LIVE_ROLLOUT.md: phased real-money integration plan, executable by a fresh session
Phase 0 invariants (geo, single-writer, chain truth, ledger, caps) -> Phase 1 code prep (feed separation, env secrets, worker deps, on-chain cash anchor, fatal geocheck, exit retries, config sync, dashboard section) -> funding (user-only) -> preflight/dry-run -> supervised first fill -> full edge-case matrix (buy/add/sell/win/loss/refund/missed/downtime/ FAK-no-fill/neg-risk/withdraw) -> wind-down + graduation gate. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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# Real-money rollout plan — executable by a fresh agent session
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Written 2026-07-07 after the pre-money audit. This document is **self-contained**:
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a session with no prior context (Sonnet/Opus) should be able to execute every
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phase from here + the repo. Read [README.md](README.md) gotchas 1–11 and
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[LIVE_TEST.md](LIVE_TEST.md) first. Project memory (`polymarket-resolution-truth`,
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`polymarket-us-expansion`) has deeper background; the repo is authoritative.
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**The goal:** a supervised minimum-size live test — deposit → copy a followed
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bet → mirror a sell before resolution → hold to resolution (win, loss, AND
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50/50 refund) → withdraw — with worst-case loss bounded by the ~$30 exposure
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cap. Only after every edge case in Phase 5 passes does sizing-up get discussed.
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---
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## Phase 0 — invariants (read, don't skip)
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These were each earned the hard way. Violating any of them voids the test.
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| # | invariant | why |
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|---|-----------|-----|
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| 0.1 | **Live orders only from a geo-TRADABLE box.** `python3 host/geocheck.py` must print `VERDICT: TRADABLE`. The Fly worker (`wwf-copybot`, Stockholm) passes; a Mac in the US gets 403-geo-blocked on the order POST. | Polymarket IP-blocks order placement (README gotcha 10). |
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| 0.2 | **The user decides WHEN to arm** (jurisdictional posture: they trade live from Colombia months, paper from US months). The agent prepares everything; the arming step and its timing are user-only. | The machine's location doesn't relocate the person. |
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| 0.3 | **One writer per book.** The live book uses its own state (`copybot_state.live.json`) and must use its own feed file (Phase 1.1 — today both modes write `live/copybot_live.json`, which would clobber the July paper test's dashboard). The paper worker keeps running untouched throughout. | The paper July test is the control group; don't contaminate it. |
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| 0.4 | **Settlement truth is the chain.** CLOB `winner` flags never populate for operator-resolved in-play markets, and 50/50 refunds (28% of follow-set markets!) pay $0.50/share. `resolution_price()` in copybot.py already does CLOB→chain-payout tiering; live mode requires `ALCHEMY_RPC_URL` set or refunded/operator-resolved positions never settle. | 2026-07-06 audit: 4 positions sat locked for hours. |
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| 0.5 | **The ledger must reconcile to the cent.** `ledger_drift` in the feed must stay 0.00; in live mode it additionally must match the on-chain USDC balance (Phase 1.4). Any drift >1¢ = stop, diagnose, fix before the next order. | Real money makes bookkeeping bugs unrecoverable. |
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| 0.6 | **Hard caps stay at test size until Phase 6.** `config.live.json` risk block: $5/trade, $5/position, $25/day, $30 exposure, 6 open, prices 0.05–0.95, FAK orders. Never raise mid-test. | Worst case ≈ the $30 exposure cap. |
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| 0.7 | **Paper-mode safety interlocks stay intact**: live needs `mode:"live"` + `--live` + typed phrase. Never bypass, never automate the phrase. | The phrase is the human checkpoint. |
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---
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## Phase 1 — code prep (agent; all verifiable in paper mode, no money)
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Each item is a small PR-sized change with its own verification. Do them in order.
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### 1.1 Feed separation
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`copybot.py` `FEED` is a module constant (`live/copybot_live.json`) — a live run
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overwrites the paper feed. Make it config-driven: `cfg.get("feed_path",
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"live/copybot_live.json")`, and set `"feed_path": "live/copybot_live_real.json"`
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in `config.live.json`. Same for `FILL_LOG` → `copybot_fills.live.jsonl`.
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**Verify:** run paper poll-once with a scratch config setting `feed_path`; confirm
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the alternate file is written and `live/copybot_live.json` is untouched.
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### 1.2 Secrets via env for the worker path
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`config.live.json` is gitignored — the Fly worker clones the repo and won't have
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it. Extend `load_cfg`/`normalize_follow_config` so `LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY`,
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`LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS`, `LIVE_SIGNATURE_TYPE` env vars override `cfg["live"]`.
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**Verify:** unit-style: `LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY=0xdead python3 -c "…load_cfg…"` shows
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the override; no secret ever printed or committed.
