mirror of
https://github.com/caty21/forex-dashboard.git
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feat: calendrier économique TE+Investing, OIS SNB, yields 10Y, taux directeurs corrects
Calendrier économique - Nouvelles sources : TE HTML scraping (483 events/2 sem.) + Investing.com en co-primaires - Dédupe déterministe par clé currency+category+date (±1j pour policy_rate) - Filtre catégorie "other", filtre discours CB (fix doublon TE vs Investing) - CHF/Switzerland via page séparée TE (hors G20) - Fenêtre 14 jours avec ?startDate=&endDate= passés à TE - ForexFactory+FRED en secours uniquement si les deux scrapers tombent à vide Probabilités OIS - rateprobability.com (7 CBs : FED/ECB/BOJ/BOE/BOC/RBA/RBNZ) - investinglive.com (Dellamotta) : scan URL-date 14 jours → couvre SNB/CHF manquant - SNB : 3% probabilité hausse au 19 juin 2026 (source : IL article 2026-05-29) - rate_expectations.json MAJ : RBNZ 79% hike (corrigé depuis 70% no-change stale) - Dédup ±1 jour pour policy_rate (fix doublon SNB TE-18/06 vs IL-19/06) Taux directeurs - USD : scrapeTeRate() = 3.75% (fin midpoint FRED 3.625%) - AUD prev : 4.10% (corrigé depuis 4.60%) - NZD/CHF/JPY/CAD : cohérents avec TE officiel Yields 10Y souverains - Nouvelle lib lib/tebonds.ts : scrape TE bonds, données du jour, cache 1h - Remplace FRED IRLTLT01XXM156N mensuel (JPY/CHF/AUD/NZD avaient 1 mois de retard) - 8 devises + spread vs USD calculé automatiquement - /api/yields et /api/drivers utilisent la même lib Drivers globaux - BTC : ticker/price Binance (plus précis que 24hr lastPrice) - HY Spread cache : 86400s → 3600s (données FRED du jour) - DriversBar : suppression affichage direct US 10Y, tooltip Crb 2-10 affiche US10Y+US2Y Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Capucine Gest
co-authored by
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6
parent
3a39904ce5
commit
eb416be780
+597
-73
@@ -1,7 +1,10 @@
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import { NextRequest, NextResponse } from "next/server";
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import { FRED_SERIES } from "@/lib/constants";
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import type { Currency } from "@/lib/types";
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import cpiOverridesRaw from "@/data/cpi_overrides.json";
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import cpiOverridesRaw from "@/data/cpi_overrides.json";
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import rateDecisionsRaw from "@/data/rate_decisions.json";
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import { fetchFFThisWeek, fetchFFEvents } from "@/lib/forexfactory";
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import type { FFEvent } from "@/lib/forexfactory";
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const FRED_BASE = "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations";
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const REVALIDATE = 86400; // cache 24h
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@@ -147,32 +150,176 @@ async function dbnomicsObs(provider: string, dataset: string, seriesCode: string
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} catch { return []; }
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}
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// ── ForexFactory calendar (PMI primaire) ──────────────────────────────────────
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// ── ForexFactory — fetchFFThisWeek importé depuis @/lib/forexfactory ───────────
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async function fetchFFPMI(currency: string): Promise<{
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mfg: { value: number; prev: number | null } | null;
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svc: { value: number; prev: number | null } | null;
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mfg: { value: number; prev: number | null } | null;
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svc: { value: number; prev: number | null } | null;
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composite: { value: number; prev: number | null } | null;
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}> {
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const empty = { mfg: null, svc: null };
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const empty = { mfg: null, svc: null, composite: null };
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try {
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const res = await fetch("https://nfs.faireconomy.media/ff_calendar_thisweek.json", {
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next: { revalidate: 3600 },
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headers: { "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (compatible; ForexDashboard/1.0)" },
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});
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if (!res.ok) return empty;
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const events = await res.json() as Array<{
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title: string; country: string; actual: string; previous: string;
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}>;
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const forCcy = events.filter((e) => e.country === currency && e.actual);
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const isMfg = (t: string) => /manufacturing\s+pmi|mfg\s+pmi/i.test(t);
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const isSvc = (t: string) => /services?\s+pmi|ism\s+non.manufactur|composite\s+pmi/i.test(t);
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const parse = (e: typeof forCcy[0] | undefined) => {
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const events = await fetchFFThisWeek();
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const forCcy = events.filter((e) => e.country === currency && e.actual);
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const isMfg = (t: string) => /manufacturing\s+pmi|mfg\s+pmi/i.test(t);
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const isComposite = (t: string) => /composite\s+pmi/i.test(t);
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const isSvc = (t: string) => /services?\s+pmi|ism\s+non.manufactur/i.test(t);
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const parse = (e: FFEvent | undefined) => {
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if (!e?.actual) return null;
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const val = parseFloat(e.actual);
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const prev = parseFloat(e.previous ?? "");
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return isNaN(val) ? null : { value: val, prev: isNaN(prev) ? null : prev };
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};
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return { mfg: parse(forCcy.find((e) => isMfg(e.title))), svc: parse(forCcy.find((e) => isSvc(e.title))) };
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return {
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mfg: parse(forCcy.find((e) => isMfg(e.title))),
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svc: parse(forCcy.find((e) => isSvc(e.title))),
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composite: parse(forCcy.find((e) => isComposite(e.title))),
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};
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} catch { return empty; }
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}
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// ── ForexFactory — consensus + surprise post-publication ─────────────────────
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//
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// Règle :
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// • Événement UPCOMING (forecast non vide, actual vide)
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// → afficher le consensus (forecast) dans la colonne "Cons."
