feat(paper): V3 策略候选对比卡 + AI 个股分析注入虚拟持仓

- 模拟盘右列新增「策略对比」卡: 统计 vs 策略候选 (回测报告持久化摘要, 同口径标量),
  各按己方单位渲染 (候选小数 fmtPct / 模拟盘百分数), 不做数值换算
- api 客户端新增 backtestCandidates + BacktestCandidate 类型 + QK 键
- stock_analyzer: 模拟盘默认账户持有该标的时, 用户提示词注入虚拟持仓上下文
  (数量/成本/浮盈, 浮盈优先 raw_close 口径避免除权失真; 注入失败静默跳过)
- 测试: 注入/空仓/raw 口径 3 项 + 既有 46 项全过; 前端 build 通过

backend/app/services/stock_analyzer.py

@@ -195,6 +195,32 @@ _SYSTEM_PROMPT = """你是一位拥有 15 年 A 股一线研究经验的技术
 # 用户消息构建
 # ================================================================
 
+def _paper_position_part(pos: dict | None, close: float | None, raw_close: float | None) -> str:
+    """虚拟持仓上下文 (V3): 模拟盘持有该标的时注入提示词, 让 AI 结合仓位给建议。
+
+    pos 为空 / 数量或成本无效时返回空串 (不注入"空仓"之类误导性表述)。
+    浮盈用 raw 口径: 持仓 avg_cost 是不复权 raw 成本, 与前复权 close 混算会在
+    除权后产生虚假盈亏, 故优先用 raw_close (缺列时退化用 close 并接受口径误差)。
+    """
+    if not pos:
+        return ""
+    qty = pos.get("qty") or 0
+    avg_cost = pos.get("avg_cost") or 0
+    if qty <= 0 or avg_cost <= 0:
+        return ""
+    ref = raw_close if (raw_close is not None and raw_close > 0) else close
+    lines = [f"持仓数量: {qty} 股, 平均成本: {avg_cost:.3f} 元 (不复权)"]
+    if ref is not None and ref > 0:
+        pnl_pct = (ref / avg_cost - 1) * 100
+        lines.append(f"现价 {ref:.2f} 元, 浮动盈亏: {pnl_pct:+.2f}%")
+    return (
+        "\n以下是该标的在模拟盘 (虚拟账户) 的当前持仓:\n"
+        + "\n".join(lines)
+        + "\n请在结论中结合该虚拟持仓状态给出持有/减仓/加仓的可执行参考,"
+        "并明确这是基于模拟盘虚拟持仓的建议。\n"
+    )
+
+
 def _build_user_prompt(
     kline_tail: list[dict],
     fins: dict[str, list[dict]],
@@ -203,8 +229,10 @@ def _build_user_prompt(
     symbol: str,
     focus: str,
     asset_type: str = "stock",
+    paper_position: dict | None = None,
+    raw_close: float | None = None,
 ) -> str:
-    """构建用户消息:标的 + 价位摘要 + 技术指标 JSON + 财务摘要 + 关注点。
+    """构建用户消息:标的 + 价位摘要 + 技术指标 JSON + 财务摘要 + 关注点 (+ 虚拟持仓)。
 
     asset_type 用于区分无财务数据时的文案:指数/ETF 无财务是常态,不走 Free 文案。
     """
@@ -254,6 +282,9 @@ def _build_user_prompt(
     focus_instruction = build_focus_instruction(focus, report_name="个股分析报告")
     if focus_instruction:
         parts.extend(["", focus_instruction])
+    paper_part = _paper_position_part(paper_position, close, raw_close)
+    if paper_part:
+        parts.extend(["", paper_part])
     return "\n".join(parts)
 
 
@@ -325,9 +356,20 @@ async def analyze_stock_stream(
     try:
         from app.services.ai_provider import stream_ai_text
 
+        # 虚拟持仓上下文 (V3): 默认模拟盘账户持有该标的时注入 (任何异常静默跳过, 不影响分析)。
+        paper_position = None
+        try:
+            from app.strategy import paper as paper_trading
+            paper_position = paper_trading.load_positions(data_dir).get(symbol)
+        except Exception as e:  # noqa: BLE001
+            logger.warning("读取模拟盘持仓失败 (跳过注入): %s", e)
+        # 浮盈口径用 raw: 持仓成本不复权, 与前复权 close 混算会在除权后失真
+        raw_close = float(df.tail(1)["raw_close"][0]) if "raw_close" in df.columns else None
+
         kline_tail = _clean_rows(df, _KLINE_KEEP_COLS)
         user_prompt = _build_user_prompt(kline_tail, fins, levels, close, symbol, focus,
-                                         asset_type=asset_type)
+                                         asset_type=asset_type, paper_position=paper_position,
+                                         raw_close=raw_close)
         got_content = False
         async for delta in stream_ai_text(
             [

