🌡️ PolyWeather: Polymarket Weather Trading Monitor

An intelligent monitoring and alerting system based on multi-source real-time meteorological data and Polymarket market pricing deviation analysis.

🚀 Quick Start

Requirements

• Python 3.11 (Required for py-clob-client dependency)
• All dependencies installed: pip install -r requirements.txt

Windows

# Option 1: Use Python 3.11 launcher
py -3.11 run.py

# Option 2: Activate virtual environment first
.venv\Scripts\activate
python run.py

Linux/VPS

# Use screen to keep it running in background
screen -S polyweather
python3.11 run.py

# Detach: Press Ctrl+A then D
# Reattach: screen -r polyweather

This command launches:

1. Monitoring Engine: Scans markets 24/7, providing 85¢-95¢ Price Alerts and Market Anomalies.
2. Command Listener: Handles Telegram commands and returns real-time signals.

---

🤖 Telegram Bot Commands

Command	Description	Usage
/signal	Get Trading Signals	Returns Top 5 markets with earliest settlement
/city [name]	Query City Details	Get market info, forecast & live temperature
/portfolio	View Portfolio	Get real-time paper trading profit report
/status	Check Status	Confirm if the monitoring engine is online
/help	Help	Display all available commands

/city Command Example

/city chicago

Output:

📍 Chicago Market Details
════════════════════

🕐 Local Time: 08:30

📊 Open-Meteo Forecast
👉 Today: High 38°F
   02-08: High 42°F
   02-09: High 45°F

✈️ Airport Obs (KORD)
   🌡️ 32.0°F
   💨 Wind: 12kt
   🕐 Observed: 14:00 UTC

📅 2026-02-07 Forecast:38°F
──────────────────
🔥 40-41°F: No 94¢ →Buy NO
🔥 38-39°F: Yes 91¢ →Buy YES
⭐ 36-37°F: No 87¢ →Buy NO

Supported abbreviations: chi (Chicago), nyc (New York), atl (Atlanta), sea (Seattle), dal (Dallas), mia (Miami)

---

🎯 Smart Dynamic Position Strategy

The system automatically decides the position size based on Open-Meteo Weather Forecasts, Volume, and Price Locking Degree:

Condition Combination	Size	Tag	Description
Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support + High Volume	$10	🔥High Confidence	Triple confirmation, Heavy stake
Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support	$7	⭐Mid Confidence	Double confirmation
Price ≥92¢	$5	📌Price Locked	Pure price locking
Other 85-91¢	$3	💡Probe	Minimum stake for probing

Weather Support Logic

• Buy NO: Open-Meteo predicted temperature is outside the option range (with ±2° tolerance).
• Buy YES: Open-Meteo predicted temperature falls within the option range.

Volume Detection

• High Volume: Individual option volume ≥ $5,000.

---

📢 Alerting Dimensions

1. 📂 City Alert Summaries (Push)

• Optimization: All anomalies for the same city are merged into a single report per scan cycle to prevent spamming.

• Price Source: Uses real Ask price (actual executable price), not mid price

• Push Format:

  📍 Chicago Market Update
  🕐 Local 08:30 | Forecast High:38°F
  ═══════════════════════
  
  ✈️ Airport Obs (KORD):
     🌡️ 32.0°F | Wind:12kt
     🕐 Observed: 14:00 UTC
  
  ⚡ 40-41°F (2026-02-07): Buy No 87¢ | Prediction:38°F [🛒 $10.0 🔥High Conf]
  
  💡 Strategy Tips:
  • Predicted temp 38.0°F falls within 40-41°F range, market aligns with model
  

2. ✈️ METAR Aviation Weather Data

For same-day settlement markets, the system fetches METAR airport observation data and displays real measurements:

✈️ Airport Obs (KORD):
   🌡️ 12.0°F | Wind:15kt
   🕐 Observed: 11:00 UTC

ICAO Airport Code Mapping:

City	ICAO	Airport
Seattle	KSEA	Seattle-Tacoma International
London	EGLC	London City Airport
Dallas	KDAL	Dallas Love Field
Miami	KMIA	Miami International
Atlanta	KATL	Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta
Chicago	KORD	O'Hare International
New York	KLGA	LaGuardia Airport
Seoul	RKSI	Incheon International
Ankara	LTAC	Esenboga Airport
Toronto	CYYZ	Pearson International
Wellington	NZWN	Wellington International
Buenos Aires	SAEZ	Ministro Pistarini

Data Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center (Free API, no key required)

3. ⚡ Price Alerts (Auto Paper Trade)

• Trigger: Buy Yes or Buy No price enters the 85¢-95¢ range.
• Auto Action: System executes a $3-$10 Paper Trade based on the dynamic position strategy.
• Purpose: High-probability / Near-settlement reminders.

