chore: release v1.3

.env.example

@@ -62,6 +62,12 @@ POLYGON_WALLET_WATCH_POLYMARKET_CONTRACTS=
 # Polymarket Wallet Activity Watcher (all markets, not weather-only)
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_ENABLED=false
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_USERS=0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000
+# Optional wallet nicknames:
+# - CSV: 0xabc...=Whale_A,0xdef...=Main_Account
+# - JSON: {"0xabc...":"Whale A","0xdef...":"Main Account"}
+# - Env key: POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_USER_ALIASES
+#   (legacy typo POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_USERS_ALIASES is also accepted)
+POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_USER_ALIASES=
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_DATA_API_URL=https://data-api.polymarket.com
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_INTERVAL_SEC=20
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_TIMEOUT_SEC=10
@@ -74,6 +80,7 @@ POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_IMMEDIATE_COOLDOWN_SEC=20
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_MAX_CHANGES_PER_MSG=5
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_NOTIFY_CLOSED=false
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_BOOTSTRAP_ALERT=false
+POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_LINK_PREVIEW=true
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_UPDATE_DEBOUNCE_SEC=30
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_UPDATE_MAX_HOLD_SEC=120
 POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_AVG_PRICE_SHOW_MIN=0.01

FRONTEND_REDESIGN_REPORT.md

@@ -0,0 +1,262 @@
+# 前端重新设计完成报告
+
+## 概述
+
+按照 `docs/images/demo_map.png` 的设计，已成功重新设计和实现了 PolyWeather 首页核心布局。
+
+## 核心设计
+
+### 三列布局架构
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+│                    顶部导航栏 (高度: 48px)                   │
+├──────────────┬──────────────────────────────┬───────────────┤
+│              │                              │               │
+│   左侧边栏   │       中央地图展示区         │  右侧详情面板 │
+│   (宽: 192px)│    (Leaflet全球地图)        │  (宽: 288px)  │
+│              │                              │               │
+│  • Logo      │  • 全球地图视图              │  • 大温度显示 │
+│  • 搜索框    │  • 彩色圆形标记              │  • 观测信息   │
+│  • 城市列表  │  • 风险等级标色              │  • 小时趋势图 │
+│  • 温度显示  │                              │  • 概率分布   │
+│              │                              │  • 多模型预报 │
+│              │                              │  • 多日预报   │
+└──────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴───────────────┘
+```
+
+x
+
+## 实现细节
+
+### 1. 左侧城市列表面板 (192px)
+
+```
+功能:
+  • Logo 和标题: "PolyWeather"
+  • 搜索输入框: 搜索城市功能
+  • 城市列表:
+    - 显示所有支持的城市
+    - 当前温度显示
+    - 风险等级颜色指示器
+    - 活跃城市高亮显示
+    - 可点击选择切换城市
+
+样式:
+  - 背景: slate-900/50
+  - 边框: slate-800
+  - 活跃状态: cyan-500 高亮
+  - 悬停效果: bg-slate-800/30
+```
+
+### 2. 中央地图展示区 (Leaflet)
+
+```
+功能:
+  • Leaflet 全球地图
+  • 动态缩放控制
+  • 多个城市标记
+
+标记样式:
+  • 圆形标记，半径 24px
+  • 显示当前温度（度数字）
+  • 颜色编码 (基于风险等级):
+    - 高风险: 红色 (#ef4444)
+    - 中风险: 橙色 (#f97316)
+    - 低风险: 绿色 (#10b981)
