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Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Co-authored-by: aider (openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4) <aider@aider.chat> Co-authored-by: Warp <agent@warp.dev>
359 lines
13 KiB
Markdown
359 lines
13 KiB
Markdown
# JMA: Jurik Moving Average
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> "The spectral approach isn't marketing. It's the difference between guessing at volatility and measuring it."
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JMA (Jurik Moving Average) is Mark Jurik's flagship adaptive smoother, recovered through decompilation of his proprietary AmiBroker/MetaTrader binaries. Unlike forum-sourced approximations that use exponential volatility smoothing, this implementation maintains a 128-bar volatility distribution and applies percentile trimming to derive a robust reference. The result: identical behavior to Jurik's commercial software within floating-point tolerance, including spike rejection during 3-sigma events where approximations diverge by 3-4%.
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## Historical Context
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Mark Jurik developed JMA in the 1990s and sold it as compiled DLLs. No source code. No documentation of the algorithm. Just binaries and marketing copy about "spectral analysis" and "adaptive smoothing."
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For years, traders reverse-engineered approximations. The common pattern: three-stage exponential smoothing (EMA → Kalman → Jurik filter) with volatility tracked via running averages. These approximations work. They track price well. They appear in countless trading systems.
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Then persistent engineers decompiled the actual binaries.
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The revelation: Jurik didn't use exponential smoothing for volatility. He maintained a 128-sample distribution and computed a trimmed mean (middle 65 of 128 samples when the buffer is full). This Winsorized estimator rejects outliers by design. A 5-sigma spike doesn't corrupt the volatility reference because it falls outside the 32nd-96th percentile trim.
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QuanTAlib implements the actual decompiled algorithm, not the forum approximations. The PineScript reference in `lib/trends_IIR/jma/jma.pine` derives from canonical AmiBroker ports.
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## Architecture & Physics
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JMA is a dynamic, volatility-adaptive system with five interconnected components:
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### 1. Adaptive Envelope (UpperBand / LowerBand)
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Two asymmetric bands track price extremes via conditional update rules:
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$$
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U_t = \begin{cases}
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P_t & \text{if } P_t > U_{t-1} \\
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U_{t-1} + \beta_t (P_t - U_{t-1}) & \text{otherwise}
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\end{cases}
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$$
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$$
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L_t = \begin{cases}
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P_t & \text{if } P_t < L_{t-1} \\
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L_{t-1} + \beta_t (P_t - L_{t-1}) & \text{otherwise}
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\end{cases}
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$$
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where $\beta_t = \text{adapt}$ is the adaptive decay rate derived from the dynamic exponent.
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When price breaks the band, it snaps immediately. Otherwise, the band decays toward price at rate $\beta$. This asymmetry lets JMA respond instantly to breakouts while smoothing retracements.
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Note: Some implementations (including the PineScript reference) name these `paramA`/`paramB`. Same logic, different names.
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### 2. Local Deviation
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The instantaneous deviation measures distance from the envelope bands:
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$$
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\Delta_t = \max(|P_t - U_{t-1}|, |P_t - L_{t-1}|) + 10^{-10}
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$$
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where $U$ is UpperBand and $L$ is LowerBand. The $10^{-10}$ prevents division by zero downstream.
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### 3. Short Volatility (10-bar SMA)
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The local deviation is smoothed with a 10-bar simple moving average:
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$$
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V_t = \frac{1}{10} \sum_{i=0}^{9} \Delta_{t-i}
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$$
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This `highD` value feeds into the distribution buffer.
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### 4. Volatility Distribution (128-sample trimmed mean)
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Here's where JMA differs from approximations.
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A 128-sample circular buffer stores `highD` values. On each bar, the buffer is sorted and a trimmed mean is computed:
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**Full buffer (128 samples):**
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$$
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\hat{V}_t = \frac{1}{65} \sum_{i=32}^{96} \text{sorted}[i]
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$$
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The middle 65 values (indices 32-96) represent approximately the 25th-75th percentile. Outliers on both tails are discarded.