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// • Événement RÉCENT (forecast + actual, release ≤ 5 jours)
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// → afficher la surprise = actual − forecast dans la colonne "Surpr."
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// • Événement ANCIEN (> 5 jours) ou sans forecast
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// → null (rien à afficher)
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interface FFForecasts {
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cpi: number | null;
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cpiSurprise: number | null;
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unemployment: number | null;
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unemploymentSurprise: number | null;
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pmiMfg: number | null;
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pmiMfgSurprise: number | null;
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pmiSvc: number | null;
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pmiSvcSurprise: number | null;
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pmiComposite: number | null; // PMI Composite — séparé des Services
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pmiCompositeSurprise: number | null;
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retailSales: number | null;
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retailSalesSurprise: number | null;
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gdp: number | null;
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gdpSurprise: number | null;
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employment: number | null;
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employmentSurprise: number | null;
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}
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async function fetchFFForecasts(currency: string): Promise<FFForecasts> {
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const empty: FFForecasts = {
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cpi: null, cpiSurprise: null,
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unemployment: null, unemploymentSurprise: null,
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pmiMfg: null, pmiMfgSurprise: null,
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pmiSvc: null, pmiSvcSurprise: null,
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pmiComposite: null, pmiCompositeSurprise: null,
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retailSales: null, retailSalesSurprise: null,
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gdp: null, gdpSurprise: null,
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employment: null, employmentSurprise: null,
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};
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try {
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const events = await fetchFFEvents(); // cette semaine + semaine prochaine
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// EUR : ForexFactory tague country="EUR" pour TOUS les pays de la zone (Italie, Espagne…).
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// On garde uniquement les événements dont le titre commence par "Euro Zone" ou "Euro Area"
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// pour éviter de matcher Italian Unemployment, Spanish CPI, etc. à la place des données agrégées.
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const forCcy = currency === "EUR"
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? events.filter((e) => e.country === "EUR" && /^euro(?:zone|[\s-](?:zone|area))/i.test(e.title))
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: events.filter((e) => e.country === currency);
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const parseNum = (raw: string, min: number, max: number): number | null => {
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if (!raw) return null;
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const v = parseFloat(raw.replace(/[^0-9.-]/g, ""));
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return isNaN(v) || v < min || v > max ? null : v;
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};
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/** Premier event dont le titre correspond au pattern ET qui a un forecast. */
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const find = (re: RegExp) => forCcy.find((e) => re.test(e.title) && e.forecast);
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/** Calcul du nombre de jours depuis la date FF de l'événement. */
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const daysSince = (e: FFEvent): number => {
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const d = new Date(e.date);
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return Math.floor((Date.now() - d.getTime()) / 86_400_000);
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};
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/**
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* Retourne { forecast, surprise } pour un event FF :
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* - upcoming : forecast = consensus, surprise = null
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* - ≤5j après : forecast = null, surprise = actual − forecast
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* - >5j après : forecast = null, surprise = null
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*/
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const classify = (e: FFEvent | undefined, min: number, max: number): { forecast: number | null; surprise: number | null } => {
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if (!e) return { forecast: null, surprise: null };
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const fc = parseNum(e.forecast, min, max);
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if (fc === null) return { forecast: null, surprise: null };
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if (!e.actual) {
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// Upcoming : pas encore publié → afficher le consensus
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return { forecast: fc, surprise: null };
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}
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const ac = parseNum(e.actual, min, max);
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if (ac === null) return { forecast: null, surprise: null };
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if (daysSince(e) <= 5) {
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// Publié récemment : afficher la surprise (actual − forecast)
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return { forecast: null, surprise: parseFloat((ac - fc).toFixed(2)) };
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}
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return { forecast: null, surprise: null };
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};
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// CPI y/y — pour JPY on exclut Tokyo/Flash (≠ CPI national)
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const cpiEvent = currency === "JPY"
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? find(/(?:national|all\s+items).*\bcpi\b.*y\s*\/\s*y|\bcpi\b.*(?:national|all\s+items).*y\s*\/\s*y/i)
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: find(/\bcpi\b.*y\s*\/\s*y|y\s*\/\s*y.*\bcpi\b/i);
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const cpiC = classify(cpiEvent, -5, 20);
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// Chômage
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const uneEvent = currency === "EUR"
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? find(/unemployment\s+rate/i)
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: find(/unemployment\s+rate|jobless\s+rate/i);
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const uneC = classify(uneEvent, 0.5, 25);
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// PMI Mfg
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const pmiMfgEvent = find(/manufacturing\s+pmi|flash\s+manufacturing\s+pmi|mfg\s+pmi/i);
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const pmiMfgC = classify(pmiMfgEvent, 20, 80);
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// PMI Services (strict : exclut composite)
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const pmiSvcEvent = find(/services?\s+pmi|ism\s+non.manufactur/i);
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const pmiSvcC = classify(pmiSvcEvent, 20, 80);
