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valuebot: paper V0 — sub-2¢ portfolio, honest FAK fills, chain settles, own Fly app (VALUE silo)

Browse Source 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
2026-07-16 23:09:46 -04:00
parent 8af582fc86
commit 86ba267156
8 changed files with 624 additions and 0 deletions
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fly.value.toml
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# wwf-valuebot — the VALUE silo's own Fly app (value/PLAN.md). No http_service:
# nothing probes it, nothing auto-restarts it under a state surgery.
app = "wwf-valuebot"
primary_region = "arn"
[build]
dockerfile = "value/fly.Dockerfile"
[[restart]]
policy = "always"
[[vm]]
size = "shared-cpu-1x"
memory = "256mb"
tests/test_valuebot.py
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"""Stub tests for the value paper bot (value/PLAN.md V0): honest FAK fill
model, event cap, cooldown, refund-aware chain settlement. No network.
Run: python3 tests/test_valuebot.py
"""
import os
import sys
import time
sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)),
"..", "value"))
import valuebot as vb # noqa: E402
vb.STATE = "/tmp/vb_test_state.json"
vb.FILLS = "/tmp/vb_test_fills.jsonl"
vb.FEED = "/tmp/vb_test_feed.json"
fails = []
def case(name):
def deco(fn):
ba0, op0 = vb.book_asks, vb.onchain_payouts
for f in (vb.STATE, vb.FILLS, vb.FEED):
if os.path.exists(f):
os.remove(f)
try:
fn()
print(f"PASS {name}")
except AssertionError as e:
print(f"FAIL {name}: {e}")
fails.append(name)
finally:
vb.book_asks, vb.onchain_payouts = ba0, op0
return deco
def cand(tok, event="ev-2026-07-17", mark=0.01):
return {"token": tok, "outcome": "Yes", "mark": mark, "cond": "0xc" + tok,
"title": f"mkt {tok}", "end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", # already past
"cat": "esports", "event": event, "tok_index": 0, "n_outcomes": 2}
@case("fill model: walks the ladder inside the band, honest miss when thin")
def t1():
# $1 at 1c needs 100 shares; 60 at 0.010 + 50 at 0.0104 (inside 1.05 band)
sh, px, r = vb.model_fill([(0.010, 60), (0.0104, 50)], 1.0, 0.02)
assert r is None and abs(sh - (0.6/0.010 + 0.4/0.0104)) < 1e-6
# thin: only $0.30 inside the band -> MISS
sh, px, r = vb.model_fill([(0.010, 30), (0.02, 1000)], 1.0, 0.02)
assert sh is None and "FAK no-match" in r, r
# best ask above the bucket -> not a candidate
sh, px, r = vb.model_fill([(0.03, 1000)], 1.0, 0.02)
assert sh is None and "above" in r
# empty/failed book
assert vb.model_fill([], 1.0, 0.02)[2] == "no asks on the book"
assert vb.model_fill(None, 1.0, 0.02)[2] == "book fetch failed"
@case("band: a 1.9c best ask does NOT walk into 2.5c levels")
def t2():
sh, px, r = vb.model_fill([(0.019, 30), (0.025, 1000)], 1.0, 0.02)
assert sh is None, "walked past min(MAX_PX, best*1.05)"
@case("event cap 1: second ticket on the same event is skipped")
def t3():
st = vb.load_state()
vb.book_asks = lambda tok: [(0.01, 1000)]
vb.open_positions(st, [cand("A", "ev-2026-07-17"),
cand("B", "ev-2026-07-17"),
cand("C", "other-2026-07-18")], budget=10)
assert set(st["my_pos"]) == {"A", "C"}, set(st["my_pos"])
assert st["stats"]["fills"] == 2 and st["stats"]["attempts"] == 2
@case("cooldown: a missed token is not re-checked inside COOLDOWN_S")
def t4():
st = vb.load_state()
vb.book_asks = lambda tok: [(0.01, 10)] # thin -> miss
vb.open_positions(st, [cand("A")], budget=10)
assert st["stats"]["misses"] == 1
vb.open_positions(st, [cand("A")], budget=10) # immediately again
assert st["stats"]["attempts"] == 1, "re-attempted inside cooldown"
@case("settle: win pays full, refund pays 0.5, loss pays 0 — cash exact")
def t5():
st = vb.load_state()
vb.book_asks = lambda tok: [(0.01, 1000)]
for t_ in ("W", "R", "L"):