4. 👀 Market Anomalies

• Whale Inflow: Large single trades (>$5,000) with imbalanced ratios.
• Volume Spikes: Sudden increase in volume (>2x historical std dev).

5. 📅 Daily PnL Summary

• Trigger: Triggered automatically around 23:55 (Beijing Time).
• Content: Summarizes daily floating PnL, balance changes, and win rate.

6. 🎯 Trading Signals (/signal)

Prioritizes markets with the earliest settlement date, sorted by opportunity value, returns Top 5:

🎯 Upcoming Settlement (2026-02-06)
43 active options

🔥 1. Dallas 76-77°F
   💡 Prediction 80.7° above 77° → Buy NO ✓
   📊 Buy No 94¢ | ⏳Near Lock

🔥 2. Atlanta 56-57°F
   💡 Prediction 60.4° above 57° → Buy NO ✓
   📊 Buy No 94¢ | ⏳Near Lock

Lock Status:

• 🔒Locked: Price ≥95¢
• ⏳Near Lock: Price 85-94¢
• 👀Watch: Price 70-84¢
• ⚖️Balanced: Price <70¢

---

📊 Paper Trading Report Format

Accessible via /portfolio. Reports are grouped by Target Settlement Date:

📊 Paper Trading Report
════════════════════

📈 【2026-02-06】 Subtotal: +2.45$
──────────────────
🟢 Chicago 40-41°F
   NO 87¢→92¢ Pred:38 | +0.47$
🟢 Chicago 32-33°F
   NO 94¢→98¢ Pred:38 | +0.12$

💰 Total Exposure PnL: +6.89$

📈 Historical Stats:
Trades: 18 | Win Rate: 100.0%
Total Cost: $90.00 | Total PnL: +12.50$ (+13.9%)

════════════════════
💳 Account Balance: $639.11

---

🛠️ Configuration (.env)

# Telegram Bot
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=your_bot_token
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=your_chat_id

# Polymarket API (Used for real-time prices & trade history)
POLYMARKET_API_KEY=your_api_key_here

# Proxy (Optional, remove for VPS deployment)
HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890
HTTP_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890

🏗️ Project Architecture

This project is built on py-clob-client with REST API fallback:

• Primary: Uses py-clob-client SDK for market data, orderbook, and trading
• Fallback: Direct REST API calls (/price, /book) when SDK fails
• Core API wrapper: src/data_collection/polymarket_api.py

Price Fetching

# SDK method (primary)
price = clob_client.get_price(token_id, side="BUY")

# REST API fallback (when SDK fails)
resp = requests.get("https://clob.polymarket.com/price", params={
    "token_id": token_id,
    "side": "BUY"
})

📂 Data Files

File	Description
data/paper_positions.json	Paper trading positions, balance, trade history
data/pushed_signals.json	Pushed signals record (anti-spam)
data/active_signals.json	Currently active trading signals
data/all_markets.json	Full market cache
data/price_history.json	Price history for trend calculation

---

📋 Core Features

• ✅ Smart Dynamic Positions: Automatic adjustment ($3-$10) based on weather forecasts, volume, and locking degree.
• ✅ Predicted Temp Tracking: Records the Open-Meteo forecast at the time of purchase for retrospective analysis.
• ✅ Smart Merged Push: City-based alert aggregation for a clean interface.
• ✅ Auto Paper Trading: Built-in system for tracking performance within the 85-95¢ range.
• ✅ High-Speed Price Sync: Utilizes CLOB batch API for instant price updates without 404s.
• ✅ Timezone Adaptation: All timestamps are automatically adjusted to Beijing Time (UTC+8).
• ✅ Smart Date Selection: Automatically targets the earliest active market date.
• ✅ Unit Sensitivity: US markets use Fahrenheit (°F), others use Celsius (°C).
• ✅ Data Persistence: Local JSON storage ensures consistency after restarts.

---

🔄 VPS Update Instructions

# 1. Local update
git add . && git commit -m "update" && git push

# 2. VPS pull & restart
ssh root@VPS_IP "cd ~/PolyWeather && git pull && screen -S polyweather -X quit; screen -dmS polyweather python run.py"