nidichaogequ
270 lines
7.0 KiB
Markdown
270 lines
7.0 KiB
Markdown
# Polymarket Reverse Arbitrage Bot
|
||
|
||
TypeScript automation for my Polymarket reverse strategy on **15-minute BTC/ETH Up or Down** markets.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## My Polymarket account
|
||
<img width="815" height="291" alt="image" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/0971eb6d-de7e-4f9a-82a1-14a2163db209" />
|
||
|
||
|
||
| | |
|
||
|---|---|
|
||
| **Profile** | [@odahoa](https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity) |
|
||
| **Username** | `odahoa` |
|
||
| **Proxy wallet** | `0xe2511c9e41c5e762887e538b1d6e7221807aa237` |
|
||
| **Markets** | `btc-updown-15m`, `eth-updown-15m` |
|
||
|
||
All activity, positions, and PnL live on my profile:
|
||
**https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity**
|
||
|
||
This bot trades **from that account** — it automates what I already do manually. It is not copy trading and does not watch any other wallet.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Overview
|
||
|
||
Polymarket runs 15-minute windows like:
|
||
|
||
> **Bitcoin Up or Down — 1:45PM–2:00PM ET**
|
||
|
||
Each window has two tokens:
|
||
|
||
| Token | Wins when |
|
||
|-------|-----------|
|
||
| **Up** | Price at end ≥ price at start |
|
||
| **Down** | Price at end < price at start |
|
||
|
||
Winning tokens pay **$1.00**. Losing tokens pay **$0.00**.
|
||
|
||
My strategy — the **reverse bot** — posts limit **BUY** orders on **both sides** every window:
|
||
|
||
1. **Cheap reversal side (7–10¢)** on the underdog outcome
|
||
2. **Expensive hedge side (90–95¢)** on the favorite outcome
|
||
|
||
That is the same pattern visible on my [activity tab](https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity): round limit prices (7¢, 8¢, 10¢ … 95¢), 20–90 shares per fill, no sells — hold to resolution.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Why "reverse"?
|
||
|
||
Early in a window, price often trends one way:
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
BTC pumps in first 10 minutes
|
||
→ Up token ~90–97¢ (favorite)
|
||
→ Down token ~3–10¢ (underdog)
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
The crowd prices the underdog as nearly dead. The **reverse bet** is: *it flips before the window closes*.
|
||
|
||
| Leg | Outcome | Entry | If it wins |
|
||
|-----|---------|-------|------------|
|
||
| **Reverse** | Underdog | 7–10¢ | ~10–14× |
|
||
| **Hedge** | Favorite | 90–95¢ | ~5–11% |
|
||
|
||
Only one side pays $1 per window. I run both legs because:
|
||
|
||
- Cheap fills are rare but pay huge when they hit.
|
||
- Hedge fills are smaller profit but hit more often.
|
||
- Over hundreds of windows, a few reversals cover many losses.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## How I trade (manual → bot)
|
||
|
||
From my account history:
|
||
|
||
| Pattern | Detail |
|
||
|---------|--------|
|
||
| Markets | BTC & ETH 15m Up/Down only |
|
||
| Order type | Limit BUY only — never sell |
|
||
| Cheap leg | Fills at 7–10¢ (sometimes 5–25¢) on underdog |
|
||
| Hedge leg | Fills at 90–95¢ on favorite |
|
||
| Both sides | Same window — e.g. Down @ 95¢ and Up @ 15¢ |
|
||
| Size | 20–90 shares per order |
|
||
|
||
The bot replaces hand-placing every limit order each window.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Bot logic
|
||
|
||
Every **5 seconds** (configurable):
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
1. Scan active btc-updown-15m / eth-updown-15m markets
|
||
2. Load Up & Down order books (CLOB API)
|
||
3. Underdog = outcome with lower best ask
|
||
4. Favorite = the other outcome
|
||
5. Post limit BUYs on underdog @ 7¢, 8¢, 9¢, 10¢
|
||
6. Post limit BUYs on favorite @ 90¢–95¢ (if hedge enabled)
|
||
7. Skip price levels already posted this session
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### Cheap leg — underdog @ 7–10¢
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
Down best ask = 4¢ → bot bids 7¢, 8¢, 9¢, 10¢ on Down
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
If Down reverses and wins:
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
90 shares × 8¢ = $7.20 in
|
||
90 shares × $1 = $90.00 out → +$82.80 (~1,150%)
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### Hedge leg — favorite @ 90–95¢
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
Up best ask = 97¢ → bot bids 90¢–95¢ on Up
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
If Up holds and wins:
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
