🌡️ PolyWeather: Polymarket Weather Trading Monitor

An intelligent monitoring and alerting system based on multi-source real-time meteorological data and Polymarket market pricing deviation analysis.

🚀 Quick Start

python run.py

This command launches:

1. Monitoring Engine: Scans markets 24/7, providing 85¢-95¢ Price Alerts and Market Anomalies.
2. Command Listener: Handles Telegram commands and returns real-time signals.

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🤖 Telegram Bot Commands

Command	Description	Usage
/signal	Get Trading Signals	Returns top 3 markets with highest deviation
/portfolio	View Portfolio	Get real-time paper trading profit report
/status	Check Status	Confirm if the monitoring engine is online
/help	Help	Display all available commands

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📢 Alerting Dimensions

1. 📂 City Alert Summaries (Push)

• Optimization: All anomalies for the same city are merged into a single report per scan cycle to prevent spamming.
• Content: Includes Price Alerts and Market Anomalies (Whales/Volume).

2. ⚡ Price Alerts (Auto Paper Trade)

• Trigger: Buy Yes or Buy No price enters the 85¢-95¢ range.
• Auto Action: System automatically executes a $5.00 Paper Trade to track success rate.
• Purpose: High-probability / Near-settlement reminders.

3. 👀 Market Anomalies

• Whale Inflow: Large single trades (>$5,000) with imbalanced ratios.
• Volume Spikes: Sudden increase in volume (>2x historical std dev).

4. 📅 Daily PnL Summary

• Trigger: Triggered automatically around 23:55 (Beijing Time).
• Content: Summarizes daily floating PnL, balance changes, and win rate.

4. 🎯 Trading Signals (Query)

• Comparison between weather forecasts and market pricing.
• Includes: City, bucket, local time, expected temperature (unit-aware), and deviation score.

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🛠️ Configuration (.env)

Duplicate .env.example to .env and fill in your credentials:

# Telegram Bot
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=your_bot_token
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=your_chat_id

# Polymarket API (Used for real-time prices & trade history)
POLYMARKET_API_KEY=your_api_key_here

# Proxy (Optional)
HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890

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📋 Core Features

• ✅ Smart Merged Push: City-based alert aggregation for a clean interface.
• ✅ High-Speed Price Sync: Utilizes CLOB batch API for instant price updates without 404s.
• ✅ Timezone Adaptation: All timestamps are automatically adjusted to Beijing Time (UTC+8).
• ✅ Smart Date Selection: Automatically targets the earliest active market date and rolls over after settlement.
• ✅ Unit Sensitivity: US markets display Fahrenheit (°F), while others use Celsius (°C).
• ✅ Data Persistence: Local JSON storage for signals and push history to ensure no duplicates after restart.

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