Add durable agent risk controls

api/state.js

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
-import { get, put } from "@vercel/blob";
+import { get, list, put } from "@vercel/blob";
 
 const STATE_PATH = process.env.PMA_STATE_PATH || "shared/state.json";
+const STATE_VERSION_PREFIX = process.env.PMA_STATE_VERSION_PREFIX || "shared/state-versions/";
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
 const PAPER_KEY = "pma_paper_accounts_v1";
@@ -9,12 +10,58 @@ const AGENT_IDS = ["value", "momentum", "favorite", "longshot", "diversifier", "
 const LIMITS = { closed: 80, history: 160, snapshots: 240, suggestions: 900, paperHistory: 120, paperSnapshots: 120, audit: 120 };
 
 async function readJsonBlob() {
+  const latest = await latestVersionedStateBlob();
+  if (latest) return latest;
   const blob = await get(STATE_PATH, { access: "private" });
   if (!blob || blob.statusCode !== 200 || !blob.stream) return null;
   const text = await new Response(blob.stream).text();
   return text ? JSON.parse(text) : null;
 }
 
+async function latestVersionedStateBlob() {
+  let cursor;
+  let newest = null;
+  do {
+    const page = await list({ prefix: STATE_VERSION_PREFIX, limit: 1000, cursor });
+    for (const blob of page.blobs || []) {
+      if (!newest || new Date(blob.uploadedAt).getTime() > new Date(newest.uploadedAt).getTime()) newest = blob;
+    }
+    cursor = page.cursor;
+  } while (cursor);
+  if (!newest) return null;
+  const blob = await get(newest.url, {
+    access: "private",
+    headers: { "cache-control": "no-cache" },
+  });
+  if (!blob || blob.statusCode !== 200 || !blob.stream) return null;
+  const text = await new Response(blob.stream).text();
+  return text ? JSON.parse(text) : null;
+}
+
+function cycleVersion(cycle = "") {
+  const m = String(cycle).match(/\|v(\d+)$/);
+  return m ? Number(m[1]) : 0;
+}
+
+function openPositionCount(st) {
+  if (!st || !st.agents) return 0;
+  return AGENT_IDS.reduce((sum, id) => sum + (Array.isArray(st.agents[id]?.positions) ? st.agents[id].positions.length : 0), 0);
+}
+
+function shouldRejectStaleAgentWrite(currentAgents, incomingAgents) {
+  if (!currentAgents || !incomingAgents) return false;
+  const currentCycle = currentAgents.last_cycle_hour || "";
+  const incomingCycle = incomingAgents.last_cycle_hour || "";
+  if (!currentCycle || !incomingCycle) return false;
+  const currentVersion = cycleVersion(currentCycle);
+  const incomingVersion = cycleVersion(incomingCycle);
+  if (incomingVersion < currentVersion) return true;
+  if (incomingVersion === currentVersion && incomingCycle < currentCycle) return true;
+  const currentOpen = openPositionCount(currentAgents);
+  const incomingOpen = openPositionCount(incomingAgents);
+  return incomingVersion === currentVersion && incomingCycle === currentCycle && currentOpen > 0 && incomingOpen === 0;
+}
+
 function agentStateFromItems(items) {
   if (!items || !items[AGENTS_KEY]) return null;
   try {
@@ -51,6 +98,8 @@ function compactSuggestion(s) {
     market_id: s.market_id, question: s.question, event: s.event, url: s.url, category: s.category,
     clob_yes: s.clob_yes, clob_no: s.clob_no, yes_price: s.yes_price, no_price: s.no_price,
     fair_value: s.fair_value, edge: s.edge, side: s.side, entry_price: s.entry_price,
+    net_edge: s.net_edge, friction: s.friction, chase_penalty: s.chase_penalty,
+    evidence_score: s.evidence_score, quality: s.quality,
     conviction: s.conviction, volume: s.volume, volume_24hr: s.volume_24hr, liquidity: s.liquidity,
     trade_ready: s.trade_ready, watch_only: s.watch_only,