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**Partial buffer (16-127 samples):**
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$$
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s = \max(5, \text{round}(0.5 \times \text{count}))
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$$
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$$
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k = \lfloor(\text{count} - s) / 2\rfloor
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$$
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$$
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\hat{V}_t = \frac{1}{s} \sum_{i=k}^{k+s-1} \text{sorted}[i]
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$$
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During warmup, the trim ratio adapts dynamically.
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**Why this matters:** Exponential smoothing treats every spike equally. A 5% gap-up and a 0.5% wiggle both influence the average proportionally. Distribution trimming asks: "Is this spike unusual relative to the past 128 bars?" If the answer is yes, it gets discarded. JMA's volatility reference stays stable during flash crashes, earnings surprises, and circuit breakers.
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### 5. Two-Pole IIR Core
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The final JMA value is computed via a phase-adjustable 2-pole infinite impulse response filter with transfer function:
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$$
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H(z) = \frac{(1-\alpha)(1 + \phi(1-\lambda))}{1 - (\alpha + \lambda)z^{-1} + \alpha\lambda z^{-2}}
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$$
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where $\alpha = \lambda^{d_t}$, $\lambda$ is the length divider, $\phi$ is the phase factor, and $d_t$ is the dynamic exponent.
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The state-space form implements three coupled recursions (see IIR Recursion below). The dynamic exponent $d$ controls filter speed: high $d$ (trending market) increases $\alpha$, making the filter faster; low $d$ (choppy market) decreases $\alpha$, making the filter smoother.
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## Mathematical Foundation
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### Dynamic Exponent Calculation
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$$
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r_t = \frac{|\Delta_t|}{\hat{V}_t}
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$$
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$$
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d_t = \text{clamp}(r_t^{P_{exp}}, 1, \text{logParam})
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$$
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where:
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- $P_{exp} = \max(\text{logParam} - 2, 0.5)$
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- $\text{logParam} = \max(\log_2(\sqrt{L}) + 2, 0)$
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- $L = (N - 1) / 2$, and $N$ is the period
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### Adaptive Decay Rate
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$$
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\text{adapt} = \text{sqrtDivider}^{\sqrt{d}}
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$$
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where $\text{sqrtDivider} = \frac{\sqrt{L} \times \text{logParam}}{\sqrt{L} \times \text{logParam} + 1}$
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### Filter Coefficients
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$$
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\alpha_t = \text{lengthDivider}^{d_t}
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$$
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where $\text{lengthDivider} = \frac{0.9L}{0.9L + 2}$
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### IIR Recursion
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$$
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C_{0,t} = (1 - \alpha_t) \cdot P_t + \alpha_t \cdot C_{0,t-1}
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$$
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$$
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C_{8,t} = (P_t - C_{0,t}) \cdot (1 - \text{lengthDivider}) + \text{lengthDivider} \cdot C_{8,t-1}
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$$
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$$
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A_{8,t} = (\phi \cdot C_{8,t} + C_{0,t} - \text{JMA}_{t-1}) \cdot (1 - 2\alpha_t + \alpha_t^2) + \alpha_t^2 \cdot A_{8,t-1}
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$$
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$$
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\text{JMA}_t = \text{JMA}_{t-1} + A_{8,t}
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$$
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where $\phi$ is the phase parameter mapped from `[-100, 100]` to `[0.5, 2.5]`:
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$$
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\phi = \text{clamp}(0.01 \times \text{phase} + 1.5, 0.5, 2.5)
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$$
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## Performance Profile
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### Operation Count (Streaming Mode, Scalar)
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One JMA value requires the following operations:
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| Operation | Count | Cost (cycles) | Subtotal |
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| :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: |
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| ADD/SUB | 77 | 1 | 77 |
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| MUL | 7 | 3 | 21 |
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| DIV | 3 | 15 | 45 |
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| CMP/ABS | 7 | 1 | 7 |
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| SQRT | 1 | 15 | 15 |
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| EXP | 2 | 50 | 100 |
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| POW | 1 | 80 | 80 |
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| SORT (128 elem) | 1 | ~900 | 900 |
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| **Total** | **99** | — | **~1,245 cycles** |
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The 128-element sort dominates computational cost (~72% of total cycles).
