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live-rollout Phase 1 (partial) + discord ping post-wake retry

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copybot.py:
- 1.1 feed_path/fill_log are config-driven (live run won't clobber the
  paper book's feed or fills ledger)
- 1.2 LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY / LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS / LIVE_SIGNATURE_TYPE env
  overrides (Fly worker has no gitignored config.live.json)
- 1.4 chain_cash_gap(): live-only book-cash vs CLOB USDC balance, logged
  as ⚠ CASH≠CHAIN (the real-money ledger_drift)
- 1.5 geo-gate is FATAL in live mode — unauth order probe; refuses to arm
  from a 403-geo-blocked box before the confirm phrase (verified: refuses
  from this US Mac)
- 1.6 mirror-exit retry: FAK sells that fill 0 on thin books retry each
  backstop poll, ⚠ EXIT STUCK alert after 10 unfilled attempts

discord_daily.py: --ping retries 4x (5/10/15s) — launchd wakes the Mac to
run daily.sh and the heads-up ping was racing DNS/WiFi coming up after
sleep (getaddrinfo 'nodename nor servname'); the end-of-run digest always
landed, only the start ping lost the race.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
2026-07-07 10:59:05 -04:00
parent 1608b5b06a
commit 0e95ab1bf3
2 changed files with 93 additions and 10 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
copybot.py
+78 -5
View File
@@ -46,6 +46,7 @@ import os
import sys
import threading
import time
import urllib.error
import urllib.request
from http.server import BaseHTTPRequestHandler, ThreadingHTTPServer
@@ -115,6 +116,8 @@ FOLLOW_DEFAULT = {
}
RECENT_TRADE_WINDOW_S = 600 # webhook just told us a trade happened; ignore stale
# defaults — config keys feed_path / fill_log override them (LIVE_ROLLOUT 1.1:
# a live-money run must never clobber the paper book's feed or fills ledger)
FILL_LOG = "copybot_fills.jsonl" # append-only ledger of every copy fill + lag/slippage
FEED = os.path.join("live", "copybot_live.json") # published feed the trading dashboard reads
FEED_PUSH_MIN_S = 120 # min seconds between feed git-pushes (commit-on-change)
@@ -361,6 +364,8 @@ class Copybot:
self.negrisk_warned = set() # conds we've already warned need manual redeem
self.lock = threading.Lock() # serialize engine/settle access (webhook is threaded)
self.here = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
self.feed_path = cfg.get("feed_path", FEED)
self.fill_log = cfg.get("fill_log", FILL_LOG)
# persisted across restarts via the engine's state file
self.conds = engine.state.setdefault("conds", {}) # token_id -> conditionId (open positions)
engine.state.setdefault("cash", cfg["bankroll_usd"]) # free cash (recycles on sell/resolution)
@@ -398,7 +403,7 @@ class Copybot:
# sells go to the fills ledger too — the audit had no sell
# trail to reconcile the ledger against
try:
with open(os.path.join(self.here, FILL_LOG), "a") as fh:
with open(os.path.join(self.here, self.fill_log), "a") as fh:
fh.write(json.dumps({
"ts": round(time.time(), 1), "side": "SELL",
"token": f["token"], "shares": round(f["shares"], 4),
@@ -449,7 +454,7 @@ class Copybot:
"mode": "live" if self.engine.ex.live else "paper",
}
try:
with open(os.path.join(self.here, FILL_LOG), "a") as fh:
with open(os.path.join(self.here, self.fill_log), "a") as fh:
fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
except Exception:
pass
@@ -560,7 +565,7 @@ class Copybot:
return
self.engine.state["feed_sig"] = sig
feed["updated"] = int(time.time())
path = os.path.join(self.here, FEED)
path = os.path.join(self.here, self.feed_path)
os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True)
tmp = path + ".tmp"
json.dump(feed, open(tmp, "w"), indent=1)
@@ -585,10 +590,10 @@ class Copybot:
# publish only when the FEED itself changed (a bet placed/settled) —
# the state file churns bookkeeping every cycle and would otherwise
# commit every FEED_PUSH_MIN_S forever.
if subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "diff", "--quiet", "--", FEED],
if subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "diff", "--quiet", "--", self.feed_path],
capture_output=True).returncode == 0:
return
paths = [p for p in (FEED, self.engine.state_path, FILL_LOG)
paths = [p for p in (self.feed_path, self.engine.state_path, self.fill_log)
if os.path.exists(os.path.join(repo, p))]
subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "add", "-f"] + paths, capture_output=True)
if subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "diff", "--cached", "--quiet"],
@@ -628,6 +633,27 @@ class Copybot:
self.engine.persist()
log(f"baseline: {n} existing trades marked seen — copying only NEW trades from now")
_chain_bal = (0.0, None) # (checked_at, usdc) — cached; poll ≤1/min
def chain_cash_gap(self):
"""LIVE only (LIVE_ROLLOUT 1.4): book cash minus the exchange's actual
USDC balance — the real-money version of ledger_drift. None in paper
mode or on a failed fetch (never treat silence as a number)."""