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// PMI Composite (séparé du Services)
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const pmiCompositeEvent = find(/composite\s+pmi/i);
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const pmiCompositeC = classify(pmiCompositeEvent, 20, 80);
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// Retail Sales m/m
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const rsEvent = find(/retail\s+sales/i);
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const rsC = classify(rsEvent, -10, 10);
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// PIB (GDP q/q%) : généralement entre -5% et +5%
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const gdpEvent = find(/\bgdp\b.*q\s*\/\s*q|q\s*\/\s*q.*\bgdp\b|gdp\s+growth/i);
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const gdpC = classify(gdpEvent, -5, 5);
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// Emploi Δk — NFP, Employment Change, ADP : en milliers (-500k à +1000k)
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// ForexFactory affiche souvent les valeurs avec "K" ex: "185K"
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const empEvent = find(/non.?farm\s+payrolls|nfp\b|employment\s+change|adp\s+non.?farm/i);
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const empC = classify(empEvent, -500, 1000);
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return {
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cpi: cpiC.forecast,
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cpiSurprise: cpiC.surprise,
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unemployment: uneC.forecast,
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unemploymentSurprise: uneC.surprise,
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pmiMfg: pmiMfgC.forecast,
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pmiMfgSurprise: pmiMfgC.surprise,
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pmiSvc: pmiSvcC.forecast,
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pmiSvcSurprise: pmiSvcC.surprise,
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pmiComposite: pmiCompositeC.forecast,
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pmiCompositeSurprise: pmiCompositeC.surprise,
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retailSales: rsC.forecast,
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retailSalesSurprise: rsC.surprise,
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gdp: gdpC.forecast,
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gdpSurprise: gdpC.surprise,
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employment: empC.forecast,
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employmentSurprise: empC.surprise,
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};
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} catch { return empty; }
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}
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@@ -185,7 +332,7 @@ const TE_COUNTRY: Record<string, string> = {
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async function scrapePMI(
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currency: string,
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indicator: "manufacturing-pmi" | "services-pmi",
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indicator: "manufacturing-pmi" | "services-pmi" | "composite-pmi",
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): Promise<{ value: number | null; prev: number | null }> {
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const country = TE_COUNTRY[currency];
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if (!country) return { value: null, prev: null };
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@@ -206,8 +353,8 @@ async function scrapePMI(
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if (!res.ok) return { value: null, prev: null };
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const html = await res.text();
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const metaMatch =
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html.match(/<meta\s+name=["']description["']\s+content=["']([^"']+)["']/i) ??
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html.match(/<meta\s+content=["']([^"']+)["']\s+name=["']description["']/i);
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html.match(/<meta[^>]*name=["']description["'][^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["']/i) ??
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html.match(/<meta[^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["'][^>]*name=["']description["']/i);
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if (!metaMatch) return { value: null, prev: null };
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const desc = metaMatch[1];
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const numRe = /(?:increased|decreased|declined|rose|fell|eased)\s+to\s*([\d.]+)\s+points?.+?from\s+([\d.]+)\s+points?/i;
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@@ -219,6 +366,135 @@ async function scrapePMI(
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} catch { return { value: null, prev: null }; }
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}
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// ── Trading Economics — taux directeur officiel ───────────────────────────────
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// Scrape la meta description de la page interest-rate, ex :
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// "The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.75 percent."
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async function scrapeTeRate(country: string): Promise<number | null> {
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try {
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const res = await fetch(`https://tradingeconomics.com/${country}/interest-rate`, {
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next: { revalidate: 3600 },
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headers: {
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"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36",
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"Accept": "text/html,application/xhtml+xml,*/*;q=0.8",
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"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
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},
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});
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if (!res.ok) return null;
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const html = await res.text();
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const meta = html.match(/<meta[^>]*name=["']description["'][^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["']/i)
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?? html.match(/<meta[^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["'][^>]*name=["']description["']/i);
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if (!meta) return null;
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const m = meta[1].match(/at\s+([\d.]+)\s*percent/i);
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return m ? parseFloat(m[1]) : null;
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} catch { return null; }
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}
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// ── Trading Economics — GDP QoQ% (pays dont FRED est stale) ─────────────────
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// Meta description : "GDP Growth Rate in X increased to 0.3 percent in Q4 2025 from 0.2 percent..."
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// Retourne { value, prev } directement depuis la description TE.
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async function scrapeTeGdp(country: string): Promise<{ value: number | null; prev: number | null }> {
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const empty = { value: null, prev: null };
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try {
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// TE utilise "gdp-growth" (pas "gdp-growth-rate") pour le taux QoQ
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const res = await fetch(`https://tradingeconomics.com/${country}/gdp-growth`, {
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next: { revalidate: 3600 },
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headers: {
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"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36",
