mirror of
https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst.git
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Poll audited bundle opportunities every five minutes
This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ name: Autonomous paper cycle
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on:
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schedule:
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- cron: "7,22,37,52 * * * *"
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- cron: "2,7,12,17,22,27,32,37,42,47,52,57 * * * *"
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workflow_dispatch:
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push:
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branches: [main]
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@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ jobs:
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- run: node scripts/run-autonomous-cycle.mjs
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env:
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ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app
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EXPECTED_BUILD: "97"
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EXPECTED_BUILD: "98"
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RUNTIME_BRANCH: runtime-state
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RUNTIME_STATE_PATH: runtime/state.json
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GITHUB_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }}
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
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allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
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expires after 24 hours.
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Build 97 runs the headless GitHub Actions runtime every 15 minutes, continues
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Build 98 runs the headless GitHub Actions runtime every five minutes, continues
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from the previous agent snapshot,
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and runs the next due paper cycle even when no browser is open. It writes a
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sanitized snapshot to the `runtime-state` branch and `/api/state` uses that as a
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@@ -41,6 +41,17 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
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several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
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three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
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Each Build 98 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
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pairs. Only a positive worst-case payout margin after 0.5 cents of modeled cost
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per leg can enter the Value Discipline portfolio. The Suggestions view stores
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the event count, number of audited structures, actionable count, and closest
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observed margin so an empty bundle lane is visible evidence rather than an
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ambiguous failure. A full 1,000-event audit on August 21, 2026 found 136
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eligible negative-risk events and 1,431 dominance pairs, but no positive bundle
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after costs; the closest complete bundle was 0.5 cents underwater and the
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closest dominance pair was 0.3 cents underwater.
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Build 97 expands the separate current-regime resolution-window NO pilot for
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the five aggressive agents. It accepts only non-sports, fixed-date contracts
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inside validated 2.5-3.5, 3.5-4.5, 4.5-5.5, or 5.5-6.5 day windows, with the NO midpoint from 50%-55%, at least $15,000 total
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+45
-26
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
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<div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
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<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
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</div>
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<div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 97 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every 15 minutes while every user device is closed. Five aggressive agents can take tightly bounded, safe non-Sports 50–55% NO positions in independently passing three-through-six-day settlement windows. Entries use an executable ask plus slippage, one agent owns each event, positions hold to verified settlement, and every exact horizon can demote itself from losing forward evidence. Other unproven directional rules remain observation-only. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
