- Redesign README with polished badges, structured report preview, collapsible config sections - Update sample report to match actual 7-step deep analysis output (trade signal, event positions, long/short, info gap, historical pattern, asymmetry score) - Add new whale trade report (US x Iran diplomatic meeting) - Update signals database with latest data Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
526 lines
24 KiB
Markdown
526 lines
24 KiB
Markdown
<div align="center">
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# 🐋 Polymarket Whale Watcher
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**AI-Powered Whale Trade Intelligence for Polymarket Prediction Markets**
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[](https://www.python.org/downloads/)
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[](LICENSE)
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[](https://docs.polymarket.com/)
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[](https://aistudio.google.com/)
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<br/>
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**Real-time monitoring** of 700+ markets · **14 autonomous research tools** · **Multi-step deep analysis** · **Signal accuracy tracking**
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<br/>
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[Quick Start](#-quick-start) | [How It Works](#-how-it-works) | [Sample Report](#-sample-report) | [Configuration](#%EF%B8%8F-configuration) | [Dashboard](#-dashboard)
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---
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<img width="720" alt="pipeline" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Tiered_Markets_(700+)→Whale_Detection→Anomaly_Scoring→LLM_Investigation→Signal_Tracking-000?style=flat-square&labelColor=000"/>
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</div>
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<br/>
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## What It Does
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Whale Watcher continuously monitors **700+ active Polymarket markets** across three volume tiers, detects large trades with anomalous patterns, and deploys an LLM agent with **14 autonomous research tools** to conduct multi-step deep investigations. Each whale trade undergoes a structured 7-step analysis pipeline — from trader profiling and cross-market position mapping to information gap assessment — producing an **Information Asymmetry Score** that quantifies the likelihood of non-public information advantage.
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<br/>
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## Live Demo
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<details open>
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<summary><strong>Terminal Output</strong> — Real-time whale detection and analysis</summary>
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<br/>
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```
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$ python -m src.main run
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============================================================
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WHALE WATCHER STARTED
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============================================================
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Monitoring: 765 markets
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Interval: 10 seconds
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Min Trade Size: $10,000 USD
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Price Range: 0.1 - 0.9
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============================================================
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Tiered monitoring: Tier1=8 (>500K), Tier2=198 (>10K), Tier3=559 (>1K)
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[23:41:12] WHALE TRADE DETECTED!
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Amount: $9,600.00 USDC
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Side: BUY Yes
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Price: 0.7142
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Market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
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Generating analysis report...
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Round 1: LLM requested 3 tool call(s)
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→ search_web("US Iran diplomatic meeting June 2026")
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→ search_twitter("US Iran meeting diplomacy")
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→ get_wallet_transfers("0xceza...rn132")
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Round 2: LLM requested 2 tool call(s)
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→ search_web("Islamabad Iran talks Witkoff April 2026")
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→ search_twitter("POLYMARKET Iran meeting odds fading")
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Round 3: LLM requested 1 tool call(s)
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→ search_web("Iran FM Araghchi 3 phase deal proposal")
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Analysis complete after 3 round(s)
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Information Asymmetry Score: 0.32 (LOW)
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Trader Credibility: MEDIUM (#1733, PnL: $84K)
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Verdict: Thesis continuation / loss recovery — HOLD/PASS
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Report saved: reports/20260504/...
