July live test: follow Kruto/shisan/fortuneking/LSB1; fee+lag backtest; 24/7 host runner
- portfolio.py: follow set -> the fee-aware copy-positive sharps (Kruto2027, shisan888, fortuneking) + LSB1; entries pay the 0.03 sports taker fee and a +0.5%/~90s lag haircut (entry_model); backfilled from June 1; feed exposes fee_rate/slip/lag_est_s/fees_paid and unreal uses true cost basis. - copybot.paper.json: same four wallets, p80 conviction floors from the cache (Kruto $123.08, shisan $704.33, fortuneking $970, LSB1 $231). Fresh $1k state committed separately by the bot - clean July book. - host/start.sh + nixpacks: turnkey 24/7 worker for Railway/Fly/VPS - clones with GITHUB_TOKEN, resumes the committed state, polls 60s, publishes state+feed+fills back through publish_feed. Replaces the Mac poller. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
Executable
+41
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
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#!/bin/bash
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# 24/7 copybot runner for an always-on host (Railway worker / Fly.io / any $5 VPS).
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#
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# Why a fresh clone: cloud build images usually ship the source WITHOUT .git, but
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# the bot persists its book by committing state + feed + fills back to GitHub
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# (copybot.publish_feed). Cloning at boot gives it a real repo, and the last
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# committed copybot_state.json — so the $1k book survives restarts and redeploys
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# with no volume attached.
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#
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# Required env:
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# GITHUB_TOKEN fine-grained PAT with Contents: read+write on
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# jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder (the push credential)
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# Optional env:
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# DISCORD_WEBHOOK ping on every placement
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# POLL_SECONDS poll cadence (default 60 — keep well under the bot's
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# 600s stale window so no trade is skipped)
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#
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# Railway setup (one time):
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# 1. New service -> Deploy from GitHub repo -> jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder
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# 2. Settings -> Deploy -> Custom Start Command: bash host/start.sh
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# 3. Variables -> add GITHUB_TOKEN (and DISCORD_WEBHOOK if wanted)
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# 4. No public networking needed (poll mode makes outbound calls only)
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# Then STOP the Mac poller so the book has one writer:
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# launchctl unload ~/Library/LaunchAgents/com.jaxperro.copybot.plist
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set -euo pipefail
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: "${GITHUB_TOKEN:?set GITHUB_TOKEN (PAT with repo contents read+write)}"
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REPO_URL="https://x-access-token:${GITHUB_TOKEN}@github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git"
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DIR="${COPYBOT_DIR:-/tmp/wwf}"
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rm -rf "$DIR"
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git clone --depth 20 "$REPO_URL" "$DIR"
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cd "$DIR"
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git config user.name "copybot[bot]"
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git config user.email "copybot@users.noreply.github.com"
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# paper config is committed (no secrets); state resumes from the last commit
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exec python3 copybot.py \
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--config live/copybot.paper.json \
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--state copybot_state.json \
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--poll "${POLL_SECONDS:-60}"
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+12
-12
@@ -4,24 +4,24 @@
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"bankroll_pct": 0.05,
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"price_guard_pct": 0.05,
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"watchlist": [
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"0xa1a77ea9382bb8c3610f3303b66e093f644aace4",
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"0x6d1a94f4bdd53114ec483925d025367db68697fb",
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"0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
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"0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543",
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"0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867",
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"0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41"
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],
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"watch": [
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{
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"wallet": "0xa1a77ea9382bb8c3610f3303b66e093f644aace4",
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"name": "raid3r"
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x6d1a94f4bdd53114ec483925d025367db68697fb",
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"name": "0x6d1A94f4"
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
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"name": "Kruto2027"
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543",
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"name": "shisan888"
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867",
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"name": "fortuneking"
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41",
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"name": "LSB1"
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@@ -31,9 +31,9 @@
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"buy_only": true,
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"min_their_usd": 25.0,
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"per_wallet_min_usd": {
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"0xa1a77ea9382bb8c3610f3303b66e093f644aace4": 33.98,
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"0x6d1a94f4bdd53114ec483925d025367db68697fb": 3.0,
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"0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 123.08,
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"0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543": 704.33,
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"0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867": 970.0,
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"0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 231.0
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},
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"min_entry": 0.0,
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+60
-30
@@ -11,8 +11,11 @@ which the dashboard reads in one request.
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Model: a $1,000 account that mirrors each followed wallet's CONVICTION bets (top-20%
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stake) at a flat $50, held to resolution (the cache has no sell events, which is the
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right model for the hold-to-resolution wallets we follow). One position per market
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(first wallet to enter wins the slot); when capital is fully deployed a bet is MISSED.
