<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 96 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every 15 minutes while every user device is closed. Five aggressive agents can take tightly bounded, fixed-date 50–55% NO positions only in independently passing three-day or seven-day settlement windows. Entries use an executable ask plus slippage, one agent owns each event, positions hold to verified settlement, and each horizon can demote itself from losing forward evidence. Other unproven directional rules remain observation-only. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 97 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every 15 minutes while every user device is closed. Five aggressive agents can take tightly bounded, safe non-Sports 50–55% NO positions in independently passing three-through-six-day settlement windows. Entries use an executable ask plus slippage, one agent owns each event, positions hold to verified settlement, and every exact horizon can demote itself from losing forward evidence. Other unproven directional rules remain observation-only. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
drivers:[`validated ${window.days}-day settlement window`,"NO midpoint is 50–55%","executable NO ask plus 0.25c slippage","one owner per event","hold to verified settlement"],
rationale:`Bounded current-regime pilot: NO is priced at ${pct(marketPrice)} for a fixed-date contract resolving in ${days.toFixed(1)} days, inside the independently passing ${window.days}-day window. The modeled entry is ${pct(modeledEntry)} using the executable NO ask plus 0.25-cent slippage, ${(executionCost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint. In the most recent 2,916 resolved-market replay at one-cent cost, the exact 50–55% NO rule covered ${audit.events} ${window.days}-day event clusters with a ${(audit.eventMean*100).toFixed(2)}% event mean and ${(audit.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound; chronological train and holdout bounds were ${(audit.trainLower*100).toFixed(2)}% and ${(audit.holdoutLower*100).toFixed(2)}%. Historical liquidity at the decision point cannot be reconstructed, so this remains a 0.5% paper pilot with live liquidity gates, one owner per event, a 3% total cap, settlement-only exits, and automatic per-horizon forward demotion.`};
rationale:`Bounded current-regime pilot: NO is priced at ${pct(marketPrice)} for a safe non-Sports contract resolving in ${days.toFixed(1)} days, inside the independently passing ${window.days}-day window. The modeled entry is ${pct(modeledEntry)} using the executable NO ask plus 0.25-cent slippage, ${(executionCost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint. In the most recent 2,954 resolved-market replay at one-cent cost, the exact production-matched 50–55% NO rule covered ${audit.events} ${window.days}-day event clusters with a ${(audit.eventMean*100).toFixed(2)}% event mean and ${(audit.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound; chronological train and holdout bounds were ${(audit.trainLower*100).toFixed(2)}% and ${(audit.holdoutLower*100).toFixed(2)}%. Historical liquidity at the decision point cannot be reconstructed, so this remains a 0.5% paper pilot with live liquidity gates, one owner per event, a 3% total cap, settlement-only exits, and automatic per-horizon forward demotion.`};
}
function sportsFavoriteLeadHours(item){return hoursUntil(item&&item.game_start);}
function sportsFavoritePilotSuggestion(m){
@@ -4011,7 +4018,7 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
p.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${p.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Resolution-window NO pilot: shared state ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.state}, ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.events} settled events, ${(sharedResolutionWeekProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% position cap and ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}% total cap; only validated 3d/7d windows can trade, one agent owns each event, and positions hold to verified settlement.`.trim();
p.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${p.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Resolution-window NO pilot: shared state ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.state}, ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.events} settled events, ${(sharedResolutionWeekProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% position cap and ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}% total cap; only validated 3d–6d windows can trade, one agent owns each event, and positions hold to verified settlement.`.trim();
@@ -4247,15 +4254,15 @@ function decisionSummary(p){
const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker research: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital lock-or-exit observations active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} outcomes completed this cycle.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} locked pairs, ${makerStats.adverse} immediate adverse exits, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net.`:""} Capital is disabled because neither the 6,048-rule chronological maker audit nor the reward stress test produced a validated holdout winner. Hypothetical rewards are excluded.`:"";
const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports forward learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent closed events, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until ${SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} new independent events establish a positive lower bound.`:"";
const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; ${SHOCK_FADE_QUALIFICATION_EVENTS} positive events can qualify 1% capital and ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} stronger events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%.`:"";
