GifariKemalandClaude Opus 4.5
7af9183af3
- XGBoost ML model with 37 features for market direction prediction - Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Order Blocks, FVG, BOS, CHoCH - HMM market regime detection (trending/ranging/volatile) - ATR-based stop loss with 1.5 ATR minimum distance - Broker-level SL protection with fallback - Time-based exit (max 6 hours per trade) - Session-aware trading optimized for London/NY overlap - Auto-retraining based on market conditions - Telegram notifications and web dashboard - Backtest results: 63.9% win rate, 2.64 profit factor, 4.83 Sharpe Backtest period: Jan 2025 - Feb 2026, 654 trades, $4,189 net P/L Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
213 lines
5.9 KiB
Markdown
213 lines
5.9 KiB
Markdown
# News Agent — Monitoring Berita Ekonomi
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> **File:** `src/news_agent.py`
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> **Class:** `NewsAgent`
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> **Status:** Aktif tapi **TIDAK MEMBLOKIR** trading (monitoring only)
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---
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## Apa Itu News Agent?
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News Agent memonitor **berita ekonomi high-impact** (NFP, FOMC, CPI) yang bisa menyebabkan volatilitas ekstrem di pasar gold. Awalnya dirancang untuk memblokir trading saat news, tapi setelah backtest menunjukkan bahwa blocking justru **kehilangan $178 profit**, sekarang hanya berfungsi sebagai **monitor dan logger**.
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**Analogi:** News Agent seperti **stasiun cuaca** — melaporkan badai yang datang, tapi pilot (bot) tetap terbang karena pesawat (ML model) sudah cukup tangguh menangani turbulensi.
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---
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## Kenapa Tidak Blocking?
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```
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Hasil Backtest (29 trades):
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- Win rate tanpa filter: 64.9%
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- Win rate saat news: 62.1% (selisih hanya 2.8%)
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- Profit yang hilang jika filter aktif: $178.15
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Kesimpulan:
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-> ML model sudah cukup menangani volatilitas news
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-> Blocking justru kehilangan peluang profit
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-> Monitoring cukup, tidak perlu blocking
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```
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---
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## Event yang Dipantau
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### 3 Event High-Impact
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| Event | Waktu (WIB) | Hari | Dampak ke Gold |
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|-------|-------------|------|---------------|
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| **NFP** (Non-Farm Payroll) | 20:30 | Jumat pertama bulan | Sangat tinggi |
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| **FOMC** (Fed Decision) | 02:00 | ~8x per tahun | Sangat tinggi |
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| **CPI** (Inflation) | 20:30 | Tgl 10-15 (Sel/Rab/Kam) | Tinggi |
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### Deteksi Event
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```python
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# NFP: Jumat pertama bulan
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if weekday == 4 and day <= 7: # Friday, day 1-7
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if 19 <= hour <= 21: # 19:00-21:00 WIB
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return "NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) - HIGH IMPACT"
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# FOMC: Tanggal spesifik (hardcoded schedule)
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fomc_dates = [
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(1,29), (3,19), (5,7), (6,18), (7,30), # 2025
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(9,17), (11,5), (12,17),
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(1,29), (3,18), (5,6), (6,17), (7,29), # 2026
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]
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if (month, day) in fomc_dates:
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if 1 <= hour <= 3: # 01:00-03:00 WIB
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return "FOMC Decision - HIGH IMPACT"
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# CPI: Sekitar tanggal 10-15, hari kerja
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if 10 <= day <= 15 and 19 <= hour <= 21:
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if weekday in [1, 2, 3]: # Selasa-Kamis
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return "CPI (Inflation) - HIGH IMPACT"
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```
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---
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## Buffer Times
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| Parameter | Default | Aktif di Production |
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|-----------|---------|-------------------|
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| `news_buffer_minutes` | 30 menit | **0** (disabled) |
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| `high_impact_buffer_minutes` | 60 menit | **0** (disabled) |
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```python
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# Inisialisasi di main_live.py
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self.news_agent = create_news_agent(
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news_buffer_minutes=0, # No blocking
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high_impact_buffer_minutes=0, # No blocking
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)
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```
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---
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## Market Condition States
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| Kondisi | Bisa Trade? | Lot Multiplier | Trigger |
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|---------|------------|---------------|---------|
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| `SAFE` | Ya | 1.0x | Tidak ada news |
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| `CAUTION` | Ya | 0.5x | News medium-impact |
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| `DANGER_NEWS` | Tidak* | 0.0x | High-impact news |
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| `DANGER_SENTIMENT` | Tidak* | 0.5x | Sentimen sangat bearish |
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*\*Di production, DANGER tetap diizinkan trading (monitoring only)*
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---