52 shares × 95¢ = $49.40 in
|
||
52 shares × $1 = $52.00 out → +$2.60 (~5%)
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Example window
|
||
|
||
**Market:** Bitcoin Up or Down — 1:45–2:00 PM ET
|
||
**BTC pumped early** → Up favored, Down cheap
|
||
|
||
| Token | Book | Bot posts |
|
||
|-------|------|-----------|
|
||
| Up (favorite) | ask 97¢ | BUY limits @ 90–95¢ |
|
||
| Down (underdog) | ask 4¢ | BUY limits @ 7–10¢ |
|
||
|
||
| Result | Cheap leg | Hedge leg |
|
||
|--------|-----------|-----------|
|
||
| Up wins | Down → $0 | Up → small profit |
|
||
| Down reverses | Down → big profit | Up → $0 |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Return table
|
||
|
||
| Buy price | Payout | Return if win |
|
||
|-----------|--------|---------------|
|
||
| 7¢ | $1.00 | +1,329% |
|
||
| 8¢ | $1.00 | +1,150% |
|
||
| 9¢ | $1.00 | +1,011% |
|
||
| 10¢ | $1.00 | +900% |
|
||
| 95¢ | $1.00 | +5% |
|
||
|
||
Most 7–10¢ bets go to zero. Edge comes from occasional reversals at high multiples.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Quick start
|
||
|
||
```bash
|
||
git clone https://github.com/nidichaogequ/polymarket-reverse-arbitrage-bot
|
||
cd reverse-bot
|
||
npm install
|
||
cp .env.example .env
|
||
npm start # dry-run: logs orders, no submission
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### Go live on @odahoa
|
||
|
||
```env
|
||
DRY_RUN=false
|
||
PRIVATE_KEY=0x... # account signing key
|
||
FUNDER_ADDRESS=0xe2511c9e41c5e762887e538b1d6e7221807aa237 # @odahoa proxy wallet
|
||
SIGNATURE_TYPE=2
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
| `SIGNATURE_TYPE` | Use for |
|
||
|------------------|---------|
|
||
| `0` | EOA / MetaMask |
|
||
| `2` | Gnosis Safe proxy *(typical Polymarket account)* |
|
||
| `3` | POLY_1271 deposit wallet |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Config
|
||
|
||
### Strategy
|
||
|
||
| Variable | Default | Description |
|
||
|----------|---------|-------------|
|
||
| `CHEAP_BUY_MIN` | `0.07` | Low end of reversal bids |
|
||
| `CHEAP_BUY_MAX` | `0.10` | High end of reversal bids |
|
||
| `CHEAP_ORDER_USDC` | `10` | USDC per cheap limit order |
|
||
| `ENABLE_EXPENSIVE_HEDGE` | `true` | Post 90–95¢ favorite bids |
|
||
| `EXPENSIVE_BUY_MIN` | `0.90` | Low end of hedge bids |
|
||
| `EXPENSIVE_BUY_MAX` | `0.95` | High end of hedge bids |
|
||
| `EXPENSIVE_ORDER_USDC` | `50` | USDC per hedge limit order |
|
||
| `MAX_SHARES_PER_ORDER` | `90` | Max shares per order |
|
||
|
||
### Markets & timing
|
||
|
||
| Variable | Default | Description |
|
||
|----------|---------|-------------|
|
||
| `MARKET_SLUG_PREFIXES` | `btc-updown-15m,eth-updown-15m` | Markets to scan |
|
||
| `POLL_INTERVAL_MS` | `5000` | Scan interval |
|
||
| `MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MIN` | `0` | Start trading N min into window |
|
||
| `MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MAX` | `15` | Stop trading N min before close |
|
||
|
||
Trade only late window (when cheap tokens show up):
|
||
|
||
```env
|
||
MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MIN=3
|
||
MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MAX=12
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### Safety
|
||
|
||
| Variable | Default | Description |
|
||
|----------|---------|-------------|
|
||
| `DRY_RUN` | `true` | Log only — no real orders |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Project layout
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
reverse-bot/
|
||
├── src/
|
||
│ ├── index.ts # main loop
|
||
│ ├── market-scanner.ts # active 15m markets + books
|
||
│ ├── strategy.ts # underdog/favorite + limit prices
|
||
│ ├── trader.ts # CLOB order submission
|
||
│ └── config.ts
|
||
├── .env.example
|
||
└── package.json
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Commands
|
||
|
||
```bash
|
||
npm start # run bot
|
||
npm run dev # run with hot reload
|
||
npm run build # compile TypeScript
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Risks
|
||
|
||
- **Most cheap bids lose.** 7–10¢ tokens frequently expire worthless.
|
||
- **Limits may not fill.** Bidding 7¢ when ask is 4¢ waits for sellers.
|
||
- **Both legs can't both win.** One side always goes to $0.
|
||
- **Real money.** Test with `DRY_RUN=true` first.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Links
|
||
|
||
- My profile: https://polymarket.com/@odahoa
|
||
- My activity: https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity
|
||
- Polymarket settings: https://polymarket.com/settings
|