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### Batch Mode (512 values, SIMD/FMA)
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JMA is inherently recursive—each bar depends on previous state. SIMD parallelization across bars is not possible. However, within-bar operations can be vectorized:
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| Operation | Scalar Ops | SIMD Ops (AVX2) | Speedup |
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| :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: |
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| Trimmed mean sum (65 values) | 64 ADD | 8 VADDPD | 8× |
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| FMA operations (IIR filter) | 9 (MUL+ADD pairs) | 3 VFMADD | 3× |
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**Per-bar savings with SIMD/FMA:**
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| Optimization | Cycles Saved | New Total |
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| :--- | :---: | :---: |
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| SumSIMD for trimmed mean | ~56 | 1,189 |
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| FMA in IIR filter | ~12 | 1,177 |
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| FMA in band update | ~4 | 1,173 |
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| **Total SIMD/FMA savings** | **~72 cycles** | **~1,173 cycles** |
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**Batch efficiency (512 bars):**
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| Mode | Cycles/bar | Total (512 bars) | Overhead |
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| :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: |
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| Scalar streaming | 1,245 | 637,440 | — |
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| SIMD/FMA streaming | 1,173 | 600,576 | — |
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| **Improvement** | **5.8%** | **36,864 saved** | — |
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The modest 5.8% improvement reflects JMA's inherent limitations:
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1. **Sort dominates**: 900 of 1,245 cycles are spent sorting (comparison-based, not SIMD-friendly)
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2. **Recursive state**: The IIR filter and band updates depend on previous bar's output
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3. **Small SIMD windows**: Only the 65-value sum benefits significantly from vectorization
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### Quality Metrics
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| Metric | Score | Notes |
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| :--- | :---: | :--- |
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| **Accuracy** | 9/10 | Tracks price with high fidelity |
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| **Timeliness** | 9/10 | Minimal lag via adaptive exponent |
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| **Overshoot** | 8/10 | Controlled via phase parameter |
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| **Smoothness** | 9/10 | Exceptional noise rejection |
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| **Spike Rejection** | 9/10 | Distribution trimming discards outliers |
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## Validation
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JMA is proprietary. No open-source library implements it. Validation is performed against decompiled reference implementations.
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| Library | Status | Notes |
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| :--- | :---: | :--- |
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| **TA-Lib** | N/A | Not implemented |
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| **Skender** | N/A | Not implemented |
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| **Tulip** | N/A | Not implemented |
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| **Ooples** | N/A | Not implemented |
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| **Decompiled Reference** | ✅ | Matches Kositsin/AmiBroker ports |
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## Common Pitfalls
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1. **Warmup Period Is Long**: JMA requires approximately $20 + 80 \times N^{0.36}$ bars to stabilize, plus 128 bars to fill the volatility distribution. For JMA(14), allow ~215 + 128 = 343 bars before trusting signals. The distribution buffer affects volatility reference quality.
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2. **Phase Parameter Confusion**: Positive values (up to 100) make JMA overshoot like DEMA. Negative values (down to -100) add lag but smooth better. Zero is neutral. Most traders use phase 0 or slightly negative.
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3. **Power Parameter Does Nothing**: The `power` parameter exists for API compatibility. This implementation ignores it, matching the PineScript reference. Use `period` and `phase` to control behavior. If migrating from an approximation that used power ≠ 0.45, expect different outputs.
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4. **Computational Cost**: JMA is ~100-200× more expensive than EMA per bar. The 128-element sort runs every bar. For universe scans across thousands of symbols, this adds up. Consider caching or reducing update frequency.
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5. **Memory Footprint**: ~2.5 KB per instance (vs ~300 bytes for forum approximations). The 128-bar distribution buffer dominates. For 5,000 concurrent instances, budget ~12.5 MB.
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6. **Spike Rejection Has Limits**: Distribution trimming works for isolated spikes. Sustained high volatility (multiple days) will eventually shift the distribution reference. JMA adapts, but not instantly.