const resolutionWeek=d.resolutionWeekNoPilot?` Resolution-window NO pilot: ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.state}, ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.events} shared settled events, ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound. Position cap ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; only validated 3d/7d windows can trade, each horizon adapts separately, one agent owns each event, and every position holds to verified settlement.`:"";
const resolutionWeek=d.resolutionWeekNoPilot?` Resolution-window NO pilot: ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.state}, ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.events} shared settled events, ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound. Position cap ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; only validated 3d–6d windows can trade, each horizon adapts separately, one agent owns each event, and every position holds to verified settlement.`:"";
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${sportsPilot}${shockPilot}${resolutionWeek}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Zero-capital 12h sports observations until 30 forward events promote 1.25% positions":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`One bounded 3d/7d resolution-window NO entry per cycle; ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}% total cap plus zero-capital shock research`:`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade shadow observations only when Polymarket closes the market; after promotion, capital positions retain the 18% stop and profit locks":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Hold 3d/7d resolution-window positions to verified settlement; exit shock positions at the executable bid after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours and discard missed grading windows`
const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Zero-capital 12h sports observations until 30 forward events promote 1.25% positions":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`One bounded 3d–6d resolution-window NO entry per cycle; ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}% total cap plus zero-capital shock research`:`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade shadow observations only when Polymarket closes the market; after promotion, capital positions retain the 18% stop and profit locks":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Hold 3d–6d resolution-window positions to verified settlement; exit shock positions at the executable bid after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours and discard missed grading windows`
:`Exit after a confirmed reversal, a 12h unconfirmed fade after 48h, a trailing-profit retrace, or ${EXIT_STALE_DAYS}d stale while losing; Politics trends get 72h before ordinary signal exits`;
const thesis=agentPlainBlurb(cfg,st);
const quoteSummary=(p.maker_quotes||[]).slice(0,3).map(quote=>`${quote.shadow_only?"Shadow":"Capital"} · ${quote.question.slice(0,34)}${quote.question.length>34?"...":""}: YES ${pct(quote.yes_quote)} + NO ${pct(quote.no_quote)}${quote.yes_filled_at||quote.no_filled_at?" (one leg touched)":""}`).join("; ");
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the adaptive holdouts at both 24h and 72h. Contract-safe Shock Strategy 4 remains zero-capital after its untouched expansion failed. A separate current-regime 50%-55% NO rule passed exact three-day and seven-day chronological audits at one-cent modeled cost; one-day, fourteen-day, thirty-day, and ninety-day windows failed or lacked evidence and remain disabled. Contemporaneous historical liquidity cannot be reconstructed, so only live, fixed-date, non-sports contracts in the passing windows that clear spread and liquidity gates receive 0.5% paper positions, one owner per event, a 3% cap, settlement-only exits, and automatic per-horizon demotion from forward losses. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the adaptive holdouts at both 24h and 72h. Contract-safe Shock Strategy 4 remains zero-capital after its untouched expansion failed. An exact production-matched 50%-55% NO rule passed safe non-Sports chronological audits at three, four, five, and six days with one-cent modeled cost; two days failed holdout and seven through ten days failed the stricter all-segment confidence test or were not retained. Contemporaneous historical liquidity cannot be reconstructed, so only live safe non-Sports contracts in the passing windows that clear spread and liquidity gates receive 0.5% paper positions, one owner per event, a 3% cap, settlement-only exits, and automatic per-horizon demotion from forward losses. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
});
function runEngineSelfTest(){
const market=(overrides={})=>Object.assign({
@@ -5957,15 +5964,19 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
const pathBarrierContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"barrier-test",question:"Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?",category:"Crypto"}),news);
const fixedDateLevelContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"fixed-level-test",question:"Will Bitcoin be above $66,000 on 2026-08-23?",category:"Crypto"}),news);
const ordinaryDatedContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"dated-test",question:"Will the policy pass on 2026-08-22?"}),news);
const resolutionWeekMarket=market({id:"resolution-week",question:"Will Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27?",event:"Bitcoin price on August 27",event_id:"btc-aug-27",
const pathDependentResolutionWeek=resolutionWeekNoSuggestion(market({id:"resolution-path",question:"Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 by August 27?",event_id:"resolution-path-event",
const sportsResolutionWeek=resolutionWeekNoSuggestion(market({id:"resolution-sports",question:"Will Harbor FC win?",event_id:"resolution-sports-event",
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Theodore Song