2569718930@qq.com
120 lines
4.5 KiB
Markdown
120 lines
4.5 KiB
Markdown
# 🌡️ PolyWeather: Intelligent Weather Quant Analysis Bot
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PolyWeather is a weather analysis tool specifically designed for prediction markets like **Polymarket**. It aggregates multi-source forecasts, real-time airport METAR observations, and incorporates AI-driven decision support to help users evaluate weather-related risks more scientifically.
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---
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## ✨ Core Features
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### 1. 🧬 Dynamic Ensemble Blending (DEB Algorithm)
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The system automatically tracks the historical performance of various weather models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM, JMA) in specific cities:
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- **Error-Based Weighting**: Dynamically adjusts weights for each model based on their Mean Absolute Error (MAE) over the past 7 days.
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- **Blended Forecast**: Provides a "Blended High Temperature" recommendation corrected for historical biases.
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- **Concurrency Optimization**: Built-in singleton cache and file locking mechanism to support high-concurrency queries and ensure data safety.
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### 2. 🤖 AI Intelligent Analysis (Groq LLaMA 3.3)
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Integrates the LLaMA 70B model to interpret rapidly changing meteorological data:
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- **Logical Deduction**: Considers dynamic factors such as wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, and solar radiation to judge temperature trends.
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- **Confidence Scoring**: Provides a confidence score from 1-10 for the current market conditions.
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- **Automatic Cooldown Determination**: When temperature drop is observed or the forecast peak has passed, the AI provides a definitive market conclusion.
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### 3. ⏱️ Real-time Airport Observations (Zero-Cache METAR)
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- **Live Passthrough**: Bypasses CDN caching via dynamic headers to obtain first-hand METAR reports from airports.
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- **Settlement Warning**: Automatically calculates the Wunderground settlement boundary (X.5 rounding line) to warn of potential volatility.
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### 4. 📈 Historical Data Collection
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- Includes `fetch_history.py` to retrieve up to 3 years of hourly historical weather data for any city, supporting future algorithm development.
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---
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## ⚡ Deployment
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### Requirements
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- **Python 3.11+**
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- Install dependencies: `pip install -r requirements.txt`
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- **Environment Variables**: Set `TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN` and `GROQ_API_KEY` in your `.env` file.
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### VPS Quick Deployment
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1. Clone the repository and install dependencies.
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2. Configure your `.env` file.
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3. Use the following script for one-click updates and restarts:
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```bash
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cat > ~/update.sh << 'EOF'
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#!/bin/bash
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cd ~/PolyWeather
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git fetch origin
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git reset --hard origin/main
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pkill -f bot_listener.py
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sleep 1
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nohup python3 bot_listener.py > bot.log 2>&1 &
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echo "✅ PolyWeather Restarted!"
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EOF
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chmod +x ~/update.sh
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```
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---
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## 🕹️ Bot Commands
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| Command | Description |
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| :------------------ | :-------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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| `/city [city_name]` | Get in-depth weather analysis, live tracking, and AI-driven insights. |
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| `/id` | View the Chat ID of the current conversation. |
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| `/help` | Display help information. |
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### Supported City Examples
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`lon` (London), `par` (Paris), `ank` (Ankara), `nyc` (New York), `chi` (Chicago), `ba` (Buenos Aires), etc.
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---
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## 🏗️ Architecture
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```mermaid
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graph TD
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User[User / Signal Receiver] -->|Query Command| Bot[bot_listener.py Core Scheduler]
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subgraph Data Acquisition
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Bot --> Collector[WeatherDataCollector]
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Collector --> OM[Open-Meteo Live/Forecast]
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Collector --> MM[Multi-Model Predictors ECMWF/GFS etc.]
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Collector --> METAR[Live Airport Observations]
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end
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subgraph Logic Processing
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Collector --> DEB[DEB Dynamic Weighting]
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DEB --> DB[(daily_records JSON Database)]
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Collector --> Logic[Settlement Analysis / Trend Detection]
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end
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subgraph AI Decision Layer
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DEB --> AIAnalyzer[Groq/LLaMA 3.3 AI Model]
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Logic --> AIAnalyzer
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METAR --> AIAnalyzer
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end
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AIAnalyzer -->|Generates: Spread+Logic+Confidence| Bot
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Bot -->|Returns Analysis Snapshot| User
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```
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---
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## 💡 Trading Tips
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1. **Reference DEB Blended Value**: When models diverge, the DEB corrected value is usually more reliable than a single forecast.
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2. **Observe AI Confidence**: A confidence score below 5 indicates high uncertainty in the current meteorological environment.
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3. **Watch Settlement Boundaries**: When the observed high is near X.5, be wary of rounding jumps during Wunderground settlements.
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---
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_Updated 2026_
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