PolyWeather

PolyWeather is a weather intelligence system built around live airport observations, multi-model forecasts, DEB blending, and Telegram alert delivery.

Current production layout:

• Frontend: Next.js on Vercel
• Backend API: FastAPI on VPS
• Bot / alert loop: Telegram bot on VPS

The old FastAPI static web page has been removed. Vercel is the only web entry point.

📊 Live query: DEB Blended Forecast + Settlement Probability + Groq AI Decision

🗺️ Interactive Web Map: Real-time global monitoring with rich data visualization

Features

• Multi-source weather aggregation
  • Open-Meteo
  • METAR live observations
  • MGM official data for Ankara
  • Multi-model highs such as ECMWF / GFS / ICON / GEM / JMA when available
• DEB blended forecast
  • Dynamic weighting based on recent model error
• City dashboard
  • Global city list
  • City detail panel
  • Nearby station map markers
  • Trend chart
  • Multi-model comparison
  • Daily forecast table
• Telegram proactive alerts
  • Ankara Center reached DEB
  • Momentum spike
  • Forecast breakthrough
  • Advection / nearby lead station signal
• Late-day suppression
  • If the local daily high has likely already passed and the market is cooling off, active alerts are downgraded to status only and are not pushed

Alert Rules

Implemented rules:

• ankara_center_deb_hit
  • Only uses Ankara (Bolge/Center) station / istNo=17130
  • This is the official Ankara center station used for the Center signal
• momentum_spike
  • 30-minute slope exceeds the configured threshold
• forecast_breakthrough
  • Current observed temperature is above the highest available major model high by margin
• advection
  • Nearby station leads the airport station and wind regime supports warm advection

Suppression rule:

• peak_passed_guard
  • No active push if the city's local peak has already passed, enough time has elapsed, and the current temperature has materially rolled over from the day's high

Push dedupe rule:

• Same city + same trigger type only pushes once while still active
• It can push again only after the signal clears and re-arms
• Cooldown still applies at city level

Data Semantics

Alert message fields:

• 实测 / Now
  • Uses METAR current.temp first
  • Falls back to MGM current.temp if METAR current temperature is unavailable
• 时间 / Time
  • local: city local clock time
  • observed: observation time attached to the current reading

Deployment

Backend / bot on VPS

Requirements:

• Docker
• Docker Compose
• .env

Deploy:

git pull
docker-compose up -d --build

Main services:

• polyweather_bot
• polyweather_web

The FastAPI service is now API-only. It does not serve a static website.

Frontend on Vercel

The Vercel project uses the frontend directory as root.

After pushing to Git, Vercel deploys automatically.

Environment Variables

Minimum practical set:

TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=...
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=...
GROQ_API_KEY=...
POLYWEATHER_MAP_URL=https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/
WEB_CORS_ORIGINS=http://localhost:3000,http://127.0.0.1:3000,https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app

Push tuning:

TELEGRAM_ALERT_PUSH_ENABLED=true
TELEGRAM_ALERT_PUSH_INTERVAL_SEC=300
TELEGRAM_ALERT_PUSH_COOLDOWN_SEC=3600
TELEGRAM_ALERT_MIN_TRIGGER_COUNT=2
TELEGRAM_ALERT_MIN_SEVERITY=medium
TELEGRAM_ALERT_CITIES=ankara,london,paris,seoul,toronto,buenos aires,wellington,new york,chicago,dallas,miami,atlanta,seattle,lucknow,sao paulo,munich

Recommended:

• Use 3600 seconds cooldown for production paid groups unless you explicitly want more aggressive alerting

Bot Commands

Supported user commands:

• /city [city]
• /deb [city]
• /id
• /help

/tradealert has been removed. Alerts are proactive push only.

Architecture

graph TD
    User[Telegram User] --> Bot[bot_listener.py]
    User2[Web User] --> Vercel[Next.js on Vercel]
    Vercel --> API[FastAPI API on VPS]
    Bot --> API
    API --> Collector[WeatherDataCollector]
    Collector --> OM[Open-Meteo]
    Collector --> METAR[METAR]
    Collector --> MGM[MGM]
    Collector --> MM[Multi-model sources]
    API --> DEB[DEB blending]
    API --> Alerts[Alert engine]
    Alerts --> Bot

Testing

Quick checks used in development:

python -m py_compile src/analysis/market_alert_engine.py src/utils/telegram_push.py web/app.py bot_listener.py
node --check frontend/public/static/app.js
npm run build --prefix frontend

If you want to run pytest, install it first.

Status

Last updated: 2026-03-06