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About gdptools-feedstock
========================
# Polymarket Reverse Arbitrage Bot
Feedstock license: [BSD-3-Clause](https://github.com/conda-forge/gdptools-feedstock/blob/main/LICENSE.txt)
TypeScript automation for my Polymarket reverse strategy on **15-minute BTC/ETH Up or Down** markets.
Home: https://code.usgs.gov/wma/nhgf/toolsteam/gdptools
---
Package license: Unlicense
Summary: Gdptools
Current build status
====================
## My Polymarket account
<img width="815" height="291" alt="image" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/0971eb6d-de7e-4f9a-82a1-14a2163db209" />
<table><tr><td>All platforms:</td>
<td>
<a href="https://dev.azure.com/conda-forge/feedstock-builds/_build/latest?definitionId=17168&branchName=main">
<img src="https://dev.azure.com/conda-forge/feedstock-builds/_apis/build/status/gdptools-feedstock?branchName=main">
</a>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
| | |
|---|---|
| **Profile** | [@odahoa](https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity) |
| **Username** | `odahoa` |
| **Proxy wallet** | `0xe2511c9e41c5e762887e538b1d6e7221807aa237` |
| **Markets** | `btc-updown-15m`, `eth-updown-15m` |
Current release info
====================
All activity, positions, and PnL live on my profile:
**https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity**
| Name | Downloads | Version | Platforms |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [![Conda Recipe](https://img.shields.io/badge/recipe-gdptools-green.svg)](https://anaconda.org/conda-forge/gdptools) | [![Conda Downloads](https://img.shields.io/conda/dn/conda-forge/gdptools.svg)](https://anaconda.org/conda-forge/gdptools) | [![Conda Version](https://img.shields.io/conda/vn/conda-forge/gdptools.svg)](https://anaconda.org/conda-forge/gdptools) | [![Conda Platforms](https://img.shields.io/conda/pn/conda-forge/gdptools.svg)](https://anaconda.org/conda-forge/gdptools) |
This bot trades **from that account** — it automates what I already do manually. It is not copy trading and does not watch any other wallet.
Installing gdptools
===================
---
Installing `gdptools` from the `conda-forge` channel can be achieved by adding `conda-forge` to your channels with:
## Overview
Polymarket runs 15-minute windows like:
> **Bitcoin Up or Down — 1:45PM–2:00PM ET**
Each window has two tokens:
| Token | Wins when |
|-------|-----------|
| **Up** | Price at end ≥ price at start |
| **Down** | Price at end < price at start |
Winning tokens pay **$1.00**. Losing tokens pay **$0.00**.
My strategy — the **reverse bot** — posts limit **BUY** orders on **both sides** every window:
1. **Cheap reversal side (7–10¢)** on the underdog outcome
2. **Expensive hedge side (90–95¢)** on the favorite outcome
That is the same pattern visible on my [activity tab](https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity): round limit prices (7¢, 8¢, 10¢ … 95¢), 20–90 shares per fill, no sells — hold to resolution.
---
## Why "reverse"?
Early in a window, price often trends one way:
```
conda config --add channels conda-forge
conda config --set channel_priority strict
BTC pumps in first 10 minutes
→ Up token ~90–97¢ (favorite)
→ Down token ~3–10¢ (underdog)
```
Once the `conda-forge` channel has been enabled, `gdptools` can be installed with `conda`:
The crowd prices the underdog as nearly dead. The **reverse bet** is: *it flips before the window closes*.
| Leg | Outcome | Entry | If it wins |
|-----|---------|-------|------------|
| **Reverse** | Underdog | 7–10¢ | ~10–14× |
| **Hedge** | Favorite | 90–95¢ | ~5–11% |
Only one side pays $1 per window. I run both legs because:
- Cheap fills are rare but pay huge when they hit.
- Hedge fills are smaller profit but hit more often.
- Over hundreds of windows, a few reversals cover many losses.
---
## How I trade (manual → bot)
From my account history:
| Pattern | Detail |
|---------|--------|
| Markets | BTC & ETH 15m Up/Down only |
| Order type | Limit BUY only — never sell |
| Cheap leg | Fills at 7–10¢ (sometimes 5–25¢) on underdog |
| Hedge leg | Fills at 90–95¢ on favorite |
| Both sides | Same window — e.g. Down @ 95¢ and Up @ 15¢ |
| Size | 20–90 shares per order |
The bot replaces hand-placing every limit order each window.