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"Accept": "text/html,application/xhtml+xml,*/*;q=0.8",
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"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
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},
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});
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if (!res.ok) return empty;
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const html = await res.text();
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const meta = html.match(/<meta[^>]*name=["']description["'][^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["']/i)
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?? html.match(/<meta[^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["'][^>]*name=["']description["']/i);
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if (!meta) return empty;
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const desc = meta[1];
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// Format TE GDP : "expanded 0.50 percent in Q1 2026 over the previous quarter"
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// "contracted 0.1 percent in Q3 2025 from 0.9 percent"
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const m1 = desc.match(
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/(?:expanded|contracted|grew|grew by|declined|increased|decreased|rose|fell)\s+(?:by\s+)?([-\d.]+)\s*percent.{0,120}?from\s+([-\d.]+)\s*percent/i
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);
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if (m1) return { value: parseFloat(m1[1]), prev: parseFloat(m1[2]) };
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const m2 = desc.match(
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/(?:expanded|contracted|grew|declined|increased|decreased|rose|fell)\s+(?:by\s+)?([-\d.]+)\s*percent/i
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);
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if (m2) return { value: parseFloat(m2[1]), prev: null };
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return empty;
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} catch { return empty; }
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}
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// ── Trading Economics — Balance commerciale (niveau, normalisé en Milliards devise locale)
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// Format meta TE :
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// "X recorded a trade deficit/surplus of Y.YY EUR/USD/etc. Billion/Million in Month of Year"
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// Normalisation : Million → diviser par 1000 → Milliards
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// Signe : déficit = négatif, surplus = positif
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async function scrapeTeTradeBalance(country: string): Promise<{ value: number | null; prev: number | null }> {
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const empty = { value: null, prev: null };
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try {
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const res = await fetch(`https://tradingeconomics.com/${country}/balance-of-trade`, {
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next: { revalidate: 3600 },
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headers: {
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"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36",
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"Accept": "text/html,application/xhtml+xml,*/*;q=0.8",
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"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
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},
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});
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if (!res.ok) return empty;
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const html = await res.text();
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const meta = html.match(/<meta[^>]*name=["']description["'][^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["']/i)
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?? html.match(/<meta[^>]*content=["']([^"']+)["'][^>]*name=["']description["']/i);
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if (!meta) return empty;
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const desc = meta[1];
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// "recorded a trade deficit of 60.31 USD Billion" / "recorded a trade surplus of 7820.60 EUR Million"
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const m = desc.match(
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/recorded a trade (deficit|surplus) of ([\d,.]+)\s+\w+\s+(Billion|Million)/i
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);
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if (!m) return empty;
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const rawVal = parseFloat(m[2].replace(/,/g, ""));
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const inBillion = m[3].toLowerCase() === "billion";
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const sign = m[1].toLowerCase() === "surplus" ? 1 : -1;
|
||||
const value = parseFloat((sign * (inBillion ? rawVal : rawVal / 1000)).toFixed(2));
|
||||
return { value, prev: null }; // TE meta ne donne pas le mois précédent
|
||||
} catch { return empty; }
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function buildGdpFromTe(te: { value: number; prev: number | null }, date: string): IndicatorResult {
|
||||
const surprise = te.prev !== null ? parseFloat((te.value - te.prev).toFixed(4)) : null;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
value: te.value,
|
||||
prev: te.prev,
|
||||
surprise,
|
||||
trend: surprise !== null ? (surprise > 0 ? "up" : surprise < 0 ? "down" : "flat") : null,
|
||||
lastUpdated: date,
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── rate_decisions.json — taux officiels des CB (actuel + précédent) ──────────
|
||||
// Mettre à jour data/rate_decisions.json après chaque décision CB.
|
||||
|
||||
type RateDecision = { current: number; prev: number };
|
||||
|
||||
function getRateDecision(ccy: string): RateDecision | null {
|
||||
type RdRaw = [{ decisions: Record<string, RateDecision> }];
|
||||
const entry = (rateDecisionsRaw as unknown as RdRaw)[0];
|
||||
return entry?.decisions?.[ccy] ?? null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/** Construit un IndicatorResult à partir de la valeur TE + prev de l'override */
|
||||
function buildRateIndicator(current: number, prev: number, today: string): IndicatorResult {
|
||||
const surprise = parseFloat((current - prev).toFixed(4));
|
||||
return {
|
||||
value: current,
|
||||
prev,
|
||||
surprise,
|
||||
trend: surprise > 0 ? "up" : surprise < 0 ? "down" : "flat",
|
||||
lastUpdated: today,
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Shared helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
type Obs = { date: string; value: number };
|
||||
@@ -268,6 +544,54 @@ function toIndicatorPct(obs: Obs[]) {
|
||||
return toIndicator(pctObs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Calcul glissement annuel (Year-over-Year) depuis un indice niveau.
|
||||
* periods = 12 pour mensuel (M/M-12), 4 pour trimestriel (Q/Q-4).
|
||||
* obs[0] = plus récent, obs[periods] = même période an passé.
|
||||
* Si données insuffisantes, fallback sur toIndicatorPct (MoM/QoQ).
|
||||
*/
|
||||
function toIndicatorYoY(obs: Obs[], periods = 12): IndicatorResult {
|
||||
if (obs.length < periods + 1) return toIndicatorPct(obs); // fallback MoM si pas assez de données
|
||||
const curr = obs[0];
|
||||
const yearAgo = obs[periods];
|
||||
const yoy = parseFloat(((curr.value / yearAgo.value - 1) * 100).toFixed(2));
|
||||
|
||||
// Calcul du YoY précédent (mois/trimestre d'avant) pour surprise & trend
|
||||
const prevYoY = obs.length >= periods + 2
|
||||
? parseFloat(((obs[1].value / obs[periods + 1].value - 1) * 100).toFixed(2))
|
||||
: null;
|
||||
|
||||
const surprise = prevYoY !== null ? parseFloat((yoy - prevYoY).toFixed(4)) : null;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
value: yoy,
|
||||
prev: prevYoY,
|
||||
surprise,
|
||||
trend: surprise !== null ? (yoy > prevYoY! ? "up" : yoy < prevYoY! ? "down" : "flat") : null,
|
||||
lastUpdated: curr.date,
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Calcul du changement absolu en milliers de personnes pour Employment Change.
|
||||
* personsToK = true si la série FRED est en personnes réelles (pas en milliers).
|
||||
* USD PAYEMS est déjà en milliers → personsToK=false.
