P&L: fold abandoned losers into realized (anti-survivorship) — All-Time is the truth, not PM
Resolved-but-unredeemed positions (bets that lost, went to $0, never redeemed) were sitting in Open P&L, breaking the All-Time+Open=PM reconcile and — worse — hiding real losses. _open_split now routes decided positions (curPrice pinned 0/1) into the REALIZED total at their outcome, leaving only genuinely in-flight positions in Open P&L. This is the project's founding survivorship insight applied to P&L: PM /profit under-counts abandoned losers unevenly, so where our All-Time reads lower than PM, PM is biased and ours is honest. oliman2 $181k->$20k (walked from $161k of losers), JuiceFarm $380k->$32k; clean wallets unchanged (ewww1 $409k, KBO30 ~PM). Win% now counts abandoned losers too. Verified: Coteykens/imwalkinghere/KBO30 now ~PM; oliman2/JuiceFarm correctly far below their flattering PM. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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jaxperro
@@ -290,21 +290,25 @@ runner is retired (GitHub throttled `*/5` to ~2h in practice — it copied 1 of
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location doesn't relocate *you* (trade live from Colombia months, paper
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from US months).
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11. **All-Time / Conv P&L is the wallet's REALIZED track record** — the sum of
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Polymarket's own `realizedPnl` per closed position over the wallet's full
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history (`cache.closed_exits`, the incremental `/closed-positions` cache).
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It's what a copier mirroring their buy/sell/hold actually banks, and it
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equals the profile's **PM P&L** except for unrealized marks on positions
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still open. This *replaced* the old hold-to-resolution reconstruction
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(`won × entry × size`), which diverged from PM by up to 10× and even
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flipped signs — four bugs: a 2,000-row pull cap (fixed: full history),
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both-sides positions double-dropped by one-per-market dedup (fixed: each
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asset is its own realized row), `initialValue = 0` mis-sizing (moot —
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realized P&L needs no size), and corrupt near-epoch `res_t` (moot —
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realized cash is timestamp-independent). Win % is now the share of closed
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positions that *made money*, the mirror lens. (For wallets holding a large
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losing open book, realized > PM because PM marks the open losers in;
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that gap is unrealized, not an error.)
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11. **All-Time / Conv P&L is the wallet's ANTI-SURVIVORSHIP realized track
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record.** Every DECIDED position at its actual result: redeemed/sold closed
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positions (Polymarket's own `realizedPnl`, `cache.closed_exits`) PLUS
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resolved-but-unredeemed positions still sitting in `/positions` — bets that
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already won/lost and the wallet never redeemed (mostly **abandoned losers**
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at $0). `_open_split` in validate_timing pulls current positions and routes
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those decided ones into the realized total (`cashPnl` = their outcome),
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leaving only genuinely in-flight positions in the **Open P&L** column. This
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is the whole point of the project surfacing: PM `/profit` **under-counts
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abandoned losers**, unevenly — Coteykens' PM subtracts them (realized $66k −
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$52k walked-away = $14k = PM), oliman2's does not ($181k − $161k = $20k
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true, yet PM says $112k). So where our All-Time reads **lower** than PM, PM
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is the survivorship-biased number and **ours is the truth** (oliman2 and
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JuiceFarm look elite on redeemed-only P&L, ~$20k/$32k once the losers they
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walked from are counted). This *replaced* the old hold-to-resolution
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reconstruction (`won × entry × size`), which diverged by up to 10× and
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flipped signs — four bugs killed with it: the 2,000-row pull cap, both-sides
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double-drop, `initialValue = 0` mis-sizing, and corrupt near-epoch `res_t`.
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Win % is the share of decided positions that *made money*.
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---
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+35
-13
@@ -93,24 +93,41 @@ def _pm_profit(w):
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return None
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def _open_pnl(w):
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"""The wallet's OPEN (unrealized) P&L — sum of cashPnl over every current
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position, full paging (the endpoint caps at 50/page). This is the exposure
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sitting behind the realized track record: a wallet with a great All-Time
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(realized) P&L but a large NEGATIVE open book is selling winners and
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holding losers — the realized number flatters what you'd feel following
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them live. PM /profit marks this in; our realized All-Time P&L doesn't, so
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Open P&L is exactly the reconciling gap between them."""
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total = 0.0
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def _open_split(w):
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"""Split the wallet's current /positions into (open_pnl, resolved).
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open_pnl = unrealized P&L (cashPnl) over GENUINELY OPEN positions
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(interior price) — real in-flight exposure.
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resolved = decided-but-UNREDEEMED positions (curPrice pinned at 0 or 1):
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bets that already won/lost and the wallet just never redeemed.
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These are NOT open — they're realized outcomes hiding in the
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positions endpoint (mostly abandoned LOSERS at $0). They
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belong in the REALIZED track record (cashPnl = their decided
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P&L: a loser is -cost). Leaving them in "open" is the exact
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survivorship blind spot — PM /profit under-counts them, so a
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wallet's realized looks better than the bets it walked away
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from. Returned as [{realized_pnl, iv, ts}] to fold into
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All-Time P&L + win/loss.
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"""
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open_pnl = 0.0
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resolved = []
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for off in range(0, 100000, 50):
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pg = sm.get_json("/positions", {"user": w, "limit": 50, "offset": off,
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"sizeThreshold": 0})
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if not pg:
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break
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total += sum(p.get("cashPnl") or 0 for p in pg)
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for p in pg:
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cp = p.get("curPrice", 0) or 0
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cpnl = p.get("cashPnl") or 0
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if cp <= 0.001 or cp >= 0.999: # decided, just unredeemed
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resolved.append({"realized_pnl": cpnl,
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"iv": p.get("initialValue") or 0,
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"ts": p.get("timestamp") or 0})
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else:
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open_pnl += cpnl
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if len(pg) < 50:
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break
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return round(total)
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return round(open_pnl), resolved
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def _wp(cond, asset, won):
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@@ -177,7 +194,12 @@ def display_stats(w):
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scr_ += 1
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return won_, lost_, scr_, round(pnl)
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allpos = list(exits.values())
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# realized universe = redeemed/sold closed positions (exits, with realizedPnl)
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# PLUS decided-but-unredeemed positions (resolved losers/winners still sitting
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# in /positions). Folding the latter in is the anti-survivorship correction:
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# a wallet's true realized record includes the bets it walked away from.
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open_pnl, resolved_open = _open_split(w)
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allpos = list(exits.values()) + resolved_open
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all_won, all_lost, all_scr, all_pnl = rtally(allpos)
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# conviction = the wallet's top-20%-by-stake positions (iv); conv30 = those
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# closed in the last 30d. Realized P&L over each set.
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@@ -199,7 +221,7 @@ def display_stats(w):
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"all_win": round(100 * all_won / (all_won + all_lost), 1) if (all_won + all_lost) else None,
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"all_won": all_won, "all_lost": all_lost, "all_ref": all_scr,
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"all_sold": 0, "all_pnl": all_pnl,
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"open_pnl": _open_pnl(w),
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"open_pnl": open_pnl, # genuinely in-flight only (resolved folded into realized)
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"pm_pnl": _pm_profit(w),
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"avg_bet": round(sum(e["iv"] for e in conv) / len(conv)) if conv else 0,
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"copy_pnl": 0, "held_pnl": 0, "held_won": 0, "held_lost": 0, "sold": 0,
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