PolymarketDocumentation/docs/polymarket-learn/FAQ/what-are-prediction-markets.md

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aria-hidden="true"><svg width="6" height="10" viewBox="0 0 6 10" class="block h-2 w-2 fill-body-secondary-color rtl:rotate-180" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M0.648862 0.898862C0.316916 1.23081 0.316916 1.769 0.648862 2.10094L3.54782 4.9999L0.648862 7.89886C0.316916 8.23081 0.316917 8.769 0.648862 9.10094C0.980808 9.43289 1.519 9.43289 1.85094 9.10094L5.35094 5.60094C5.68289 5.269 5.68289 4.73081 5.35094 4.39886L1.85094 0.898862C1.519 0.566916 0.980807 0.566916 0.648862 0.898862Z"></path></svg></div></li><li class="contents"><a href="https://help.polymarket.com/en/collections/17859622-faqs" class="pr-2 text-body-primary-color no-underline hover:text-body-secondary-color" data-testid="breadcrumb-0">FAQs</a><div class="pr-2" aria-hidden="true"><svg width="6" height="10" viewBox="0 0 6 10" class="block h-2 w-2 fill-body-secondary-color rtl:rotate-180" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M0.648862 0.898862C0.316916 1.23081 0.316916 1.769 0.648862 2.10094L3.54782 4.9999L0.648862 7.89886C0.316916 8.23081 0.316917 8.769 0.648862 9.10094C0.980808 9.43289 1.519 9.43289 1.85094 9.10094L5.35094 5.60094C5.68289 5.269 5.68289 4.73081 5.35094 4.39886L1.85094 0.898862C1.519 0.566916 0.980807 0.566916 0.648862 0.898862Z"></path></svg></div></li><li aria-current="page" class="text-body-secondary-color">What is a Prediction Market?</li></ol></nav></div></div><div class=""><div class="article intercom-force-break"><div class="mb-10 max-lg:mb-6"><div class="flex flex-col gap-4"><div class="flex flex-col"><h1 class="mb-1 font-primary text-2xl font-bold leading-10 text-body-primary-color">What is a Prediction Market?</h1><div class="text-md font-normal leading-normal text-body-secondary-color"><p>How people collectively forecast the future.</p></div></div><div class="avatar"><div class="avatar__info -mt-0.5 text-base"><span class="text-body-secondary-color"> <time dateTime="2026-01-11T21:41:37Z" title="Updated over 4 months ago">January 11, 2026</time></span></div></div></div></div><div class="jsx-4bed0c08ce36899e flex-col"><div class="jsx-4bed0c08ce36899e mb-7 ml-0 text-md max-messenger:mb-6 lg:hidden"><div class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 table-of-contents max-h-[calc(100vh-96px)] overflow-y-auto rounded-2xl text-body-primary-color hover:text-primary max-lg:border max-lg:border-solid max-lg:border-body-border max-lg:shadow-solid-1"><div data-testid="toc-dropdown" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 hidden cursor-pointer justify-between border-b max-lg:flex max-lg:flex-row max-lg:border-x-0 max-lg:border-t-0 max-lg:border-solid max-lg:border-b-body-border border-b-0"><div class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 my-2 max-lg:pl-4">Table of contents</div><div class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 "><svg class="ml-2 mr-4 mt-3 transition-transform" transform="" width="16" height="16" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M3.93353 5.93451C4.24595 5.62209 4.75248 5.62209 5.0649 5.93451L7.99922 8.86882L10.9335 5.93451C11.246 5.62209 11.7525 5.62209 12.0649 5.93451C12.3773 6.24693 12.3773 6.75346 12.0649 7.06588L8.5649 10.5659C8.25249 10.8783 7.74595 10.8783 7.43353 10.5659L3.93353 7.06588C3.62111 6.75346 3.62111 6.24693 3.93353 5.93451Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></div></div><div data-testid="toc-body" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 hidden my-2"><section data-testid="toc-section-0" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 flex border-y-0 border-e-0 border-s-2 border-solid py-1.5 max-lg:border-none border-body-toc-active-border px-7"><a id="#h_8d510aab0a" href="#h_8d510aab0a" data-testid="toc-link-0" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 w-full no-underline hover:text-body-primary-color max-lg:inline-block max-lg:text-body-primary-color max-lg:hover:text-primary lg:text-base font-toc-active text-body-primary-color"></a></section><section data-testid="toc-section-1" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 flex border-y-0 border-e-0 border-s-2 border-solid py-1.5 max-lg:border-none px-7"><a id="#h_fc5e501742" href="#h_fc5e501742" data-testid="toc-link-1" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 w-full no-underline hover:text-body-primary-color max-lg:inline-block max-lg:text-body-primary-color max-lg:hover:text-primary lg:text-base text-body-toc-inactive-color"></a></section><section data-testid="toc-section-2" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 flex border-y-0 border-e-0 border-s-2 border-solid py-1.5 max-lg:border-none px-7"><a id="#h_9b7590a54e" href="#h_9b7590a54e" data-testid="toc-link-2" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 w-full no-underline hover:text-body-primary-color