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alteregoeth-ai
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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Weather Trading Bot v1 — Polymarket
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Simple base bot. Finds mispriced temperature markets using Open-Meteo forecasts.
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Usage:
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python bot_v1.py # Scan markets and show signals (paper mode)
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python bot_v1.py --live # Execute trades against virtual $1,000 balance
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python bot_v1.py --reset # Reset simulation balance
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python bot_v1.py --positions # Show open positions
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"""
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import re
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import json
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import argparse
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import requests
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from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta
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# =============================================================================
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# CONFIG
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# =============================================================================
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with open("config.json") as f:
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_cfg = json.load(f)
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ENTRY_THRESHOLD = _cfg.get("entry_threshold", 0.15) # Buy below this price
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EXIT_THRESHOLD = _cfg.get("exit_threshold", 0.45) # Sell above this price
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MAX_TRADES = _cfg.get("max_trades_per_run", 5)
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MIN_HOURS_LEFT = _cfg.get("min_hours_to_resolution", 2)
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POSITION_PCT = 0.05 # Flat 5% of balance per trade
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SIM_BALANCE = 1000.0 # Starting virtual balance
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LOCATIONS = {
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"nyc": {"lat": 40.71, "lon": -74.00, "name": "New York City"},
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"chicago": {"lat": 41.87, "lon": -87.62, "name": "Chicago"},
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"miami": {"lat": 25.76, "lon": -80.19, "name": "Miami"},
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"dallas": {"lat": 32.77, "lon": -96.79, "name": "Dallas"},
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"seattle": {"lat": 47.60, "lon": -122.33, "name": "Seattle"},
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"atlanta": {"lat": 33.74, "lon": -84.38, "name": "Atlanta"},
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}
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ACTIVE_LOCATIONS = _cfg.get("locations", "nyc,chicago,miami,dallas,seattle,atlanta").split(",")
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ACTIVE_LOCATIONS = [l.strip().lower() for l in ACTIVE_LOCATIONS]
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MONTHS = ["january","february","march","april","may","june",
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"july","august","september","october","november","december"]
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# =============================================================================
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# COLORS
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# =============================================================================
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class C:
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GREEN = "\033[92m"
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YELLOW = "\033[93m"
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RED = "\033[91m"
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CYAN = "\033[96m"
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GRAY = "\033[90m"
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RESET = "\033[0m"
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BOLD = "\033[1m"
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def ok(msg): print(f"{C.GREEN} ✅ {msg}{C.RESET}")
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def warn(msg): print(f"{C.YELLOW} ⚠️ {msg}{C.RESET}")
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def info(msg): print(f"{C.CYAN} {msg}{C.RESET}")
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def skip(msg): print(f"{C.GRAY} ⏸️ {msg}{C.RESET}")
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# =============================================================================
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# SIMULATION STATE
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# =============================================================================
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SIM_FILE = "simulation.json"
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def load_sim() -> dict:
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try:
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with open(SIM_FILE) as f:
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return json.load(f)
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except FileNotFoundError:
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return {
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"balance": SIM_BALANCE,
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"starting_balance": SIM_BALANCE,
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"positions": {},
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"trades": [],
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"total_trades": 0,
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"wins": 0,
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"losses": 0,
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"peak_balance": SIM_BALANCE,
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}
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def save_sim(sim: dict):
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with open(SIM_FILE, "w") as f:
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json.dump(sim, f, indent=2)
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def reset_sim():
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import os
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if os.path.exists(SIM_FILE):
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os.remove(SIM_FILE)
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print(f"{C.GREEN} ✅ Simulation reset — balance back to ${SIM_BALANCE:.2f}{C.RESET}")
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# =============================================================================
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# OPEN-METEO FORECAST
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# =============================================================================
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def get_forecast(city_slug: str) -> dict:
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"""Fetch 4-day max temperature forecast from Open-Meteo (free, no API key)"""
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loc = LOCATIONS[city_slug]
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url = (
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f"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast"
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f"?latitude={loc['lat']}&longitude={loc['lon']}"
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f"&daily=temperature_2m_max&temperature_unit=fahrenheit&forecast_days=4"
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)
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try:
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r = requests.get(url, timeout=10)
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data = r.json()
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result = {}
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for date, temp in zip(data["daily"]["time"], data["daily"]["temperature_2m_max"]):
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result[date] = round(temp, 1)
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return result
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except Exception as e:
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warn(f"Forecast error for {city_slug}: {e}")
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return {}
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# =============================================================================
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# POLYMARKET API
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# =============================================================================
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def get_polymarket_event(city_slug: str, month: str, day: int, year: int):