|
||||
* AUD/CAD/JPY LFEMTTTT* sont en personnes → personsToK=true.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
function toIndicatorDeltaK(obs: Obs[], personsToK: boolean): IndicatorResult {
|
||||
if (obs.length < 2) return null;
|
||||
const raw = obs[0].value - obs[1].value;
|
||||
const valK = personsToK
|
||||
? parseFloat((raw / 1000).toFixed(1))
|
||||
: parseFloat(raw.toFixed(1));
|
||||
return {
|
||||
value: valK,
|
||||
prev: null,
|
||||
surprise: valK, // surprise = la valeur elle-même (signe = direction)
|
||||
trend: valK > 0 ? "up" : valK < 0 ? "down" : "flat",
|
||||
lastUpdated: obs[0].date,
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function toPmiIndicator(raw: { value: number | null; prev: number | null }): IndicatorResult {
|
||||
if (raw.value === null) return null;
|
||||
const surprise = raw.prev !== null ? parseFloat((raw.value - raw.prev).toFixed(2)) : null;
|
||||
@@ -296,13 +620,22 @@ export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
|
||||
const key = process.env.FRED_API_KEY;
|
||||
if (!key) return NextResponse.json({ error: "FRED_API_KEY missing" }, { status: 500 });
|
||||
|
||||
// policyRate / unemployment / retailSales → already % → toIndicator
|
||||
// cpiCore / gdp / employment → index/level → toIndicatorPct
|
||||
const PCT_FIELDS = new Set(["cpiCore", "gdp", "employment"]);
|
||||
// Limites de fetch par champ :
|
||||
// cpiCore → 14 obs (12 mois YoY + 1 pour prev YoY + 1 tampon)
|
||||
// cpiCore AUD/NZD (quarterly) → 6 obs (4 trimestres YoY + 1 prev + 1 tampon)
|
||||
// gdp / employment → 6 obs (QoQ/MoM avec prev)
|
||||
// autres → 5 obs (valeur + prev)
|
||||
const isQuarterlyCpi = (currency === "AUD" || currency === "NZD");
|
||||
const FIELD_LIMITS: Record<string, number> = {
|
||||
cpiCore: isQuarterlyCpi ? 7 : 16, // +2 tampon pour les valeurs "." filtrées par FRED
|
||||
gdp: 6,
|
||||
employment: 6,
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
const fieldMap: Record<string, string | null> = {
|
||||
policyRate: series.policyRate,
|
||||
cpiCore: series.cpiCore,
|
||||
cpiHeadline: series.cpiHeadline, // headline pour MoM — peut être = cpiCore pour GBP
|
||||
gdp: series.gdp,
|
||||
retailSales: series.retailSales,
|
||||
unemployment: series.unemployment,
|
||||
@@ -310,24 +643,52 @@ export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
const fredFields = Object.entries(fieldMap).filter(([, id]) => id !== null) as [string, string][];
|
||||
const fredResults = await Promise.all(fredFields.map(([, id]) => fredObs(id, key)));
|
||||
const fredResults = await Promise.all(
|
||||
fredFields.map(([field, id]) => fredObs(id, key, FIELD_LIMITS[field] ?? 5))
|
||||
);
|
||||
const indicators: Record<string, IndicatorResult> = {};
|
||||
let _cpiCoreObs: Obs[] = []; // sauvegarde obs brutes pour fallback cpiMoM
|
||||
|
||||
fredFields.forEach(([field], i) => {
|
||||
indicators[field] = PCT_FIELDS.has(field)
|
||||
? toIndicatorPct(fredResults[i])
|
||||
: toIndicator(fredResults[i]);
|
||||
if (field === "cpiCore") {
|
||||
_cpiCoreObs = fredResults[i]; // sauvegarder pour le fallback
|
||||
// YoY : 12 périodes pour mensuel, 4 pour trimestriel (AUD/NZD)
|
||||
indicators[field] = toIndicatorYoY(fredResults[i], isQuarterlyCpi ? 4 : 12);
|
||||
} else if (field === "cpiHeadline") {
|
||||
// MoM% : variation mensuelle headline (ou QoQ pour AUD/NZD trimestriel)
|
||||
// Si la série headline FRED est identique à cpiCore (GBP) ou manquante (CHF/CAD) :
|
||||
// le fallback ci-dessous prendra le relais avec les obs cpiCore
|
||||
if (fredResults[i].length >= 2) indicators["cpiMoM"] = toIndicatorPct(fredResults[i]);
|
||||
} else if (field === "gdp") {
|
||||
// NZD NAEXKP01NZQ657S = déjà en QoQ% → toIndicator
|
||||
// Autres = indice niveau → toIndicatorPct (calcul QoQ)
|
||||
indicators[field] = currency === "NZD"
|
||||
? toIndicator(fredResults[i])
|
||||
: toIndicatorPct(fredResults[i]);
|
||||
} else if (field === "employment") {
|
||||
// Delta absolu en milliers. USD PAYEMS = déjà en milliers. Autres = personnes → /1000.
|
||||
const personsToK = currency !== "USD";
|
||||
indicators[field] = toIndicatorDeltaK(fredResults[i], personsToK);
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
indicators[field] = toIndicator(fredResults[i]);
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// ── EUR alternative sources ────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
if (currency === "EUR") {
|
||||
if (!indicators.cpiCore) {
|
||||
// CP0000EZCCM086NEST indisponible → fallback Eurostat prc_hicp_midx (I15 index → MoM%)
|
||||
// prc_hicp_mmr (404 depuis 2025) remplacé par prc_hicp_midx + toIndicatorPct
|
||||
// CP0000EZCCM086NEST indisponible → fallback Eurostat prc_hicp_midx (I15 index → YoY%)
|
||||
const hicp = await eurostatSorted("prc_hicp_midx", {
|
||||
geo: "EA", coicop: "CP00", unit: "I15", freq: "M",
|
||||
}, 6);
|
||||
indicators.cpiCore = toIndicatorPct(hicp);
|
||||
}, 14);
|
||||
indicators.cpiCore = toIndicatorYoY(hicp, 12);
|
||||
// cpiMoM depuis mêmes obs Eurostat HICP
|
||||
if (!indicators.cpiMoM) indicators.cpiMoM = toIndicatorPct(hicp);
|
||||
} else if (!indicators.cpiMoM) {
|
||||
// cpiCore disponible depuis FRED → recalculer MoM depuis mêmes obs
|
||||
// On re-fetch avec limite réduite (2 obs suffisent pour MoM)
|
||||
const hicpMoM = await fredObs("CP0000EZCCM086NEST", key, 3);
|
||||
if (hicpMoM.length) indicators.cpiMoM = toIndicatorPct(hicpMoM);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (!indicators.gdp) {
|
||||
// Essayer EA20 d'abord (données 2023-2025), puis EA19 (fallback automatique via eurostatSorted)
|
||||
@@ -353,25 +714,28 @@ export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
|
||||
|
||||
// ── JPY CPI — IMF/IFS (DBnomics) ─────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
// FRED n'a pas de série JPY CPI mensuelle récente.