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```
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</details>
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<br/>
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<details>
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<summary><strong>Sample Report</strong> — 7-Step Deep Analysis (click to expand)</summary>
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<br/>
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Each whale trade generates a comprehensive markdown report with structured multi-step analysis:
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> **Full example**: [docs/examples/sample_report.md](docs/examples/sample_report.md)
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#### Report Structure
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```
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======================================================================
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# Whale Trade Analysis Report
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======================================================================
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┌─ Trade Summary ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
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│ Market, trade size, direction, price, odds, time, trader rank │
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└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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┌─ Step 2: Trade Signal Analysis ─────────────────────────────────────┐
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│ Trader profile: rank, PnL, avg size, large trade ratio │
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│ Domain expertise detection, trade timing analysis │
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└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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┌─ Step 3: Event-Related Position Analysis ───────────────────────────┐
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│ Cross-market positions, roll-forward detection │
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│ Loss recovery patterns, hedge identification │
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└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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┌─ Step 4: Market Long/Short Analysis ────────────────────────────────┐
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│ Top 5 bulls & bears with rankings and PnL │
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│ Smart money consensus assessment │
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└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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┌─ Step 5: Information Gap Analysis ──────────────────────────────────┐
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│ Public information audit (web, Twitter, Telegram) │
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│ Market pricing efficiency check │
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│ Non-public information evidence search │
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└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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┌─ Step 6: Historical Pattern ────────────────────────────────────────┐
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│ Trader's past bets on related events │
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│ Strategy pattern recognition (laddering, hedging, etc.) │
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└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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┌─ Step 7: Information Asymmetry Assessment ──────────────────────────┐
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│ Score (0–1), trader credibility, evidence, reasoning │
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│ Multi-factor summary table with signal strength │
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│ Recommended action: BUY / HOLD / PASS │
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└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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```
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#### Example Summary Table
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| Factor | Assessment | Signal |
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|--------|-----------|--------|
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| Trader Rank/PnL | Rank #1733, $84K PnL | Moderate |
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| Trade Size vs. Normal | ~$9.6K vs. avg $10K | Routine — neutral |
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| Related Position | Heavy loser on May 15 market (-$6.5K) | Suppresses signal |
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| Domain Expertise | Iran geopolitics specialist | Supportive |
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| Public Info Coverage | Extensive public news | Reduces asymmetry |
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| Smart Money Bulls | Rank #278 also long | Modest support |
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| **Overall** | **Thesis continuation, not insider signal** | **Low-Medium** |
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</details>
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<br/>
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<details>
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<summary><strong>Daily Briefing</strong> — Automated intelligence summary</summary>
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<br/>
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Daily briefings are generated at **10:00 AM local time** and emailed automatically.
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> **Full example**: [docs/examples/sample_briefing.md](docs/examples/sample_briefing.md)
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**Includes:**
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- High-confidence signals (IAS >= 60%) with full analysis summaries
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- Fallback: top 5 signals by score if none reach the threshold
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- Abnormal price volatility alerts
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- Historical signal performance — win rate and ROI by confidence tier
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</details>
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<br/>
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---
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## Quick Start
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### One-Click Setup
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```bash
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git clone https://github.com/chaoleiyv/polymarket-whale-watcher.git
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cd polymarket-whale-watcher
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chmod +x setup.sh && ./setup.sh
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```
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The setup script will:
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1. Check Python 3.10+ is installed
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2. Create a virtual environment
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3. Install all dependencies
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4. Create `.env` from template
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Then add your API key and start:
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```bash