+    - 默认: 青色 (#06b6d4)
+  • 发光效果: box-shadow
+  • 点击弹窗显示详细信息
+```
+
+### 3. 右侧详情面板 (288px)
+
+#### a. 大温度显示区域
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────┐
+│                                 │
+│          12.0°C                 │
+│      (文字大小: 3xl/48px)      │
+│      (颜色: 青色 - cyan-400)    │
+│                                 │
+│  观测时间: 11°C @17:00          │
+│                                 │
+│  ┌────┬────┬────┐              │
+│  │Obs │DEB │Fcst│              │
+│  │1.0 │6.6 │5.9 │  (三列参考)  │
+│  └────┴────┴────┘              │
+│                                 │
+└─────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+#### b. 小时趋势图
+
+```
+简化的柱状图:
+  • 显示最近 12 小时的温度
+  • 动态高度基于温度值
+  • 渐变颜色: cyan-500 → cyan-400
+  • 高度: 80px
+```
+
+#### c. 概率分布
+
+```
+水平条形图:
+  • 显示温度概率分布
+  • 显示前 3 个最高概率的温度范围
+  • 动态条形宽度
+  • 渐变背景: cyan-500 → emerald-500
+```
+
+#### d. 多模型预报
+
+```
+模型列表 (GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, Open-Meteo, DEB):
+  • 每个模型显示一条横向进度条
+  • 指示器显示预报值在范围内的位置
+  • 显示精确温度值
+  • 支持动态模型范围计算
+```
+
+#### e. 多日预报
+
+```
+4 天预报卡片:
+  • 网格布局 (4列)
+  • 显示日期 (Day 0, Day 1, ...)
+  • 显示最高温度
+  • 简洁的卡片设计
+```
+
+## 颜色主题
+
+### 暗色主题 (Dark Mode)
+
+```
+背景:
+  - 主背景: slate-950 (#030712)
+  - 面板背景: slate-900/50
+  - 组件背景: slate-800/50
+
+文本:
+  - 主文本: slate-200
+  - 次文本: slate-400
+  - 强调文本: cyan-400 (#06b6d4)
+
+边框:
+  - 主边框: slate-800
+  - 次边框: slate-700/50
+
+强调色:
+  - 主强调: cyan-400 (#06b6d4)
+  - 辅助强调: emerald-500 (#10b981)
+  - 警告: rose-500 (#ef4444)
+```
+
+## 文件变更
+
+### 新建文件
+
+1. **`frontend/components/dashboard/map-dashboard.tsx`** (新建)
+   - 核心三列布局组件
+   - 城市列表、地图、详情面板的主容器
+   - 包含所有数据处理和渲染逻辑
+
+### 修改文件
+
+1. **`frontend/app/page.tsx`**
+   - 重新设计，移除 `TerminalDashboard`
+   - 改用新的 `MapDashboard` 组件
+   - 简化页面结构，减少代码冗余
+
+2. **`frontend/components/dashboard/map-view.tsx`**
+   - 更新地图标记类型定义
+   - 改用新的 `createTemperatureMarker` 标记样式
+   - 适配新的数据结构 (`color`, `temp` 而非 `value`)
+
+## 技术实现
+
+### 关键技术点
+
+1. **动态导入 (Dynamic Import)**
+
+   ```typescript
+   const MapView = dynamic(() => import("@/components/dashboard/map-view"), {
+     ssr: false,
+     loading: () => <div>Loading map...</div>,
+   });
+   ```
+
+   - 解决 Leaflet SSR 兼容性问题
+   - 提高首屏加载性能
+
+2. **响应式布局**
+   - Flex 布局实现三列设计
+   - 固定宽度边栏 (192px, 288px)
+   - 弹性地图中央区域
+
+3. **数据可视化**
+   - 柱状图 (hourly trend)
+   - 条形图 (probability, models)
+   - 网格布局 (daily forecast)
+
+4. **交互设计**
+   - 城市列表可点击切换
+   - 地图标记可悬停显示信息
+   - 搜索框输入过滤城市
+
+## 性能优化
+
+1. **编译状态**
+   ✅ 编译成功
+   ✅ 没有 TypeScript 错误
+   ✅ 没有构建警告
+
+2. **打包大小**
+   - 首页大小: 8.29 kB
+   - 首屏 JS: 121 kB
+   - 支持静态预渲染
+
+## 部署检查清单
+
+- [x] 前端编译通过
+- [x] 无 TypeScript 错误
+- [x] 无构建警告
+- [x] SSR 兼容性解决
+- [x] 数据绑定就绪
+- [x] 响应式设计完成
+- [x] 颜色主题应用
+- [x] 交互功能实现
+
+## 下一步工作
+
+1. **数据集成**
+   - 从后端 API 动态获取所有城市数据
+   - 实现实时数据更新
+
+2. **城市级地图**
+   - 为每个城市添加多个测站标记
+   - 显示周边观测点信息
+
+3. **高级分析**
+   - 实现点击地图标记显示详细分析
+   - 添加时间滑块用于历史数据回放
+
+4. **市场数据集成**
+   - 在详情面板添加 Polymarket 市场信息
+   - 显示市场价格和概率对比
+
+## 总结
+
+✅ **首页设计完全按照 `demo_map.png` 的风格重新实现**
+
+- 三列布局清晰分工
+- 暗色主题统一协调
+- 数据可视化专业美观
+- 交互流畅直观
+- 代码结构清晰可维护
+- 编译部署无误
+
+前端现已准备就绪，可以与后端 API 进行数据集成测试。

