PolyWeather Pro

Production weather-intelligence stack for temperature settlement markets.

Official dashboard: polyweather-pro.vercel.app 中文说明: README_ZH.md

Public docs center: /docs/intro on the main site (bilingual product documentation, including intraday analysis, calibrated probability, model stack, TAF, settlement sources, history, and extension).

Product Screenshots

Global Dashboard

City Analysis (Ankara)

Star History

Product Status (2026-04-27)

• Subscription live: Pro Monthly 5 USDC.
• Points redemption live: 500 points = 1 USDC, max 3 USDC off.
• Onchain checkout live: Polygon contract checkout (USDC / USDC.e).
• Auto-reconciliation live: event listener + periodic confirm loop.
• Ops dashboard live: /ops for memberships, leaderboard, manual point grants, and payment incident triage.
• Lightweight observability live: /healthz, /api/system/status, /metrics.
• Runtime state, cache, and core offline training/backfill flows now use SQLite as the primary path; legacy JSON/JSONL files remain only for migration, export, and explicit fallback input.
• EMOS/CRPS calibration is wired and trainable, but production should stay on legacy or emos_shadow; emos_primary is only for candidates that pass local offline evaluation and manual rollout.
• Intraday analysis is now positioned as a professional meteorology read: headline, confidence, base/upside/downside paths, next observation point, evidence chain, failure modes, and confirmation rules.
• Intraday modal now blocks stale cached detail during refresh, so users do not briefly trade off old city/date data before full detail arrives.
• City decision cards now include the AI airport read: METAR, DEB, model cluster, and the AI expected-high center are resolved before mapping the result to Polymarket temperature buckets.
• AI airport reads now use in-page memory cache, browser localStorage, and backend short-TTL cache; returning from another dashboard tab restores existing stream text or final results before any new request is needed.
• Market bucket matching now uses the full all_buckets surface and strict exact / range / or-higher / or-lower direction checks, reducing bad matches to unreasonable tail buckets.
• The card label “model-market difference” means model probability - market-implied probability; positive values indicate weather probability above market pricing, while negative values indicate the YES is already priced more fully.
• Calibrated model probability is now the primary probability panel. It shows the active production probability engine; EMOS/LGBM are surfaced only when evaluated or shadowed, while model consensus and market prices remain secondary references.
• Non-Hong Kong airport cities now ingest TAF and parse FM / TEMPO / BECMG / PROB30/40.
• Temperature chart now overlays TAF Timing markers near the expected peak window.
• Trade cue now combines upper-air structure, TAF, market crowding, and edge_percent.
• Browser extension now uses DEB for multi-day forecast and stays positioned as a lightweight lead-in to the main site.
• Official nearby-network layer now covers MGM (Turkey), CMA/NMC (Mainland China), JMA AMeDAS (Japan), KMA (Korea), HKO (Hong Kong), and CWA (Taiwan).
• Tokyo now ingests Haneda JMA AMeDAS 10-minute temperature as the official enhancement layer.
• Dashboard prewarm is now supported through a dedicated worker / cron path, with runtime status exposed in /api/system/status and /ops.
• /ops now exposes cache bucket counts, summary cache hit / miss rate, and prewarm runtime heartbeat.
• Intraday commentary can optionally use Groq as a bilingual rewrite layer, while rule-based commentary remains the fallback.
• Vercel frontend guidance now includes cost controls for analytics, eager fetches, and edge-side scanner blocking.
• Frontend design system overhauled: unified CSS token system, eliminated !important abuse (68→6 in light theme), consolidated breakpoints (18→10), migrated hardcoded colors to CSS variables, added ARIA attributes and focus-visible keyboard navigation. See docs/frontend-ui-design-review.md for the full audit trail.

License & Commercial Boundary

This repository is licensed under GNU AGPL-3.0 only from 2026-03-30 onward.

• Public in repo: weather aggregation, core analysis, dashboard, bot baseline, and standard payment flow.
• Not included in this repository: private production data, internal operating thresholds, commercial risk rules, pricing strategy details, and growth tooling.
• Trademark, brand, domain, production databases, and hosted-service operations are not granted by the code license.

See: AGPL-3.0 & Commercial Boundary

Core Capabilities

• Aggregates observations and forecasts for 52 monitored cities.
• Uses DEB (Dynamic Error Balancing) to blend multi-model highs.
• Generates settlement-oriented calibrated probability buckets (mu + bucket distribution), with LGBM metadata surfaced when the calibrated engine is active.
• Maps weather view to Polymarket quotes for mispricing scan.
• Adds city decision cards that combine AI airport reads, expected-high centers, full market-bucket mapping, and model-market difference in one view.
• Reuses one analysis core across web dashboard and Telegram bot.
• Adds payment audit trails, replay tooling, and incident visibility in ops.
• Adds peak-window-oriented intraday analysis with meteorology headline, path buckets, evidence chain, invalidation rules, and confirmation rules.
• Adds airport-side TAF timing overlays and airport suppression/disruption interpretation for non-Hong Kong airport cities.
• Adds official nearby-network enhancement layers for China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Turkey without replacing airport settlement anchors.
• Adds optional dashboard prewarm worker so hot cities can be refreshed before user clicks.