if not self.engine.ex.live:
return None
now = time.time()
ts, bal = self._chain_bal
if now - ts > 60:
try:
from py_clob_client.clob_types import BalanceAllowanceParams, AssetType
r = self.engine.ex.client.get_balance_allowance(
BalanceAllowanceParams(asset_type=AssetType.COLLATERAL))
bal = int(r.get("balance", 0)) / 1e6
self._chain_bal = (now, bal)
except Exception:
return None
return None if bal is None else self.engine.state.get("cash", 0) - bal
def summary(self, cycle):
bank = self.cfg["bankroll_usd"]
stake = self.engine.stake_usd() # dynamic: pct of current equity
@@ -645,6 +671,9 @@ class Copybot:
bankstr = f" · banked ${reserve:,.0f}" if reserve else ""
drift = self.ledger_drift()
driftstr = f" · ⚠ LEDGER DRIFT ${drift:+.2f}" if abs(drift) > 0.01 else ""
gap = self.chain_cash_gap()
if gap is not None and abs(gap) > 1.0: # ≥$1: beyond fee/rounding float
driftstr += f" · ⚠ CASH≠CHAIN ${gap:+.2f}"
log(f"[{cycle}] open {n} · deployed ${exp:,.0f} · free ${cash:,.0f}/${bank:,.0f}"
f"{bankstr} · realized ${realized:+,.2f}{lagstr}{driftstr}"
+ (f" · CAN'T OPEN (free < ${stake:,.0f} stake — bets missed)"
@@ -739,6 +768,20 @@ class Copybot:
self.engine._handle_their_sell(
token, 0, 0, f"{pos.get('outcome','?')} · {pos.get('title','?')[:42]}")
self._drain_fills() # book the sell's cash + sold-leg
# LIVE_ROLLOUT 1.6 — a FAK sell on a thin book can fill 0 and
# the position silently rides to resolution. This pass re-fires
# every backstop poll; count the attempts and raise the alarm
# once it looks stuck (still held after N tries).
if token in mp:
att = self.engine.state.setdefault("exit_attempts", {})
att[token] = att.get(token, 0) + 1
if att[token] == 10:
self.engine.alert(
f"⚠ EXIT STUCK: {pos.get('title','?')[:42]} — "
f"{att[token]} mirror-exit attempts unfilled; "
f"check the book / exit manually in the UI.")
else:
self.engine.state.get("exit_attempts", {}).pop(token, None)
self.engine.persist()
def reconcile_entries(self):
@@ -986,6 +1029,16 @@ def load_cfg(path):
cfg = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG, **load_json(path, {})}
cfg["risk"] = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG["risk"], **cfg.get("risk", {})}
cfg["live"] = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG["live"], **cfg.get("live", {})}
# env overrides for the credentials (LIVE_ROLLOUT 1.2): the Fly worker
# clones the repo, and config.live.json is gitignored — secrets reach a
# cloud box as env vars only. Env wins over file so a deployed worker
# can't accidentally trade an old key from a stray config.
for env, key in (("LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY", "private_key"),
("LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS", "funder_address"),
("LIVE_SIGNATURE_TYPE", "signature_type")):
v = os.environ.get(env)
if v:
cfg["live"][key] = int(v) if key == "signature_type" else v
cfg["follow"] = {**FOLLOW_DEFAULT, **cfg.get("follow", {})}
normalize_follow_config(cfg)
# accept either "watchlist" (addresses) or "watch" ([{wallet,name}]); fill the gap
@@ -1042,6 +1095,26 @@ def main():
state = load_json(args.state, new_state())
redeemer = None
if want_live:
# LIVE_ROLLOUT 1.5 — the geo-gate is FATAL for real money: an
# unauthenticated dummy order separates geo-blocked (403 "restricted
# in your region") from allowed (auth/validation error). Paper mode
# only reads, so it merely warns (host/start.sh); live must refuse.
try:
req = urllib.request.Request(CLOB_API + "/order", method="POST",
data=b"{}", headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0",
"Content-Type": "application/json"})
urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=15, context=SSL_CTX)
geo_body = ""
except urllib.error.HTTPError as e:
geo_body = e.read().decode(errors="replace")[:200]
if e.code == 403 and "restricted" in geo_body.lower():
sys.exit("GEO-BLOCKED: this box cannot place Polymarket orders "
f"({geo_body[:100]}). Run from the Fly worker (Stockholm) "
"or an unrestricted country — see LIVE_ROLLOUT.md 0.1.")
except Exception as e:
sys.exit(f"geo-gate probe failed ({e}) — refusing to arm live "
"without a TRADABLE verdict (LIVE_ROLLOUT.md 0.1)")
log("geo-gate: TRADABLE — order endpoint reachable")
confirm_live(cfg)
executor = LedgerLiveExecutor(cfg) # FOK marketable orders + fill recording
if cfg.get("live", {}).get("auto_redeem", True):
live/discord_daily.py
+15 -5
View File
@@ -43,11 +43,21 @@ def main():
# --ping "text": one plain status line (used by daily.sh's start-of-run
# heads-up so the digest hours later isn't the only sign of life)
if len(sys.argv) > 2 and sys.argv[1] == "--ping":
try:
_post(hook, {"content": sys.argv[2]})
print("[discord] ping sent")
except Exception as e:
print("[discord] ping failed:", e)
# launchd WAKES the Mac to run daily.sh, and this heads-up ping is its
# first network call — DNS/WiFi is often not up yet in the first seconds
# after wake, so a single try fails instantly with getaddrinfo "nodename
# nor servname" (harmless: the end-of-run digest lands fine). Retry a few
# times with backoff to ride out the post-wake network gap.
for attempt in range(4):
try:
_post(hook, {"content": sys.argv[2]})
print("[discord] ping sent" + (f" (attempt {attempt + 1})" if attempt else ""))
return
except Exception as e:
if attempt == 3:
print("[discord] ping failed after retries:", e)
else:
time.sleep(5 * (attempt + 1)) # 5s, 10s, 15s — DNS usually up by 15s
return
try:
sharps = json.load(open(os.path.join(HERE, "watch_sharps.json")))