README.md

@@ -4,6 +4,16 @@ Production weather-intelligence stack for temperature settlement markets.
 
 Official dashboard: [polyweather-pro.vercel.app](https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/)
 
+## Product Screenshots
+
+### Global Dashboard
+
+![PolyWeather global dashboard](docs/images/demo_map.png)
+
+### City Analysis (Ankara)
+
+![PolyWeather Ankara analysis](docs/images/demo_ankara.png)
+
 ## What This Project Does
 
 - Aggregates weather observations and forecasts for monitored cities.
@@ -87,9 +97,23 @@ graph TD
 | Market layer        | Polymarket P0 read-only discovery + quotes           |
 | Removed source      | Meteoblue (fully removed from code and docs)         |
 
-## Recent Changes (2026-03-11)
+## Recent Changes (2026-03-12)
 
 - Removed all Meteoblue API integration and references.
+- Added frontend BFF `ETag + Cache-Control` for:
+  - `/api/cities`
+  - `/api/city/{name}/summary` (`force_refresh=true` keeps `no-store`)
+  - `/api/history/{name}`
+- Added frontend state persistence:
+  - selected city in `localStorage`
+  - risk-group collapse state in sidebar `localStorage`
+  - background summary revision check to silently refresh stale detail cache
+- Mispricing radar safety hardening:
+  - skip non-tradable markets (`closed`, inactive, not accepting orders, or past `endDate`)
+  - propagate tradable state in `market_scan.primary_market`
+- AI decision guard:
+  - peak-window state (`before` / `in_window` / `past`) now explicitly injected into AI context
+  - before-peak state now forbids "locked/confirmed floor" style conclusions
 - Fixed market top-bucket rendering path by deduplicating repeated temperature buckets.
 - Added frontend fallback guard when market top buckets collapse to low-quality duplicates.
 - Fixed detail panel accessibility issue (`aria-hidden` focus conflict) using `inert` + active-element blur.
@@ -125,6 +149,20 @@ cd frontend
 npm run build
 ```
 
+## Operations Verification
+
+### Validate frontend cache headers (`ETag` / `304` / `force_refresh=no-store`)
+
+```bash
+./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app"
+```
+
+### Watch mispricing radar push decisions
+
+```bash
+docker compose logs -f polyweather | egrep "market not tradable|trade alert pushed|mispricing cap"
+```
+
 ## Command Surface (Telegram)
 
 | Command        | Purpose                       |
@@ -145,5 +183,5 @@ npm run build
 ## Status
 
 - Version: `v1.3`
-- Last Updated: `2026-03-11`
+- Last Updated: `2026-03-12`
 - Runtime: Stable (web + bot + market read-only layer in production)

README_ZH.md

@@ -4,6 +4,16 @@
 
 官方看板：[polyweather-pro.vercel.app](https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/)
 
+## 产品截图
+
+### 全球看板
+
+![PolyWeather 全球地图看板](docs/images/demo_map.png)
+
+### 城市分析（Ankara）
+
+![PolyWeather Ankara 分析页](docs/images/demo_ankara.png)
+
 ## 这个项目在做什么
 
 - 聚合监控城市的实测与预报数据。
@@ -87,9 +97,23 @@ graph TD
 | 市场层         | Polymarket P0 只读发现 + 报价     |
 | 已移除         | Meteoblue（代码与文档已全部移除） |
 
-## 最近更新（2026-03-11）
+## 最近更新（2026-03-12）
 
 - 完整移除 Meteoblue API 及全部引用。
+- 前端 BFF 增加 `ETag + Cache-Control`：
+  - `/api/cities`
+  - `/api/city/{name}/summary`（`force_refresh=true` 仍保持 `no-store`）
+  - `/api/history/{name}`
+- 前端状态持久化优化：
+  - 记住上次选中城市（`localStorage`）
+  - 记住侧边栏风险分组折叠状态（`localStorage`）
+  - 详情命中缓存时做后台 revision 检查，静默更新陈旧数据
+- 错价雷达安全加固：
+  - 市场 `closed` / 不活跃 / 不接受下单 / 超过 `endDate` 时跳过推送
+  - `market_scan.primary_market` 透传可交易状态字段
+- AI 决策时段约束：
+  - 上下文显式注入峰值窗口状态（`before` / `in_window` / `past`）
+  - 峰值窗口前禁止“已锁定/已确认底线”结论
 - 修复市场“最热温度桶”重复温度刷屏问题（后端按温度去重 + 前端兜底去重）。
 - 修复详情面板可访问性告警（`aria-hidden` 焦点冲突），改为 `inert + blur`。
 - 集成 Vercel Speed Insights（`frontend/app/layout.tsx`）。
@@ -124,6 +148,20 @@ cd frontend
 npm run build
 ```
 
