PolyWeather is a specialized intelligence system built for Polymarket high-stakes participants. We don't just provide weather forecasts; we aggregate data from top-tier global meteorological sources, apply our proprietary DEB (Dynamic Error Balancing) algorithm, and deliver market-shifting alerts at critical decision nodes.

🏗️ Production Architecture

This project utilizes a production-grade decoupled architecture for high availability:

Frontend: A Next.js interactive dashboard deployed on Vercel.
Backend API: A FastAPI service running on a VPS, providing low-latency data access.
Bot & Alert Heartbeat: A Telegram Bot running on a VPS, executing minute-level global scans and push notifications.

🔗 Official Visit: polyweather-pro.vercel.app

🖼️ Preview & Interaction

📊 Deep Query View: DEB Blended Forecast + Settlement Probability + Groq AI Expert Advice

🗺️ Omni-Dashboard: Real-time global heatmaps + array-style data visualization

🚀 Core Features

📡 Full-Spectrum Collection
- Major Models: Real-time sync for ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM, and JMA high temperatures.
- Observed Data: Global airport METAR reports + official Turkish MGM station-level data.
- Centralized Correction: Integrated 17130 (Center) official data specifically for Ankara.
⚖️ DEB Smart Blending
- Dynamic weighting of forecasts based on recent 7-day historical performance.
🔔 Alert Engine
- Momentum Spike: Captures rapid temperature changes within 30 minutes.
- Forecast Breakthrough: Fires when observations exceed all model predictions plus a safety margin.
- Advection Monitoring: Simulates warm/cold advection based on lead stations and wind currents.
🛡️ Smart Suppression
- Peak Protection: Automatically switches to snapshot mode when the daily high has likely passed.
- Cooldown Management: Global and city-level cooldowns to prevent notification fatigue.

🔐 Alert Logic Details

Trigger Name	Core Logic	Trading Value
Center Hit	Detects DEB trigger only at Ankara HQ `17130`	Highest priority signal, the "truth"
Momentum	30min temperature slope exceed threshold	Captures sudden weather fronts
Breakthrough	Pierces all model highs + margin	Captures high-volatility outlier events
Advection	Lead station rise + Wind match	Gain 20-40 minutes of lead time for execution

🏗️ System Architecture

graph TD
    subgraph "Client / Terminals"
        Web[Next.js Web App]
        TG[Telegram Client]
    end

    subgraph "Edge Deployment (Vercel)"
        Web -.-> |Auth| Supa[(Supabase Auth/DB)]
        Web --> |API| Fast[FastAPI API]
    end

    subgraph "Core Hub (VPS)"
        Fast --- |Shared Logic| Worker[Alert Engine / Worker]
        Bot[Telegram Bot] --- |Shared Logic| Worker
        Worker --> |Cache/Sub| Supa
    end

    subgraph "External Sources"
        Worker --> |Pull| MGM[MGM Weather]
        Worker --> |Pull| METAR[Airport METAR]
        Worker --> |Pull| OM[Open-Meteo]
        Worker --> |Pull| MM[Multi-Model Integration]
    end

    Worker --> |Push Alert| TG
    Bot --> |Query| Worker

🛠️ Deployment

1. Backend / Bot (VPS)

# Pull Source
git pull

# Environment
# Edit .env with TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN and other keys

# Launch
docker-compose up -d --build

2. Frontend (Vercel)

Associate the frontend directory as the project root on Vercel for automatic CI/CD.

💬 Bot Commands

Command	Description	Example
`/city`	Query real-time analysis for a city	`/city ankara`
`/deb`	View historical accuracy of DEB model	`/deb london`
`/points`	View your activity points & leaderboard	`/points`
`/help`	Get detailed instructions	`/help`

Note

Commercialization: This project currently offers Web Dashboard ($5/mo) and Telegram Signal Channel ($1/mo) subscriptions. Point-earning via group participation is active and points can be redeemed for access.

📅 Last Updated: 2026-03-06

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JavaScript 1%

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Other 0.6%