Retire failed maker capital path

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-21 15:47:33 -04:00
parent 55ab1f02ea
commit ed140548d2
3 changed files with 115 additions and 45 deletions
+23 -11
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@@ -151,19 +151,24 @@ passed the chronological path screen at 25% of the present reward estimate, but
both did so without an adverse historical touch; this prioritizes shadow
research and does not authorize capital.
Maker research version 2 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow
Maker research version 3 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow
quote pairs selected by the shared reward-book audit. Token histories are fetched
in batches, so the learner no longer silently ignores quotes after the first ten
markets. A later live
cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history or a current
book cross. A one-hour executable exit grades one-sided touches after a
conservative half-cent cost, while paired touches and unfilled attempts are also
retained in one shared cross-agent ledger and clustered by Polymarket event. Capital exposure can only
resume after at least 20 current-strategy event clusters in the matching
category, spread, and estimated reward-yield cohorts have positive 90% confidence
bounds and at least three distinct-event completed pairs, with any mature losing cohort acting as a veto. There is
no capital-backed exploration lane. Existing paper inventory from prior builds
is still reconciled honestly. The engine does not credit hypothetical rewards.
markets. A live cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history
or a current book cross. After the first one-sided touch, the shadow engine now
buys the complement only when the current executable ask locks a positive margin
after modeled cost; otherwise it grades an immediate executable exit. It no
longer waits with adverse one-sided shadow inventory.
The August 21 expanded audit loaded both token histories for all 500 requested
markets, formed 7,335 observations, and tested 6,048 wait and immediate-hedge
rules. Zero passed training, validation, or untouched holdout. The separate
reward-assisted stress test also found zero passing candidates. Maker capital is
therefore disabled even if a small live cohort appears positive; those outcomes
remain research evidence and cannot override the failed independent backtest.
Existing paper inventory from prior maker versions is still reconciled honestly.
There is no capital-backed exploration lane, and the engine does not credit
hypothetical rewards.
See Polymarket's official [fees](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees),
[maker rebates](https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/maker-rebates), and
[liquidity rewards](https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/liquidity-rewards)
@@ -364,6 +369,13 @@ personal cohort or increase current risk. Forward directional evidence from
Strategies 51-59 remains compatible because the signal and checkpoint policy
did not change.
Build 84 retires maker capital after the expanded 500-market audit found zero
validated winners among 6,048 wait and immediate-hedge rules. New maker work is
zero-capital lock-or-exit research: after one resting bid touches, the engine
records a complementary hedge only when the current executable ask locks a net
profit; otherwise it grades an immediate exit. A positive in-app cohort cannot
reactivate capital without a separately approved chronological backtest.
Build 77 separates the directional learner's evidence lineage from the global
strategy release. Code-history verification found the same trend/reversal
generator and 24-hour/72-hour grading policy in Strategy 51 through Strategy