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# Add your Gemini API key (the only required key)
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echo "GEMINI_API_KEY=your_key_here" >> .env
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# Activate the environment and run
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source .venv/bin/activate
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python -m src.main run
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```
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> **Get a free Gemini API key**: https://aistudio.google.com/apikey
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### Docker
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```bash
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docker build -t whale-watcher .
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docker run --env-file .env -v ./data:/app/data -v ./reports:/app/reports whale-watcher
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```
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---
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## How It Works
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```mermaid
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flowchart LR
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A[Polymarket API] --> B[Market Fetcher]
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B --> C[700+ Tiered Markets]
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C --> D[Trade Monitor]
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D --> E{Whale\nTrade?}
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E -->|No| D
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E -->|Yes| F[Anomaly Detector]
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F --> G{Score >= 0.65?}
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G -->|No| D
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G -->|Yes| H[LLM Analyzer]
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H --> I[14 Research Tools]
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I --> J[Signal + Report]
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J --> K[Resolution Tracker]
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K --> L[Dashboard + Email]
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```
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### Pipeline
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| Stage | What Happens |
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|-------|-------------|
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| **1. Market Selection** | Fetches all active markets from Polymarket Gamma API, classifies into 3 tiers by 24h volume, adds token launch markets. Refreshes every 15 minutes. |
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| **2. Trade Monitoring** | Parallel async tasks per market (700+), polls official Polymarket data-api for new taker BUY trades, deduplicates by transaction hash. Connection pool: 50 connections, 120s timeout. |
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| **3. Whale Pre-filter** | Price range 0.10–0.90, $5K hard floor, dynamic threshold scaled by volume ($5K–$100K), conviction check (must pay above mid), resolution window 6h–90d. |
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| **4. Anomaly Scoring** | 5-factor model (max 1.0): base confidence (0.50) + premium ratio (0.20) + signal cleanliness (0.10) + depth ratio (0.10) + cluster tier (0.10). Threshold: >= 0.65. |
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| **5. LLM Investigation** | Builds rich context (trade + trader profile + event positions + market top holders + historical signals). LLM autonomously selects tools for up to 3 rounds. Produces structured 7-step analysis with information asymmetry score (0–1). |
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| **6. Signal Tracking** | Resolution tracker checks every 30 min, validates signal correctness, computes theoretical ROI. Daily briefings at 10:00 AM, emailed to recipients. |
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---
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## Features
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| Feature | Description |
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|---------|-------------|
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| **Tiered Market Monitoring** | 700+ markets across 3 tiers: Tier1 (>$500K, 15s), Tier2 (>$10K, 60s), Tier3 (>$1K, 300s) |
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| **5-Factor Anomaly Detection** | Premium ratio, signal cleanliness, depth ratio, cluster signals, base confidence |
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| **7-Step Deep Analysis** | Trade signal → Event positions → Long/short mapping → Info gap → Historical pattern → Asymmetry score |
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| **14 Autonomous Research Tools** | Web, Twitter, Telegram, crypto, DeFi, stocks, on-chain, legislation |
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| **Cross-Market Position Analysis** | Detects roll-forwards, hedges, and loss recovery patterns across related markets |
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| **Signal Accuracy Tracking** | Auto resolution checking every 30 min, win rate stats by confidence tier |
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| **Daily Briefings** | 10:00 AM automated summary with high-confidence signals, emailed to recipients |
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| **Real-time Email Alerts** | Instant notifications for high information-asymmetry signals (>= 60%) |
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| **Web Dashboard** | FastAPI-based signal performance dashboard with ROI breakdowns |
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### 14 LLM Research Tools
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The LLM agent autonomously selects and chains these tools during its multi-round investigation:
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| Category | Tools | Use Case |
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|----------|-------|----------|
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| **Social & Sentiment** | `search_twitter` · `search_telegram` · `search_web` | Public sentiment, insider chatter, news coverage |
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| **Crypto & DeFi** | `get_crypto_price` · `get_crypto_market_overview` · `get_protocol_tvl` · `get_token_unlocks` · `get_protocol_revenue` | Token prices, TVL, unlocks, protocol health |
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| **Financial Data** | `get_stock_price` · `get_stock_news` · `get_economic_data` | Equities, ETFs, macro indicators |
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| **On-Chain** | `get_wallet_transfers` · `get_contract_info` | Wallet activity, contract deployments |
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| **Legislation** | `get_bill_status` · `get_recent_legislation` | US bills, regulatory actions |
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---
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## Sample Report
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Every whale trade produces a structured multi-step report. Here's a condensed view:
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```
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======================================================================
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# Whale Trade Analysis Report
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======================================================================
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Trade Summary
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Market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