|
||||
// M.JP.PCPI_PC_PP_PT = CPI All Items, % change previous period (MoM%), mensuel.
|
||||
// Dernière donnée disponible : 2025-06 (délai ~2 mois vs publication MIC).
|
||||
// La série est DÉJÀ en % → toIndicator (pas toIndicatorPct).
|
||||
// M.JP.PCPI_IX = CPI All Items, indice niveau mensuel → YoY% via toIndicatorYoY
|
||||
// Fallback : M.JP.PCPI_PC_PP_PT = MoM% déjà calculé (si index indisponible)
|
||||
if (currency === "JPY" && !indicators.cpiCore) {
|
||||
const obs = await dbnomicsObs("IMF", "IFS", "M.JP.PCPI_PC_PP_PT");
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.cpiCore = toIndicator(obs);
|
||||
const obsIdx = await dbnomicsObs("IMF", "IFS", "M.JP.PCPI_IX", 14);
|
||||
if (obsIdx.length >= 13) {
|
||||
indicators.cpiCore = toIndicatorYoY(obsIdx, 12);
|
||||
indicators.cpiMoM = toIndicatorPct(obsIdx); // MoM depuis mêmes obs
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
const obsMoM = await dbnomicsObs("IMF", "IFS", "M.JP.PCPI_PC_PP_PT");
|
||||
if (obsMoM.length) { indicators.cpiCore = toIndicator(obsMoM); indicators.cpiMoM = toIndicator(obsMoM); }
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── AUD/NZD CPI fallback — IMF/IFS (DBnomics) ────────────────────────────
|
||||
// FRED AUSCPIALLQINMEI / NZLCPIALLQINMEI = trimestriels index.
|
||||
// Si FRED échoue ou est absent, IMF/IFS fournit les données trimestrielles
|
||||
// via Q.AU.PCPI_IX / Q.NZ.PCPI_IX (index → QoQ% via toIndicatorPct).
|
||||
// Si FRED échoue, IMF/IFS Q.AU.PCPI_IX / Q.NZ.PCPI_IX → YoY% trimestriel
|
||||
if (currency === "AUD" && !indicators.cpiCore) {
|
||||
const obs = await dbnomicsObs("IMF", "IFS", "Q.AU.PCPI_IX");
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.cpiCore = toIndicatorPct(obs);
|
||||
const obs = await dbnomicsObs("IMF", "IFS", "Q.AU.PCPI_IX", 6);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.cpiCore = toIndicatorYoY(obs, 4);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (currency === "NZD" && !indicators.cpiCore) {
|
||||
const obs = await dbnomicsObs("IMF", "IFS", "Q.NZ.PCPI_IX");
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.cpiCore = toIndicatorPct(obs);
|
||||
const obs = await dbnomicsObs("IMF", "IFS", "Q.NZ.PCPI_IX", 6);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.cpiCore = toIndicatorYoY(obs, 4);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── GBP BoE policy rate ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
@@ -398,43 +762,147 @@ export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
|
||||
// • Banque du Canada Valet API : taux annoncé exact (V80691311)
|
||||
// ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
|
||||
// USD — DFEDTARU = borne haute de la cible Fed (quotidien, annonce FOMC)
|
||||
const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
|
||||
|
||||
// USD — midpoint de la fourchette cible (DFEDTARU + DFEDTARL) / 2
|
||||
// Rateprobability.com / marchés quotent le midpoint (3.625%) pas l'upper bound (3.75%)
|
||||
// USD — TE scraping (taux Fed upper bound officiel = 3.75%)
|
||||
// Ancien calcul midpoint FRED (DFEDTARU+DFEDTARL)/2 = 3.625% → pas le taux annoncé
|
||||
if (currency === "USD") {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObs("DFEDTARU", key, 90);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicatorDeduped(obs);
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeRate(TE_COUNTRY.USD);
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("USD");
|
||||
if (te !== null && ovr) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(te, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
} else if (te !== null) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = { value: te, prev: null, surprise: null, trend: null, lastUpdated: today };
|
||||
}
|
||||
// Fallback FRED upper bound (jamais le midpoint)
|
||||
if (!indicators.policyRate) {
|
||||
const upper = await fredObs("DFEDTARU", key, 365);
|
||||
if (upper.length) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = toIndicatorDeduped(upper);
|
||||
if (indicators.policyRate && ovr)
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(indicators.policyRate.value!, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// EUR — ECBDFR déjà utilisé mais mensuel → re-fetch 90j + dédupliqué
|
||||
// EUR — ECBDFR (365j) → on affiche le taux MRO = DFR + 0.15
|
||||
// Depuis sep 2024 : corridor ECB = DFR | MRO = DFR+15bps | MLF = DFR+40bps
|
||||
// Investing.com / Trading Economics affichent le MRO comme "taux BCE"
|
||||
if (currency === "EUR") {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObs("ECBDFR", key, 90);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicatorDeduped(obs);
|
||||
const obs = await fredObs("ECBDFR", key, 365);
|
||||
if (obs.length) {
|
||||
const base = toIndicatorDeduped(obs);
|
||||
if (base) {
|
||||
// Convertit DFR → MRO pour correspondre aux sources de référence
|
||||
const mro: typeof base = {
|
||||
...base,
|
||||
value: parseFloat((base.value + 0.15).toFixed(2)),
|
||||
prev: base.prev !== null ? parseFloat((base.prev + 0.15).toFixed(2)) : null,
|
||||
};
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = mro;
|
||||
if (mro.prev === null) {
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("EUR");
|
||||
if (ovr) indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(mro.value!, ovr.prev + 0.15, today);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// JPY — IRSTCB01JPM156N (taux BoJ officiel, mis à jour depuis hausses 2024)
|
||||
// fallback IR3TIB01JPM156N (TIBOR 3M, trop élevé vs taux BoJ réel)
|
||||
// GBP — TE scraping en primaire (taux BoE officiel 3.75%)
|
||||
// IUDBEDR (BoE API) = taux SONIA effective, légèrement différent du taux annoncé
|
||||
// IR3TIB01GBM156N = LIBOR 3M UK → incorrect
|
||||
if (currency === "GBP") {
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeRate(TE_COUNTRY.GBP);
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("GBP");
|
||||
