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Retire failed maker capital path
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@@ -151,19 +151,24 @@ passed the chronological path screen at 25% of the present reward estimate, but
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both did so without an adverse historical touch; this prioritizes shadow
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research and does not authorize capital.
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Maker research version 2 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow
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Maker research version 3 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow
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quote pairs selected by the shared reward-book audit. Token histories are fetched
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in batches, so the learner no longer silently ignores quotes after the first ten
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markets. A later live
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cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history or a current
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book cross. A one-hour executable exit grades one-sided touches after a
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conservative half-cent cost, while paired touches and unfilled attempts are also
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retained in one shared cross-agent ledger and clustered by Polymarket event. Capital exposure can only
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resume after at least 20 current-strategy event clusters in the matching
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category, spread, and estimated reward-yield cohorts have positive 90% confidence
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bounds and at least three distinct-event completed pairs, with any mature losing cohort acting as a veto. There is
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no capital-backed exploration lane. Existing paper inventory from prior builds
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is still reconciled honestly. The engine does not credit hypothetical rewards.
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markets. A live cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history
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or a current book cross. After the first one-sided touch, the shadow engine now
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buys the complement only when the current executable ask locks a positive margin
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after modeled cost; otherwise it grades an immediate executable exit. It no
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longer waits with adverse one-sided shadow inventory.
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The August 21 expanded audit loaded both token histories for all 500 requested
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markets, formed 7,335 observations, and tested 6,048 wait and immediate-hedge
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rules. Zero passed training, validation, or untouched holdout. The separate
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reward-assisted stress test also found zero passing candidates. Maker capital is
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therefore disabled even if a small live cohort appears positive; those outcomes
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remain research evidence and cannot override the failed independent backtest.
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Existing paper inventory from prior maker versions is still reconciled honestly.
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There is no capital-backed exploration lane, and the engine does not credit
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hypothetical rewards.
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See Polymarket's official [fees](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees),
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[maker rebates](https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/maker-rebates), and
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[liquidity rewards](https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/liquidity-rewards)
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@@ -364,6 +369,13 @@ personal cohort or increase current risk. Forward directional evidence from
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Strategies 51-59 remains compatible because the signal and checkpoint policy
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did not change.
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Build 84 retires maker capital after the expanded 500-market audit found zero
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validated winners among 6,048 wait and immediate-hedge rules. New maker work is
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zero-capital lock-or-exit research: after one resting bid touches, the engine
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records a complementary hedge only when the current executable ask locks a net
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profit; otherwise it grades an immediate exit. A positive in-app cohort cannot
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reactivate capital without a separately approved chronological backtest.
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Build 77 separates the directional learner's evidence lineage from the global
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strategy release. Code-history verification found the same trend/reversal
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generator and 24-hour/72-hour grading policy in Strategy 51 through Strategy
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