fix: correct win detection by mapping tokenId→outcome instead of array index

Problem: redeemer used array index to match balances to payoutFractions,
but Data API token order ≠ on-chain outcome index. This caused false wins
(shares on losing side counted as winning).

Fix:
- Store yesTokenId/noTokenId per conditionId in sniperExecutor
- Match tokens by ID (yes=outcome0, no=outcome1) instead of array position
- Only process positions tracked by sniper (skip MM/other positions)
- Inject token lookup via setSniperConditionLookup to avoid circular imports

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/services/ctf.js

@@ -545,6 +545,10 @@ const _skippedLosses = new Set();
 // Callback invoked when a win is detected — receives conditionId
 let _onWinCallback = null;
 
+// Function to look up conditionId → { asset, yesTokenId, noTokenId }
+// Injected from sniper entry point to avoid circular imports
+let _getConditionInfo = null;
+
 /**
  * Register a callback to be called when a sniper win is detected.
  * Callback signature: (conditionId: string) => void
@@ -553,6 +557,14 @@ export function onSniperWin(cb) {
     _onWinCallback = cb;
 }
 
+/**
+ * Register a function to look up sniper condition info (token mapping).
+ * Used to correctly map token balances to outcome indices.
+ */
+export function setSniperConditionLookup(fn) {
+    _getConditionInfo = fn;
+}
+
 /**
  * Redeem sniper positions via Gnosis Safe.
  * Only redeems WINNING positions — skip losses (they can be manually cleared).
@@ -639,19 +651,36 @@ export async function redeemSniperPositions() {
             // Determine winning outcome index (the one with payoutFraction > 0)
             const winningOutcome = payoutFractions[0] > 0 ? 0 : payoutFractions[1] > 0 ? 1 : -1;
 
+            const label = conditionId.slice(0, 12) + '...';
+
+            // Map token balances to outcome indices using sniper's token mapping.
+            // yesTokenId = outcome 0 (clobTokenIds[0]), noTokenId = outcome 1
+            const sniperInfo = _getConditionInfo ? _getConditionInfo(conditionId) : null;
+
+            // Build outcome→balance mapping (keyed by outcome index, not array index)
+            const outcomeBalances = [0, 0];
+            if (sniperInfo) {
+                for (let i = 0; i < tokens.length; i++) {
+                    if (tokens[i].tokenId === sniperInfo.yesTokenId) outcomeBalances[0] = balances[i];
+                    else if (tokens[i].tokenId === sniperInfo.noTokenId) outcomeBalances[1] = balances[i];
+                }
+            } else {
+                // No sniper mapping — skip (not a sniper position)
+                continue;
+            }
+
             // Win = we hold shares on the winning outcome side
-            const isWin = winningOutcome >= 0 && balances[winningOutcome] > 0;
-            const expectedUsdc = balances.reduce(
+            const winShares = winningOutcome >= 0 ? outcomeBalances[winningOutcome] : 0;
+            const isWin = winShares > 0;
+            const expectedUsdc = outcomeBalances.reduce(
                 (sum, shares, i) => sum + shares * (payoutFractions[i] ?? 0), 0
             );
 
-            const label = conditionId.slice(0, 12) + '...';
-
             // SNIPER: only redeem WINNERS — cache losses to skip next time
             if (!isWin) {
                 _skippedLosses.add(conditionId);
                 if (config.dryRun) {
-                    logger.info(`SNIPER[SIM] skip loss: ${label} — ${totalShares.toFixed(3)} shares, outcome=${winningOutcome} (cached)`);
+                    logger.info(`SNIPER[SIM] skip loss: ${label} — outcome=${winningOutcome}, win_shares=0 (cached)`);
                 } else {
                     logger.info(`SNIPER redeemer: skip loss ${label} — outcome=${winningOutcome}, no shares on winner`);
                 }
@@ -662,11 +691,11 @@ export async function redeemSniperPositions() {
             if (_onWinCallback) _onWinCallback(conditionId);
 
             if (config.dryRun) {
-                logger.money(`SNIPER[SIM] redeem: ${label} — ${balances[winningOutcome].toFixed(3)} shares on outcome ${winningOutcome} → ~$${expectedUsdc.toFixed(2)} USDC (WIN)`);
+                logger.money(`SNIPER[SIM] redeem: ${label} — ${winShares.toFixed(3)} shares on outcome ${winningOutcome} → ~$${expectedUsdc.toFixed(2)} USDC (WIN)`);
                 continue;
             }
 