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### 1.3 Live deps in the worker image
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`fly.Dockerfile` is stdlib-only. Add `pip install py-clob-client web3` (pin
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versions) — needed for `LedgerLiveExecutor` + `redeem.py`. Keep the paper path
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import-lazy (it already is: LiveExecutor imports inside `__init__`).
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**Verify:** `flyctl deploy --remote-only`, then
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`flyctl ssh console -C "python3 -c 'import py_clob_client, web3'"` exits 0, and
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the paper bot still boots clean (banner + heartbeat, drift 0.00).
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### 1.4 Live-mode ledger anchor: on-chain balance check
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In live mode, `summary()` should each heartbeat compare `state["cash"]` against
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the CLOB collateral balance (`client.get_balance_allowance`, cached ≥60s) and
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log `⚠ CASH≠CHAIN` when they diverge by more than pending-order float. This is
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the real-money version of `ledger_drift`.
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**Verify:** code-review level only until Phase 4 (needs a funded account);
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assert the check is skipped cleanly in paper mode.
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### 1.5 Geocheck fatal in live mode
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`host/start.sh` warns on geo-block but continues (fine for paper). In
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`copybot.py` main(): if `want_live` and a fresh `geocheck` probe (import the
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3-probe logic or shell out) is not TRADABLE → `sys.exit`. Never place a live
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order from a blocked box.
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**Verify:** from the (US) Mac, `--live` with a filled dummy key must refuse with
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the geo message before the confirmation phrase.
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### 1.6 Exit-order resilience
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Mirror-sells use marketable FAK. On a thin in-play book a sell may fill 0 and
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the engine just logs ORDER FAILED — the position then silently rides to
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resolution. Add bounded retry: on a failed/partial SELL, retry next heartbeat
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(up to N=10 attempts, logged each time), then alert `⚠ EXIT STUCK` to Discord.
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**Verify:** paper-mode unit: monkeypatch executor.sell to fail twice then
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succeed; position exits on third heartbeat, sold-leg accounting intact.
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### 1.7 Sync `config.live.json` follow set
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It still lists `shisan888` (long gone). Copy the current `wallets` list +
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pinned floors from `live/copybot.paper.json` (post-demotion: all volume class,
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Stavenson/0x4bFb/ArbTrader pinned at $4,760/$1,090/$168), keep the $5 caps and
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`bankroll_pct` small (0.02 ≈ $5 stakes on a $250 book — recompute so
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`bankroll_pct × bankroll_usd ≈ $5`).
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**Verify:** `./live/deploy_bot.sh`-style preview: `python3 -c` validation prints
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8 wallets and the caps unchanged.
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### 1.8 Dashboard: live-money section
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The dashboard reads `live/copybot_live_real.json` (from 1.1) into a fourth
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board chip + tables, clearly labeled REAL MONEY, reusing the standardized
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columns (Their/Our Entry, Stake, Result W/L/R/S, Placed/Settled). Statuses and
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the `ledger_drift`/`adjustments` fields render like the paper section.
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**Verify:** point it at a copy of the paper feed with `"mode":"live"`; preview
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renders; then empty-state renders when the file 404s (live test not started).
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**Phase-1 exit criteria:** all verifications green; paper bot untouched and
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heartbeating (`flyctl logs`); `git push` after each item; the July paper feed
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never skipped a beat.
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---
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## Phase 2 — account + funding (USER ONLY — agent stops here until told)
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Follow [LIVE_TEST.md](LIVE_TEST.md) §1–2, with these updates:
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1. Dedicated Polymarket account (email login recommended → `signature_type: 1`).
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**Deposit through the Polymarket UI** (~$50 USDC) so the collateral token is
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whatever the venue expects — do not send tokens directly on-chain (USDC vs
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USDC.e confusion is a real loss mode).
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2. Export the private key (Settings → Export private key). Fill
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`config.live.json` `live.private_key` + `live.funder_address` (profile
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deposit address). The file is gitignored; keep it that way.
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3. Send ~1 POL to the **signing EOA address** (preflight prints it) for redeem
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gas. Skipping this = set `live.auto_redeem: false` and redeem manually.
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4. Decide the venue box (0.1/0.2): **recommended = the Fly worker** (geo-clean,
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push-speed). Running on the Mac requires being in an unrestricted country.
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---
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## Phase 3 — preflight + dry runs (agent, with user watching)
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1. `python3 preflight_live.py` — all green (auth, USDC balance, book access,
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POL gas). Fix reds before proceeding.
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2. `python3 copybot.py --config config.live.json --state /tmp/dry.json
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--test-wallet <an active follow-set wallet>` — paper-mode routing of a real
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trade through filter+engine. Confirms config/filters without orders.
