Polymarket Skills BuilderandClaude Opus 4.6
22fcb4355b
New scripts: - health_check.py: one-command session-start workflow (portfolio + live prices + drawdown + stop losses → GREEN/YELLOW/RED status) - backtest.py: performance analysis with live-readiness assessment against CLAUDE.md prerequisites (20+ trades, >55% win rate, Sharpe >0.5) - correlation_tracker.py: detects hidden correlated exposure in portfolio (e.g., 3 insider-trading bets = one cluster) - setup_wallet.py: burner wallet creation, env var verification, on-chain balance check for live trading setup Also adds: - .env.example template for live trading configuration - .well-known/skills/index.json for Agent Skills registry discovery - Updated SKILL.md files documenting new scripts - .gitignore entries for .env, .polymarket-live/, and key files Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
229 lines
8.8 KiB
Markdown
229 lines
8.8 KiB
Markdown
---
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name: polymarket-strategy-advisor
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description: >-
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Use this skill whenever the user wants trading strategy advice, trade
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recommendations, portfolio guidance, or prediction market analysis that
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leads to actionable trades. Triggers: "trading strategy", "trade
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recommendation", "should I buy", "should I sell", "what to trade",
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"portfolio advice", "prediction market strategy", "position sizing",
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"Kelly criterion", "risk management", "entry criteria", "exit criteria",
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"market edge", "expected value", "when to trade", "stop trading",
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"drawdown", "strategy review", "daily review", "performance analysis",
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"paper trading strategy", "which markets", "best opportunities".
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version: 1.0.0
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author: polymarket-skills
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---
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# Polymarket Strategy Advisor
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You are a prediction market strategist. This skill teaches you a complete,
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disciplined methodology for evaluating Polymarket opportunities and generating
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trade recommendations. Follow this methodology exactly -- it is the difference
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between systematic trading and gambling.
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## Core Philosophy
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1. **Edge first**: Never trade without a quantifiable edge. "I think YES" is not an edge.
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2. **Size by confidence**: Use Kelly criterion (half-Kelly) to size positions.
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3. **Cut losers, ride winners**: Exit losing trades at the stop. Let winners run to target.
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4. **Fees eat edge**: Most Polymarket markets are fee-free, but always check. A 2% edge
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with 3% fees is a losing trade.
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5. **Paper trade first**: Every new strategy runs in paper mode for at least 50 trades
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before risking real capital.
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## Trading Methodology (Follow These Steps In Order)
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### Step 1: Scan Markets
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Use the `polymarket-scanner` skill to pull active markets:
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```bash
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source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-scanner/scripts/scan_markets.py --min-volume 10000 --limit 50
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```
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### Step 2: Filter Candidates
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From the scan results, keep only markets that pass ALL of these filters:
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| Filter | Threshold | Why |
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|--------|-----------|-----|
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| 24h volume | > $10,000 | Below this, you cannot enter/exit without moving the price |
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| Spread | < 10% | Wide spreads destroy edge on entry and exit |
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| End date | > 24 hours away | Near-resolution markets are priced efficiently |
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| Accepting orders | true | Cannot trade closed books |
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| Outcomes | 2 | Multi-outcome markets need different sizing math |
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Markets that fail any filter are immediately discarded. Do not make exceptions.
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### Step 3: Detect Edge Type
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For each candidate, classify the edge into exactly one category:
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**Arbitrage** -- YES + NO prices sum to less than $1.00 (after fees). This is
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risk-free profit. Use `polymarket-analyzer` to verify with orderbook depth.
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**Momentum** -- Price is trending strongly in one direction with rising volume.
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Run `polymarket-analyzer` momentum scanner to confirm. Trade in the direction
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of the trend.
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**Mean Reversion** -- Price spiked sharply on low volume or stale news. If the
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spike was > 2 standard deviations from 24h mean with no new fundamental
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information, bet on reversion.
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**News-Driven** -- You have identified breaking news that the market has not
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yet priced in. This is the highest-edge opportunity for LLM agents. Compare
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your probability assessment to the current price. Trade only if your edge
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exceeds 5 percentage points.
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If you cannot classify the edge, skip the market. "Interesting" is not a trade.
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### Step 4: Calculate Position Size (Kelly Criterion)
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For each trade, calculate the optimal size:
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```
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edge = your_probability - market_price
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kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - market_price)
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half_kelly = kelly_fraction * 0.5
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position_size = portfolio_value * half_kelly
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```
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**Hard caps on position size:**
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- Never exceed 10% of portfolio on a single trade
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- Never exceed 5% on trades with confidence < 0.7
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- Never exceed 2% on news-driven trades (information decays fast)
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If Kelly says to bet more than the cap, use the cap. If Kelly says to bet
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zero or negative, DO NOT TRADE.
