Daniel Sapkota
64 lines
3.2 KiB
Markdown
64 lines
3.2 KiB
Markdown
# 07 — Future: External Data Feeds (deferred, scoped now)
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v2 trades political markets on **microstructure alone** (04 §1). That is a
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deliberate constraint, not a belief that external data has no value — the
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architecture reserves a seat for it so adding feeds later is additive, not a
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refactor. This doc scopes the seat and the candidate feeds; **none of this is
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built in v2.**
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## Architectural seat (built in v2, empty)
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The strategy signature already is `(BookState, Inventory, Params, Clock) ->
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TargetQuotes`. The extension is one optional input:
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```
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SignalBus: name -> {value, confidence, as_of, ttl}
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```
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- Strategy reads signals as **FV adjusters and regime inputs** with explicit
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staleness: a signal past its TTL contributes nothing (fail-safe to pure
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microstructure — the bot must never be worse than v2 because a feed died).
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- Feed adapters are separate async tasks (or even separate processes writing
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to the bus via SQLite/socket) — never in the quote path; the hot loop only
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reads a dict.
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- Every signal is journaled like WS data, so the replay backtester (04 §9)
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can grade any feed's marginal value before it touches live quotes. **A feed
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earns its way in through replay evidence, or it doesn't ship.**
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## Candidate feeds for political markets (rough priority)
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1. **Event calendar (highest value / lowest effort)**: debates, primaries,
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election nights, court dates, scheduled rulings. Even a hand-maintained
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`calendar.toml` (date, market tags, severity) lets the regime machine
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pre-widen/pull *before* scheduled volatility instead of reacting to the
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first sweep. No API needed to start.
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2. **Cross-venue prices**: Kalshi (public API), and Polymarket US as it
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grows. Same-event price divergence is both an FV prior and a toxicity
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warning (fast flow often arbs venues; if Kalshi moved and we didn't, our
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quote is stale). Clean REST/WS, well-bounded work.
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3. **Poll aggregates / forecast models**: RCP/538-style averages, Silver
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Bulletin, model outputs. Slow-moving FV anchor for long-dated markets —
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mostly useful as a *sanity band* (flag when market FV drifts far from
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model FV) rather than a quoting signal.
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4. **News/headline triggers**: wire headlines, X/Twitter firehose, Google
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Trends spikes. Highest alpha, highest noise and engineering cost;
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realistically an "instant EVENT-regime trigger" (pull quotes on keyword
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burst), not a pricing input. Last in line.
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5. **Polymarket-internal extras** (not really "external", could land earlier):
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RTDS `activity` topic for platform-wide flow/toxicity features, comment
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velocity per market as an attention proxy (03 §5).
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## Explicitly out of scope until then
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- Any taker execution driven by signals (feeds inform *maker* quoting only —
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the maker-only policy survives the feed era).
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- LLM/news-summarization pipelines, sentiment models.
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- Trading the Polymarket US venue (separate API/regulatory surface — 03 §8).
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## Preconditions before starting this phase
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- v2 live and stable through at least one high-volatility political event.
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- Journal + replay infrastructure proven (it is the evaluation harness here).
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- KPI baseline established, so each feed's marginal contribution is measured
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against a known control.
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