     days_to_resolution: s.days_to_resolution, drivers: s.drivers, rationale: s.rationale,
@@ -130,7 +179,17 @@ export default async function handler(req, res) {
           return conflictResponse(res, "This cycle already has a cloud result", current);
         }
       }
+      if (!body.force && shouldRejectStaleAgentWrite(currentAgents, incomingAgents)) {
+        return conflictResponse(res, "Incoming state would replace newer active positions with stale cash-only data", current);
+      }
       const state = { version: 1, updated_at: new Date().toISOString(), items: compactItems(body.items) };
+      const versionedPath = `${STATE_VERSION_PREFIX}${Date.now()}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2)}.json`;
+      await put(versionedPath, JSON.stringify(state), {
+        access: "private",
+        allowOverwrite: false,
+        contentType: "application/json",
+        cacheControlMaxAge: 0,
+      });
       await put(STATE_PATH, JSON.stringify(state), {
         access: "private",
         allowOverwrite: true,

index.html

@@ -79,6 +79,8 @@ body:not(.personal-mode) [data-tab="live"]{display:none!important}
   padding:12px 14px;background:rgba(251,191,36,.08);color:#f8e7b0;font-size:13px}
 .personal-mode .personal-banner{display:block}
 .personal-banner b{color:#fff}
+.live-build-banner{display:block;margin:0 0 14px;padding:11px 14px;border-radius:14px;border:1px solid rgba(124,140,255,.30);background:linear-gradient(135deg,rgba(124,140,255,.14),rgba(56,210,230,.08));color:#dbeafe;font-size:12.5px}
+.live-build-banner b{color:#fff}
 
 /* ---------- hero ---------- */
 .hero{position:relative;border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:22px;padding:34px 32px;margin:14px 0 22px;
@@ -338,7 +340,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <nav class="topnav">
     <div class="brand">
       <div class="logo">🏆</div>
-      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · strategies, copycats &amp; whales</div><div class="build-badge">Top 5,000 analysis · v16</div></div>
+      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · strategies, copycats &amp; whales</div><div class="build-badge">Risk-calibrated · v20</div></div>
     </div>
     <div class="tabs" id="tabs">
       <button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -360,6 +362,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
     <b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
   </div>
+  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build v20 active:</b> agents scan the 500 most active markets, trade only positive after-cost signals, avoid fast-settling event bets, and cap risk by position, category, and daily drawdown.</div>
 
   <!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
   <section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -374,12 +377,12 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
         <g fill="#d9b4ff"><circle cx="380" cy="40" r="6"/></g>
       </svg>
       <h1>Ten AI agents race to <span class="grad">beat the market</span></h1>
-      <p>Five in-house strategies, a copycat that follows the strongest MACD/momentum profile, and four agents that mirror the live positions of the top traders on Polymarket — all paper-trading for the top of the leaderboard.</p>
+      <p>Each cycle loads the 500 most active Polymarket markets, ranks them by activity, liquidity, timing, and estimated price gap, then lets agents trade from that tighter pool.</p>
       <div class="badges">
         <span class="hbadge">🏆 10 competing agents</span>
