PolyWeather/docs/COMMERCIALIZATION.md

Commercialization Plan

Product Direction

PolyWeather is being positioned as a paid weather intelligence product built around:

• Web dashboard subscription
• Telegram paid group subscription
• Fast, rules-based weather alerting
• High-confidence Ankara specialization

Current pricing target:

• Web dashboard: $5 / month
• Telegram paid group: $1 / month

Current payment direction under discussion:

• Polygon / USDC

Important current state:

• Polymarket market-price integration has been removed from the codebase
• The current product focuses on weather intelligence, not exchange/orderbook execution data

Production Architecture

Web

• Next.js frontend on Vercel
• Public URL: https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/
• FastAPI backend serves API only

Backend

• FastAPI on VPS
• Shared analysis layer for web and bot
• City data cache in-process

Telegram

• Bot runs on VPS
• Paid group receives proactive alerts
• Push engine includes dedupe, cooldown, and late-day suppression

Alert Product Strategy

Current alert strategy is weather-first:

• Ankara Center reached DEB
• Momentum spike
• Forecast breakthrough
• Advection / nearby lead station

Operational controls already implemented:

• Same city + same trigger type only pushes once while active
• City-level cooldown
• Peak-passed suppression for late-day rollover

Ankara special handling:

• Center signal only uses Ankara (Bolge/Center) / 17130
• This should remain a product differentiator and be documented clearly in sales copy

Recommended Subscription Structure

Tier A: Telegram Group

• Price: $1 / month
• Value proposition:
  • Real-time proactive weather alerts
  • Fast anomaly delivery
  • Focused operational signal, minimal clutter
• Suggested restrictions:
  • No raw API access
  • No historical analytics export
  • No advanced chart controls

Tier B: Web Dashboard

• Price: $5 / month
• Value proposition:
  • Full city dashboard
  • Trend and nearby-station visualization
  • Multi-model comparison
  • Historical view
• Suggested restrictions:
  • View-only unless future premium tools are added

Bundle Option

• Optional future bundle: Web + Group
• Use only if conversion data shows users want both together

Payment Roadmap

Phase 1: Manual Ops

• User pays manually
• Operator manually activates web access / Telegram access
• Lowest engineering cost, fastest launch

Phase 2: Polygon / USDC Automation

• Generate unique deposit address or payment intent
• Confirm on-chain payment
• Activate subscription automatically
• Telegram bot issues one-time group invite link

Phase 3: Full Subscription Management

• Renewal reminders
• Grace period handling
• Automatic expiry / revocation
• Self-serve billing status page

Recommended Near-Term Roadmap

Step 1: Stabilize Current Product

• Finish cleaning docs and deployment flow
• Keep Vercel as the only web entry point
• Keep backend API-only
• Tune Telegram cooldown and trigger quality

Step 2: Launch Manual Paid Beta

• Start with a small paid Telegram group
• Start web dashboard on invite basis
• Track which alert types users actually value

Step 3: Add Access Control

• Web login and session layer
• Subscription table in backend
• Telegram membership verification

Step 4: Add Polygon / USDC Collection

• Payment detection
• Subscription activation
• One-time Telegram invite issuance

Metrics To Track

Minimum metrics before scaling:

• Alert-to-action usefulness feedback
• Daily active dashboard users
• Telegram retention after first payment cycle
• Most valuable cities by engagement
• False-positive complaint rate for alerts

Constraints To Keep In Mind

• The current system is strongest in weather intelligence, not execution plumbing
• Ankara is a differentiated niche and should be treated as premium signal inventory
• Over-pushing alerts will destroy paid-group value faster than under-pushing
• Payment automation should come after alert quality is operationally stable

Last updated: 2026-03-06