vb.open_positions(st, [cand(t_, event=t_)], budget=10)
cash_after_open = st["cash"]
vecs = {"0xcW": [1.0, 0.0], "0xcR": [0.5, 0.5], "0xcL": [0.0, 1.0]}
vb.onchain_payouts = lambda cond, rpc: vecs[cond]
vb.settle(st, rpc="stub", budget=10)
s = st["stats"]
assert (s["wins"], s["refunds"], s["losses"]) == (1, 1, 1)
sh = 1.0 / 0.01
assert abs(st["cash"] - (cash_after_open + sh*1.0 + sh*0.5)) < 1e-6
assert not st["my_pos"]
@case("unresolved market stays open; feed math consistent")
def t6():
st = vb.load_state()
vb.book_asks = lambda tok: [(0.01, 1000)]
vb.open_positions(st, [cand("A")], budget=10)
vb.onchain_payouts = lambda cond, rpc: None # denominator 0
vb.settle(st, rpc="stub", budget=10)
assert "A" in st["my_pos"] and st["stats"]["resolved"] == 0
feed = vb.write_feed(st)
assert feed["open_count"] == 1 and feed["deployed"] == 1.0
assert feed["fill_rate"] == 1.0
print()
print("FAILURES:", fails or "none")
sys.exit(1 if fails else 0)
value/fly.Dockerfile
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# wwf-valuebot — VALUE silo image. Deliberately separate from the copybot's
# fly.Dockerfile: valuebot is pure stdlib, so this never needs to move when
# the copybot's SDK pins change (and vice versa).
FROM python:3.12-slim
RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y --no-install-recommends git ca-certificates \
&& rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/*
COPY value/start.sh /start.sh
RUN chmod +x /start.sh
CMD ["/bin/bash", "/start.sh"]
value/start.sh
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#!/bin/bash
# Boot for the wwf-valuebot Fly worker (VALUE silo — value/PLAN.md).
# Clones main fresh (public read; GITHUB_TOKEN enables state pushes),
# verifies the clone against ls-remote (stale-replica guard, same lesson as
# the copybot's), then runs the paper bot. No HTTP service on purpose: no
# health-check auto-restarts to race a state surgery (README gotcha 15).
set -e
REPO="github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git"
DIR=/tmp/wwf
for i in 1 2 3 4; do
rm -rf "$DIR"
if [ -n "${GITHUB_TOKEN:-}" ]; then
git clone -q --depth 1 "https://x-access-token:${GITHUB_TOKEN}@${REPO}" "$DIR"
else
git clone -q --depth 1 "https://${REPO}" "$DIR"
fi
HEAD=$(git -C "$DIR" rev-parse HEAD)
REMOTE=$(git ls-remote "https://${REPO}" HEAD | cut -f1)
if [ "$HEAD" = "$REMOTE" ]; then
echo "[clone-guard] clone verified @ ${HEAD:0:10}"
break
fi
echo "[clone-guard] stale clone ($HEAD != $REMOTE) — retry $i"
sleep 5
done
cd "$DIR"
git config user.email "valuebot@wwf" && git config user.name "wwf-valuebot"
[ -z "${GITHUB_TOKEN:-}" ] && echo "⚠ no GITHUB_TOKEN — feed publishing will fail (paper book not durable across restarts)"
exec python3 -u value/valuebot.py
value/valuebot.json
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value/valuebot.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""VALUE paper bot — systematic sub-2¢ portfolio (value/PLAN.md, strategy V0).
SILO RULES (user directive 2026-07-17): this file must not import copybot.py
or copytrade.py, share no state/feed/webhook/wallet with the copy trader, and
touch only value/* paths. The ~60 lines of book/fee/payout helpers are
DUPLICATED here on purpose — total blast-radius isolation is worth it.
The strategy is a law-of-large-numbers portfolio: every active market with an
ask ≤ 2¢ is a candidate; stake is flat $1 (the venue minimum — reality, not
choice); positions hold to resolution and settle at CHAIN truth (payout
vectors — 0.5 refunds are real). The calibration study says such entries
resolved ~1.24x their price; the ONE thing history can't say is whether the
fills exist, so the fill model is brutally honest (2026-07-16 parity lesson):
a candidate with less than $1 of asks inside the protected band is a MISS,
never a pretend fill.