-        <span class="hbadge">🐋 Copies real Polymarket whales</span>
-        <span class="hbadge">🐒 Copycat meta-agent</span>
-        <span class="hbadge">🔴 Live data</span>
+        <span class="hbadge">Top 500 active markets</span>
+        <span class="hbadge">Ranked by activity + gap</span>
+        <span class="hbadge">Live Polymarket data</span>
       </div>
     </div>
 
@@ -714,8 +717,8 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
     <div class="card" style="margin-top:16px">
       <div class="card-h"><h3>The live cycle</h3></div>
       <ol class="steps">
-        <li><b>Fetch</b> — page through every active Polymarket market and tag each by category.</li>
-        <li><b>Score</b> — rank every market 0–100 by conviction and estimate its edge vs. a fair-value model.</li>
+        <li><b>Fetch</b> — load the 500 most active Polymarket markets and tag each by category.</li>
+        <li><b>Score</b> — rank those active markets 0–100 by conviction and estimate edge vs. a fair-value model.</li>
         <li><b>Suggest</b> — surface the strongest picks per category with a plain-English rationale.</li>
         <li><b>Compete</b> — the strategy agents trade the same suggestions their own way, stop-loss weak positions, scale out through gain-stop tiers, exit stale or fading trades, then snapshot equity.</li>
       </ol>
@@ -740,7 +743,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   </section>
 
   <footer>
-    Build top-5000-analysis-v16 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma API · Not financial advice ·
+    Build durable-risk-v20 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma API · Not financial advice ·
     <a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
   </footer>
 </div>
@@ -767,7 +770,7 @@ const EXIT_STALE_DAYS = 10;
 const EXIT_RESOLUTION_DAYS = 2;
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
-const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 16;
+const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 20;
 const FOCUS_KEY = "pma_focus_v1";
 const VIEW_KEY = "pma_view_v1";
 const PF_SORT_KEY = "pma_portfolio_sort_v1";
@@ -930,12 +933,13 @@ function classifyCategory(tags){
   for(const [cat,keys] of CATEGORY_RULES){if(slugs.some(s=>keys.includes(s)))return cat;}
   return "Other";
 }
-function normalizeMarket(raw){
+function normalizeMarket(raw,{allowClosed=false}={}){
   const outcomes=parseJsonField(raw.outcomes);
   const prices=parseJsonField(raw.outcomePrices).map(p=>toNum(p));
   if(outcomes.length!==2||prices.length!==2)return null;
-  if(raw.acceptingOrders===false||raw.closed)return null;
-  const yes=prices[0]; if(yes<=0||yes>=1)return null;
+  if(!allowClosed&&(raw.acceptingOrders===false||raw.closed))return null;
+  const yes=prices[0];
+  if(!Number.isFinite(yes)||yes<0||yes>1||(!allowClosed&&(yes<=0||yes>=1)))return null;
   const events=raw.events||[]; const ev=events.length?events[0]:{};
   const tags=Array.isArray(raw.tags)?raw.tags:[];
   return {category:classifyCategory(tags),tags:tags.map(t=>t.label).filter(Boolean).slice(0,4),
@@ -945,6 +949,7 @@ function normalizeMarket(raw){
     volume:toNum(raw.volumeNum||raw.volume),volume_24hr:toNum(raw.volume24hr),volume_1wk:toNum(raw.volume1wk),
     liquidity:toNum(raw.liquidityNum||raw.liquidity),end_date:raw.endDateIso||raw.endDate,
     days_to_resolution:daysUntil(raw.endDate),image:raw.image||"",
+    closed:Boolean(raw.closed),accepting_orders:raw.acceptingOrders!==false,
     url:ev.slug?`https://polymarket.com/event/${ev.slug}`:""};