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Size: $9,600 USDC | Direction: BUY Yes (71.4%) | Trader: #1733
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Step 2: Trade Signal Analysis
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→ Mid-tier trader, $84K PnL, Iran geopolitics specialist
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→ Trade size ($9.6K) matches avg ($10K) — routine, not exceptional
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Step 3: Event-Related Position Analysis ← KEY FINDING
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→ Losing -$6,508 on earlier "May 15 meeting" market (15.5% odds)
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→ This trade is a thesis roll-forward, not a fresh insider bet
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Step 4: Market Long/Short Analysis
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→ Biggest Yes holder is a chronic loser (PnL: -$5.5M) — red flag
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→ One elite trader (Rank #278) also long — modest support
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Step 5: Information Gap Analysis
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→ All supporting info widely reported in mainstream media
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→ Market at 69.5% — already fairly priced
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Step 6: Historical Pattern
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→ "Timeline ladder" strategy across multiple Iran-related deadlines
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Step 7: Information Asymmetry Assessment
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→ Score: 0.32 (LOW) | Credibility: MEDIUM
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→ Verdict: Thesis continuation / loss recovery — HOLD/PASS
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======================================================================
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```
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> **Full report**: [docs/examples/sample_report.md](docs/examples/sample_report.md)
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---
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## Configuration
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Copy `.env.example` to `.env` and configure:
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### Required
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| Variable | Description | Get It |
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|----------|-------------|--------|
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| `GEMINI_API_KEY` | LLM API key for analysis | [Google AI Studio](https://aistudio.google.com/apikey) |
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### Optional (enhances analysis quality)
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<details open>
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<summary><strong>Data Source API Keys</strong></summary>
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| Variable | Description | Get It |
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|----------|-------------|--------|
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| `TAVILY_API_KEY` | Web search (primary) | [tavily.com](https://tavily.com) |
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| `SERPER_API_KEY` | Web search (fallback) | [serper.dev](https://serper.dev) |
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| `TWITTER_API_KEY` | Twitter sentiment search | [twitterapi.io](https://twitterapi.io) |
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| `POLYGON_API_KEY` | Stock/ETF/forex data | [polygon.io](https://polygon.io) |
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| `FRED_API_KEY` | Economic indicators | [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/api_key.html) |
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| `ETHERSCAN_API_KEY` | On-chain wallet analysis (Polygon V2) | [etherscan.io](https://etherscan.io/apis) |
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| `CONGRESS_API_KEY` | US legislation data | [congress.gov](https://api.congress.gov/) |
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| `TELEGRAM_API_ID` / `TELEGRAM_API_HASH` | Telegram channel monitoring | [my.telegram.org](https://my.telegram.org) |
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</details>
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<details>
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<summary><strong>LLM Settings</strong></summary>
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| Variable | Default | Description |
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|----------|---------|-------------|
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| `LLM_MODEL` | `gemini-3-flash-preview` | Model name (any OpenAI-compatible) |
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| `LLM_BASE_URL` | Google AI endpoint | OpenAI-compatible API base URL |
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| `LLM_TEMPERATURE` | `0` | LLM temperature |
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</details>
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<details>
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<summary><strong>Whale Detection Tuning</strong></summary>
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| Variable | Default | Description |
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|----------|---------|-------------|
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| `MIN_TRADE_SIZE_USD` | `10000` | Minimum trade size to consider |
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| `MIN_PRICE` / `MAX_PRICE` | `0.10` / `0.90` | Price range filter |
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| `FETCH_INTERVAL_SECONDS` | `10` | Default polling interval |
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</details>
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<details>
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<summary><strong>Tiered Market Monitoring</strong></summary>
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| Variable | Default | Description |
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|----------|---------|-------------|
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| `FULL_MARKET_SCAN` | `true` | Enable tiered monitoring (all active markets) |
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| `TIER1_VOLUME_MIN` | `500000` | Tier 1 volume threshold |
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| `TIER2_VOLUME_MIN` | `10000` | Tier 2 volume threshold |
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| `TIER3_VOLUME_MIN` | `1000` | Tier 3 volume threshold |
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| `TIER1_POLL_INTERVAL` | `15` | Tier 1 polling interval (seconds) |
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| `TIER2_POLL_INTERVAL` | `60` | Tier 2 polling interval (seconds) |
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| `TIER3_POLL_INTERVAL` | `300` | Tier 3 polling interval (seconds) |
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</details>
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<details>
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<summary><strong>Email Alerts</strong></summary>
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| Variable | Default | Description |
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|----------|---------|-------------|
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| `EMAIL_ENABLED` | `false` | Enable email notifications |
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| `EMAIL_SENDER` | — | Sender email address |
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| `EMAIL_PASSWORD` | — | Sender email password (app password) |
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| `EMAIL_RECIPIENT` | — | Comma-separated recipient emails |