Run: python3 value/valuebot.py --once # one scan cycle, no publishing
python3 value/valuebot.py # loop (Fly worker; publishes feed)
"""
import argparse
import calendar
import json
import os
import re
import ssl
import subprocess
import time
import urllib.request
HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
REPO = os.path.dirname(HERE)
SSL_CTX = ssl._create_unverified_context()
GAMMA = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com"
CLOB = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
CTF = "0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045"
_SEL_DEN = "0xdd34de67" # payoutDenominator(bytes32)
_SEL_NUM = "0x0504c814" # payoutNumerators(bytes32,uint256)
STATE = os.path.join(HERE, "valuebot_state.json")
FEED = os.path.join(HERE, "valuebot.json")
FILLS = os.path.join(HERE, "valuebot_fills.jsonl")
BANK = 1000.0 # paper bankroll
STAKE = 1.0 # flat, = venue minimum (reality)
MAX_PX = 0.02 # the studied bucket boundary
BAND = 1.05 # protected band: ask*(1+5%), like the live executor
MAX_OPEN = 300 # portfolio cap -> max $300 deployed
SCAN_S = 300
BOOK_BUDGET = 60 # CLOB book fetches per cycle (be a good citizen)
SETTLE_BUDGET = 40 # payout-vector checks per cycle
COOLDOWN_S = 6 * 3600 # re-look at a skipped/missed token after 6h
FEED_PUSH_MIN_S = 300
MISS_KEEP = 500 # ledger rows kept in state (totals never truncate)
# Fee Structure V2 rates by category keyword (entry side only — redeem is free)
FEE_RATES = [("crypto", 0.07), ("sport", 0.03), ("esport", 0.03),
("finance", 0.04), ("politic", 0.04), ("tech", 0.04),
("geopolit", 0.0)]
FEE_DEFAULT = 0.05
def log(m):
print(f"{time.strftime('%H:%M:%S')} {m}", flush=True)
def get_json(url, timeout=15):
req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"})
with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=timeout, context=SSL_CTX) as r:
return json.loads(r.read().decode())
def fee_rate(category):
c = (category or "").lower()
for k, r in FEE_RATES:
if k in c:
return r
return FEE_DEFAULT
def taker_fee(shares, price, rate):
return shares * rate * price * (1.0 - price)
def event_key(slug):
"""Correlation group: sub-split slugs collapse to their date prefix (the
copy book learned this the hard way — one game, six markets)."""
m = re.match(r"(.*?\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})", slug or "")
return m.group(1) if m else (slug or None)
# ── market data ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def scan_universe(max_pages=60):
"""Active gamma markets with any outcome priced ≤ MAX_PX. Yields candidate
dicts. outcomePrices is gamma's own mark — cheap prefilter only; the CLOB
book is the truth a fill model is allowed to use."""
out, offset = [], 0
for _ in range(max_pages):
try:
# soonest-ending first: the calibration edge concentrates at short
# time-to-resolution, so the book budget goes there before the
# 2028-politics dust the default page order surfaces
page = get_json(f"{GAMMA}/markets?active=true&closed=false"
f"&order=endDate&ascending=true"
f"&end_date_min={time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}"
f"&limit=100&offset={offset}")
except Exception as e:
log(f"gamma page {offset} failed: {str(e)[:60]}")
break
if not page:
break
for m in page:
try:
prices = [float(x) for x in json.loads(m.get("outcomePrices") or "[]")]
toks = json.loads(m.get("clobTokenIds") or "[]")
outs = json.loads(m.get("outcomes") or "[]")
except Exception:
continue
if len(prices) != len(toks) or not toks:
continue
for i, px in enumerate(prices):
if 0.0 < px <= MAX_PX:
ev = (m.get("events") or [{}])[0]
out.append({
"token": toks[i], "outcome": outs[i] if i < len(outs) else "?",
"mark": px, "cond": m.get("conditionId"),
"title": m.get("question") or "",
"end": m.get("endDate"), "cat": m.get("category")
or ev.get("category") or "",
"event": event_key(ev.get("slug") or m.get("slug")),
"tok_index": i, "n_outcomes": len(toks)})
offset += 100
if len(page) < 100:
break
return out
def book_asks(token):
"""Ask ladder [(price, size)] cheapest-first, or None on failure."""
try:
b = get_json(f"{CLOB}/book?token_id={token}", timeout=8)
asks = sorted(((float(a["price"]), float(a["size"]))
for a in b.get("asks") or []), key=lambda x: x[0])
return asks
except Exception:
return None
def model_fill(asks, stake, max_px, band=BAND):
"""Walk the real ask ladder inside min(max_px, best_ask*band); a FAK for
`stake` dollars either fully fills inside the band or is an honest MISS
(None, reason). Returns (shares, avg_price, None) on fill."""