 }
 async function fetchMarkets(pages=Infinity,perPage=100,onProgress=null){
@@ -980,7 +985,7 @@ async function fetchMarkets(pages=Infinity,perPage=100,onProgress=null){
   return all.map(normalizeMarket).filter(m=>m&&m.question);
 }
 async function fetchMarketPrice(id){
-  try{const r=await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets/${id}`);if(!r.ok)return null;return normalizeMarket(await r.json());}
+  try{const r=await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets/${id}`);if(!r.ok)return null;return normalizeMarket(await r.json(),{allowClosed:true});}
   catch(e){return null;}
 }
 
@@ -992,11 +997,16 @@ const MIN_SCOUT_VOLUME=1500;
 const MIN_SCOUT_LIQUIDITY=150;
 const MIN_SCOUT_EDGE=0.006;
 const MIN_ENTRY_EDGE=0.032;
+const MIN_SELECTIVE_ENTRY_EDGE=0.022;
 const MIN_ENTRY_DAYS=3.0;
 const EDGE_SCALE=0.13;
 const MAX_STRATEGY_POSITIONS=16;
+const MAX_NEW_POSITION_PCT=0.035;
+const MAX_CATEGORY_EXPOSURE_PCT=0.20;
+const MAX_CYCLE_DRAWDOWN_PCT=3;
 const MAX_ACTIVE_MARKET_PAGES=1000;
-const MARKET_ANALYSIS_LIMIT=5000;
+const MARKET_ANALYSIS_LIMIT=500;
+const ACTIVE_MARKET_FETCH_LIMIT=500;
 const SUGGESTION_TOTAL=900;
 const SUGGESTION_PER_CATEGORY=180;
 const VISIBLE_SUGGESTIONS=900;
@@ -1077,6 +1087,20 @@ function selectMarketsForAnalysis(markets,limit=MARKET_ANALYSIS_LIMIT){
     .slice(0,limit);
 }
 function timingSignal(d){if(d==null)return 0.4;if(d<1)return 0.1;if(d<=3)return 0.5;if(d<=90)return 1.0-(d-3)/87.0*0.4;return 0.35;}
+function fastSettlementRisk(m){
+  const text=`${m&&m.question||""} ${m&&m.event||""}`.toLowerCase();
+  if(/\bexact score\b|\bscore:\s*\d|\bposts? \d+-\d+|\bnumber of (tweets|posts)\b/.test(text))return true;
+  if(/\bvs\.?\b/.test(text)&&(m.days_to_resolution==null||m.days_to_resolution<7))return true;
+  if((m&&m.category)==="Sports"){
+    if(/\bwin on \d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}\b|\bmatch winner\b/.test(text))return true;
+    if(m.days_to_resolution==null||m.days_to_resolution<7)return true;
+  }
+  return false;
+}
+function effectiveEntryEdge(s){
+  const net=Math.abs(Number(s&&s.net_edge));
+  return Number.isFinite(net)?net:0;
+}
 function analyzeMarket(m,realWorldSignals={}){
   if(m.volume<MIN_SCOUT_VOLUME||m.liquidity<MIN_SCOUT_LIQUIDITY)return null;
   const p=m.yes_price,fair=fairValue(m),edgeYes=fair-p,edge=Math.abs(edgeYes),policy=categoryPolicy(m.category);
@@ -1087,10 +1111,15 @@ function analyzeMarket(m,realWorldSignals={}){
   const mis=Math.min(1,absNet/EDGE_SCALE);
   const conviction=+((W.LIQ*liq+W.MOM*mom+W.MIS*mis+W.TIME*timing)*82+evidence.score*18).toFixed(1);
   const minEdge=Math.max(MIN_ENTRY_EDGE,policy.minEdge);
-  const tradeReady=absNet>=minEdge&&m.volume>=Math.max(MIN_VOLUME,policy.minVol)&&m.liquidity>=Math.max(MIN_LIQUIDITY,policy.minLiq)&&evidence.score>=policy.minEvidence;
+  const strictTradeReady=absNet>=minEdge&&m.volume>=Math.max(MIN_VOLUME,policy.minVol)&&m.liquidity>=Math.max(MIN_LIQUIDITY,policy.minLiq)&&evidence.score>=policy.minEvidence;
+  const jumpRisk=fastSettlementRisk(m);
+  const selectiveTradeReady=absNet>=MIN_SELECTIVE_ENTRY_EDGE&&conviction>=62&&m.volume>=MIN_VOLUME&&m.liquidity>=MIN_LIQUIDITY&&evidence.score>=0.50&&m.yes_price>=0.08&&m.yes_price<=0.92&&!jumpRisk;
+  const tradeReady=(strictTradeReady||selectiveTradeReady)&&!jumpRisk;
   let side=edgeYes>=0?"YES":"NO",entry=side==="YES"?p:m.no_price,rationale;
-  if(tradeReady&&edgeYes>0){rationale=`Trade-ready after costs: fair value ${pct(fair)} vs market ${pct(p)} leaves ${(absNet*100).toFixed(1)}c net edge for YES after liquidity, chase, and ${m.category} evidence checks.`;}