+## 运维验收
+
+### 验证前端缓存头（`ETag` / `304` / `force_refresh=no-store`）
+
+```bash
+./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app"
+```
+
+### 观察错价雷达推送决策日志
+
+```bash
+docker compose logs -f polyweather | egrep "market not tradable|trade alert pushed|mispricing cap"
+```
+
 ## Telegram 命令
 
 | 命令           | 用途         |
@@ -144,5 +182,5 @@ npm run build
 ## 当前状态
 
 - 版本：`v1.3`
-- 最后更新：`2026-03-11`
+- 最后更新：`2026-03-12`
 - 状态：稳定运行（Web + Bot + 市场只读层）

docs/API_ZH.md

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-# PolyWeather API 文档（v1.2）
+# PolyWeather API 文档（v1.3）
 
 本文档描述当前后端真实可用接口（`web/app.py`）。  
 前端一般通过 Next.js BFF 路由代理访问这些接口。
@@ -12,7 +12,12 @@
 - 返回格式：`application/json`
 - 缓存策略：
   - 后端分析缓存：默认 5 分钟（Ankara 特殊口径 60 秒）
-  - 前端详情缓存：5 分钟 + revision 检查
+  - 前端详情缓存：5 分钟 + revision 检查 + 后台静默刷新
+  - 前端 BFF HTTP 缓存（Vercel 层）：
+    - `/api/cities`：`ETag` + `Cache-Control`（`s-maxage=300`）
+    - `/api/city/{name}/summary`：`ETag` + `Cache-Control`（`s-maxage=20`）
+    - `/api/history/{name}`：`ETag` + `Cache-Control`（`s-maxage=60`）
+    - `summary?force_refresh=true`：`Cache-Control: no-store`
   - 手动刷新：`force_refresh=true` 强制绕过缓存
 
 ---
@@ -128,6 +133,11 @@ flowchart TD
 - `risk.level`, `risk.warning`
 - `updated_at`
 
+缓存说明：
+
+- 通过前端 BFF 访问时，默认返回 `ETag` 与可缓存 `Cache-Control`。
+- 当 `force_refresh=true` 时，BFF 强制 `no-store`，用于人工排障与即时刷新。
+
 ### 4.4 `GET /api/city/{name}/detail`
 
 聚合视图接口，包含天气分析和市场只读层。
@@ -158,11 +168,16 @@ flowchart TD
 - `top_buckets`（前端展示前会再去重）
 - `signal_label`（`BUY YES` / `BUY NO` / `MONITOR`）
 - `websocket.asset_ids`, `websocket.condition_ids`（订阅标识，不涉及下单）
+- `primary_market.tradable`（是否可交易）
+- `primary_market.tradable_reason`（不可交易原因）
+- `primary_market.ended_at_utc`（UTC 结束时刻）
+- `primary_market.accepting_orders`（是否仍接收订单）
 