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## Analisis Sentimen
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News Agent juga bisa menganalisis headline berita berdasarkan keyword:
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### Keyword Bullish (untuk Gold)
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```
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Geopolitical: war, conflict, invasion, crisis, escalation
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Economic: rate cut, dovish, easing, recession, stimulus
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Market: safe haven, gold surge, gold rally, buy gold
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```
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### Keyword Bearish (untuk Gold)
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```
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Geopolitical: peace deal, ceasefire, de-escalation
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Economic: rate hike, hawkish, tightening, strong dollar
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Market: risk on, stocks rally, sell gold, gold crash
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```
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### Keyword Volatile
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```
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breaking, urgent, flash, sudden, unexpected, shock, crash, spike
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```
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### Scoring
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```
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Setiap keyword match:
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Bullish: +0.3
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Bearish: -0.3
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Volatile: -0.1 (penalty)
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Score range: -1.0 (sangat bearish) sampai +1.0 (sangat bullish)
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Confidence berdasarkan jumlah keyword yang match
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```
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---
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## Method `should_trade()`
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```python
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def should_trade(headlines=None) -> (bool, str, float):
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"""
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Returns:
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can_trade: bool <- Apakah aman trading
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reason: str <- Alasan
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lot_multiplier: float <- Pengali lot (0.0-1.0)
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"""
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# 1. Cek economic calendar (MT5 + hardcoded events)
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# 2. Analisis sentimen (jika ada headlines)
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# 3. Tentukan kondisi pasar
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# 4. Return rekomendasi
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```
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---
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## Integrasi di Main Loop
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```python
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# main_live.py Lines 485-496
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# NEWS AGENT MONITORING (NO BLOCKING)
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can_trade_news, news_reason, news_lot_mult = self.news_agent.should_trade()
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# Hanya LOG, TIDAK block
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if not can_trade_news and loop_count % 300 == 0: # Setiap 5 menit
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logger.info(f"News Agent: HIGH IMPACT NEWS - {news_reason} (trading allowed)")
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# Catatan:
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# - news_lot_mult dihitung tapi TIDAK diterapkan
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# - Trading tetap berjalan normal
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# - Informasi digunakan untuk logging dan analisis
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```
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---
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## Sumber Data
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| Sumber | Status | Keterangan |
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|--------|--------|-----------|
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| **MT5 Calendar** | Aktif | Cek economic calendar dari terminal |
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| **Hardcoded Events** | Aktif (Fallback) | NFP, FOMC, CPI schedule |
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| **NewsAPI** | Tersedia, tidak digunakan | External API (butuh API key) |
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| **ForexFactory** | Tersedia, tidak diimplementasi | Placeholder untuk scraping |
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---
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## Konfigurasi
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```python
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NewsAgent(
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news_buffer_minutes=30, # Buffer news biasa (disabled: 0)
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high_impact_buffer_minutes=60, # Buffer high-impact (disabled: 0)
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enable_mt5_calendar=True, # Cek MT5 calendar
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enable_sentiment=True, # Analisis sentimen
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)
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# Cache
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_cache_duration = 15 menit # Cache hasil calendar check
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```
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---
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## Contoh Output Log
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```
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[14:30] News Agent: HIGH IMPACT NEWS - NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) (trading allowed)
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[14:35] News Agent: Market condition SAFE - no upcoming events
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[20:25] News Agent: HIGH IMPACT NEWS - CPI (Inflation) (trading allowed)
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```
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**Catatan:** Meskipun terdeteksi "HIGH IMPACT NEWS", bot tetap trading. Log ini berguna untuk analisis post-trade — apakah trade yang terjadi saat news perform baik atau buruk.
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