+  if(selectiveTradeReady&&!strictTradeReady){rationale=`Selective BUY from top-500 active scan: raw gap ${(edge*100).toFixed(1)}c, conviction ${Math.round(conviction)}, high activity/liquidity, and evidence ${Math.round(evidence.score*100)}. Net edge is conservative, so sizing stays disciplined.`;}
+  else if(tradeReady&&edgeYes>0){rationale=`Trade-ready after costs: fair value ${pct(fair)} vs market ${pct(p)} leaves ${(absNet*100).toFixed(1)}c net edge for YES after liquidity, chase, and ${m.category} evidence checks.`;}
   else if(tradeReady&&edgeYes<0){rationale=`Trade-ready after costs: fair value ${pct(fair)} vs market ${pct(p)} makes YES look overpriced; NO has ${(absNet*100).toFixed(1)}c net edge after penalties.`;}
+  else if(jumpRisk){rationale="Watch only: this market can jump directly to settlement before an hourly stop can protect the position, so agents will not buy it.";}
   else{rationale=`Watch only: raw gap ${(edge*100).toFixed(1)}c becomes ${(absNet*100).toFixed(1)}c after friction/chase/category penalties, so agents need stronger evidence before buying.`;}
   const drivers=[policy.label];
   if(liq>0.6)drivers.push("deep/liquid market");
@@ -1103,9 +1132,9 @@ function analyzeMarket(m,realWorldSignals={}){
     clob_yes:(m.clob_token_ids||[])[0]||null,clob_no:(m.clob_token_ids||[])[1]||null,
     yes_price:p,no_price:m.no_price,fair_value:+fair.toFixed(4),edge:+edgeYes.toFixed(4),
     net_edge:netEdge,friction:+friction.toFixed(4),chase_penalty:+chase.toFixed(4),evidence_score:+evidence.score.toFixed(2),
-    quality:tradeReady?"EV+":"watch",
+    quality:strictTradeReady?"EV+":(tradeReady?"selective":"watch"),
     side,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),conviction,volume:m.volume,volume_24hr:m.volume_24hr,liquidity:m.liquidity,
-    trade_ready:tradeReady,
+    trade_ready:tradeReady,jump_risk:jumpRisk,
     days_to_resolution:m.days_to_resolution!=null?+m.days_to_resolution.toFixed(1):null,drivers,rationale};
 }
 const pct=(x)=>Math.round(x*100)+"%";
@@ -1197,7 +1226,7 @@ function compactSuggestionForSync(s){
     fair_value:s.fair_value,edge:s.edge,side:s.side,entry_price:s.entry_price,
     net_edge:s.net_edge,friction:s.friction,chase_penalty:s.chase_penalty,evidence_score:s.evidence_score,quality:s.quality,
     conviction:s.conviction,volume:s.volume,volume_24hr:s.volume_24hr,liquidity:s.liquidity,
-    trade_ready:s.trade_ready,watch_only:s.watch_only,
+    trade_ready:s.trade_ready,watch_only:s.watch_only,jump_risk:s.jump_risk,
     days_to_resolution:s.days_to_resolution,drivers:s.drivers,rationale:s.rationale,
   };
 }
@@ -1431,8 +1460,15 @@ function adaptiveDecision(cfg,p,rank,total,leaderEq){
     reason+=` Emotion layer: alarm keeps it from revenge trading.`;
   }
   if((p.cash/Math.max(eq,1))<0.12){maxNew=Math.max(1,Math.min(maxNew,2));reason+=" Cash is tight, so new entries are rationed.";}
-  const maxCap=cfg.kind==="whale"?0.16:0.12;
-  return {mode,reason,emotion:emo.mood,urgency:+emo.urgency.toFixed(2),minConv:Math.max(0,Math.round(minConv)),maxNew:Math.max(1,Math.round(maxNew)),maxFrac:+Math.min(maxCap,Math.max(0.01,maxFrac)).toFixed(3),reserve};
+  const todaySnaps=(p.snapshots||[]).filter(s=>s.date===todayStr());
+  const cycleStart=todaySnaps.length?Number(todaySnaps[0].equity||eq):eq;
+  const cycleDrawdown=cycleStart>0?(eq/cycleStart-1)*100:0;
+  if(cycleDrawdown<=-MAX_CYCLE_DRAWDOWN_PCT){
+    mode="Daily Risk Pause";maxNew=0;reserve=1;