---
## Bot logic
Every **5 seconds** (configurable):
```
conda install gdptools
1. Scan active btc-updown-15m / eth-updown-15m markets
2. Load Up & Down order books (CLOB API)
3. Underdog = outcome with lower best ask
4. Favorite = the other outcome
5. Post limit BUYs on underdog @ 7¢, 8¢, 9¢, 10¢
6. Post limit BUYs on favorite @ 90¢–95¢ (if hedge enabled)
7. Skip price levels already posted this session
```
or with `mamba`:
### Cheap leg — underdog @ 7–10¢
```
mamba install gdptools
Down best ask = 4¢ → bot bids 7¢, 8¢, 9¢, 10¢ on Down
```
It is possible to list all of the versions of `gdptools` available on your platform with `conda`:
If Down reverses and wins:
```
conda search gdptools --channel conda-forge
90 shares × 8¢ = $7.20 in
90 shares × $1 = $90.00 out → +$82.80 (~1,150%)
```
or with `mamba`:
### Hedge leg — favorite @ 90–95¢
```
mamba search gdptools --channel conda-forge
Up best ask = 97¢ → bot bids 90¢–95¢ on Up
```
Alternatively, `mamba repoquery` may provide more information:
If Up holds and wins:
```
# Search all versions available on your platform:
mamba repoquery search gdptools --channel conda-forge
# List packages depending on `gdptools`:
mamba repoquery whoneeds gdptools --channel conda-forge
# List dependencies of `gdptools`:
mamba repoquery depends gdptools --channel conda-forge
52 shares × 95¢ = $49.40 in
52 shares × $1 = $52.00 out → +$2.60 (~5%)
```
---
About conda-forge
=================
## Example window
[![Powered by
NumFOCUS](https://img.shields.io/badge/powered%20by-NumFOCUS-orange.svg?style=flat&colorA=E1523D&colorB=007D8A)](https://numfocus.org)
**Market:** Bitcoin Up or Down — 1:45–2:00 PM ET
**BTC pumped early** → Up favored, Down cheap
conda-forge is a community-led conda channel of installable packages.
In order to provide high-quality builds, the process has been automated into the
conda-forge GitHub organization. The conda-forge organization contains one repository
for each of the installable packages. Such a repository is known as a *feedstock*.
| Token | Book | Bot posts |
|-------|------|-----------|
| Up (favorite) | ask 97¢ | BUY limits @ 90–95¢ |
| Down (underdog) | ask 4¢ | BUY limits @ 7–10¢ |
A feedstock is made up of a conda recipe (the instructions on what and how to build
the package) and the necessary configurations for automatic building using freely
available continuous integration services. Thanks to the awesome service provided by
[Azure](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/devops/), [GitHub](https://github.com/),
[CircleCI](https://circleci.com/), [AppVeyor](https://www.appveyor.com/),
[Drone](https://cloud.drone.io/welcome), and [TravisCI](https://travis-ci.com/)
it is possible to build and upload installable packages to the
[conda-forge](https://anaconda.org/conda-forge) [anaconda.org](https://anaconda.org/)
channel for Linux, Windows and OSX respectively.
| Result | Cheap leg | Hedge leg |
|--------|-----------|-----------|
| Up wins | Down → $0 | Up → small profit |
| Down reverses | Down → big profit | Up → $0 |
To manage the continuous integration and simplify feedstock maintenance
[conda-smithy](https://github.com/conda-forge/conda-smithy) has been developed.
Using the ``conda-forge.yml`` within this repository, it is possible to re-render all of
this feedstock's supporting files (e.g. the CI configuration files) with ``conda smithy rerender``.
---
For more information please check the [conda-forge documentation](https://conda-forge.org/docs/).
## Return table
Terminology
===========
| Buy price | Payout | Return if win |
|-----------|--------|---------------|
| 7¢ | $1.00 | +1,329% |
| 8¢ | $1.00 | +1,150% |
| 9¢ | $1.00 | +1,011% |
| 10¢ | $1.00 | +900% |
| 95¢ | $1.00 | +5% |
**feedstock** - the conda recipe (raw material), supporting scripts and CI configuration.
Most 7–10¢ bets go to zero. Edge comes from occasional reversals at high multiples.
**conda-smithy** - the tool which helps orchestrate the feedstock.
Its primary use is in the construction of the CI ``.yml`` files
and simplify the management of *many* feedstocks.