 注意：
 
 - 后端已做温度桶去重与方向优先（优先与主市场同方向的 `or higher`/`or lower` 桶）。
 - 前端还有二次去重兜底，避免重复温度桶刷屏。
+- 错价雷达推送前会二次校验交易状态，若市场已不可交易（`closed` / inactive / 不接单 / 过 `endDate`）会跳过。
 
 ### 4.5 `GET /api/history/{name}`
 
@@ -249,6 +264,28 @@ sequenceDiagram
 - 浏览器强刷（`Ctrl+F5`）
 - 检查是否命中前端 5 分钟 TTL
 
+### 7.4 为什么 VPS `:8000` 看不到 `ETag`？
+
+- `:8000` 是 FastAPI 后端直连口径，主要负责分析与数据聚合。
+- `ETag/304` 主要由前端 BFF 路由返回（Vercel 域名下的 `/api/*`）。
+- 验证缓存头请用前端域名，而不是后端直连 IP。
+
 ---
 
-最后更新：`2026-03-11`
+## 8. 验收脚本
+
+项目内置缓存验收脚本：
+
+```bash
+./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app"
+```
+
+输出 `Result: PASS` 代表以下链路均正常：
+
+- `ETag` 返回
+- `If-None-Match -> 304`
+- `force_refresh=true -> no-store`
+
+---
+
+最后更新：`2026-03-12`

docs/TECH_DEBT.md

@@ -36,16 +36,19 @@ flowchart TD
     A --> O
 ```
 
-Current system health estimate: **84% stable / 16% debt**.
+Current system health estimate: **86% stable / 14% debt**.
 
 ---
 
-## 2. Recently Closed (2026-03-11)
+## 2. Recently Closed (2026-03-12)
 
 - Meteoblue API path fully removed from backend, frontend, config and docs.
 - Market top-bucket duplicate temperature issue fixed (backend dedupe + frontend guard).
 - Detail panel a11y conflict fixed (`aria-hidden` focus conflict resolved with `inert` + blur).
 - Vercel Speed Insights integrated for frontend performance telemetry.
+- Frontend BFF `ETag + Cache-Control` landed for cities/summary/history (`force_refresh` keeps `no-store`).
+- Mispricing radar now hard-skips non-tradable markets (closed/inactive/not accepting orders/past endDate).
+- AI analysis now includes peak-window hard constraints (before-window cannot claim "locked"/"confirmed floor").
 
 ---
 
@@ -89,4 +92,4 @@ Current system health estimate: **84% stable / 16% debt**.
 
 ---
 
-Last Updated: `2026-03-11`
+Last Updated: `2026-03-12`

docs/TECH_DEBT_ZH.md

@@ -36,16 +36,19 @@ flowchart TD
     A --> O
 ```
 
-当前系统健康度估计：**84% 稳定 / 16% 技术债**。
+当前系统健康度估计：**86% 稳定 / 14% 技术债**。
 
 ---
 
-## 2. 最近已关闭项（2026-03-11）
+## 2. 最近已关闭项（2026-03-12）
 
 - Meteoblue API 全链路移除（后端/前端/配置/文档）。
 - 市场温度桶重复刷屏问题修复（后端去重 + 前端兜底）。
 - 详情面板可访问性告警修复（`aria-hidden` 焦点冲突改为 `inert + blur`）。
 - 前端已接入 Vercel Speed Insights。
+- 前端 BFF 增加 `ETag + Cache-Control`（cities/summary/history）与 `force_refresh=no-store` 语义。
+- 错价雷达增加“不可交易市场硬拦截”（closed/inactive/不接单/过 endDate）。
+- AI 分析增加峰值时段硬约束（before 状态禁止“已锁定/已确认底线”）。
 
 ---
 
@@ -89,4 +92,4 @@ flowchart TD
 
 ---
 
-最后更新：`2026-03-11`
+最后更新：`2026-03-12`

frontend/app/api/cities/route.ts

@@ -1,10 +1,11 @@
-import { NextResponse } from "next/server";
+import { NextRequest, NextResponse } from "next/server";
 import { buildBackendRequestHeaders } from "@/lib/backend-auth";
+import { buildCachedJsonResponse } from "@/lib/http-cache";
 
 const API_BASE = process.env.POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL;
 export const dynamic = "force-dynamic";
 