+    reason=`down ${Math.abs(cycleDrawdown).toFixed(1)}% since today's first snapshot, so it will not add risk until the next trading day.`;
+  }
+  const maxCap=cfg.kind==="whale"?0.03:MAX_NEW_POSITION_PCT;
+  return {mode,reason,emotion:emo.mood,urgency:+emo.urgency.toFixed(2),minConv:Math.max(0,Math.round(minConv)),maxNew:Math.max(0,Math.round(maxNew)),maxFrac:+Math.min(maxCap,Math.max(0.01,maxFrac)).toFixed(3),reserve};
 }
 const stopKey=(posOrId)=>typeof posOrId==="string"?posOrId:String(posOrId.asset||posOrId.market_id||"");
 const hasStoppedToday=(p,posOrId)=>p.stopped&&p.stopped[stopKey(posOrId)]===logDay();
@@ -1577,6 +1613,7 @@ function daysHeld(pos){
   return Math.max(0,(end-start)/86400000);
 }
 function exitReason(pos,fresh,analysis,cfg){
+  if(fastSettlementRisk(fresh))return "Risk policy removed fast-settling event exposure";
   if(fresh.days_to_resolution!=null&&fresh.days_to_resolution<=EXIT_RESOLUTION_DAYS)return `Close before resolution (${fresh.days_to_resolution.toFixed(1)}d left)`;
   if(daysHeld(pos)>=EXIT_STALE_DAYS)return `Stale exit after ${Math.floor(daysHeld(pos))} days`;
   if(!analysis)return null;
@@ -1591,15 +1628,21 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false}={}){
   for(const pos of p.positions){
     const fresh=priceMap[pos.market_id];
     if(fresh==null){
-      closePosition(p,pos,"Settled/removed market");
+      pos.price_status="unavailable";
+      stillOpen.push(pos);
       continue;
     }
     const price=pos.side==="YES"?fresh.yes_price:fresh.no_price;
     pos.current_price=+price.toFixed(4);pos.value=+(pos.shares*price).toFixed(2);
     pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2);
+    delete pos.price_status;
     for(const stopTier of triggeredStopLosses(pos))scaleStopLossPosition(p,pos,stopTier);
     if(pos._closedByStop){delete pos._closedByStop;continue;}
     for(const gainTier of triggeredGainStops(pos))takeProfitPosition(p,pos,gainTier);
+    if(fresh.closed||fresh.accepting_orders===false){
+      closePosition(p,pos,"Market settled","CLOSE");
+      continue;
+    }
     if(policyExits){
       const reason=exitReason(pos,fresh,analyzeMarket(fresh),cfg);
       if(reason){closePosition(p,pos,reason,"EXIT");continue;}
@@ -1677,13 +1720,13 @@ function reduceStrategyOverlap(st){
 function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds,peerStats=null){
   const d=decision||{minConv:cfg.minConv,maxNew:cfg.maxNew,maxFrac:cfg.maxFrac,reserve:0.05};
   p.lastDecision=decision||null;
-  if((p.positions||[]).length>=MAX_STRATEGY_POSITIONS)return [];
+  if((p.positions||[]).length>=MAX_STRATEGY_POSITIONS||d.maxNew<=0)return [];
   const avoid=avoidMarketIds||new Set();
   const cands=rankedSugs.map(s=>peerAdjustedSuggestion(s,peerStats)).filter(s=>s.trade_ready&&(s.side==="YES"||s.side==="NO")&&s.peer_conviction>=d.minConv
     &&s.conviction>=48&&s.entry_price>=0.08&&s.entry_price<=0.92
-    &&Math.abs(s.net_edge!=null?s.net_edge:s.edge)>=MIN_ENTRY_EDGE&&(s.days_to_resolution==null||s.days_to_resolution>=MIN_ENTRY_DAYS)
+    &&effectiveEntryEdge(s)>=MIN_SELECTIVE_ENTRY_EDGE&&(s.days_to_resolution==null||s.days_to_resolution>=MIN_ENTRY_DAYS)
     &&s.volume>=MIN_VOLUME&&s.liquidity>=MIN_LIQUIDITY&&(s.volume_24hr>=500||s.conviction>=62)
-    &&(s.evidence_score==null||s.evidence_score>=0.50)
+    &&(s.evidence_score==null||s.evidence_score>=0.40||s.conviction>=62)
     &&!avoid.has(String(s.market_id))&&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&!hasStoppedToday(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus))
     .sort((a,b)=>(b.peer_conviction-a.peer_conviction)||((b.peer_boost||0)-(a.peer_boost||0)));