max-lg:inline-block max-lg:text-body-primary-color max-lg:hover:text-primary lg:text-base text-body-toc-inactive-color"></a></section><section data-testid="toc-section-3" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 flex border-y-0 border-e-0 border-s-2 border-solid py-1.5 max-lg:border-none px-7"><a id="#h_e27f3e6154" href="#h_e27f3e6154" data-testid="toc-link-3" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 w-full no-underline hover:text-body-primary-color max-lg:inline-block max-lg:text-body-primary-color max-lg:hover:text-primary lg:text-base text-body-toc-inactive-color"></a></section><section data-testid="toc-section-4" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 flex border-y-0 border-e-0 border-s-2 border-solid py-1.5 max-lg:border-none px-7"><a id="#h_4b33f93d20" href="#h_4b33f93d20" data-testid="toc-link-4" class="jsx-27f84a20f81f6ce9 w-full no-underline hover:text-body-primary-color max-lg:inline-block max-lg:text-body-primary-color max-lg:hover:text-primary lg:text-base text-body-toc-inactive-color"></a></section></div></div></div><div class="jsx-4bed0c08ce36899e article_body"><article class="jsx-4bed0c08ce36899e "><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>A prediction market is a platform where people can bet on the outcome of future events. By buying and selling shares in the outcomes, participants collectively forecast the likelihood of events such as sports results, political elections, or entertainment awards.</p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p> </p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-subheading intercom-interblocks-align-left"><h2 id="h_8d510aab0a"><b>How it works</b></h2></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>Market Prices = Probabilities: The price of shares in a prediction market represents the current probability of an event happening. For example, if shares of an event are trading at 20 cents, it indicates a 20% chance of that event occurring.</p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p> </p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-subheading intercom-interblocks-align-left"><h2 id="h_fc5e501742"><b>Making predictions</b></h2></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>If you believe the actual probability of an event is higher than the market price suggests, you can buy shares. For instance, if you think a team has a better than 20% chance of winning, you would buy shares at 20 cents. If the event occurs, each share becomes worth $1, yielding a profit.</p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p> </p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-subheading intercom-interblocks-align-left"><h2 id="h_9b7590a54e"><b>Free-market trading</b></h2></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>You can buy or sell shares at any time before the event concludes, based on new information or changing circumstances. This flexibility allows the market prices to continuously reflect the most current and accurate probabilities.</p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p> </p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-subheading intercom-interblocks-align-left"><h2 id="h_e27f3e6154"><b>Trust the markets</b></h2></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>Prediction markets provide unbiased and accurate probabilities in real time, cutting through the noise of human and media biases. Traditional sources often have their own incentives and slants, but prediction markets operate on the principle of “put your money where your mouth is.” Here, participants are financially motivated to provide truthful insights, as their profits depend on the accuracy of their predictions.</p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p> </p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>In a prediction market, prices reflect the aggregated sentiment of all participants, weighing news, data, expert opinions, and culture to determine the true odds. Unlike media narratives, which can be swayed by various biases, prediction markets offer a transparent view of where people genuinely believe we’re heading.</p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p> </p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-subheading intercom-interblocks-align-left"><h2 id="h_4b33f93d20"><b>Why use prediction markets?</b></h2></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>Prediction markets are often more accurate than traditional polls and expert predictions. The collective wisdom of diverse participants, each motivated by the potential for profit, leads to highly reliable forecasts. This makes prediction markets an excellent tool for gauging real-time probabilities of future events.