2569718930@qq.com🌡️ PolyWeather: Polymarket Weather Trading Monitor
An intelligent monitoring and alerting system based on multi-source real-time meteorological data and Polymarket market pricing deviation analysis.
🚀 Quick Start
python run.py
This command launches:
- Monitoring Engine: Scans markets 24/7, providing 85¢-95¢ Price Alerts and Market Anomalies.
- Command Listener: Handles Telegram commands and returns real-time signals.
🤖 Telegram Bot Commands
| Command | Description | Usage |
|---|---|---|
/signal |
Get Trading Signals | Returns top 3 markets with highest deviation |
/portfolio |
View Portfolio | Get real-time paper trading profit report |
/status |
Check Status | Confirm if the monitoring engine is online |
/help |
Help | Display all available commands |
🎯 Smart Dynamic Position Strategy
The system automatically decides the position size based on Open-Meteo Weather Forecasts, Volume, and Price Locking Degree:
| Condition Combination | Size | Tag | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support + High Volume | $10 | 🔥High Confidence | Triple confirmation, Heavy stake |
| Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support | $7 | ⭐Mid Confidence | Double confirmation |
| Price ≥92¢ | $5 | 📌Price Locked | Pure price locking |
| Other 85-91¢ | $3 | 💡Probe | Minimum stake for probing |
Weather Support Logic
- Buy NO: Open-Meteo predicted temperature is outside the option range (with ±2° tolerance).
- Buy YES: Open-Meteo predicted temperature falls within the option range.
Volume Detection
- High Volume: Individual option volume ≥ $5,000.
📢 Alerting Dimensions
1. 📂 City Alert Summaries (Push)
- Optimization: All anomalies for the same city are merged into a single report per scan cycle to prevent spamming.
- Push Format:
⚡ 40-41°F (2026-02-06): Buy No 87¢ | Prediction:38°F [🛒 $10.0 🔥High Conf]
2. ⚡ Price Alerts (Auto Paper Trade)
- Trigger: Buy Yes or Buy No price enters the 85¢-95¢ range.
- Auto Action: System executes a $3-$10 Paper Trade based on the dynamic position strategy.
- Purpose: High-probability / Near-settlement reminders.
3. 👀 Market Anomalies
- Whale Inflow: Large single trades (>$5,000) with imbalanced ratios.
- Volume Spikes: Sudden increase in volume (>2x historical std dev).
4. 📅 Daily PnL Summary
- Trigger: Triggered automatically around 23:55 (Beijing Time).
- Content: Summarizes daily floating PnL, balance changes, and win rate.
5. 🎯 Trading Signals (Query)
- Comparison between weather forecasts and market pricing.
- Includes: City, bucket, local time, expected temperature (unit-aware), and deviation score.
📊 Paper Trading Report Format
Accessible via /portfolio. Reports are grouped by Target Settlement Date:
📊 Paper Trading Report
════════════════════
📈 【2026-02-06】 Subtotal: +2.45$
──────────────────
🟢 Chicago 40-41°F
NO 87¢→92¢ Pred:38 | +0.47$
🟢 Chicago 32-33°F
NO 94¢→98¢ Pred:38 | +0.12$
💰 Total Exposure PnL: +6.89$
📈 Historical Stats:
Trades: 18 | Win Rate: 100.0%
Total Cost: $90.00 | Total PnL: +12.50$ (+13.9%)
════════════════════
💳 Account Balance: $639.11
🛠️ Configuration (.env)
# Telegram Bot
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=your_bot_token
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=your_chat_id
# Polymarket API (Used for real-time prices & trade history)
POLYMARKET_API_KEY=your_api_key_here
# Proxy (Optional, remove for VPS deployment)
HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890
HTTP_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890
📋 Core Features
- ✅ Smart Dynamic Positions: Automatic adjustment ($3-$10) based on weather forecasts, volume, and locking degree.
- ✅ Predicted Temp Tracking: Records the Open-Meteo forecast at the time of purchase for retrospective analysis.
- ✅ Smart Merged Push: City-based alert aggregation for a clean interface.
- ✅ Auto Paper Trading: Built-in system for tracking performance within the 85-95¢ range.
- ✅ High-Speed Price Sync: Utilizes CLOB batch API for instant price updates without 404s.
- ✅ Timezone Adaptation: All timestamps are automatically adjusted to Beijing Time (UTC+8).
- ✅ Smart Date Selection: Automatically targets the earliest active market date.
- ✅ Unit Sensitivity: US markets use Fahrenheit (°F), others use Celsius (°C).
- ✅ Data Persistence: Local JSON storage ensures consistency after restarts.
🔄 VPS Update Instructions
# 1. Local update
git add . && git commit -m "update" && git push
# 2. VPS pull & restart
ssh root@VPS_IP "cd ~/PolyWeather && git pull && screen -S polyweather -X quit; screen -dmS polyweather python run.py"