if asks is None:
return None, None, "book fetch failed"
if not asks:
return None, None, "no asks on the book"
best = asks[0][0]
if best > max_px:
return None, None, f"best ask {best:.3f} above {max_px:.2f}"
cap = min(max_px, round(best * band, 6))
usd, shares = 0.0, 0.0
for px, sz in asks:
if px > cap:
break
take_usd = min(stake - usd, px * sz)
shares += take_usd / px
usd += take_usd
if usd >= stake - 1e-9:
return shares, usd / shares, None
return None, None, (f"only ${usd:.2f} of asks inside the band "
f"(cap {cap:.3f}) — FAK no-match")
# ── chain-truth settlement ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _rpc_url():
url = os.environ.get("ALCHEMY_RPC_URL")
if url:
return url
try:
k = json.load(open(os.path.join(REPO, "config.json"))).get("alchemy_key")
return f"https://polygon-mainnet.g.alchemy.com/v2/{k}" if k else None
except Exception:
return None
def onchain_payouts(cond, rpc):
"""[p0, p1, ...] in the market's token order, or None if unresolved.
Denominator 0 = not resolved; [0.5, 0.5] refunds are REAL payouts."""
if not (rpc and cond):
return None
def call(data):
body = json.dumps({"jsonrpc": "2.0", "id": 1, "method": "eth_call",
"params": [{"to": CTF, "data": data}, "latest"]}).encode()
req = urllib.request.Request(rpc, data=body,
headers={"Content-Type": "application/json"})
with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=15, context=SSL_CTX) as r:
return json.loads(r.read())["result"]
try:
c = cond[2:].rjust(64, "0")
den = int(call(_SEL_DEN + c), 16)
if not den:
return None
n = 2
return [int(call(_SEL_NUM + c + hex(i)[2:].rjust(64, "0")), 16) / den
for i in range(n)]
except Exception:
return None
# ── the bot ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def load_state():
try:
return json.load(open(STATE))
except Exception:
return {"cash": BANK, "my_pos": {}, "resolved": [], "missed": [],
"attempted": {}, "stats": {"attempts": 0, "fills": 0,
"misses": 0, "resolved": 0, "wins": 0, "refunds": 0,
"losses": 0, "staked": 0.0, "returned": 0.0, "fees": 0.0},
"started": int(time.time())}
def save_state(st):
json.dump(st, open(STATE, "w"))
def open_positions(st, cands, budget):
"""Try to open new $1 tickets, honest-fill-model, event cap 1."""
held_events = {p.get("event") for p in st["my_pos"].values() if p.get("event")}
now = time.time()
checked = 0
for c in cands:
if checked >= budget or len(st["my_pos"]) >= MAX_OPEN:
break
tok = c["token"]
if tok in st["my_pos"]:
continue
if now - st["attempted"].get(tok, 0) < COOLDOWN_S:
continue
if c["event"] and c["event"] in held_events:
continue # correlated dust resolves together
if st["cash"] < STAKE:
log("CAN'T OPEN — cash exhausted (portfolio at size)")
break
st["attempted"][tok] = now
checked += 1
st["stats"]["attempts"] += 1
shares, px, reason = model_fill(book_asks(tok), STAKE, MAX_PX)
if reason:
st["stats"]["misses"] += 1
st["missed"].append({"ts": int(now), "token": tok, "mark": c["mark"],
"title": c["title"][:60], "reason": reason})
st["missed"] = st["missed"][-MISS_KEEP:]
continue
rate = fee_rate(c["cat"])
fee = taker_fee(shares, px, rate)
st["cash"] -= STAKE + fee
st["stats"]["fills"] += 1
st["stats"]["staked"] += STAKE
st["stats"]["fees"] += fee
st["my_pos"][tok] = {"shares": shares, "cost": STAKE, "fee": round(fee, 6),
"price": round(px, 6), "cond": c["cond"],
"title": c["title"][:80], "outcome": c["outcome"],
"event": c["event"], "end": c["end"],
"tok_index": c["tok_index"], "opened": int(now)}
held_events.add(c["event"])
with open(FILLS, "a") as fh:
fh.write(json.dumps({"ts": int(now), "side": "BUY", "token": tok,
"shares": round(shares, 4), "price": round(px, 6),
"fee": round(fee, 6), "title": c["title"][:60]}) + "\n")
log(f"OPEN {shares:,.0f} sh @ {px:.4f} (${STAKE}) · {c['title'][:50]}")
# prune the cooldown map so state can't grow unbounded
st["attempted"] = {t: ts for t, ts in st["attempted"].items()
if now - ts < 2 * COOLDOWN_S}
def settle(st, rpc, budget):
"""Chain-truth settlement for positions past their end date."""