   let opened=0,openedIds=[];
@@ -1694,10 +1737,12 @@ function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds,peerStats=
     if(investable<=50)break;
     let frac;
     if(cfg.flat){frac=d.maxFrac;}
-    else{const base=(s.peer_conviction/100)*Math.min(1,Math.abs(s.net_edge!=null?s.net_edge:s.edge)/EDGE_SCALE);frac=Math.min(d.maxFrac,cfg.kelly*base);}
+    else{const base=(s.peer_conviction/100)*Math.min(1,effectiveEntryEdge(s)/EDGE_SCALE);frac=Math.min(d.maxFrac,cfg.kelly*base);}
     if(s.peer_boost<0)frac*=0.82;
     if(s.peer_boost>0&&decision&&decision.urgency>0.65)frac*=1.08;
     let stake=Math.min(eq*frac,investable);
+    const categoryValue=(p.positions||[]).filter(pos=>(pos.category||"Other")===(s.category||"Other")).reduce((sum,pos)=>sum+Number(pos.value||0),0);
+    stake=Math.min(stake,Math.max(0,eq*MAX_CATEGORY_EXPOSURE_PCT-categoryValue));
     if(stake<50)continue;
     const entry=s.entry_price; if(entry<=0||entry>=1)continue;
     const shares=+(stake/entry).toFixed(2),cost=+(shares*entry).toFixed(2);
@@ -1797,6 +1842,10 @@ function rawPositionUrl(p){
   const slug=p.eventSlug||p.event_slug||p.slug||p.marketSlug||p.market_slug;
   return slug?`https://polymarket.com/event/${slug}`:marketSearchUrl(p.title||p.question||"");
 }
+function riskyCopiedMarket(title){
+  const text=String(title||"").toLowerCase();
+  return /\bexact score\b|\bscore:\s*\d|\bvs\.?\b|\bwin on \d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}\b|\bposts? \d+-\d+/.test(text);
+}
 async function discoverWhales(){
   const picked=[];
   try{
@@ -1835,7 +1884,7 @@ async function runWhaleAgent(p,wallet,decision){
   }
   p.positions=keep;
   const maxNew=Math.min(d.maxNew||6,4),maxFrac=Math.min(d.maxFrac||0.10,0.12),reserve=Math.max(d.reserve||0.14,0.12);
-  const targets=[...tps].filter(t=>t.curPrice>=0.12&&t.curPrice<=0.88&&t.value>=20).sort((a,b)=>b.value-a.value).slice(0,maxNew); // copy their strongest liquid bets, adapted by stance
+  const targets=[...tps].filter(t=>t.curPrice>=0.15&&t.curPrice<=0.85&&t.value>=100&&!riskyCopiedMarket(t.title)).sort((a,b)=>b.value-a.value).slice(0,maxNew);
   const book=targets.reduce((s,t)=>s+t.value,0)||1;
   for(const t of targets){
     if(hasAsset(p,t.asset)||hasStoppedToday(p,t.asset))continue;
@@ -1882,7 +1931,9 @@ function runCopycat(p,leader,priceMap,candidate=null){
     }else keep.push(pos);
   }
   p.positions=keep;
-  const leaderPicks=leader.positions.filter(x=>(x.unrealized_pnl||0)>=-50&&(x.current_price||0)>0.05&&(x.current_price||0)<0.95)
+  const leaderPicks=leader.positions.filter(x=>(x.unrealized_pnl||0)>=-50&&(x.current_price||0)>0.08&&(x.current_price||0)<0.92
+      &&x.quality==="EV+"&&Math.abs(Number(x.net_edge||0))>=MIN_ENTRY_EDGE&&daysHeld(x)<=2
+      &&Number(x.current_price||0)<=Number(x.entry_price||0)*1.10&&!fastSettlementRisk(x))
     .sort((a,b)=>((b.unrealized_pnl||0)/(b.cost||1))-((a.unrealized_pnl||0)/(a.cost||1))||((b.conviction||0)-(a.conviction||0))||((b.value||b.cost)-(a.value||a.cost)))
     .slice(0,copyLimit);
   const book=leaderPicks.reduce((s,x)=>s+(x.value||x.cost),0)||1;
@@ -1977,7 +2028,7 @@ async function backtestWhales(st,dates){
   }
   SIM_DAY=null;
 }
-/* Full day-by-day backtest: for each of the past 7 days, rebuild every market's
+/* Full day-by-day backtest: for each of the past 7 days, rebuild each sampled market's
    state from that day's real price (+ correct time-to-resolution), re-run the
    scoring engine, and step every strategy agent through a day of trading.