-            logger.info(`SNIPER redeemer: ${label} resolved WIN — outcome ${winningOutcome}, ${balances[winningOutcome].toFixed(3)} shares → ~$${expectedUsdc.toFixed(2)} USDC`);
+            logger.info(`SNIPER redeemer: ${label} resolved WIN — outcome ${winningOutcome}, ${winShares.toFixed(3)} shares → ~$${expectedUsdc.toFixed(2)} USDC`);
 
             // Call redeemPositions through Safe — winners only
             const data = ctfIface.encodeFunctionData('redeemPositions', [

src/services/sniperExecutor.js

@@ -16,15 +16,20 @@ import { getTimeMultiplier } from './sniperSizing.js';
 // In-memory tracking of placed snipe orders
 const activeSnipes = [];
 
-// conditionId → asset mapping (for win detection → pause linkage)
-const conditionAssetMap = new Map();
+// conditionId → { asset, yesTokenId, noTokenId } mapping
+// yesTokenId = outcome 0 (clobTokenIds[0]), noTokenId = outcome 1 (clobTokenIds[1])
+const conditionInfoMap = new Map();
 
 export function getActiveSnipes() {
     return [...activeSnipes];
 }
 
 export function getConditionAsset(conditionId) {
-    return conditionAssetMap.get(conditionId) || null;
+    return conditionInfoMap.get(conditionId)?.asset || null;
+}
+
+export function getConditionInfo(conditionId) {
+    return conditionInfoMap.get(conditionId) || null;
 }
 
 /**
@@ -56,8 +61,13 @@ export async function executeSnipe(market) {
     const label = question.slice(0, 40);
     const sim   = config.dryRun ? '[SIM] ' : '';
 
-    // Track conditionId → asset for win detection
-    conditionAssetMap.set(conditionId, asset.toLowerCase());
+    // Track conditionId → { asset, token IDs } for win detection
+    // yesTokenId = outcome 0 (clobTokenIds[0]), noTokenId = outcome 1 (clobTokenIds[1])
+    conditionInfoMap.set(conditionId, {
+        asset: asset.toLowerCase(),
+        yesTokenId,
+        noTokenId,
+    });
 
     const sides = [
         { name: 'UP',   tokenId: yesTokenId },

src/sniper-tui.js

@@ -17,8 +17,8 @@ import { initClient } from './services/client.js';
 import { getUsdcBalance } from './services/client.js';
 import { initDashboard, appendLog, updateStatus, isDashboardActive } from './ui/dashboard.js';
 import { startSniperDetector, stopSniperDetector } from './services/sniperDetector.js';
-import { executeSnipe, getActiveSnipes, getConditionAsset } from './services/sniperExecutor.js';
-import { redeemSniperPositions, onSniperWin } from './services/ctf.js';
+import { executeSnipe, getActiveSnipes, getConditionAsset, getConditionInfo } from './services/sniperExecutor.js';
+import { redeemSniperPositions, onSniperWin, setSniperConditionLookup } from './services/ctf.js';
 import { getSchedule, isAssetInSession, getNextSessionInfo } from './services/schedule.js';
 import { getTimeMultiplier } from './services/sniperSizing.js';
 
@@ -181,6 +181,7 @@ function tickPause(asset) {
 }
 
 onSniperWin(handleWin);
+setSniperConditionLookup(getConditionInfo);
 
 // ── Market handler ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 

src/sniper.js

@@ -19,8 +19,8 @@ import config from './config/index.js';
 import logger from './utils/logger.js';
 import { initClient } from './services/client.js';
 import { startSniperDetector, stopSniperDetector } from './services/sniperDetector.js';
-import { executeSnipe, getConditionAsset } from './services/sniperExecutor.js';
-import { redeemSniperPositions, onSniperWin } from './services/ctf.js';
+import { executeSnipe, getConditionAsset, getConditionInfo } from './services/sniperExecutor.js';
+import { redeemSniperPositions, onSniperWin, setSniperConditionLookup } from './services/ctf.js';
 import { getSchedule, isAssetInSession, getNextSessionInfo } from './services/schedule.js';
 import { getTimeMultiplier } from './services/sniperSizing.js';
 
@@ -93,8 +93,9 @@ function tickPause(asset) {
     }
 }
 
-// Register win callback
+// Register win callback and token lookup for correct outcome mapping
 onSniperWin(handleWin);
+setSniperConditionLookup(getConditionInfo);
 
 // ── Log session schedule ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────