backend/tests/test_stock_analyzer_index.py

@@ -29,3 +29,45 @@ def test_user_prompt_etf_no_financials():
     assert "ETF" in prompt
     assert "Free 模式" not in prompt
     assert "尚未同步财务报表" not in prompt
+
+
+# ===== V3: 虚拟持仓注入 =====
+
+def test_user_prompt_injects_paper_position():
+    """模拟盘持有该标的: 注入持仓数量/成本/浮盈, 并要求 AI 给持仓建议。"""
+    from app.services.stock_analyzer import _paper_position_part, _build_user_prompt
+
+    part = _paper_position_part({"qty": 1000, "avg_cost": 10.0}, close=11.0, raw_close=11.0)
+    assert "1000 股" in part
+    assert "10.000" in part
+    assert "+10.00%" in part
+    assert "虚拟持仓" in part
+
+    prompt = _build_user_prompt(
+        kline_tail=[{"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0}],
+        fins={"metrics": [], "income": []},
+        levels={}, close=11.0, symbol="600000.SH", focus="",
+        paper_position={"qty": 1000, "avg_cost": 10.0}, raw_close=11.0,
+    )
+    assert "模拟盘" in prompt and "持仓数量" in prompt
+
+
+def test_paper_position_part_empty_without_position():
+    """无持仓/零仓/无效成本: 返回空串, 不注入误导性「空仓」表述。"""
+    from app.services.stock_analyzer import _paper_position_part
+
+    assert _paper_position_part(None, 11.0, 11.0) == ""
+    assert _paper_position_part({"qty": 0, "avg_cost": 10.0}, 11.0, 11.0) == ""
+    assert _paper_position_part({"qty": 100, "avg_cost": 0}, 11.0, 11.0) == ""
+
+
+def test_paper_position_part_prefers_raw_close():
+    """除权后前复权 close 与 raw 成本混算会产生虚假盈亏: 必须优先 raw_close。
+
+    raw 成本 20 元, 除权后前复权 close=11、raw_close=21: 用 close 算出 -45% 是错的。
+    """
+    from app.services.stock_analyzer import _paper_position_part
+
+    part = _paper_position_part({"qty": 100, "avg_cost": 20.0}, close=11.0, raw_close=21.0)
+    assert "+5.00%" in part
+    assert "-45" not in part

frontend/src/lib/api.ts

@@ -1340,6 +1340,29 @@ export interface GroupStat {
   win_rate: number
 }
 
+/** 回测候选 (candidates): 回测报告的持久化标量摘要; metrics 单位为小数 (0.052 = 5.2%) */
+export interface BacktestCandidate {
+  id: string
+  kind: 'factor' | 'strategy'
+  name: string
+  source_id: string
+  metrics: Partial<{
+    total_return: number
+    annual_return: number
+    max_drawdown: number
+    sharpe: number
+    sortino: number
+    win_rate: number
+    n_trades: number
+    profit_factor: number
+    avg_return: number
+    median_return: number
+  }>
+  data_as_of: string | null
+  status: 'pending' | 'validated' | 'rejected'
+  created_at: string
+}
+
 export interface FactorBacktestResult {
   run_id: string
   config: Record<string, any>
@@ -2825,6 +2848,10 @@ export const api = {
 
   backtestStatus: () => request<{ available: boolean }>('/api/backtest/status'),
 
+  /** 策略/因子候选 (回测报告的持久化摘要, 模拟盘对比用) */
+  backtestCandidates: () =>
+    request<{ items: BacktestCandidate[] }>('/api/backtest/candidates'),
+
   backtestRun: (payload: {
     symbols: string[]
     entries: string[]

frontend/src/lib/queryKeys.ts

@@ -52,6 +52,7 @@ export const QK = {
 
   // Backtest
   backtestStatus:       ['backtest-status'] as const,
+  backtestCandidates:   ['backtest-candidates'] as const,
   factorColumns:        ['backtest-factor-columns'] as const,
   factorLibrary:        (assetType: string) => ['factors-library', assetType] as const,
   miningRuns:           ['backtest-mining-runs'] as const,

frontend/src/pages/Paper.tsx

@@ -313,6 +313,82 @@ function OrderForm({ acc, onDone }: { acc: string; onDone: () => void }) {
   )
 }
 