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right model for the hold-to-resolution wallets we follow). Entries pay the Polymarket
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taker fee and a lag-slippage price haircut (see FEE_RATE / SLIP / LAG_EST_S) so the
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book models what a real copier nets, not the idealized zero-cost mirror. One position
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per market (first wallet to enter wins the slot); when capital is fully deployed a bet
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is MISSED.
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Resolved history + realized P&L come from the cache; currently-open bets come from a
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small live /positions pull so the page can still show what's in flight.
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"""
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@@ -30,17 +33,37 @@ _SSL = ssl._create_unverified_context()
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HERE = os.path.dirname(__file__)
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BANK = 1000.0
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STAKE = 50.0
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START = time.mktime(time.strptime("2026-06-23", "%Y-%m-%d")) # forward test: started following 2026-06-23
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START = time.mktime(time.strptime("2026-06-01", "%Y-%m-%d")) # backfilled: replay from June 1
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GAMMA = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com"
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# ---- realism model (matches the live copybot) -------------------------------
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# Taker fee (Polymarket V2, since 2026-03-30): fee = shares·rate·p·(1−p); for a
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# flat-$STAKE buy that's STAKE·rate·(1−p). Sports 0.03 — the follow set's
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# category. Redeeming at resolution is fee-free, so only entries pay here
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# (hold-to-resolution model, no mirrored exits).
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FEE_RATE = 0.03
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# Copy lag: we enter LAG_EST_S after the wallet does, at a slightly worse price.
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# SLIP is the entry-price penalty estimate: the live bot measured +0.35% at ~5min
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# lag; a 60s poller should see less — 0.5% is a conservative flat haircut.
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LAG_EST_S = 90
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SLIP = 0.005
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# the followed wallets — single source of truth (dashboard renders names from the feed)
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WALLETS = [
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{"name": "raid3r", "wallet": "0xa1a77ea9382bb8c3610f3303b66e093f644aace4"},
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{"name": "0x6d1A94f4", "wallet": "0x6d1a94f4bdd53114ec483925d025367db68697fb"},
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{"name": "Kruto2027", "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb"},
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{"name": "LSB1", "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41"},
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{"name": "Kruto2027", "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb"},
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{"name": "shisan888", "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543"},
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{"name": "fortuneking", "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867"},
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{"name": "LSB1", "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41"},
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]
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def entry_model(p):
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"""(effective entry price, entry fee, total cash cost) of a flat-$STAKE copy:
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price worsened by the lag-slippage haircut, taker fee on top of the stake."""
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p_eff = min(0.999, p * (1 + SLIP))
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fee = STAKE * FEE_RATE * (1 - p_eff)
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return p_eff, fee, STAKE + fee
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_MKT = {}
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def market_meta(cond):
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"""Market title for display, from the CLOB market endpoint (gamma's condition_ids
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@@ -124,7 +147,8 @@ def main():
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cash = BANK
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realized = 0.0
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held = [] # (free_t, stake, payoff) payoff paid at free_t
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fees_paid = 0.0
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held = [] # (free_t, cost, payoff) cost = stake + entry fee; payoff paid at free_t
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perW = {w["wallet"]: {"name": w["name"], "wallet": w["wallet"], "bets": 0,
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"invested": 0.0, "realized": 0.0} for w in WALLETS}
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resolved, current, missed = [], [], []
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@@ -132,34 +156,37 @@ def main():
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def free(upto):
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nonlocal cash, realized
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keep = []
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for ft, stake, payoff, rec in held:
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for ft, cost, payoff, rec in held:
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if ft and ft <= upto and rec["kind"] == "res":
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cash += payoff; realized += payoff - stake; perW[rec["wallet"]]["realized"] += payoff - stake
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rec["pnl"] = payoff - stake
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cash += payoff; realized += payoff - cost; perW[rec["wallet"]]["realized"] += payoff - cost
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rec["pnl"] = payoff - cost
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resolved.append(rec)
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else:
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keep.append((ft, stake, payoff, rec))
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keep.append((ft, cost, payoff, rec))
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held[:] = keep
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for b in stream:
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free(b["entry_t"])
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if cash >= STAKE:
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cash -= STAKE; perW[b["wallet"]]["bets"] += 1
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shares = STAKE / b["p"]
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p_eff, fee, cost = entry_model(b["p"])
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if cash >= cost:
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cash -= cost; fees_paid += fee; perW[b["wallet"]]["bets"] += 1
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shares = STAKE / p_eff # lag-adjusted entry price
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if b["kind"] == "res":