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"""Find a weather market on Polymarket by its URL slug"""
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slug = f"highest-temperature-in-{city_slug}-on-{month}-{day}-{year}"
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url = f"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug={slug}"
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try:
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r = requests.get(url, timeout=10)
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data = r.json()
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if data and isinstance(data, list) and len(data) > 0:
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return data[0]
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except Exception as e:
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warn(f"Polymarket API error: {e}")
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return None
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# =============================================================================
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# PARSING
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# =============================================================================
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def parse_temp_range(question: str):
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"""Extract temperature range from a market question"""
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if not question:
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return None
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if "or below" in question.lower():
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m = re.search(r'(\d+)°F or below', question, re.IGNORECASE)
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if m: return (-999, int(m.group(1)))
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if "or higher" in question.lower():
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m = re.search(r'(\d+)°F or higher', question, re.IGNORECASE)
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if m: return (int(m.group(1)), 999)
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m = re.search(r'between (\d+)-(\d+)°F', question, re.IGNORECASE)
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if m: return (int(m.group(1)), int(m.group(2)))
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return None
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def hours_until_resolution(event: dict) -> float:
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try:
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end_date = event.get("endDate") or event.get("end_date_iso")
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if not end_date: return 999
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end_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(end_date.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
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delta = (end_dt - datetime.now(timezone.utc)).total_seconds() / 3600
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return max(0, delta)
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except Exception:
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return 999
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# =============================================================================
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# SHOW POSITIONS
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# =============================================================================
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def show_positions():
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sim = load_sim()
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positions = sim["positions"]
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print(f"\n{C.BOLD}📊 Open Positions:{C.RESET}")
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if not positions:
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print(" No open positions")
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return
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total_pnl = 0
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for mid, pos in positions.items():
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try:
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url = f"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/{mid}"
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r = requests.get(url, timeout=5)
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prices = json.loads(r.json().get("outcomePrices", "[0.5,0.5]"))
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current_price = float(prices[0])
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except Exception:
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current_price = pos["entry_price"]
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pnl = (current_price - pos["entry_price"]) * pos["shares"]
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total_pnl += pnl
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pnl_str = f"{C.GREEN}+${pnl:.2f}{C.RESET}" if pnl >= 0 else f"{C.RED}-${abs(pnl):.2f}{C.RESET}"
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print(f"\n • {pos['question'][:65]}...")
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print(f" Entry: ${pos['entry_price']:.3f} | Now: ${current_price:.3f} | "
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f"Shares: {pos['shares']:.1f} | PnL: {pnl_str}")
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print(f" Cost: ${pos['cost']:.2f}")
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print(f"\n Balance: ${sim['balance']:.2f}")
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pnl_color = C.GREEN if total_pnl >= 0 else C.RED
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print(f" Open PnL: {pnl_color}{'+'if total_pnl>=0 else ''}{total_pnl:.2f}{C.RESET}")
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print(f" Total trades: {sim['total_trades']} | W/L: {sim['wins']}/{sim['losses']}")
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# =============================================================================
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# MAIN STRATEGY
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# =============================================================================
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def run(dry_run: bool = True):
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print(f"\n{C.BOLD}{C.CYAN}🌤 Weather Trading Bot v1{C.RESET}")
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print("=" * 50)
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sim = load_sim()
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balance = sim["balance"]
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positions = sim["positions"]
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trades_executed = 0
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exits_found = 0
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mode = f"{C.YELLOW}PAPER MODE{C.RESET}" if dry_run else f"{C.GREEN}LIVE MODE{C.RESET}"
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starting = sim["starting_balance"]
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total_return = (balance - starting) / starting * 100
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return_str = f"{C.GREEN}+{total_return:.1f}%{C.RESET}" if total_return >= 0 else f"{C.RED}{total_return:.1f}%{C.RESET}"
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print(f"\n Mode: {mode}")
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print(f" Virtual balance: {C.BOLD}${balance:.2f}{C.RESET} (started ${starting:.2f}, {return_str})")
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print(f" Position size: {POSITION_PCT:.0%} of balance per trade")
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print(f" Entry threshold: below ${ENTRY_THRESHOLD:.2f}")
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print(f" Exit threshold: above ${EXIT_THRESHOLD:.2f}")
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print(f" Trades W/L: {sim['wins']}/{sim['losses']}")
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# --- CHECK EXITS ---
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print(f"\n{C.BOLD}📤 Checking exits...{C.RESET}")
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for mid, pos in list(positions.items()):
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try:
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url = f"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/{mid}"
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r = requests.get(url, timeout=5)
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prices = json.loads(r.json().get("outcomePrices", "[0.5,0.5]"))
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current_price = float(prices[0])
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except Exception:
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continue
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if current_price >= EXIT_THRESHOLD:
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exits_found += 1
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pnl = (current_price - pos["entry_price"]) * pos["shares"]
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ok(f"EXIT: {pos['question'][:50]}...")
