🌡️ PolyWeather Pro

Professional Weather Intelligence System —— Specialized in edge data collection, DEB smart blending, and real-time decision alerts.

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💎 Project Vision

PolyWeather is a specialized intelligence system built for Polymarket high-stakes participants. We don't just provide weather forecasts; we aggregate data from top-tier global meteorological sources, apply our proprietary DEB (Dynamic Error Balancing) algorithm, and deliver market-shifting alerts at critical decision nodes.

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🏗️ Production Architecture

This project utilizes a production-grade decoupled architecture for high availability:

• Frontend: A Next.js interactive dashboard deployed on Vercel.
• Backend API: A FastAPI service running on a VPS, providing low-latency data access.
• Bot & Alert Heartbeat: A Telegram Bot running on a VPS, executing minute-level global scans and push notifications.

🔗 Official Visit: polyweather-pro.vercel.app

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🖼️ Preview & Interaction

📊 Deep Query View: DEB Blended Forecast + Settlement Probability + Groq AI Expert Advice

🗺️ Omni-Dashboard: Real-time global heatmaps + array-style data visualization

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🚀 Core Features

• 📡 Full-Spectrum Collection
  • Major Models: Real-time sync for ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM, JMA, and Open-Meteo daily/hourly guidance.
  • Observed Data: Aviation Weather / METAR as the primary observation source, plus official Turkish MGM station-level data for Ankara.
  • City Specialization: Integrated 17130 (Ankara (Bölge/Center)) as the key Ankara lead station, without replacing LTAC settlement observation.
• ⚖️ DEB Smart Blending
  • Dynamic weighting of forecasts based on recent historical performance and city-specific reliability.
• 🔔 Alert Engine
  • Momentum Spike: Captures rapid temperature changes within 30 minutes.
  • Forecast Breakthrough: Fires when observations exceed all model predictions plus a safety margin.
  • Advection Monitoring: Simulates warm/cold advection based on lead stations and wind currents.
• 🛡️ Smart Suppression
  • Peak Protection: Automatically switches to snapshot mode when the daily high has likely passed.
  • Cooldown Management: Global and city-level cooldowns to prevent notification fatigue.

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🔐 Alert Logic Details

Trigger Name	Core Logic	Trading Value
Center Hit	Detects DEB trigger only at Ankara HQ 17130	Highest priority signal, the "truth"
Momentum	30min temperature slope exceed threshold	Captures sudden weather fronts
Breakthrough	Pierces all model highs + margin	Captures high-volatility outlier events
Advection	Lead station rise + Wind match	Gain 20-40 minutes of lead time for execution

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🧭 Current Data Logic

• Primary observation source: Aviation Weather / METAR
• Ankara enhancement:
  • Settlement observation: LTAC / Esenboğa
  • Official lead station: Ankara (Bölge/Center) / 17130
  • Nearby station layer: Turkish MGM station network
• Other cities nearby layer:
  • Current production logic uses Aviation Weather METAR clusters
  • U.S. cities may later receive Mesonet augmentation, but METAR remains the base layer
• Historical benchmarking rules:
  • Web dashboard: rolling last 15 settled days
  • Telegram /deb: rolling last 7 settled days
  • The current in-progress day is excluded from win rate and MAE

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🏗️ System Architecture

graph TD
    subgraph "Client / Terminals"
        Web[Next.js Web App]
        TG[Telegram Client]
    end

    subgraph "Edge Deployment (Vercel)"
        Web -.-> |Auth| Supa[(Supabase Auth/DB)]
        Web --> |API| Fast[FastAPI API]
    end

    subgraph "Core Hub (VPS)"
        Fast --- |Shared Logic| Worker[Alert Engine / Worker]
        Bot[Telegram Bot] --- |Shared Logic| Worker
        Worker --> |Cache/Sub| Supa
    end

    subgraph "External Sources"
        Worker --> |Pull| MGM[MGM Weather]
        Worker --> |Pull| METAR[Airport METAR]
        Worker --> |Pull| OM[Open-Meteo]
        Worker --> |Pull| MM[Multi-Model Integration]
    end

    Worker --> |Push Alert| TG
    Bot --> |Query| Worker

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🛠️ Deployment

1. Backend / Bot (VPS)

# Pull Source
git pull

# Environment
# Edit .env with TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN and other keys

# Launch
docker-compose up -d --build

2. Frontend (Vercel)

Associate the frontend directory as the project root on Vercel for automatic CI/CD.

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💬 Bot Commands

Command	Description	Example
/city	Query real-time analysis for a city	/city ankara
/deb	View historical accuracy of DEB model	/deb london
/top	View activity leaderboard	/top
/help	Get detailed instructions	/help

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Note

Commercialization: This project currently offers Web Dashboard ($5/mo) and Telegram Signal Channel ($1/mo) subscriptions. Point-earning via group participation is active and points can be redeemed for access.

Note

Frontend Model: The production website still uses the legacy high-density dashboard shell under frontend/public/legacy/index.html, embedded through the Next.js app shell.

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📅 Last Updated: 2026-03-09 🚀 Status: v1.0 Stable - Professional Quant UI Locked

Tip

Production Note: The current dashboard utilizes the high-density "Professional Quant" UI (v1.0-legacy) which integrates real-time METAR/MGM data, DEB ensemble blending, and multi-model probability distribution in a single high-performance view.