now = time.time()
done = 0
for tok, p in list(st["my_pos"].items()):
if done >= budget:
break
end = p.get("end")
try:
# gamma endDate is UTC — timegm, NOT mktime (repo lesson: mktime
# assumes local and shifts settles by the box's UTC offset)
end_ts = calendar.timegm(time.strptime(end[:19], "%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S")) if end else 0
except Exception:
end_ts = 0
if end_ts and now < end_ts - 300:
continue # not due yet
vec = onchain_payouts(p["cond"], rpc)
done += 1
if vec is None:
continue # unresolved — try next cycle
idx = min(p.get("tok_index", 0), len(vec) - 1)
payout = vec[idx] * p["shares"]
st["cash"] += payout
s = st["stats"]
s["resolved"] += 1
s["returned"] += payout
kind = ("refund" if 0 < vec[idx] < 1 else
"win" if vec[idx] >= 1 else "loss")
s["wins" if kind == "win" else "refunds" if kind == "refund" else "losses"] += 1
st["resolved"].append({"ts": int(now), "token": tok, "price": p["price"],
"cost": p["cost"], "payout": round(payout, 4),
"kind": kind, "title": p["title"][:60]})
st["resolved"] = st["resolved"][-MISS_KEEP:]
del st["my_pos"][tok]
log(f"SETTLE {kind.upper()} {payout:+.2f} · entered {p['price']:.4f} · "
f"{p['title'][:50]}")
def write_feed(st):
s = st["stats"]
deployed = sum(p["cost"] for p in st["my_pos"].values())
mult = (s["returned"] / s["staked"]) if s["staked"] else None
# break-even multiple is 1 + fee drag; the study's promise was ~1.24x
feed = {"mode": "paper-value", "bank": BANK, "cash": round(st["cash"], 2),
"deployed": round(deployed, 2), "open_count": len(st["my_pos"]),
"stats": s, "realized_multiple": round(mult, 4) if mult else None,
"fill_rate": round(s["fills"] / s["attempts"], 4) if s["attempts"] else None,
"recent_resolved": st["resolved"][-40:], "recent_missed": st["missed"][-40:],
"open": [{"t": p["title"], "px": p["price"], "out": p["outcome"],
"end": p.get("end")} for p in list(st["my_pos"].values())[:60]],
"updated": int(time.time())}
json.dump(feed, open(FEED, "w"))
return feed
def publish(last_push):
"""Commit value/* only. Same pull-rebase-push discipline as the books."""
if time.time() - last_push < FEED_PUSH_MIN_S:
return last_push
try:
subprocess.run(["git", "add", "value/valuebot_state.json",
"value/valuebot.json", "value/valuebot_fills.jsonl"],
cwd=REPO, check=True, capture_output=True)
r = subprocess.run(["git", "diff", "--cached", "--quiet"], cwd=REPO)
if r.returncode == 0:
return last_push
subprocess.run(["git", "commit", "-q", "-m",
"valuebot: paper feed [skip ci]"], cwd=REPO, check=True,
capture_output=True)
subprocess.run(["git", "pull", "--rebase", "--autostash", "-q"],
cwd=REPO, capture_output=True)
subprocess.run(["git", "push", "-q"], cwd=REPO, check=True,
capture_output=True, timeout=60)
return time.time()
except Exception as e:
log(f"publish failed (non-fatal): {str(e)[:70]}")
return last_push
def cycle(st, rpc, publish_feed=False, last_push=0.0):
cands = scan_universe()
log(f"universe: {len(cands)} sub-{MAX_PX:.0%} candidates")
settle(st, rpc, SETTLE_BUDGET)
open_positions(st, cands, BOOK_BUDGET)
save_state(st)
feed = write_feed(st)
s = st["stats"]
log(f"book: cash ${st['cash']:,.2f} · open {len(st['my_pos'])} · "
f"fills {s['fills']}/{s['attempts']} · resolved {s['resolved']} "
f"({s['wins']}W/{s['losses']}L/{s['refunds']}R) · "
f"multiple {feed['realized_multiple']}")
if publish_feed:
last_push = publish(last_push)
return last_push
def main():
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--once", action="store_true", help="one cycle, no publish")
args = ap.parse_args()
rpc = _rpc_url()
log(f"valuebot · paper · chain settle {'ON' if rpc else 'OFF (no RPC!)'}")
st = load_state()
if args.once:
cycle(st, rpc, publish_feed=False)
return
last_push = 0.0
while True:
try:
last_push = cycle(st, rpc, publish_feed=True, last_push=last_push)
except Exception as e:
log(f"cycle error: {str(e)[:100]}")
time.sleep(SCAN_S)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
value/valuebot_fills.jsonl
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