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payoff = shares * (1.0 if b["won"] else 0.0)
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held.append((b["res_t"] or now, STAKE, payoff, b))
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payoff = shares * (1.0 if b["won"] else 0.0) # redeem is fee-free
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held.append((b["res_t"] or now, cost, payoff, b))
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else: # currently open -> mark to market, no free yet
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held.append((None, STAKE, 0.0, b))
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held.append((None, cost, 0.0, b))
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b["val"] = shares * b["cur"]; b["stake"] = STAKE
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else:
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missed.append(b)
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free(now)
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# finalize open (still held with kind==open): mark to market
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invested = 0.0
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for ft, stake, payoff, rec in held:
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open_cost = 0.0
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for ft, cost, payoff, rec in held:
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if rec["kind"] == "open":
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invested += rec["val"]; rec["pnl"] = rec["val"] - stake
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invested += rec["val"]; rec["pnl"] = rec["val"] - cost
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open_cost += cost
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perW[rec["wallet"]]["invested"] += rec["val"]
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current.append(rec)
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@@ -167,15 +194,16 @@ def main():
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resolved.sort(key=lambda r: r.get("res_t") or 0, reverse=True)
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for r in resolved[:60]:
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m = market_meta(r["cond"]); r["title"] = m["title"]
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# hypothetical P&L had we been able to afford it: resolved bets at their
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# outcome, still-open bets marked to the current price. Missed bets can be
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# kind=="open" (no "won"/"res_t" keys) — indexing m["won"] here used to
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# KeyError and kill the whole portfolio step the first time capital ran out
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# while a followed wallet had a live position.
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# hypothetical P&L had we been able to afford it — same fee + lag model as the
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# placed bets: resolved bets at their outcome, still-open bets marked to the
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# current price. Missed bets can be kind=="open" (no "won"/"res_t" keys) —
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# indexing m["won"] here used to KeyError and kill the whole portfolio step
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# the first time capital ran out while a followed wallet had a live position.
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def hypo_pnl(m):
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p_eff, fee, cost = entry_model(m["p"])
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if "won" in m:
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return STAKE * ((1.0 / m["p"]) - 1) if m["won"] else -STAKE
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return STAKE * (m.get("cur", m["p"]) / m["p"] - 1)
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return (STAKE / p_eff) - cost if m["won"] else -cost
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return STAKE * (m.get("cur", p_eff) / p_eff) - cost
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missed.sort(key=lambda m: m.get("res_t") or 0, reverse=True)
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for m in missed[:60]:
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@@ -192,9 +220,11 @@ def main():
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out = {
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"started": START, "updated": now,
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"bank": BANK, "stake": STAKE,
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"fee_rate": FEE_RATE, "slip": SLIP, "lag_est_s": LAG_EST_S,
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"fees_paid": round(fees_paid, 2),
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"equity": round(equity, 2), "liquid": round(cash, 2), "invested": round(invested, 2),
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"realized": round(realized, 2), "pnl": round(equity - BANK, 2),
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"unreal": round(invested - STAKE * len(current), 2),
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"unreal": round(invested - open_cost, 2),
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"resolved_count": len(resolved), "wins": wins, "losses": len(resolved) - wins,
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"open_count": len(current), "missed_count": len(missed),
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"wallets": [{"name": v["name"], "wallet": v["wallet"], "bets": v["bets"],
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@@ -214,8 +244,8 @@ def main():
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}
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json.dump(out, open(os.path.join(HERE, "portfolio.json"), "w"), separators=(",", ":"))
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print(f"portfolio: equity ${equity:,.0f} ({(equity-BANK)/BANK*100:+.0f}%) | realized ${realized:+,.0f} "
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f"| {len(resolved)} resolved ({wins}W/{len(resolved)-wins}L) | {len(current)} open "
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f"| {len(missed)} missed | -> portfolio.json", flush=True)
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f"| fees ${fees_paid:,.0f} | {len(resolved)} resolved ({wins}W/{len(resolved)-wins}L) "
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f"| {len(current)} open | {len(missed)} missed | -> portfolio.json", flush=True)
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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+7
-2
@@ -1,6 +1,11 @@
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# Explicit build config for Railway/Nixpacks (pure-stdlib Python service)
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# Explicit build config for Railway/Nixpacks (pure-stdlib Python service).
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# Default start = the Discord webhook receiver. For the 24/7 copybot worker,
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# deploy a second service from this repo and override the start command with
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# bash host/start.sh
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# (see host/start.sh for the full setup). git is needed at runtime — the bot
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# persists its book by committing state + feed back to GitHub.
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[phases.setup]
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nixPkgs = ["python311"]
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nixPkgs = ["python311", "git"]
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[start]
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cmd = "python3 webhook_receiver.py"
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Reference in New Issue
Block a user