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</details>
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---
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## Commands
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```bash
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# Core
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python -m src.main run [--debug] # Start monitoring
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python -m src.main check-markets --limit 20 # View trending markets
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# Analysis
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python -m src.main test-analyze <market_id> # Test LLM on a specific market
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# Reports
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python -m src.main briefing --today # Generate today's briefing
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python -m src.main briefing --date 2026-04-17 # Briefing for a specific date
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# Dashboard
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python -m src.main dashboard --port 8000 # Start web dashboard
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# Maintenance
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python -m src.main migrate # Migrate legacy JSON to SQLite
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```
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---
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## Dashboard
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```bash
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python -m src.main dashboard
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# Open http://localhost:8000
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```
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The dashboard shows:
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- Overall signal statistics (total signals, win rate, avg ROI)
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- Performance breakdown by confidence tier
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- Top best/worst signals by theoretical ROI
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- Paginated signal history
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---
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## Architecture
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```
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┌──────────────────────────────┐
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│ Polymarket Gamma API │
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│ (all active markets) │
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└──────────────┬───────────────┘
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│
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┌──────────────▼───────────────┐
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│ Market Fetcher │
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│ Tier1: >$500K (15s poll) │
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│ Tier2: >$10K (60s poll) │
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│ Tier3: >$1K (300s poll) │
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└──────────────┬───────────────┘
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│
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┌────────────────────▼────────────────────┐
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│ Trade Monitor (async, 700+) │
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│ Official Polymarket data-api │
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│ Per-market parallel tasks │
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│ Pool: 50 connections, 120s timeout │
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└────────────────────┬────────────────────┘
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│
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┌────────────────────▼────────────────────┐
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│ Pre-filter + Scoring │
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│ $5K+ size, 0.10-0.90 price, conviction │
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│ 5-factor anomaly score >= 0.65 │
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└────────────────────┬────────────────────┘
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│
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┌────────────────────▼────────────────────┐
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│ LLM Analyzer — 7-Step Pipeline │
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│ 14 tools · up to 3 rounds │
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├──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────────┤
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│ Twitter │ Web │ DeFi │ On-Chain │
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│ Telegram │ Search │ Crypto │ Legislation│
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└──────────┴───┬────┴────────┴────────────┘
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│
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┌──────────────▼─────────────────────────┐
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│ Signal Storage (SQLite) │
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│ → Resolution Tracker (every 30min) │
|
||
│ → Daily Briefing (10:00 AM + email) │
|
||
│ → Email Alerts (IAS >= 60%) │
|
||
│ → Dashboard (FastAPI) │
|
||
└────────────────────────────────────────┘
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Project Structure
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
src/
|
||
├── config/settings.py # Environment configuration (Pydantic)
|
||
├── models/ # Data models
|
||
│ ├── market.py # Market, TrendingMarket
|
||
│ ├── trade.py # TradeActivity, WhaleTrade, TraderRanking
|
||
│ ├── decision.py # TradeRecommendation, LLMDecision
|
||
│ └── anomaly_signal.py # AnomalySignal (stored signal)
|
||
├── services/ # Business logic
|
||
│ ├── market_fetcher.py # Polymarket Gamma API (tiered market selection)
|
||
│ ├── trade_monitor.py # Per-market parallel monitoring (official API)
|
||
│ ├── anomaly_detector.py # 5-factor anomaly scoring
|
||
│ ├── llm_analyzer.py # LLM with tool-use (14 tools, 3 rounds)
|
||
│ ├── tools.py # Tool registry
|
||
│ ├── resolution_tracker.py # Market resolution checking
|
||
│ ├── stats_engine.py # Performance statistics
|
||
│ ├── daily_briefing.py # Daily summary generation + email
|
||
│ ├── twitter_search.py # Twitter API search
|
||
│ ├── telegram_search.py # Telegram channel monitoring
|
||
│ ├── web_search.py # Tavily/Serper/DuckDuckGo search
|
||
│ ├── coingecko.py # Crypto prices and market data
|
||
│ ├── defillama.py # DeFi TVL, revenue, token unlocks
|
||
│ ├── fred.py # FRED macroeconomic data
|
||
│ ├── polygon.py # Stock/ETF prices and news
|
||
│ ├── etherscan.py # On-chain data (Polygon, Etherscan V2)
|
||
│ └── congress.py # US legislation data
|
||
├── prompts/ # LLM system prompts
|
||
│ ├── whale_analyzer.py # Whale trade analysis prompt
|
||
│ └── volatility_analyzer.py # Price volatility analysis prompt
|
||
├── db/database.py # SQLite signal storage
|
||
└── main.py # CLI entry point (Typer)
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Disclaimer
|
||
|
||
This system is for **research and educational purposes only**. Prediction market trading involves significant risk. The information asymmetry scores and analyses are AI-generated estimates — not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and verify independently before making any trading decisions.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
<div align="center">
|
||
|
||
**MIT License** · Built with Polymarket API + Gemini
|
||
|
||
</div>
|