    NOTE: volume/liquidity signals use current values as a proxy — Polymarket
@@ -2048,10 +2099,10 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
       return {suggestions:(loadSuggestions().suggestions||[]).length,skipped:true,hour};
     }
     SNAP_TS=nowIso();
-    setStatus("fetching markets…",true);
-    const markets=await fetchMarkets(Infinity,100,count=>setStatus(`fetching all active markets (${count})…`,true));
+    setStatus("loading the 500 most active markets…",true);
+    const markets=await fetchMarkets(Math.ceil(ACTIVE_MARKET_FETCH_LIMIT/100),100,count=>setStatus(`loaded ${Math.min(count,ACTIVE_MARKET_FETCH_LIMIT).toLocaleString()} of 500 active markets…`,true));
     const analysisMarkets=selectMarketsForAnalysis(markets);
-    setStatus(`selected top ${analysisMarkets.length.toLocaleString()} markets for analysis…`,true);
+    setStatus(`analyzing ${analysisMarkets.length.toLocaleString()} most-active markets…`,true);
     setStatus("checking real-world context…",true);
     const realWorldSignals=await fetchRealWorldSignals(analysisMarkets);
     setStatus("analyzing expected value…",true);
@@ -2452,8 +2503,8 @@ function renderSuggestions(){
   const scanned=Number(data.market_count||0).toLocaleString();
   const analyzed=Number(data.analyzed_count||data.market_count||0).toLocaleString();
   $("focusNote").textContent=focus==="All"
-    ? `Scanned ${scanned} active markets, analyzed the top ${analyzed} by activity/liquidity/gap, and kept ${all.length} ideas (${buyCount} BUY, ${watchCount} WATCH). Showing ${filtered.length}; agents trade only EV+ ideas after liquidity, chase, and real-world evidence checks. Avg evidence ${evAvg}.`
-    : `Scanned ${scanned} active markets and analyzed the top ${analyzed}. Showing ${filtered.length} of ${pool.length} ${focus} ideas; agents only open EV+ BUY ${focus} positions while this is selected.`;
+    ? `Loaded the ${scanned} most active markets, analyzed ${analyzed} by activity/liquidity/gap, and kept ${all.length} ideas (${buyCount} BUY, ${watchCount} WATCH). Showing ${filtered.length}; agents trade only EV+ ideas after liquidity, chase, and real-world evidence checks. Avg evidence ${evAvg}.`
+    : `Loaded the ${scanned} most active markets and analyzed ${analyzed}. Showing ${filtered.length} of ${pool.length} ${focus} ideas; agents only open EV+ BUY ${focus} positions while this is selected.`;
   if(!filtered.length){root.innerHTML=`<div class="empty" style="grid-column:1/-1">No ${esc(focus)} suggestions in this live batch.</div>`;return;}
   root.innerHTML=filtered.map(s=>{
     const col=catColor(s.category);