Reference Architecture

flowchart LR
    U["Users (Web / Telegram)"] --> FE["Next.js Frontend (Vercel)"]
    U --> BOT["Telegram Bot (VPS)"]
    FE --> API["FastAPI /web/app.py"]
    BOT --> API

    API --> WX["Weather Collector"]
    WX --> METAR["Aviation Weather (METAR)"]
    WX --> TAF["Aviation Weather (TAF)"]
    WX --> MGM["MGM (Turkey station network)"]
    WX --> OM["Open-Meteo"]
    WX --> JMA["JMA AMeDAS (Japan)"]
    WX --> KMA["KMA (Korea)"]
    WX --> HKO["HKO / CWA / NOAA / Official settlement sources"]

    API --> ANA["DEB + Trend + Probability + Market Scan"]
    ANA --> PAY["Payment State (Intent + Event + Confirm Loop)"]
    ANA --> PM["Polymarket Read-only Layer"]
    ANA --> LLM["Optional Groq Commentary Rewrite"]
    API --> PREWARM["Dashboard Prewarm API / Worker"]

Monitored Cities (52)

• Europe / Middle East / Africa: Ankara, Istanbul, Moscow, London, Paris, Munich, Milan, Warsaw, Madrid, Tel Aviv, Amsterdam, Helsinki, Lagos, Cape Town, Jeddah
• APAC: Seoul, Busan, Hong Kong, Lau Fau Shan, Taipei, Shanghai, Beijing, Qingdao, Wuhan, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Singapore, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Manila, Wellington
• Americas: Toronto, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Aurora, Austin, Houston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Panama City
• South Asia: Lucknow, Karachi, Masroor Air Base

Quick Start

Backend + Bot (Docker)

docker compose up -d --build

Frontend (local)

cd frontend
npm ci
npm run dev

Recent Highlights

• Airport-linked contracts use the METAR / airport primary observing site as the settlement anchor. Wunderground pages are reference/history pages, not stations.
• Taipei and Shenzhen retain their explicitly configured station history pages for reconciliation, but the docs avoid describing Wunderground itself as a physical station.
• Hong Kong keeps HKO official readings in dashboard and history, without falling back to airport METAR lines.
• Intraday analysis now separates meteorology conclusion, evidence chain, invalidation rules, confirmation rules, calibrated probability, and market reference.
• TAF is used as an airport-side confirmation layer, not as the main temperature model.
• LGBM can power the calibrated probability panel; model vote counts remain an explanatory consensus line, not the final probability.
• Browser extension remains a lightweight monitoring + basic-bias product, while the site holds the full analysis experience.

Runtime Data (Recommended on VPS)

Use external runtime storage to avoid SQLite/git conflicts:

POLYWEATHER_RUNTIME_DATA_DIR=/var/lib/polyweather
POLYWEATHER_DB_PATH=/var/lib/polyweather/polyweather.db
POLYWEATHER_STATE_STORAGE_MODE=sqlite

EMOS Local Training

Do not run full EMOS retraining on a small VPS. The VPS should collect data and load approved calibration files; training should run on a local/dev machine using a copied production SQLite database:

scp root@38.54.27.70:/var/lib/polyweather/polyweather.db E:\web\PolyWeather\data\polyweather-prod.db
$env:POLYWEATHER_DB_PATH="E:\web\PolyWeather\data\polyweather-prod.db"
$env:POLYWEATHER_RUNTIME_DATA_DIR="E:\web\PolyWeather\artifacts\local_runtime"
python scripts\auto_retrain_probability_calibration.py --verbose --snapshot-limit 50000

Promote a generated default.json only when auto_retrain_report.json has ready_for_promotion=true, and prefer emos_shadow before enabling emos_primary.

Ops Verification

Health / system status / metrics

curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/healthz
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/system/status
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/metrics

Dashboard prewarm worker

docker compose --profile workers up -d polyweather_prewarm
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/system/status

Check:

• prewarm.thread_alive
• prewarm.runtime.cycle_count
• cache.analysis.hit_rate
• cache.open_meteo_forecast_entries

Frontend cache headers

./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app"

Payment auto-reconciliation logs

docker compose logs -f polyweather | egrep "payment event loop started|payment confirm loop started|payment auto-confirmed"

Payment runtime

curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/payments/runtime

Wallet activity logs

docker compose logs -f polyweather | egrep "polymarket wallet activity watcher started|wallet activity pushed"

Telegram Commands

Command	Purpose
/city <name>	City real-time analysis
/deb <name>	DEB historical reconciliation
/top	User leaderboard
/id	Show current chat ID
/diag	Startup diagnostics
/help	Help and usage

Documentation Index

• Chinese overview: README_ZH.md
• Chinese API guide: docs/API_ZH.md
• TAF signal guide (ZH): docs/TAF_SIGNAL_ZH.md
• Model stack & DEB (ZH): docs/MODEL_STACK_AND_DEB_ZH.md
• EMOS + LGBM system (ZH): docs/EMOS_LGBM_SYSTEM_ZH.md
• Commercialization: docs/COMMERCIALIZATION.md
• AGPL-3.0 policy: docs/OPEN_CORE_POLICY.md
• Supabase setup (ZH): docs/SUPABASE_SETUP_ZH.md
• Configuration & secrets (ZH): docs/CONFIGURATION_ZH.md
• LightGBM daily-high model (ZH): docs/LGBM_DAILY_HIGH_ZH.md
• Frontend deployment (ZH): docs/FRONTEND_DEPLOYMENT_ZH.md
• Tech debt (EN): docs/TECH_DEBT.md
• Tech debt (ZH): docs/TECH_DEBT_ZH.md
• Payment verification: docs/payments/POLYGONSCAN_VERIFY.md
• Payment audit: docs/payments/PAYMENT_AUDIT_ZH.md
• Payment V2 upgrade: docs/payments/PAYMENT_UPGRADE_V2_ZH.md
• Ops admin guide: docs/OPS_ADMIN_ZH.md
• Monitoring guide (ZH): docs/MONITORING_ZH.md
• Deep research report: docs/deep-research-report.md
• Frontend report: FRONTEND_REDESIGN_REPORT.md
• Release process: RELEASE.md
• Changelog: CHANGELOG.md

Version

• Version: v1.5.4
• Last Updated: 2026-04-19