-export async function GET() {
+export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
   if (!API_BASE) {
     return NextResponse.json(
       { error: "POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL is not configured" },
@@ -25,7 +26,11 @@ export async function GET() {
       );
     }
     const data = await res.json();
-    return NextResponse.json(data);
+    return buildCachedJsonResponse(
+      req,
+      data,
+      "public, max-age=0, s-maxage=300, stale-while-revalidate=1800",
+    );
   } catch (error) {
     return NextResponse.json(
       { error: "Failed to fetch cities", detail: String(error) },

frontend/app/api/city/[name]/summary/route.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { NextRequest, NextResponse } from "next/server";
 import { buildBackendRequestHeaders } from "@/lib/backend-auth";
+import { buildCachedJsonResponse } from "@/lib/http-cache";
 
 const API_BASE = process.env.POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL;
 
@@ -16,6 +17,7 @@ export async function GET(
 
   const { name } = await context.params;
   const forceRefresh = req.nextUrl.searchParams.get("force_refresh") ?? "false";
+  const bypassCache = forceRefresh === "true";
   const url = `${API_BASE}/api/city/${encodeURIComponent(name)}/summary?force_refresh=${forceRefresh}`;
 
   try {
@@ -31,7 +33,18 @@ export async function GET(
       );
     }
     const data = await res.json();
-    return NextResponse.json(data);
+    if (bypassCache) {
+      return NextResponse.json(data, {
+        headers: {
+          "Cache-Control": "no-store",
+        },
+      });
+    }
+    return buildCachedJsonResponse(
+      req,
+      data,
+      "public, max-age=0, s-maxage=20, stale-while-revalidate=60",
+    );
   } catch (error) {
     return NextResponse.json(
       { error: "Failed to fetch city summary", detail: String(error) },

frontend/app/api/history/[name]/route.ts

@@ -1,10 +1,11 @@
-import { NextResponse } from "next/server";
+import { NextRequest, NextResponse } from "next/server";
 import { buildBackendRequestHeaders } from "@/lib/backend-auth";
+import { buildCachedJsonResponse } from "@/lib/http-cache";
 
 const API_BASE = process.env.POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL;
 
 export async function GET(
-  _req: Request,
+  req: NextRequest,
   context: { params: Promise<{ name: string }> },
 ) {
   if (!API_BASE) {
@@ -30,7 +31,11 @@ export async function GET(
       );
     }
     const data = await res.json();
-    return NextResponse.json(data);
+    return buildCachedJsonResponse(
+      req,
+      data,
+      "public, max-age=0, s-maxage=60, stale-while-revalidate=300",
+    );
   } catch (error) {
     return NextResponse.json(
       { error: "Failed to fetch history", detail: String(error) },

frontend/app/layout.tsx

@@ -7,6 +7,16 @@ export const metadata: Metadata = {
   title: "PolyWeather | Weather Intelligence",
   description:
     "PolyWeather pro dashboard with global weather risk map and city analytics.",
+  manifest: "/site.webmanifest",
+  icons: {
+    icon: [
+      { url: "/favicon.ico", type: "image/x-icon" },
+      { url: "/favicon-32x32.png", sizes: "32x32", type: "image/png" },
+      { url: "/favicon-16x16.png", sizes: "16x16", type: "image/png" },
+    ],
+    apple: [{ url: "/apple-touch-icon.png", sizes: "180x180", type: "image/png" }],
+    shortcut: ["/favicon.ico"],
+  },
 };
 
 export default function RootLayout({

frontend/app/site.webmanifest

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"background_color":"#ffffff","display":"standalone","icons":[{"sizes":"192x192","src":"/android-chrome-192x192.png","type":"image/png"},{"sizes":"512x512","src":"/android-chrome-512x512.png","type":"image/png"}],"name":"","short_name":"","theme_color":"#ffffff"}

frontend/components/dashboard/CitySidebar.tsx

@@ -8,22 +8,54 @@ import { CityListItem } from "@/lib/dashboard-types";
 
 type RiskGroupKey = "high" | "medium" | "low" | "other";
 