---
**conda-forge** - the place where the feedstock and smithy live and work to
produce the finished article (built conda distributions)
## Quick start
```bash
git clone https://github.com/abwhaoms502/polymarket-reverse-arbitrage-bot
cd reverse-bot
npm install
cp .env.example .env
npm start # dry-run: logs orders, no submission
```
Updating gdptools-feedstock
===========================
### Go live on @odahoa
If you would like to improve the gdptools recipe or build a new
package version, please fork this repository and submit a PR. Upon submission,
your changes will be run on the appropriate platforms to give the reviewer an
opportunity to confirm that the changes result in a successful build. Once
merged, the recipe will be re-built and uploaded automatically to the
`conda-forge` channel, whereupon the built conda packages will be available for
everybody to install and use from the `conda-forge` channel.
Note that all branches in the conda-forge/gdptools-feedstock are
immediately built and any created packages are uploaded, so PRs should be based
on branches in forks and branches in the main repository should only be used to
build distinct package versions.
```env
DRY_RUN=false
PRIVATE_KEY=0x... # account signing key
FUNDER_ADDRESS=0xe2511c9e41c5e762887e538b1d6e7221807aa237 # @odahoa proxy wallet
SIGNATURE_TYPE=2
```
In order to produce a uniquely identifiable distribution:
* If the version of a package **is not** being increased, please add or increase
the [``build/number``](https://docs.conda.io/projects/conda-build/en/latest/resources/define-metadata.html#build-number-and-string).
* If the version of a package **is** being increased, please remember to return
the [``build/number``](https://docs.conda.io/projects/conda-build/en/latest/resources/define-metadata.html#build-number-and-string)
back to 0.
| `SIGNATURE_TYPE` | Use for |
|------------------|---------|
| `0` | EOA / MetaMask |
| `2` | Gnosis Safe proxy *(typical Polymarket account)* |
| `3` | POLY_1271 deposit wallet |
Feedstock Maintainers
=====================
---
* [@ocefpaf](https://github.com/ocefpaf/)
* [@rmcd-mscb](https://github.com/rmcd-mscb/)
## Config
### Strategy
| Variable | Default | Description |
|----------|---------|-------------|
| `CHEAP_BUY_MIN` | `0.07` | Low end of reversal bids |
| `CHEAP_BUY_MAX` | `0.10` | High end of reversal bids |
| `CHEAP_ORDER_USDC` | `10` | USDC per cheap limit order |
| `ENABLE_EXPENSIVE_HEDGE` | `true` | Post 90–95¢ favorite bids |
| `EXPENSIVE_BUY_MIN` | `0.90` | Low end of hedge bids |
| `EXPENSIVE_BUY_MAX` | `0.95` | High end of hedge bids |
| `EXPENSIVE_ORDER_USDC` | `50` | USDC per hedge limit order |
| `MAX_SHARES_PER_ORDER` | `90` | Max shares per order |
### Markets & timing
| Variable | Default | Description |
|----------|---------|-------------|
| `MARKET_SLUG_PREFIXES` | `btc-updown-15m,eth-updown-15m` | Markets to scan |
| `POLL_INTERVAL_MS` | `5000` | Scan interval |
| `MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MIN` | `0` | Start trading N min into window |
| `MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MAX` | `15` | Stop trading N min before close |
Trade only late window (when cheap tokens show up):
```env
MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MIN=3
MINUTES_BEFORE_CLOSE_MAX=12
```
### Safety
| Variable | Default | Description |
|----------|---------|-------------|
| `DRY_RUN` | `true` | Log only — no real orders |
---
## Project layout
```
reverse-bot/
├── src/
│ ├── index.ts # main loop
│ ├── market-scanner.ts # active 15m markets + books
│ ├── strategy.ts # underdog/favorite + limit prices
│ ├── trader.ts # CLOB order submission
│ └── config.ts
├── .env.example
└── package.json
```
---
## Commands
```bash
npm start # run bot
npm run dev # run with hot reload
npm run build # compile TypeScript
```
---
## Risks
- **Most cheap bids lose.** 7–10¢ tokens frequently expire worthless.
- **Limits may not fill.** Bidding 7¢ when ask is 4¢ waits for sellers.
- **Both legs can't both win.** One side always goes to $0.
- **Real money.** Test with `DRY_RUN=true` first.
---
## Links
- My profile: https://polymarket.com/@odahoa
- My activity: https://polymarket.com/@odahoa?tab=activity
- Polymarket settings: https://polymarket.com/settings