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3. If running on Fly: `flyctl secrets set LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY=… LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS=…`
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(values piped, never echoed), plus a **separate Fly app or process group**
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decision: do NOT convert the paper worker — run a second app `wwf-copybot-live`
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from the same image with `mode:"live"` env config, so paper and live books
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never share a process. Update the Alchemy webhook? No — live app runs
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**poll mode (60s)** for the test; push webhooks stay pointed at the paper app.
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Poll lag ≈ 39s avg was measured fine.
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4. Baseline sanity: live app boots, logs `on-chain settle fallback: ON`,
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`geocheck TRADABLE`, prints caps, **waits at the confirmation phrase** —
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which only the user types (via `flyctl ssh console` attach or Mac run).
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**Abort at any point:** Ctrl-C / `flyctl apps stop wwf-copybot-live`. Nothing
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is armed until the phrase is typed; nothing is at risk beyond the deposit.
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---
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## Phase 4 — first fill (supervised)
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Arm during a liquid window (evening EU/US — ITF + esports flow). Then wait for
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the first conviction signal. For the FIRST fill, verify every link end to end:
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- [ ] console `FOLLOW …` line → `OPEN … [LIVE] buy` with order id
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- [ ] fill appears in `copybot_fills.live.jsonl` with lag + slippage
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- [ ] position visible in the Polymarket UI (the account actually holds it)
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- [ ] feed `live/copybot_live_real.json` row status `open`; dashboard renders it
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- [ ] `state.cash` dropped by cost+fee; 1.4's CASH≠CHAIN check silent
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- [ ] Polygonscan: the fill's on-chain transfer matches shares/price ±rounding
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If any link fails: stop (Ctrl-C), snapshot state + logs, diagnose before re-arming.
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---
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## Phase 5 — edge-case matrix (the actual test)
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Run days-to-weeks until every row has a ✓ with evidence (log line + feed row +
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chain tx where applicable). Most trigger naturally from the follow set's flow;
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patience beats forcing.
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| case | trigger | acceptance evidence |
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|------|---------|---------------------|
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| BUY copy | any conviction signal | Phase-4 checklist |
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| ADD (signal scales in) | whale re-buys same market | position grows ≤ stake rule; feed cost/shares aggregate |
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| **SELL before resolution** | signal fully exits (they exit most positions — hours, not days) | `EXIT … [LIVE] sell` + proceeds land in balance + status `closed`/SOLD + 1.6 retry logs if book thin |
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| hold → WIN | resolution | `SETTLE … WON` + **auto-redeem tx hash on Polygonscan** + USDC balance up by shares×$1 |
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| hold → LOSS | resolution | `SETTLE … LOST`, no redeem attempted, book realizes −cost |
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| hold → **REFUND 50/50** | ITF walkover/abandonment (≈28% of markets — will happen) | `SETTLE … REFUND ↩` + redeem tx at $0.50/share + cash up by shares×0.5 |
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| missed (price guard) | price runs >5% in the copy lag | `skip … price moved` + missed row on dashboard, later settled hypothetically |
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| missed (cash gate) | exposure cap hit | `capital fully deployed` skip + missed row |
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| downtime reconcile | stop the live app 30+ min during flow, restart | boot logs `reconcile:` lines; downtime entries → missed("bot offline"); exits mirrored or settled |
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| FAK no-fill | thin book (observe, don't force) | order killed cleanly, no resting order in the UI, retry per 1.6 |
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| neg-risk market | if one gets copied | `⚠ NEG-RISK … redeem manually` warning; manual UI redeem works |
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| **WITHDRAW** | user, at the end | USDC withdrawn via UI back to source; final book cash ≈ withdrawal ± dust; screenshot + final feed snapshot committed |
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Throughout: `ledger_drift` 0.00 every heartbeat, CASH≠CHAIN silent, and the
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paper book running in parallel as control.
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---
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## Phase 6 — wind-down + verdict (user + agent)
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1. Stop the live app; final feed + state snapshot committed (tagged `live-test-1`).
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2. Write `FINDINGS.md` addendum: measured live slippage vs paper's −3.6%/65s,
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fee accuracy, fill rate (FAK kill rate), any stuck exits, refund handling.
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3. **Graduation gate (all required):** every Phase-5 row ✓ · ledger drift 0
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throughout · live slippage within 2× of paper model · no manual state
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surgery needed. Then — and only then — a sizing discussion (separate
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decision, separate doc; the their-bet ceiling and depth-aware fills from
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README "Scale carefully" apply).
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## Standing notes for the executing agent
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- Never print/commit the private key; `git status` before every commit.
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- The daily 08:00 Mac pipeline and the bot's self-commits keep pushing to this
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repo — always `git pull --rebase --autostash` before pushing.
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- The paper worker's webhook/feed/state are load-bearing for the July test:
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if a change might touch them, it's a Phase-1-style isolated change with its
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own verification first.
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- When something looks wrong, the debugging order that worked in the audit:
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feed → state → fills ledger → data-api → CLOB → **chain payouts** (the chain
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is always right).
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