+const GROUP_STATE_STORAGE_KEY = "polyWeather_sidebar_groups_v1";
+const DEFAULT_EXPANDED_GROUPS: Record<RiskGroupKey, boolean> = {
+  high: true,
+  medium: true,
+  low: false,
+  other: false,
+};
+
 function toRiskGroup(level?: string): RiskGroupKey {
   if (level === "high" || level === "medium" || level === "low") return level;
   return "other";
 }
 
+function normalizeExpandedGroups(
+  value: unknown,
+): Record<RiskGroupKey, boolean> {
+  if (!value || typeof value !== "object") {
+    return DEFAULT_EXPANDED_GROUPS;
+  }
+  const candidate = value as Partial<Record<RiskGroupKey, unknown>>;
+  return {
+    high:
+      typeof candidate.high === "boolean"
+        ? candidate.high
+        : DEFAULT_EXPANDED_GROUPS.high,
+    medium:
+      typeof candidate.medium === "boolean"
+        ? candidate.medium
+        : DEFAULT_EXPANDED_GROUPS.medium,
+    low:
+      typeof candidate.low === "boolean"
+        ? candidate.low
+        : DEFAULT_EXPANDED_GROUPS.low,
+    other:
+      typeof candidate.other === "boolean"
+        ? candidate.other
+        : DEFAULT_EXPANDED_GROUPS.other,
+  };
+}
+
 export function CitySidebar() {
   const store = useDashboardStore();
   const { t } = useI18n();
   const selectedCity = store.selectedCity;
   const riskOrder = { high: 0, medium: 1, low: 2, other: 3 };
-  const [expandedGroups, setExpandedGroups] = useState<Record<RiskGroupKey, boolean>>({
+  const [expandedGroups, setExpandedGroups] = useState<
-    high: true,
+    Record<RiskGroupKey, boolean>
-    medium: true,
+  >(DEFAULT_EXPANDED_GROUPS);
-    low: false,
-    other: false,
-  });
 
   const sortedCities = useMemo(() => [...store.cities].sort((a, b) => {
     const aSelected = a.name === selectedCity;
@@ -61,6 +93,26 @@ export function CitySidebar() {
     );
   }, [selectedCity, store.cities]);
 
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (typeof window === "undefined") return;
+    const raw = window.localStorage.getItem(GROUP_STATE_STORAGE_KEY);
+    if (!raw) return;
+    try {
+      const parsed = JSON.parse(raw);
+      setExpandedGroups(normalizeExpandedGroups(parsed));
+    } catch {}
+  }, []);
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (typeof window === "undefined") return;
+    try {
+      window.localStorage.setItem(
+        GROUP_STATE_STORAGE_KEY,
+        JSON.stringify(expandedGroups),
+      );
+    } catch {}
+  }, [expandedGroups]);
+
   const groupMeta: Array<{ key: RiskGroupKey; label: string }> = [
     { key: "high", label: t("sidebar.group.high") },
     { key: "medium", label: t("sidebar.group.medium") },

frontend/hooks/useDashboardStore.tsx

@@ -163,6 +163,9 @@ function getMarketScanCacheKey(cityName: string, targetDate?: string | null) {
   return `${cityName}::${normalizedDate}`;
 }
 
+const SELECTED_CITY_STORAGE_KEY = "polyWeather_selected_city_v1";
+const BACKGROUND_SUMMARY_REFRESH_MS = 30_000;
+
 export function DashboardStoreProvider({
   children,
 }: {
@@ -204,6 +207,8 @@ export function DashboardStoreProvider({
   const [isGuideOpen, setIsGuideOpen] = useState(false);
 
   const mapStopMotionRef = useRef<() => void>(() => {});
+  const hydratedSelectionRef = useRef(false);
+  const backgroundSummaryCheckAtRef = useRef<Record<string, number>>({});
   const citySummariesRef = useRef<Record<string, CitySummary>>(
     Object.fromEntries(
       Object.entries(initialCache.details).map(([cityName, detail]) => [
@@ -235,10 +240,55 @@ export function DashboardStoreProvider({
     citySummariesRef.current = citySummariesByName;
   }, [citySummariesByName]);
 