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### Step 5: Validate Against Risk Rules
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Before executing, check every rule:
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- [ ] Daily loss limit not exceeded (5% of portfolio)
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- [ ] Weekly loss limit not exceeded (10% of portfolio)
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- [ ] Maximum 5 open positions at once
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- [ ] No two positions in correlated markets (e.g., "Will X win?" and "Will X
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lose?" are the same bet)
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- [ ] Maximum drawdown from peak not exceeded (20%)
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- [ ] Position size within Kelly cap
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If ANY rule fails, do not trade. Log the skip with the reason.
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### Step 6: Document and Execute
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For every trade recommendation, output this exact format:
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```
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TRADE RECOMMENDATION
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====================
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Market: [market question]
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URL: [polymarket.com link]
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Side: [YES/NO]
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Entry Price: [current price]
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Size: [USDC amount]
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Confidence: [0.0-1.0]
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Edge Type: [arbitrage/momentum/mean-reversion/news-driven]
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Reasoning: [2-3 sentences explaining WHY this is an edge]
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Target: [exit price for profit]
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Stop Loss: [exit price for loss]
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Expected Value: [edge * size]
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Risk/Reward: [potential profit / potential loss]
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```
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Never recommend a trade without filling in every field.
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## When NOT to Trade
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Stop trading entirely if ANY of these conditions are true:
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- **Daily loss > 5% of portfolio**: Walk away. The market will be there tomorrow.
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- **Weekly loss > 10% of portfolio**: Stop for the rest of the week.
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- **Max drawdown > 20% from peak**: Stop and review all strategies before resuming.
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- **Three consecutive losses**: Pause and review. Are you following the methodology
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or improvising?
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- **No clear edge on any market**: Having no position IS a position. Cash is king.
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- **Market is resolving within 1 hour**: Too late. Prices are efficient near resolution.
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- **You feel compelled to "make it back"**: This is tilt. Stop immediately.
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## Common Mistakes to Avoid
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1. **Over-trading**: More trades does not equal more profit. Wait for clear edges.
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2. **Chasing**: A market moved 20 cents. The edge was 20 cents ago, not now.
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3. **Ignoring fees**: On fee-bearing markets (crypto 5-min/15-min), a 3% edge at
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p=0.50 is break-even after the 3.15% fee. Always check.
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4. **Correlated positions**: Holding YES on "Will X happen?" and YES on "X leads
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to Y" is double exposure to the same event. Count it as one position.
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5. **Anchoring to entry price**: Your entry price is irrelevant. The only question
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is: does this position have edge RIGHT NOW at the current price?
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6. **Averaging down without new information**: Doubling a losing bet just doubles
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the loss if you were wrong.
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7. **Holding through resolution with thin edge**: If your edge is 1-2% and the
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market resolves in hours, the risk/reward is terrible. Take the small loss.
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## Available Scripts
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### Generate Trade Recommendations (`scripts/advisor.py`)
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Scans markets, scores edges, and outputs ranked trade recommendations:
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```bash
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source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-strategy-advisor/scripts/advisor.py --top 5
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```
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With portfolio context (reads paper trader database):
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```bash
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source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-strategy-advisor/scripts/advisor.py --portfolio-db ~/.polymarket-paper/portfolio.db --top 5
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```
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Output: JSON array of trade recommendations sorted by expected value.
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### Backtest Engine (`scripts/backtest.py`)
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Comprehensive performance analysis and live-readiness assessment:
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```bash
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source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-strategy-advisor/scripts/backtest.py
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```
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Live-readiness check only:
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```bash
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source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-strategy-advisor/scripts/backtest.py --live-check
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```
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Output: total return, win rate, Sharpe ratio, max drawdown, profit factor,
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per-strategy breakdown, and READY/NOT READY assessment against CLAUDE.md
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prerequisites (20+ trades, >55% win rate, Sharpe >0.5, drawdown <15%).
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### Daily Performance Review (`scripts/daily_review.py`)
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Analyzes paper trading history and suggests improvements:
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```bash
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source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-strategy-advisor/scripts/daily_review.py --portfolio-db ~/.polymarket-paper/portfolio.db
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```
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Review past N days:
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```bash
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source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-strategy-advisor/scripts/daily_review.py --portfolio-db ~/.polymarket-paper/portfolio.db --days 7
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```
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Output: performance metrics, win/loss breakdown, strategy-level analysis,
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and actionable parameter adjustment suggestions.
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## Strategy References
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- `references/viable-strategies.md` -- Deep reference on the 4 profitable
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strategies with win rates, expected returns, and implementation details
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- `references/decision-framework.md` -- Complete decision tree for entries,
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exits, position sizing, and risk limits
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## Disclaimers
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- This skill provides analytical tools and educational frameworks only
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- Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results
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- Always paper trade new strategies before using real capital
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- Prediction market trading involves risk of total loss of invested capital
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