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<div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 98 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every five minutes while every user device is closed. Each cycle scans the 1,000 most-active events for complete negative-risk and same-event dominance bundles, and the shared Suggestions view reports the closest executable margin even when no bundle is profitable after modeled costs. Five aggressive agents can also take tightly bounded, safe non-Sports 50–55% NO positions in independently passing three-through-six-day settlement windows. Other unproven directional rules remain observation-only. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
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<!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
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<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
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@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
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</section>
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<footer>
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Build 97 · Adaptive strategy 59 · Resolution-window pilot 2 · Validated 3d–6d entries · Executable 50–55% NO pricing · Settlement-only exits · Per-horizon forward demotion · Autonomous runtime 1 · Offline runtime 2 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
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Build 98 · Adaptive strategy 59 · Five-minute autonomous scans · 1,000-event bundle audit · Resolution-window pilot 2 · Validated 3d–6d entries · Executable 50–55% NO pricing · Settlement-only exits · Per-horizon forward demotion · Autonomous runtime 1 · Offline runtime 2 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
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<a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
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</footer>
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</div>
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@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
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const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
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const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
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const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
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const BUILD_VERSION = 97;
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const BUILD_VERSION = 98;
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const AGENT_LEARNING_VERSION = 3;
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const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 59;
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const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 3;
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@@ -1107,7 +1107,7 @@ function parseDominanceDeadline(question){
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return {kind:"deadline",direction:"deadline",value:year?year*10000+month*100+day:month*100+day,
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yearMode:year?"explicit-year":"implicit-year",stem};
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}
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function dominanceBundleSuggestions(event){
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function dominanceBundleSuggestions(event,{includeUnprofitable=false}={}){
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if(!event||event.closed||event.active===false)return [];
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const rawLegs=Array.isArray(event.markets)?event.markets:[],eventTags=Array.isArray(event.tags)?event.tags:[];
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const quotes=rawLegs.map(raw=>{
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@@ -1140,7 +1140,8 @@ function dominanceBundleSuggestions(event){
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.map(leg=>Object.assign({},leg,{entry_price:+leg.entry_price.toFixed(4),current_price:+Number(leg.current_price).toFixed(4)}));
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if(legs.some(leg=>!leg.market_id||!Number.isFinite(leg.entry_price)||!Number.isFinite(leg.current_price)||leg.entry_price<=0||leg.entry_price>=1))continue;
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const cost=legs.reduce((sum,leg)=>sum+leg.entry_price,0),payout=1,profit=payout-cost,netReturn=profit/cost;
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if(profit<NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_PROFIT||netReturn<NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN)continue;
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const actionable=profit>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_PROFIT&&netReturn>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN;
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if(!actionable&&!includeUnprofitable)continue;
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const bundleLogic=deadline?"deadline-dominance":"threshold-dominance",bundleId=`dominance:${event.id}:${legs[0].market_id}:${legs[1].market_id}`;
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const relation=deadline?`${lower.question} is the earlier deadline and ${higher.question} is the later deadline`
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:`${superset.question} logically contains ${subset.question}`;
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@@ -1154,8 +1155,8 @@ function dominanceBundleSuggestions(event){
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evidence_score:1,evidence_source_count:0,quality:"bundle-arb",conviction:+clamp(80+netReturn*1200,80,96).toFixed(1),
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volume:quoteA.volume+quoteB.volume,volume_24hr:quoteA.volume_24hr+quoteB.volume_24hr,liquidity:Math.min(quoteA.liquidity,quoteB.liquidity),
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spread:Math.max(quoteA.spread,quoteB.spread),price_change_1h:0,price_change_1d:0,price_change_1w:0,momentum_strength:0,
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signal_strength:1,signal_confidence:1,signal_type:"bundle-arb",trade_ready:true,entry_candidate:true,audited_observation_only:false,
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adaptive_promotion:false,watch_only:false,jump_risk:false,requires_live:true,days_to_resolution:daysUntil(event.endDate),
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signal_strength:1,signal_confidence:1,signal_type:"bundle-arb",trade_ready:actionable,entry_candidate:actionable,audited_observation_only:!actionable,
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adaptive_promotion:false,watch_only:!actionable,jump_risk:false,requires_live:true,opportunity_actionable:actionable,days_to_resolution:daysUntil(event.endDate),
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bundle_cost_per_unit:+cost.toFixed(4),bundle_payout_per_unit:payout,bundle_net_profit_per_unit:+profit.toFixed(4),bundle_legs:legs,
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drivers:[deadline?"same-event nested deadlines":"same-event nested thresholds","live executable ask pair","guaranteed minimum one-contract payout","positive margin after estimated costs"],
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rationale:`${deadline?"Deadline":"Threshold"} dominance: ${relation}. ${strategy} costs ${cost.toFixed(3)} per pair against a guaranteed minimum payout of $1.00 when both use the same event terms. The modeled margin is ${profit.toFixed(3)} (${(netReturn*100).toFixed(2)}%) after 0.5c estimated cost per leg. Both live legs must open together and remain paired through settlement.`});
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@@ -1163,7 +1164,7 @@ function dominanceBundleSuggestions(event){
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}
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return candidates.sort((a,b)=>b.net_edge-a.net_edge);
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}
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function negativeRiskBundleSuggestion(event){
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function negativeRiskBundleSuggestion(event,{includeUnprofitable=false}={}){
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if(!event||!event.negRisk||event.enableNegRisk===false)return null;
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const rawLegs=Array.isArray(event.markets)?event.markets:[];
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if(rawLegs.length<2||rawLegs.some(m=>m.closed||m.active===false||m.acceptingOrders===false))return null;
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@@ -1190,10 +1191,11 @@ function negativeRiskBundleSuggestion(event){
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return {side,legs,cost,payout,profit,netReturn};
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};
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const candidate=[makeCandidate("YES"),makeCandidate("NO")].filter(Boolean)
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.filter(x=>x.profit>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_PROFIT&&x.netReturn>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN)
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.filter(x=>includeUnprofitable||(x.profit>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_PROFIT&&x.netReturn>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN))
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.sort((a,b)=>b.netReturn-a.netReturn)[0];
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if(!candidate)return null;
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const {side,legs,cost,payout,profit,netReturn}=candidate,minLiquidity=Math.min(...legs.map(leg=>leg.liquidity));
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const actionable=profit>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_PROFIT&&netReturn>=NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN;
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return {market_id:`bundle:${event.id}:${side.toLowerCase()}`,bundle_id:`bundle:${event.id}:${side.toLowerCase()}`,bundle_side:side,
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question:`Complete ${side} bundle: ${event.title||"multi-outcome event"}`,event:event.title||"",
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url:event.slug?`https://polymarket.com/event/${event.slug}`:"",category,tags:eventTags.map(t=>t.label).filter(Boolean).slice(0,4),
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@@ -1203,8 +1205,8 @@ function negativeRiskBundleSuggestion(event){
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evidence_score:1,evidence_source_count:0,quality:"bundle-arb",conviction:+clamp(78+netReturn*1200,78,96).toFixed(1),
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volume:rawLegs.reduce((sum,m)=>sum+toNum(m.volumeNum||m.volume),0),volume_24hr:rawLegs.reduce((sum,m)=>sum+toNum(m.volume24hr),0),liquidity:minLiquidity,
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spread:Math.max(...rawLegs.map(m=>toNum(m.spread))),price_change_1h:0,price_change_1d:0,price_change_1w:0,momentum_strength:0,
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signal_strength:1,signal_confidence:1,signal_type:"bundle-arb",trade_ready:true,entry_candidate:true,audited_observation_only:false,
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adaptive_promotion:false,watch_only:false,jump_risk:false,requires_live:true,days_to_resolution:daysUntil(event.endDate),
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signal_strength:1,signal_confidence:1,signal_type:"bundle-arb",trade_ready:actionable,entry_candidate:actionable,audited_observation_only:!actionable,
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adaptive_promotion:false,watch_only:!actionable,jump_risk:false,requires_live:true,opportunity_actionable:actionable,days_to_resolution:daysUntil(event.endDate),
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bundle_cost_per_unit:+cost.toFixed(4),bundle_payout_per_unit:payout,bundle_net_profit_per_unit:+profit.toFixed(4),bundle_legs:legs,
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drivers:["complete negative-risk event","executable bid/ask gap","positive margin after estimated costs"],
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rationale:`Complete bundle: buy every ${side} leg together for ${cost.toFixed(3)} per bundle unit against a ${payout.toFixed(2)} worst-case payout. The modeled margin is ${profit.toFixed(3)} (${(netReturn*100).toFixed(2)}%) after ${(SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST*100).toFixed(1)}c estimated cost per leg. This requires live prices and must stay intact until settlement.`};
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@@ -1218,12 +1220,19 @@ async function fetchNegativeRiskBundles(limit=NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT){
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const page=await response.json();if(!Array.isArray(page)||!page.length)break;
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events.push(...page);if(page.length<size)break;
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}
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const candidates=events.flatMap(event=>{
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const complete=negativeRiskBundleSuggestion(event);
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return [...(complete?[complete]:[]),...dominanceBundleSuggestions(event)];
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const audited=events.flatMap(event=>{
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const complete=negativeRiskBundleSuggestion(event,{includeUnprofitable:true});
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return [...(complete?[complete]:[]),...dominanceBundleSuggestions(event,{includeUnprofitable:true})];
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}).sort((a,b)=>b.net_edge-a.net_edge);
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const candidates=audited.filter(candidate=>candidate.opportunity_actionable);
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const seen=new Set();
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return candidates.filter(candidate=>{const id=String(candidate.bundle_id||candidate.market_id);if(!id||seen.has(id))return false;seen.add(id);return true;}).slice(0,20);
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const unique=candidates.filter(candidate=>{const id=String(candidate.bundle_id||candidate.market_id);if(!id||seen.has(id))return false;seen.add(id);return true;});
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const closest=audited[0]||null;
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return {candidates:unique.slice(0,20),audit:{status:"ok",scanned_at:nowIso(),event_scan_limit:limit,events_scanned:events.length,
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evaluated_structures:audited.length,actionable_bundles:unique.length,
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closest_margin_cents:closest?+(Number(closest.bundle_net_profit_per_unit)*100).toFixed(2):null,
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closest_return_pct:closest?+(Number(closest.net_edge)*100).toFixed(3):null,
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closest_title:closest?closest.question:null,closest_url:closest?closest.url:null}};
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}
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async function fetchRewardMakerCandidates(limit=60){
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const params=new URLSearchParams({limit:String(limit),min_hours:"48"});
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@@ -1269,7 +1278,7 @@ const SUGGESTION_PER_CATEGORY=180;
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const VISIBLE_SUGGESTIONS=900;
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const REAL_WORLD_SIGNAL_LIMIT=120;
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const SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST=0.005;
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const NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT=500;
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const NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT=1000;
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const NEG_RISK_MIN_LIQUIDITY=1000;
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const NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_PROFIT=0.003;
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const NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN=0.0015;
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@@ -1780,7 +1789,7 @@ function compactSyncItems(items,limits=SYNC_LIMITS){
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}
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function saveState(st){localStorage.setItem(AGENTS_KEY,JSON.stringify(compactAgentStateForSync(st)));}
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function loadSuggestions(){try{const s=localStorage.getItem(SUG_KEY);return s?JSON.parse(s):{date:null,suggestions:[]};}catch(e){return {date:null,suggestions:[]};}}
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function saveSuggestions(sugs,marketCount=0,analyzedCount=null){const p={date:todayStr(),generated_at:nowIso(),engine_version:BUILD_VERSION,strategy_version:SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION,market_count:marketCount,analyzed_count:analyzedCount==null?marketCount:analyzedCount,analysis_limit:MARKET_ANALYSIS_LIMIT,suggestion_cap:SUGGESTION_TOTAL,suggestions:sugs};const compact=compactSuggestionsForSync(p);localStorage.setItem(SUG_KEY,JSON.stringify(compact));return compact;}
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function saveSuggestions(sugs,marketCount=0,analyzedCount=null,opportunityAudit=null){const p={date:todayStr(),generated_at:nowIso(),engine_version:BUILD_VERSION,strategy_version:SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION,market_count:marketCount,analyzed_count:analyzedCount==null?marketCount:analyzedCount,analysis_limit:MARKET_ANALYSIS_LIMIT,suggestion_cap:SUGGESTION_TOTAL,opportunity_audit:opportunityAudit,suggestions:sugs};const compact=compactSuggestionsForSync(p);localStorage.setItem(SUG_KEY,JSON.stringify(compact));return compact;}
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function compactCachedMarket(m){
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return {id:m.id,question:m.question,event:m.event,event_id:m.event_id,url:m.url,category:m.category,tags:m.tags,
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clob_token_ids:m.clob_token_ids,yes_price:m.yes_price,no_price:m.no_price,volume:m.volume,
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@@ -3891,7 +3900,7 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
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return {suggestions:(loadSuggestions().suggestions||[]).length,skipped:true,hour};
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}
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SNAP_TS=nowIso();
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let markets=[],analysisMarkets=[],sugs=[],bundleSugs=[],shockSugs=[],makerAuditCandidates=[],cache=loadMarketCache(),runMode="live",cacheAgeMs=0;
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let markets=[],analysisMarkets=[],sugs=[],bundleSugs=[],shockSugs=[],makerAuditCandidates=[],bundleAudit=null,cache=loadMarketCache(),runMode="live",cacheAgeMs=0;
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try{
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setStatus("loading the 500 most active eligible markets…",true);
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markets=await fetchMarkets(20,100,count=>setStatus(`loaded ${Math.min(count,ACTIVE_MARKET_FETCH_LIMIT).toLocaleString()} of 500 eligible active markets…`,true),ACTIVE_MARKET_FETCH_LIMIT);
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@@ -3899,7 +3908,8 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
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if(!analysisMarkets.length)throw new Error("No active markets returned");
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setStatus(`analyzing ${analysisMarkets.length.toLocaleString()} most-active markets…`,true);
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setStatus("checking complete live-priced event bundles…",true);
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try{bundleSugs=await fetchNegativeRiskBundles();}catch(e){bundleSugs=[];}
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try{const bundleScan=await fetchNegativeRiskBundles();bundleSugs=bundleScan.candidates;bundleAudit=bundleScan.audit;}
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catch(e){bundleSugs=[];bundleAudit={status:"unavailable",scanned_at:nowIso(),event_scan_limit:NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT,events_scanned:0,evaluated_structures:0,actionable_bundles:0,error:String(e&&e.message||e)};}
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setStatus("measuring reward-book competition…",true);
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try{makerAuditCandidates=await fetchRewardMakerCandidates();}catch(e){makerAuditCandidates=[];}
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setStatus("checking real-world context…",true);
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@@ -3911,7 +3921,7 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
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.sort((a,b)=>(Number(b.quality==="bundle-arb")-Number(a.quality==="bundle-arb"))
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||(Number(b.quality==="resolution-week-no-pilot")-Number(a.quality==="resolution-week-no-pilot"))
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||(Number(b.quality==="shock-fade-shadow")-Number(a.quality==="shock-fade-shadow"))||(b.conviction-a.conviction)).slice(0,SUGGESTION_TOTAL);
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saveSuggestions(sugs,markets.length,analysisMarkets.length);
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saveSuggestions(sugs,markets.length,analysisMarkets.length,bundleAudit);
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}catch(networkError){
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cache=cache||loadMarketCache();
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const stored=loadSuggestions();
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@@ -4460,8 +4470,12 @@ function renderSuggestions(){
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const evAvg=all.length?Math.round(all.reduce((s,x)=>s+Number(x.evidence_score||0),0)/all.length*100):0;
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const scanned=Number(data.market_count||0).toLocaleString();
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const analyzed=Number(data.analyzed_count||data.market_count||0).toLocaleString();
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const audit=data.opportunity_audit||null;
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const auditText=audit&&audit.status==="ok"
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?` Bundle scanner checked ${Number(audit.events_scanned||0).toLocaleString()} events and ${Number(audit.evaluated_structures||0).toLocaleString()} complete/dominance structures; ${Number(audit.actionable_bundles||0)} cleared costs.${audit.closest_margin_cents!=null?` Closest margin: ${Number(audit.closest_margin_cents)>=0?"+":""}${Number(audit.closest_margin_cents).toFixed(2)}c per bundle.`:""}`
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:(audit?" Bundle scanner was unavailable during this cycle; the site did not treat cached bundle prices as executable.":"");
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$("focusNote").textContent=focus==="All"
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? `Loaded the ${scanned} most active markets, analyzed ${analyzed}, and kept ${all.length} ideas (${buyCount} TRADE READY, ${watchCount} WATCH). Showing ${filtered.length}; directional signals remain WATCH until their own event-clustered cohorts earn positive promotion. Complete negative-risk bundles are trade ready only when live executable prices leave a positive worst-case margin after estimated costs. Cash is retained when neither condition is met. Avg evidence ${evAvg}.`
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? `Loaded the ${scanned} most active markets, analyzed ${analyzed}, and kept ${all.length} ideas (${buyCount} TRADE READY, ${watchCount} WATCH). Showing ${filtered.length}; directional signals remain WATCH until their own event-clustered cohorts earn positive promotion. Complete negative-risk bundles are trade ready only when live executable prices leave a positive worst-case margin after estimated costs. Cash is retained when neither condition is met. Avg evidence ${evAvg}.${auditText}`
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: `Loaded the ${scanned} most active markets and analyzed ${analyzed}. Showing ${filtered.length} of ${pool.length} ${focus} ideas; directional entries require adaptive promotion and complete bundles require live positive executable margin.`;
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if(!filtered.length){root.innerHTML=`<div class="empty" style="grid-column:1/-1">No ${esc(focus)} suggestions in this live batch.</div>`;return;}
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root.innerHTML=filtered.map(s=>{
|
||||
@@ -5911,6 +5925,7 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
|
||||
directionalSignalsRequirePromotion:true,directionalSignalPolicyVersion:DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_POLICY_VERSION,
|
||||
directionalSignalCompatibleStrategies:[DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_COMPATIBLE_STRATEGY_MIN,DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_COMPATIBLE_STRATEGY_MAX],
|
||||
focusAndReconnectCatchup:true,liveOnlyCompleteBundles:true,negativeRiskBundleSides:["YES","NO"],negativeRiskEventScanLimit:NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT,
|
||||
autonomousScanMinutes:5,bundleOpportunityTelemetry:true,
|
||||
dominanceBundleLogic:"same-event nested threshold or calendar-deadline YES/NO pairs with identical normalized terms",
|
||||
negativeRiskMinimumNetReturnPct:NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN*100,
|
||||
pairedMakerQuotes:"research-only-immediate-lock-or-exit",makerStrategyVersion:MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION,
|
||||
@@ -6486,10 +6501,12 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
|
||||
Object.assign({},dominanceEvent.markets[0],{id:"mismatch-a",question:"Will Acme FDV be above $2B one day after launch?"}),
|
||||
Object.assign({},dominanceEvent.markets[1],{id:"mismatch-b",question:"Will Acme FDV be above $3B seven days after launch?"}),
|
||||
]}).length===0;
|
||||
const unprofitableDominanceRejected=dominanceBundleSuggestions({id:"dominance-expensive",title:"Expensive pair",markets:[
|
||||
const expensiveDominanceEvent={id:"dominance-expensive",title:"Expensive pair",markets:[
|
||||
Object.assign({},dominanceEvent.markets[0],{id:"expensive-a",bestAsk:0.50}),
|
||||
Object.assign({},dominanceEvent.markets[1],{id:"expensive-b",bestBid:0.50}),
|
||||
]}).length===0;
|
||||
Object.assign({},dominanceEvent.markets[1],{id:"expensive-b",bestBid:0.50,bestAsk:0.55}),
|
||||
]};
|
||||
const unprofitableDominanceRejected=dominanceBundleSuggestions(expensiveDominanceEvent).length===0;
|
||||
const unprofitableDominanceAudited=dominanceBundleSuggestions(expensiveDominanceEvent,{includeUnprofitable:true})[0];
|
||||
const nonBinaryDominanceRejected=dominanceBundleSuggestions({id:"dominance-labels",title:"Non-binary pair",markets:dominanceEvent.markets.map((row,index)=>Object.assign({},row,{id:`nonbinary-${index}`,outcomes:'["Over","Under"]'}))}).length===0;
|
||||
const deadlineEvent={id:"deadline-test",title:"Acme launch deadline",slug:"acme-launch-deadline",tags:[{slug:"business",label:"Business"}],markets:[
|
||||
{id:"deadline-early",question:"Will Acme launch by September 30, 2026?",outcomes:'["Yes","No"]',outcomePrices:'["0.595","0.405"]',clobTokenIds:'["deadline-early-yes","deadline-early-no"]',bestBid:0.60,bestAsk:0.61,liquidityNum:30000,volumeNum:100000,volume24hr:10000,spread:0.01,acceptingOrders:true},
|
||||
@@ -6948,6 +6965,8 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
|
||||
&&belowDominanceSuggestion.bundle_legs[0].market_id==="below-high"&&belowDominanceSuggestion.bundle_legs[1].market_id==="below-low"),
|
||||
rejectsMismatchedDominanceTerms:mismatchedDominanceRejected,
|
||||
rejectsUnprofitableDominancePair:unprofitableDominanceRejected,
|
||||
retainsUnprofitablePairForTelemetry:Boolean(unprofitableDominanceAudited&&!unprofitableDominanceAudited.trade_ready
|
||||
&&unprofitableDominanceAudited.watch_only&&unprofitableDominanceAudited.bundle_net_profit_per_unit<0),
|
||||
rejectsNonBinaryDominanceLabels:nonBinaryDominanceRejected,
|
||||
identifiesDeadlineDominance:Boolean(deadlineSuggestion&&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_logic==="deadline-dominance"
|
||||
&&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_cost_per_unit===0.96&&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_net_profit_per_unit===0.04
|
||||
@@ -7014,7 +7033,7 @@ initProviderConfig();
|
||||
refreshTradeEmailStatus();
|
||||
$("runBtn").addEventListener("click",async()=>{
|
||||
const btn=$("runBtn");btn.disabled=true;btn.textContent="Running…";
|
||||
try{const r=await runDailyCycle();const b=board(),mode=r.offline?(r.executeTrades?"Offline":"Mark-only"):"Live";toast(r.readOnly?"The autonomous shared runner owns this portfolio; refreshed results arrive every 15 minutes.":r.busy?`Cycle already running · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:r.skipped?`Already ran this minute · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:`${mode} cycle done${r.pendingSync?" · sync queued":""} · ${r.suggestions} ideas · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`);renderAll();}
|
||||
try{const r=await runDailyCycle();const b=board(),mode=r.offline?(r.executeTrades?"Offline":"Mark-only"):"Live";toast(r.readOnly?"The autonomous shared runner owns this portfolio; refreshed results arrive every five minutes.":r.busy?`Cycle already running · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:r.skipped?`Already ran this minute · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:`${mode} cycle done${r.pendingSync?" · sync queued":""} · ${r.suggestions} ideas · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`);renderAll();}
|
||||
catch(e){toast("Run failed: "+e.message);setStatus("error",false);}
|
||||
btn.disabled=autonomousRuntimeControlsCycle();btn.textContent=btn.disabled?"Auto cycle":"Run cycle";
|
||||
});
|
||||
@@ -7177,7 +7196,7 @@ if("serviceWorker" in navigator){navigator.serviceWorker.register("/sw.js").catc
|
||||
renderAll();
|
||||
const btn=$("runBtn");
|
||||
if(autonomousRuntimeControlsCycle()){
|
||||
btn.disabled=true;btn.textContent="Auto cycle";setStatus("autonomous shared state · refreshes every 15 min",false);return;
|
||||
btn.disabled=true;btn.textContent="Auto cycle";setStatus("autonomous shared state · refreshes every 5 min",false);return;
|
||||
}else if(!st.seeded){
|
||||
btn.disabled=true;btn.textContent="Starting…";
|
||||
try{
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -128,7 +128,7 @@ async function main() {
|
||||
const branch = process.env.RUNTIME_BRANCH || "runtime-state";
|
||||
const pathname = process.env.RUNTIME_STATE_PATH || "runtime/state.json";
|
||||
const arenaUrl = (process.env.ARENA_URL || "https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app").replace(/\/$/, "");
|
||||
const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "97"));
|
||||
const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "98"));
|
||||
await ensureRuntimeBranch(repository, branch);
|
||||
const prior = await readRuntimeFile(repository, branch, pathname);
|
||||
if (prior.snapshot) validateRuntimeSnapshot(prior.snapshot, 0, { allowIncomplete: true });
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ const runner = fs.readFileSync(new URL("./run-autonomous-cycle.mjs", import.meta
|
||||
const resolutionAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/resolution-week-no-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
|
||||
const build = Number(index.match(/const BUILD_VERSION = (\d+);/)?.[1]);
|
||||
|
||||
assert.equal(build, 97);
|
||||
assert.equal(build, 98);
|
||||
assert.deepEqual([...ALLOWED_RUNTIME_KEYS].sort(), ["pma_agents_v2", "pma_suggestions_v5"]);
|
||||
assert.match(index, /function collectPublicRuntimeItems\(\)/);
|
||||
assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_KEYS=Object\.freeze\(\[AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY\]\)/);
|
||||
@@ -24,9 +24,11 @@ assert.match(api, /sanitizeGithubRuntimeState/);
|
||||
assert.match(api, /api\.github\.com\/repos\/theodore-song\/polymarket-analyst\/contents\/runtime\/state\.json/);
|
||||
assert.match(api, /Buffer\.from\(file\.content/);
|
||||
assert.match(api, /searchParams\.set\("runtime", `\$\{Date\.now\(\)\}/);
|
||||
assert.match(workflow, /cron: "7,22,37,52 \* \* \* \*"/);
|
||||
assert.match(workflow, /cron: "2,7,12,17,22,27,32,37,42,47,52,57 \* \* \* \*"/);
|
||||
assert.match(workflow, /contents: write/);
|
||||
assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "97"/);
|
||||
assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "98"/);
|
||||
assert.match(index, /const NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT=1000;/);
|
||||
assert.match(index, /bundleOpportunityTelemetry:true/);
|
||||
assert.match(runner, /MAX_STATE_BYTES = 900_000/);
|
||||
assert.equal(resolutionAudit.strategy, "resolution-window-no-50-55-safe-non-sports-v2");
|
||||
assert.deepEqual(resolutionAudit.selection.horizon_days_enabled, [3, 4, 5, 6]);
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user