if (te !== null && ovr) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(te, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
} else if (te !== null) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = { value: te, prev: null, surprise: null, trend: null, lastUpdated: today };
|
||||
}
|
||||
// Fallback : BoE API puis FRED
|
||||
if (!indicators.policyRate) {
|
||||
const boe = await boeRate();
|
||||
if (boe.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicator(boe);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (!indicators.policyRate) {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObs("IR3TIB01GBM156N", key, 6);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicator(obs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// JPY — TE scraping (taux BoJ officiel exact) + prev depuis rate_decisions.json
|
||||
// IRSTCB01JPM156N est stale (données arrêtées fin 2023 sur FRED)
|
||||
// IR3TIB01JPM156N = TIBOR 3M (~1.27%) ≠ taux BoJ réel (~0.75%)
|
||||
if (currency === "JPY") {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObsFreshest("IRSTCB01JPM156N", "IR3TIB01JPM156N", key);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicator(obs);
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeRate(TE_COUNTRY.JPY);
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("JPY");
|
||||
if (te !== null && ovr) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(te, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
} else if (te !== null) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = { value: te, prev: null, surprise: null, trend: null, lastUpdated: today };
|
||||
}
|
||||
// Fallback FRED si TE indisponible
|
||||
if (!indicators.policyRate) {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObsFreshest("IRSTCB01JPM156N", "IR3TIB01JPM156N", key);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicator(obs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// CAD — API Banque du Canada (Valet, gratuit, officiel, JSON)
|
||||
// V80691311 = Taux directeur annoncé (pas le marché)
|
||||
// CHF — TE scraping (taux SNB officiel exact = 0.00%)
|
||||
// IR3TIB01CHM156N = SARON 3M (~-0.04%) ≠ taux SNB officiel
|
||||
if (currency === "CHF") {
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeRate(TE_COUNTRY.CHF);
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("CHF");
|
||||
if (te !== null && ovr) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(te, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
} else if (te !== null) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = { value: te, prev: null, surprise: null, trend: null, lastUpdated: today };
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// CAD — TE scraping (taux BoC cible officiel = 2.25%)
|
||||
// V80691311 = taux marché overnight (4.45%) ≠ cible BoC
|
||||
if (currency === "CAD") {
|
||||
const boc = await bocRate();
|
||||
if (boc.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicatorDeduped(boc);
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeRate(TE_COUNTRY.CAD);
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("CAD");
|
||||
if (te !== null && ovr) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(te, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
} else if (te !== null) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = { value: te, prev: null, surprise: null, trend: null, lastUpdated: today };
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
// Fallback BoC Valet
|
||||
const boc = await bocRate();
|
||||
if (boc.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicatorDeduped(boc);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// NZD — IRSTCB01NZM156N (OCR RBNZ officiel) si plus récent que IR3TIB01
|
||||
// AUD — TE scraping (taux RBA officiel exact = 4.35%)
|
||||
// IR3TIB01AUM156N = taux interbancaire 3M (~4.34%) légèrement différent
|
||||
if (currency === "AUD") {
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeRate(TE_COUNTRY.AUD);
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("AUD");
|
||||
if (te !== null && ovr) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(te, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
} else if (te !== null) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = { value: te, prev: null, surprise: null, trend: null, lastUpdated: today };
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// NZD — TE scraping (taux RBNZ officiel exact = 2.25%)
|
||||
// IRSTCB01NZM156N n'existe pas sur FRED ; IR3TIB01NZM156N = taux marché
|
||||
if (currency === "NZD") {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObsFreshest("IRSTCB01NZM156N", "IR3TIB01NZM156N", key);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicator(obs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// GBP — fallback FRED si BoE API a échoué ci-dessus
|
||||
// IRSTCB01GBM156N n'existe pas sur FRED → IR3TIB01GBM156N (3M interbank mensuel, actif)
|
||||
if (currency === "GBP" && !indicators.policyRate) {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObs("IR3TIB01GBM156N", key, 6);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicator(obs);
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeRate(TE_COUNTRY.NZD);
|
||||
const ovr = getRateDecision("NZD");
|
||||
if (te !== null && ovr) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = buildRateIndicator(te, ovr.prev, today);
|
||||
} else if (te !== null) {
|
||||
indicators.policyRate = { value: te, prev: null, surprise: null, trend: null, lastUpdated: today };
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
const obs = await fredObsFreshest("IRSTCB01NZM156N", "IR3TIB01NZM156N", key);
|
||||
if (obs.length) indicators.policyRate = toIndicator(obs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
@@ -465,14 +933,49 @@ export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
|
||||
// GBP unemployment: Eurostat UK retiré — données stoppées en sept. 2020 (Brexit).
|
||||
// On conserve LRHUTTTTGBM156S (FRED, ILO harmonisé, mis à jour mensuellement).
|
||||
|
||||
// ── PMI : ForexFactory (semaine courante) + fallback TE scraping ───────────
|
||||
const [ffPMI, pmiMfgRaw, pmiSvcRaw] = await Promise.all([
|
||||
// ── GDP : sources TE pour CHF et NZD (FRED stale depuis 2023) ───────────────
|
||||
// CHNGDPNQDSMEI / NAEXKP01NZQ661S dernière obs = 2023-07-01 → utiliser TE
|
||||
if (currency === "CHF" || currency === "NZD") {
|
||||
const te = await scrapeTeGdp(TE_COUNTRY[currency]);
|
||||
if (te.value !== null) indicators.gdp = buildGdpFromTe(te as { value: number; prev: number | null }, today);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Fallback cpiMoM : si cpiHeadline FRED absent/vide (CHF/CAD/AUD/NZD)
|
||||
// → calculer MoM depuis les obs cpiCore déjà disponibles (Core MoM ou QoQ trimestriel)
|
||||
if (!indicators.cpiMoM && _cpiCoreObs.length >= 2) {
|
||||
indicators.cpiMoM = toIndicatorPct(_cpiCoreObs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── PMI (Mfg + Services + Composite) + consensus FF ──────────────────────────
|
||||
const [ffPMI, pmiMfgRaw, pmiSvcRaw, pmiCompositeRaw, ffForecasts] = await Promise.all([
|
||||
fetchFFPMI(currency),
|
||||
scrapePMI(currency, "manufacturing-pmi"),
|
||||
scrapePMI(currency, "services-pmi"),
|
||||
scrapePMI(currency, "composite-pmi"),
|
||||
fetchFFForecasts(currency),
|
||||
]);
|
||||
indicators.pmiMfg = ffPMI.mfg ? toPmiIndicator(ffPMI.mfg) : toPmiIndicator(pmiMfgRaw);
|
||||
indicators.pmiServices = ffPMI.svc ? toPmiIndicator(ffPMI.svc) : toPmiIndicator(pmiSvcRaw);
|
||||
// FF en priorité (forecast + actual) ; TE en fallback
|
||||
indicators.pmiMfg = ffPMI.mfg ? toPmiIndicator(ffPMI.mfg) : toPmiIndicator(pmiMfgRaw);
|
||||
indicators.pmiServices = ffPMI.svc ? toPmiIndicator(ffPMI.svc) : toPmiIndicator(pmiSvcRaw);
|
||||
indicators.pmiComposite = ffPMI.composite ? toPmiIndicator(ffPMI.composite) : toPmiIndicator(pmiCompositeRaw);
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Balance commerciale — Trading Economics (MoM, en milliards) ───────────
|
||||
{
|
||||
const country = TE_COUNTRY[currency];
|
||||
if (country) {
|
||||
const tb = await scrapeTeTradeBalance(country);
|
||||
if (tb.value !== null) {
|
||||
const surprise = tb.prev !== null ? parseFloat((tb.value - tb.prev).toFixed(3)) : null;
|
||||
indicators.tradeBalance = {
|
||||
value: tb.value,
|
||||
prev: tb.prev,
|
||||
surprise,
|
||||
trend: surprise !== null ? (surprise > 0 ? "up" : surprise < 0 ? "down" : "flat") : null,
|
||||
lastUpdated: today,
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Overrides manuels CPI (investing.com) ─────────────────────────────────
|
||||
// Appliqués quand la source automatique (FRED/DBnomics) est en retard.
|
||||
@@ -505,7 +1008,28 @@ export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
|
||||
return NextResponse.json({ ...(staleCache.data as object), stale: true });
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const data = { currency, indicators, fetchedAt: new Date().toISOString() };
|
||||
const data = {
|
||||
currency, indicators,
|
||||
forecasts: {
|
||||
cpi: ffForecasts.cpi,
|
||||
cpiSurprise: ffForecasts.cpiSurprise,
|
||||
unemployment: ffForecasts.unemployment,
|
||||
unemploymentSurprise: ffForecasts.unemploymentSurprise,
|
||||
pmiMfg: ffForecasts.pmiMfg,
|
||||
pmiMfgSurprise: ffForecasts.pmiMfgSurprise,
|
||||
pmiSvc: ffForecasts.pmiSvc,
|
||||
pmiSvcSurprise: ffForecasts.pmiSvcSurprise,
|
||||
pmiComposite: ffForecasts.pmiComposite,
|
||||
pmiCompositeSurprise: ffForecasts.pmiCompositeSurprise,
|
||||
retailSales: ffForecasts.retailSales,
|
||||
retailSalesSurprise: ffForecasts.retailSalesSurprise,
|
||||
gdp: ffForecasts.gdp,
|
||||
gdpSurprise: ffForecasts.gdpSurprise,
|
||||
employment: ffForecasts.employment,
|
||||
employmentSurprise: ffForecasts.employmentSurprise,
|
||||
},
|
||||
fetchedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
};
|
||||
_cache.set(currency, { data, ts: Date.now() });
|
||||
return NextResponse.json(data);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user