Monitoring Engine: Scans markets 24/7, providing 85¢-95¢ Price Alerts and Market Anomalies.
Command Listener: Handles Telegram commands and returns real-time signals.

🤖 Telegram Bot Commands

Command	Description	Usage
`/signal`	Get Trading Signals	Returns Top 5 markets with earliest settlement
`/portfolio`	View Portfolio	Get real-time paper trading profit report
`/status`	Check Status	Confirm if the monitoring engine is online
`/help`	Help	Display all available commands

🎯 Smart Dynamic Position Strategy

The system automatically decides the position size based on Open-Meteo Weather Forecasts, Volume, and Price Locking Degree:

Condition Combination	Size	Tag	Description
Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support + High Volume	$10	🔥High Confidence	Triple confirmation, Heavy stake
Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support	$7	⭐Mid Confidence	Double confirmation
Price ≥92¢	$5	📌Price Locked	Pure price locking
Other 85-91¢	$3	💡Probe	Minimum stake for probing

Weather Support Logic

Buy NO: Open-Meteo predicted temperature is outside the option range (with ±2° tolerance).
Buy YES: Open-Meteo predicted temperature falls within the option range.

Volume Detection

High Volume: Individual option volume ≥ $5,000.

📢 Alerting Dimensions

1. 📂 City Alert Summaries (Push)

Optimization: All anomalies for the same city are merged into a single report per scan cycle to prevent spamming.

Push Format:

⚡ 40-41°F (2026-02-06): Buy No 87¢ | Prediction:38°F [🛒 $10.0 🔥High Conf]

2. ⚡ Price Alerts (Auto Paper Trade)

Trigger: Buy Yes or Buy No price enters the 85¢-95¢ range.
Auto Action: System executes a $3-$10 Paper Trade based on the dynamic position strategy.
Purpose: High-probability / Near-settlement reminders.

3. 👀 Market Anomalies

Whale Inflow: Large single trades (>$5,000) with imbalanced ratios.
Volume Spikes: Sudden increase in volume (>2x historical std dev).

4. 📅 Daily PnL Summary

Trigger: Triggered automatically around 23:55 (Beijing Time).
Content: Summarizes daily floating PnL, balance changes, and win rate.

5. 🎯 Trading Signals (`/signal`)

Prioritizes markets with the earliest settlement date, sorted by opportunity value, returns Top 5:

🎯 Upcoming Settlement (2026-02-06)
43 active options

🔥 1. Dallas 76-77°F
   💡 Prediction 80.7° above 77° → Buy NO ✓
   📊 Buy No 94¢ | ⏳Near Lock

🔥 2. Atlanta 56-57°F
   💡 Prediction 60.4° above 57° → Buy NO ✓
   📊 Buy No 94¢ | ⏳Near Lock

Lock Status:

🔒Locked: Price ≥95¢
⏳Near Lock: Price 85-94¢
👀Watch: Price 70-84¢
⚖️Balanced: Price <70¢

📊 Paper Trading Report Format

Accessible via /portfolio. Reports are grouped by Target Settlement Date:

📊 Paper Trading Report
════════════════════

📈 【2026-02-06】 Subtotal: +2.45$
──────────────────
🟢 Chicago 40-41°F
   NO 87¢→92¢ Pred:38 | +0.47$
🟢 Chicago 32-33°F
   NO 94¢→98¢ Pred:38 | +0.12$

💰 Total Exposure PnL: +6.89$

📈 Historical Stats:
Trades: 18 | Win Rate: 100.0%
Total Cost: $90.00 | Total PnL: +12.50$ (+13.9%)

════════════════════
💳 Account Balance: $639.11

🛠️ Configuration (.env)

# Telegram Bot
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=your_bot_token
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=your_chat_id

# Polymarket API (Used for real-time prices & trade history)
POLYMARKET_API_KEY=your_api_key_here

# Proxy (Optional, remove for VPS deployment)
HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890
HTTP_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890

📋 Core Features

✅ Smart Dynamic Positions: Automatic adjustment ($3-$10) based on weather forecasts, volume, and locking degree.
✅ Predicted Temp Tracking: Records the Open-Meteo forecast at the time of purchase for retrospective analysis.
✅ Smart Merged Push: City-based alert aggregation for a clean interface.
✅ Auto Paper Trading: Built-in system for tracking performance within the 85-95¢ range.
✅ High-Speed Price Sync: Utilizes CLOB batch API for instant price updates without 404s.
✅ Timezone Adaptation: All timestamps are automatically adjusted to Beijing Time (UTC+8).
✅ Smart Date Selection: Automatically targets the earliest active market date.
✅ Unit Sensitivity: US markets use Fahrenheit (°F), others use Celsius (°C).
✅ Data Persistence: Local JSON storage ensures consistency after restarts.

🔄 VPS Update Instructions

# 1. Local update
git add . && git commit -m "update" && git push

# 2. VPS pull & restart
ssh root@VPS_IP "cd ~/PolyWeather && git pull && screen -S polyweather -X quit; screen -dmS polyweather python run.py"

Languages

Python 56.8%

TypeScript 37%

CSS 4.1%

JavaScript 1%

PLpgSQL 0.4%

Other 0.6%

README_EN.md

🌡️ PolyWeather: Polymarket Weather Trading Monitor

🚀 Quick Start