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7. **Using isNew Incorrectly**: When processing live ticks within the same bar, use `Update(value, isNew: false)`. When a new bar opens, use `isNew: true` (default). Getting this wrong corrupts state and buffer snapshots.
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## C# Implementation Considerations
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### Dual RingBuffer Architecture
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The implementation uses two `RingBuffer` instances:
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- `_devBuffer` (10 samples): Tracks local deviation for short-term volatility SMA
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- `_volBuffer` (128 samples): Maintains the volatility distribution for trimmed mean calculation
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Both buffers support `Snapshot()` / `Restore()` for bar correction when `isNew=false`.
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### State Record Struct with Auto Layout
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All IIR filter state is packed into a `record struct` with `LayoutKind.Auto` for compiler-optimized field ordering:
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```csharp
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[StructLayout(LayoutKind.Auto)]
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private record struct State
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{
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public double UpperBand;
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public double LowerBand;
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public double LastC0;
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public double LastC8;
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public double LastA8;
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public double LastJma;
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public double LastPrice;
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public int Bars;
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}
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```
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### Precomputed Logarithms for Exp Optimization
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Instead of computing `Math.Pow(base, exponent)` on every bar, the implementation precomputes `log(base)` and uses `Math.Exp(log_base * exponent)`:
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```csharp
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_logLengthDivider = Math.Log(Math.Max(_lengthDivider, 1e-12));
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_logSqrtDivider = Math.Log(Math.Max(sqrtDivider, 1e-12));
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// Later: Math.Exp(_logLengthDivider * d) instead of Math.Pow(_lengthDivider, d)
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```
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This replaces expensive `Math.Pow` (~80 cycles) with `Math.Exp` (~50 cycles).
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### FusedMultiplyAdd for IIR Calculations
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All EMA and IIR filter operations use `Math.FusedMultiplyAdd` for hardware-optimized precision:
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```csharp
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double c0 = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(_state.LastC0, alpha, decay * value);
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double c8 = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(_state.LastC8, _lengthDivider, lengthDecay * (value - c0));
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double a8 = Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(_state.LastA8, alpha2, Math.FusedMultiplyAdd(_phaseParam, c8, c0 - prevJma) * coef);
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```
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### Stack-Allocated Sorting Buffer
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The trimmed mean calculation uses `stackalloc` instead of heap allocation:
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```csharp
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Span<double> sorted = stackalloc double[count]; // max 1KB for 128 doubles
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_volBuffer.CopyTo(sorted);
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sorted.Sort();
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```
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This eliminates GC pressure during the per-bar sort operation.
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### SIMD-Accelerated Summation
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The trimmed mean summation uses `SumSIMD()` extension method for vectorized addition of the 65 central values:
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```csharp
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return sorted.Slice(start, len).SumSIMD() / len;
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```
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### Bar Correction via State + Buffer Snapshots
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The `_state` / `_p_state` pattern combined with buffer snapshots enables bar correction:
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```csharp
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if (isNew)
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{
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_p_state = _state;
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_devBuffer.Snapshot();
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_volBuffer.Snapshot();
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}
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else
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{
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_state = _p_state;
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_devBuffer.Restore();
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_volBuffer.Restore();
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}
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```
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### Aggressive Inlining
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All hot-path methods are decorated with `[MethodImpl(MethodImplOptions.AggressiveInlining)]`:
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- `Step()`, `HandleStateSnapshot()`, `UpdateBands()`, `CalculateIIRFilter()`
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- `CalculateJurikExponent()`, `CalculateTrimmedMean()`
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### Memory Layout Summary
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- **Two RingBuffers**: 10 × 8 + 128 × 8 = 1,104 bytes
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- **State struct**: ~72 bytes (8 doubles + 1 int)
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- **Precomputed coefficients**: ~56 bytes (7 doubles)
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- **Total per instance**: ~1,250 bytes typical
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## References
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- Jurik Research. (1998-2005). "JMA White Papers." *jurikres.com* (archived).
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- Kositsin, Nikolay. (2007). "Digital Indicators for MetaTrader 4." *Alpari Forum Archives*. |