick mirror-exited at 0.69, drift stable at the known +15.45 residue.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Setting ALCHEMY_SIGNING_KEY on the worker switches start.sh to webhook
mode: instant copies on POST /alchemy (signature-verified), a 60s
housekeeping heartbeat (settle, feed, summary), and a full backstop poll
every 5 min so a dropped push costs minutes, not a silent miss. Webhook
mode now baselines at boot and publishes an initial feed like poll mode.
No signing key -> classic 60s poll, unchanged.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
config format matches backtest.json — one entry per wallet:
wallets: [{wallet, name, class: volume|whale, floor?}]
normalize_follow_config expands it into the legacy watchlist/watch/
floors/classes structures (old-format configs like config.live.json
pass through untouched). Volume wallets without an explicit floor get
an auto p80 derived from the data-api at boot (the worker has no cache),
logged and published in the feed. live/deploy_bot.sh = validate ->
preview -> commit -> push -> railway redeploy -> confirm boot.
Promotion workflow: prove a wallet in backtest.json, copy the same
entry into copybot.paper.json, run deploy_bot.sh.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* validate_timing.display_stats adds all_win/all_won/all_lost/all_pnl —
the wallet's record and own P&L over EVERY resolved bet ever cached,
trusted rows only, deduped one-per-market (feeds the dashboard's new
All-Time columns); consensus temp table now built before the pool
* copybot write_feed adds classes {name: volume|whale} so the dashboard
can badge whale-class wallets
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Mirror-exits were correct at book level (cash/fees) but invisible per bet:
a fully mirror-sold bet went to 'closed' with pnl null, and a TRIMmed bet
that later resolved subtracted its ORIGINAL cost+fee while ignoring the
sold leg's proceeds — understating whole-bet pnl on the feed.
* _drain_fills links every SELL fill to its bet record
(sold_shares / sold_proceeds, net of taker fee)
* write_feed: full mirror-sell -> pnl = sold_proceeds − cost − entry fee,
plus exit_price; dashboard's existing 'mirror-sold with recorded P&L'
branch picks it up
* settle_resolved: pnl = resolution proceeds + sold leg − original cost −
entry fee (pos.cost is trim-reduced; bet.cost is the original)
Sandbox-tested: TRIM cash+record, TRIM->WIN whole-bet truth, full EXIT
feed reconcile all agree to the cent.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Whale-class wallets bypass min_their_usd and per-wallet floors entirely:
both current whales win ~92% across their ENTIRE book (Stavenson 469-39,
0x4bFb 862-72 all-time trusted; 99.2% last 30d for the whale), so
size-filtering them only costs flow. The 0.95 entry cap stays (execution
guard, validated). Floors removed from the paper config for both.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* per-trade Discord pings removed everywhere: copybot placement/settle/startup
alerts silenced (engine.webhook forced off), webhook_receiver.py archived,
Procfile removed. The ONLY Discord output is now live/discord_daily.py at the
end of the daily pipeline: one embed listing every watch_sharps wallet with a
Polymarket profile link + 30D conviction win% / record / P&L.
* trust.py fixes found on the first scheduled run (sharp list collapsed 25->7):
- Polymarket rewrites endDate after resolution, so freshly re-pulled wallets'
corrected res_t stopped matching the stale cross-wallet consensus
(374/454 of iohihoo's rows wrongly distrusted). v2 rows with resolved=TRUE
are now self-certifying (resolved=TRUE implies endDate-based res_t observed
post-end) — consensus only gates legacy rows.
- daily.sh invalidates watchlist wallets by DELETING their pulled row; a
transiently failed re-pull then dropped the wallet's entire history from
the trusted set (the 0x73afc816 whale vanished). Legacy rows of wallets
missing from pulled now fall back to trusting markets resolved >=14d ago.
Re-run: 85 conviction wallets, 34 copy-positive sharps — whale/iohihoo/
Stavenson/LSB1/Kruto all recovered.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Once working equity exceeds stake_cap/pct ($6,250 at 4%), surplus cash sweeps
to state["reserve"]/portfolio reserve - banked, never bet, immune to drawdown
- keeping stakes at the $250 level where marketable fills sit inside typical
book depth. Feed/summary gain reserve; realized = cash+exposure+reserve-bank.
June backfill: equity $15,684 (+1468%), $9,185 banked, next stake pinned $250.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The CLOB reports winner=False on EVERY token of an unresolved market; only a
True winner anywhere means resolved. resolution_price treated False as "lost",
so the 60s poller settled live in-play positions as instant losses 1-3 min
after entry (June's ~2h Actions cadence masked it - markets had genuinely
resolved by the next check). Same semantics fixed in _market's resolved-cache
gate and validate_timing._clob_winner (unresolved held bets were counted as
losses, biasing copy_pnl selection downward).
Also: _record_lag now AGGREGATES fills per token (ADD used to overwrite the
display record, showing one fill's cost against the whole position's P&L -
the Cost $20.84 vs P&L -$57.30 confusion).
State repaired: the four July bets all actually WON on-chain (verified by
token winner flags) - settled correctly, +$225.40 proceeds restored, book
$1,045.19 (+45.19 realized, 4W/0L).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Engine records every blocked OPEN (no free cash, event cap, price guard) with
its would-be stake; settle_resolved marks them won/lost at CLOB resolution with
hypothetical P&L (fee-inclusive) - the live counterpart of the backtest's
Missed table. Feed gains missed[] + missed_pnl.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- engine (copytrade): stake_usd() = bankroll_pct x current equity (cash + open
cost basis) - Kelly-style compounding both directions - halved while equity
sits below 80% of its high-water mark; new risk.max_per_event (default 2)
blocks stacking correlated markets on one real-world event (dated-slug prefix
grouping; LSB1 once put 6 conviction bets on a single match).
- copybot: feed/summary report the dynamic stake, stake_pct, event_cap, hwm.
- portfolio backtest mirrors the exact same rule (PCT 4%, clamp $5-$150,
EVENT_CAP 2, brake 80%/half), with per-bet stakes in every table row and a
persistent CLOB slug cache for event grouping. June backfill: +426% vs +168%
flat - compounding amplifies the in-sample month; July live is the test.
Misses fell 62 -> 19 cash-missed (+26 deliberate event-cap skips): smaller
early stakes capture more signals.
- configs: bankroll_pct 0.04, max_trade/max_position 150 (runaway guards),
max_per_event 2.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- copybot: model Polymarket taker fees (V2, since 2026-03-30: shares*rate*p*(1-p),
sports 0.03) on every paper/live fill; track fees_paid in state + feed; settle
P&L nets the entry fee. publish_feed now commits state + fills ledger with the
feed (autostash rebase) so the local poller is the sole state writer.
- validate_timing: copy_pnl/held_pnl are fee-aware -> sharp selection now requires
clearing real copy costs; conv stats + lead profile use resolved bets only.
- conviction_scan/skill: exclude res_t>now rows (early-sold positions in
unresolved markets scored at curPrice - a mark, not an outcome; was ~5% of the
June test window at a 72% pseudo-win rate).
- portfolio: skip unresolved rows (stake used to vanish from equity); missed bets
of kind=open no longer KeyError - mark-to-market hypothetical P&L.
- collect: cap stale refreshes at STALE_CAP=2500/run (bulk-aged pool turned the
daily refresh into a ~40h pull holding the DuckDB lock).
- Actions cron disabled: GitHub ran */5 every ~1.5-2.5h and the 10-min stale
window skipped the rest -> 1 of ~104 qualifying buys copied. launchd --poll 60
is now the runner; workflow stays as manual backstop.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro