Poll audited bundle opportunities every five minutes

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-21 19:29:50 -04:00
parent a01571d5ee
commit 1da2ab3e29
6 changed files with 66 additions and 34 deletions
+12 -1
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
Build 97 runs the headless GitHub Actions runtime every 15 minutes, continues
Build 98 runs the headless GitHub Actions runtime every five minutes, continues
from the previous agent snapshot,
and runs the next due paper cycle even when no browser is open. It writes a
sanitized snapshot to the `runtime-state` branch and `/api/state` uses that as a
@@ -41,6 +41,17 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
Each Build 98 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
pairs. Only a positive worst-case payout margin after 0.5 cents of modeled cost
per leg can enter the Value Discipline portfolio. The Suggestions view stores
the event count, number of audited structures, actionable count, and closest
observed margin so an empty bundle lane is visible evidence rather than an
ambiguous failure. A full 1,000-event audit on August 21, 2026 found 136
eligible negative-risk events and 1,431 dominance pairs, but no positive bundle
after costs; the closest complete bundle was 0.5 cents underwater and the
closest dominance pair was 0.3 cents underwater.
Build 97 expands the separate current-regime resolution-window NO pilot for
the five aggressive agents. It accepts only non-sports, fixed-date contracts
inside validated 2.5-3.5, 3.5-4.5, 4.5-5.5, or 5.5-6.5 day windows, with the NO midpoint from 50%-55%, at least $15,000 total