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info(f"Price ${current_price:.3f} >= exit ${EXIT_THRESHOLD:.2f} | PnL: +${pnl:.2f}")
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if not dry_run:
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balance += pos["cost"] + pnl
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sim["wins"] += 1 if pnl > 0 else 0
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sim["losses"] += 1 if pnl <= 0 else 0
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sim["trades"].append({
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"type": "exit",
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"question": pos["question"],
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"entry_price": pos["entry_price"],
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"exit_price": current_price,
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"pnl": round(pnl, 2),
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"cost": pos["cost"],
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"closed_at": datetime.now().isoformat(),
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})
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del positions[mid]
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ok(f"Closed — PnL: {'+'if pnl>=0 else ''}{pnl:.2f}")
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else:
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skip("Paper mode — not selling")
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if exits_found == 0:
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skip("No exit opportunities")
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# --- SCAN ENTRIES ---
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print(f"\n{C.BOLD}🔍 Scanning for entry signals...{C.RESET}")
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for city_slug in ACTIVE_LOCATIONS:
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if city_slug not in LOCATIONS:
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warn(f"Unknown location: {city_slug}")
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continue
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loc_data = LOCATIONS[city_slug]
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forecast = get_forecast(city_slug)
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if not forecast:
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continue
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for i in range(0, 4):
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date = datetime.now() + timedelta(days=i)
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date_str = date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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month = MONTHS[date.month - 1]
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day = date.day
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year = date.year
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forecast_temp = forecast.get(date_str)
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if forecast_temp is None:
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continue
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event = get_polymarket_event(city_slug, month, day, year)
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if not event:
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continue
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hours_left = hours_until_resolution(event)
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print(f"\n{C.BOLD}📍 {loc_data['name']} — {date_str}{C.RESET}")
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info(f"Forecast: {forecast_temp}°F | Resolves in: {hours_left:.0f}h")
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if hours_left < MIN_HOURS_LEFT:
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skip(f"Resolves in {hours_left:.0f}h — too soon")
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continue
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# Find matching temperature bucket
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matched = None
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for market in event.get("markets", []):
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question = market.get("question", "")
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rng = parse_temp_range(question)
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if rng and rng[0] <= forecast_temp <= rng[1]:
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try:
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prices = json.loads(market.get("outcomePrices", "[0.5,0.5]"))
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yes_price = float(prices[0])
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except Exception:
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continue
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matched = {
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"market": market,
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"question": question,
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"price": yes_price,
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"range": rng
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}
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break
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if not matched:
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skip(f"No bucket found for {forecast_temp}°F")
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continue
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price = matched["price"]
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market_id = matched["market"].get("id", "")
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question = matched["question"]
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info(f"Bucket: {question[:60]}")
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info(f"Market price: ${price:.3f}")
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# Entry check — is market underpricing what the forecast says?
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if price >= ENTRY_THRESHOLD:
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skip(f"Price ${price:.3f} above threshold ${ENTRY_THRESHOLD:.2f}")
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continue
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position_size = round(balance * POSITION_PCT, 2)
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shares = position_size / price
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ok(f"SIGNAL — buying {shares:.1f} shares @ ${price:.3f} = ${position_size:.2f}")
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if market_id in positions:
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skip("Already in this market")
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continue
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if trades_executed >= MAX_TRADES:
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skip(f"Max trades ({MAX_TRADES}) reached")
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continue
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if position_size < 0.50:
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skip(f"Position size ${position_size:.2f} too small")
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continue
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if not dry_run:
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balance -= position_size
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positions[market_id] = {
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"question": question,
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"entry_price": price,
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"shares": shares,
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"cost": position_size,
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"date": date_str,
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"location": city_slug,
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"forecast_temp": forecast_temp,
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"opened_at": datetime.now().isoformat(),
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}
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sim["total_trades"] += 1
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sim["trades"].append({
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"type": "entry",
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"question": question,
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"entry_price": price,
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"shares": shares,
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"cost": position_size,
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"opened_at": datetime.now().isoformat(),
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})
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trades_executed += 1
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ok(f"Position opened — ${position_size:.2f} deducted from balance")
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else:
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skip("Paper mode — not buying")
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trades_executed += 1
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# Save state
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if not dry_run:
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sim["balance"] = round(balance, 2)
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sim["positions"] = positions
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sim["peak_balance"] = max(sim.get("peak_balance", balance), balance)
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save_sim(sim)
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# Summary
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print(f"\n{'=' * 50}")
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print(f"{C.BOLD}📊 Summary:{C.RESET}")
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info(f"Balance: ${balance:.2f}")
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info(f"Trades this run: {trades_executed}")
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info(f"Exits found: {exits_found}")
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if dry_run:
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print(f"\n {C.YELLOW}[PAPER MODE — use --live to simulate trades]{C.RESET}")
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# =============================================================================
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# CLI
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# =============================================================================
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Weather Trading Bot v1")
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parser.add_argument("--live", action="store_true", help="Execute trades (updates simulation balance)")
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parser.add_argument("--positions", action="store_true", help="Show open positions")
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parser.add_argument("--reset", action="store_true", help="Reset simulation to $1000")
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args = parser.parse_args()
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if args.reset:
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reset_sim()
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elif args.positions:
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show_positions()
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else:
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run(dry_run=not args.live)
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