+/** 策略候选对比 (V3): 模拟盘统计 vs 回测候选 (回测报告的持久化标量摘要, 口径与回测对齐)。
+ * 单位口径: 候选 metrics 为小数 (fmtPct 渲染), 模拟盘统计为百分数原值 — 各自按己方单位渲染, 不做数值换算。 */
+interface PaperCompareStats {
+  total_return_pct: number | null
+  annual_pct: number | null
+  max_drawdown: number | null
+  win_rate: number | null
+  n_trades: number | null
+  profit_loss_ratio: number | null
+}
+
+function CandidateCompareCard({ paper }: { paper: PaperCompareStats }) {
+  const candsQ = useQuery({ queryKey: QK.backtestCandidates, queryFn: api.backtestCandidates })
+  const candidates = (candsQ.data?.items ?? []).filter(c => c.kind === 'strategy')
+  const [selId, setSelId] = useState('')
+  const sel = candidates.find(c => c.id === selId) ?? candidates[0]
+  const m = sel?.metrics ?? {}
+  const paperPct = (v: number | null | undefined) => (v == null ? '—' : `${v > 0 ? '+' : ''}${v.toFixed(2)}%`)
+  const candPct = (v: number | null | undefined) => (v == null ? '—' : fmtPct(v))
+  const num = (v: number | null | undefined, digits = 0) => (v == null ? '—' : v.toFixed(digits))
+  const rows: Array<[string, string, string]> = [
+    ['累计收益', paperPct(paper.total_return_pct), candPct(m.total_return)],
+    ['年化收益', paperPct(paper.annual_pct), candPct(m.annual_return)],
+    ['最大回撤', paper.max_drawdown != null ? `-${paper.max_drawdown.toFixed(2)}%` : '—', candPct(m.max_drawdown)],
+    ['胜率', paper.win_rate != null ? `${paper.win_rate.toFixed(1)}%` : '—', candPct(m.win_rate)],
+    ['交易次数', num(paper.n_trades), num(m.n_trades)],
+    ['盈亏比', num(paper.profit_loss_ratio, 2), num(m.profit_factor, 2)],
+    ['夏普比率', '—', num(m.sharpe, 2)],
+  ]
+  return (
+    <div className="rounded-card border border-border/60 bg-surface p-3">
+      <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+        <div className="shrink-0 text-sm font-medium">策略对比</div>
+        {candidates.length > 0 ? (
+          <select
+            value={sel?.id ?? ''}
+            onChange={e => setSelId(e.target.value)}
+            className="min-w-0 flex-1 rounded-btn border border-border bg-base px-1.5 py-1 text-xs text-secondary"
+            title="选择要对比的策略候选"
+          >
+            {candidates.map(c => (
+              <option key={c.id} value={c.id}>{c.name}</option>
+            ))}
+          </select>
+        ) : (
+          <span className="text-[10px] text-muted">暂无策略候选</span>
+        )}
+      </div>
+      {sel ? (
+        <table className="mt-2 w-full text-[11px]">
+          <thead>
+            <tr className="text-muted">
+              <th className="py-0.5 text-left font-normal">指标</th>
+              <th className="py-0.5 text-right font-normal">模拟盘</th>
+              <th className="max-w-0 truncate py-0.5 text-right font-normal" title={sel.name}>{sel.name} (回测)</th>
+            </tr>
+          </thead>
+          <tbody className="font-mono">
+            {rows.map(([label, p, c]) => (
+              <tr key={label} className="border-t border-border/40">
+                <td className="py-1 font-sans text-muted">{label}</td>
+                <td className="py-1 text-right text-secondary">{p}</td>
+                <td className="py-1 text-right text-secondary">{c}</td>
+              </tr>
+            ))}
+          </tbody>
+        </table>
+      ) : (
+        <div className="mt-2 text-[11px] leading-relaxed text-muted">
+          在策略页保存回测候选后, 可与模拟盘同口径对比 (累计/年化/回撤/胜率等)。
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
 /** 自动跟单规则列表 + 新建表单 (V2): 监控事件 → 自动下单 (按账户隔离) */
 function AutoRulesPanel({ acc }: { acc: string }) {
   const qc = useQueryClient()
@@ -773,10 +849,20 @@ export function Paper() {
             </div>
           </div>
 
-          {/* 右列: 下单 + 自动跟单 */}
+          {/* 右列: 下单 + 自动跟单 + 策略对比 */}
           <div className="space-y-4">
             <OrderForm acc={accId} onDone={invalidateAll} />
             <AutoRulesPanel acc={accId} />
+            <CandidateCompareCard paper={{
+              total_return_pct: nav.length >= 2 && nav[0].nav > 0 ? (nav[nav.length - 1].nav / nav[0].nav - 1) * 100 : null,
+              annual_pct: nav.length >= 2 && nav[0].nav > 0
+                ? (Math.pow(nav[nav.length - 1].nav / nav[0].nav, 252 / nav.length) - 1) * 100
+                : null,
+              max_drawdown: stats?.max_drawdown ?? null,
+              win_rate: stats?.win_rate ?? null,
+              n_trades: allFills.filter(f => f.kind !== 'corp_action').length,
+              profit_loss_ratio: stats?.profit_loss_ratio ?? null,
+            }} />
             <div className="rounded-card border border-border/60 bg-base/40 p-3 text-[11px] leading-relaxed text-muted">
               <div className="font-medium text-secondary">撮合口径</div>
               <div className="mt-1">· 即时单: 交易时段按最新快照价 + 滑点成交</div>