From ed140548d20519a8b0d52784761a3d71c07a0b53 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Theodore Song Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 15:47:33 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Retire failed maker capital path --- README.md | 34 ++++++++++++------ index.html | 70 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------ scripts/evaluate-maker.mjs | 56 +++++++++++++++++++++++------- 3 files changed, 115 insertions(+), 45 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 1115b52..3c5eed4 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -151,19 +151,24 @@ passed the chronological path screen at 25% of the present reward estimate, but both did so without an adverse historical touch; this prioritizes shadow research and does not authorize capital. -Maker research version 2 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow +Maker research version 3 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow quote pairs selected by the shared reward-book audit. Token histories are fetched in batches, so the learner no longer silently ignores quotes after the first ten -markets. A later live -cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history or a current -book cross. A one-hour executable exit grades one-sided touches after a -conservative half-cent cost, while paired touches and unfilled attempts are also -retained in one shared cross-agent ledger and clustered by Polymarket event. Capital exposure can only -resume after at least 20 current-strategy event clusters in the matching -category, spread, and estimated reward-yield cohorts have positive 90% confidence -bounds and at least three distinct-event completed pairs, with any mature losing cohort acting as a veto. There is -no capital-backed exploration lane. Existing paper inventory from prior builds -is still reconciled honestly. The engine does not credit hypothetical rewards. +markets. A live cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history +or a current book cross. After the first one-sided touch, the shadow engine now +buys the complement only when the current executable ask locks a positive margin +after modeled cost; otherwise it grades an immediate executable exit. It no +longer waits with adverse one-sided shadow inventory. + +The August 21 expanded audit loaded both token histories for all 500 requested +markets, formed 7,335 observations, and tested 6,048 wait and immediate-hedge +rules. Zero passed training, validation, or untouched holdout. The separate +reward-assisted stress test also found zero passing candidates. Maker capital is +therefore disabled even if a small live cohort appears positive; those outcomes +remain research evidence and cannot override the failed independent backtest. +Existing paper inventory from prior maker versions is still reconciled honestly. +There is no capital-backed exploration lane, and the engine does not credit +hypothetical rewards. See Polymarket's official [fees](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees), [maker rebates](https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/maker-rebates), and [liquidity rewards](https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/liquidity-rewards) @@ -364,6 +369,13 @@ personal cohort or increase current risk. Forward directional evidence from Strategies 51-59 remains compatible because the signal and checkpoint policy did not change. +Build 84 retires maker capital after the expanded 500-market audit found zero +validated winners among 6,048 wait and immediate-hedge rules. New maker work is +zero-capital lock-or-exit research: after one resting bid touches, the engine +records a complementary hedge only when the current executable ask locks a net +profit; otherwise it grades an immediate exit. A positive in-app cohort cannot +reactivate capital without a separately approved chronological backtest. + Build 77 separates the directional learner's evidence lineage from the global strategy release. Code-history verification found the same trend/reversal generator and 24-hour/72-hour grading policy in Strategy 51 through Strategy diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 34f3c3f..f3730b8 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color