</p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p> </p></div><div class="intercom-interblocks-paragraph no-margin intercom-interblocks-align-left"><p>Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, offers a user-friendly platform to bet on a wide range of topics, from sports to politics. By participating, you can profit from your knowledge while contributing to the accuracy of market predictions.</p></div><section class="jsx-62724fba150252e0 related_articles my-6"><hr class="jsx-62724fba150252e0 my-6 sm:my-8"/><div class="jsx-62724fba150252e0 mb-3 text-xl font-bold">Related Articles</div><section class="flex flex-col rounded-card border border-solid border-card-border bg-card-bg p-2 sm:p-3"><a class="duration-250 group/article flex flex-row justify-between gap-2 py-2 no-underline transition ease-linear hover:bg-primary-alpha-10 hover:text-primary sm:rounded-card-inner sm:py-3 rounded-card-inner px-3" href="https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-polymarket" data-testid="article-link"><div class="flex flex-col p-0"><span class="m-0 text-md text-body-primary-color group-hover/article:text-primary">What is Polymarket</span></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col justify-center p-0"><svg class="block h-4 w-4 text-primary ltr:-rotate-90 rtl:rotate-90" 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By buying and selling shares in the outcomes, participants collectively forecast the likelihood of events such as sports results, political elections, or entertainment awards.","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":" ","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"subheading","text":"\u003cb\u003eHow it works\u003c/b\u003e","idAttribute":"h_8d510aab0a"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Market Prices = Probabilities: The price of shares in a prediction market represents the current probability of an event happening. For example, if shares of an event are trading at 20 cents, it indicates a 20% chance of that event occurring.","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":" ","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"subheading","text":"\u003cb\u003eMaking predictions\u003c/b\u003e","idAttribute":"h_fc5e501742"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"If you believe the actual probability of an event is higher than the market price suggests, you can buy shares. For instance, if you think a team has a better than 20% chance of winning, you would buy shares at 20 cents. If the event occurs, each share becomes worth $1, yielding a profit.","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":" ","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"subheading","text":"\u003cb\u003eFree-market trading\u003c/b\u003e","idAttribute":"h_9b7590a54e"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"You can buy or sell shares at any time before the event concludes, based on new information or changing circumstances. This flexibility allows the market prices to continuously reflect the most current and accurate probabilities.","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":" ","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"subheading","text":"\u003cb\u003eTrust the markets\u003c/b\u003e","idAttribute":"h_e27f3e6154"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Prediction markets provide unbiased and accurate probabilities in real time, cutting through the noise of human and media biases. Traditional sources often have their own incentives and slants, but prediction markets operate on the principle of “put your money where your mouth is.” Here, participants are financially motivated to provide truthful insights, as their profits depend on the accuracy of their predictions.","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":" ","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"In a prediction market, prices reflect the aggregated sentiment of all participants, weighing news, data, expert opinions, and culture to determine the true odds. Unlike media narratives, which can be swayed by various biases, prediction markets offer a transparent view of where people genuinely believe we’re heading.","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":" ","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"subheading","text":"\u003cb\u003eWhy use prediction markets?\u003c/b\u003e","idAttribute":"h_4b33f93d20"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Prediction markets are often more accurate than traditional polls and expert predictions. The collective wisdom of diverse participants, each motivated by the potential for profit, leads to highly reliable forecasts. This makes prediction markets an excellent tool for gauging real-time probabilities of future events.","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":" ","class":"no-margin"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, offers a user-friendly platform to bet on a wide range of topics, from sports to politics. 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