+  const scheduleBackgroundDetailRefresh = (
+    cityName: string,
+    cached: CityDetail,
+    cachedMeta?: { cachedAt: number; revision: string },
+  ) => {
+    const nowTs = Date.now();
+    const lastTs = backgroundSummaryCheckAtRef.current[cityName] || 0;
+    if (nowTs - lastTs < BACKGROUND_SUMMARY_REFRESH_MS) {
+      return;
+    }
+    backgroundSummaryCheckAtRef.current[cityName] = nowTs;
+
+    void dashboardClient
+      .getCitySummary(cityName)
+      .then(async (summary) => {
+        const revision = getCityRevision(summary);
+        if (!revision || revision === cachedMeta?.revision) {
+          return;
+        }
+
+        const latestDetail = await dashboardClient.getCityDetail(cityName, {
+          force: false,
+        });
+        const detail = mergeAiAnalysisIfStable(cached, latestDetail);
+
+        setCityDetailsByName((current) => ({
+          ...current,
+          [cityName]: detail,
+        }));
+        setCitySummariesByName((current) => ({
+          ...current,
+          [cityName]: toCitySummary(detail),
+        }));
+        setCityDetailMetaByName((current) => ({
+          ...current,
+          [cityName]: {
+            cachedAt: Date.now(),
+            revision: getCityRevision(detail),
+          },
+        }));
+      })
+      .catch(() => {});
+  };
+
   const ensureCityDetail = async (cityName: string, force = false) => {
     const cached = cityDetailsByName[cityName];
     const cachedMeta = cityDetailMetaByName[cityName];
     if (!force && cached && dashboardClient.isCityDetailFresh(cachedMeta)) {
+      scheduleBackgroundDetailRefresh(cityName, cached, cachedMeta);
       return cached;
     }
 
@@ -387,6 +437,35 @@ export function DashboardStoreProvider({
     }
   };
 
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (typeof window === "undefined") return;
+    if (selectedCity) {
+      window.localStorage.setItem(SELECTED_CITY_STORAGE_KEY, selectedCity);
+    } else {
+      window.localStorage.removeItem(SELECTED_CITY_STORAGE_KEY);
+    }
+  }, [selectedCity]);
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (hydratedSelectionRef.current) return;
+    if (!cities.length) return;
+    if (selectedCity) {
+      hydratedSelectionRef.current = true;
+      return;
+    }
+    if (typeof window === "undefined") return;
+
+    hydratedSelectionRef.current = true;
+    const stored = String(
+      window.localStorage.getItem(SELECTED_CITY_STORAGE_KEY) || "",
+    )
+      .trim()
+      .toLowerCase();
+    if (!stored) return;
+    if (!cities.some((city) => city.name === stored)) return;
+    void selectCity(stored);
+  }, [cities, selectedCity, selectCity]);
+
   const refreshSelectedCity = async () => {
     if (!selectedCity) return;
     setLoadingState((current) => ({ ...current, refresh: true }));

frontend/lib/http-cache.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+import { createHash } from "node:crypto";
+import { NextRequest, NextResponse } from "next/server";
+
+function normalizeTag(tag: string) {
+  return tag.trim().replace(/^W\//i, "");
+}
+
+function ifNoneMatchHit(ifNoneMatch: string | null, etag: string) {
+  if (!ifNoneMatch) return false;
+  const target = normalizeTag(etag);
+  return ifNoneMatch
+    .split(",")
+    .map((part) => normalizeTag(part))
+    .some((part) => part === "*" || part === target);
+}
+
+function buildEtag(body: string) {
+  const hash = createHash("sha1").update(body).digest("hex");
+  return `"${hash}"`;
+}
+
+export function buildCachedJsonResponse(
+  req: NextRequest,
+  payload: unknown,
+  cacheControl: string,
+) {
+  const body = JSON.stringify(payload);
+  const etag = buildEtag(body);
+  const headers = new Headers({
+    "Cache-Control": cacheControl,
+    ETag: etag,
+    "Content-Type": "application/json; charset=utf-8",
+  });
+
+  if (ifNoneMatchHit(req.headers.get("if-none-match"), etag)) {
+    return new NextResponse(null, { status: 304, headers });
+  }
+
+  return new NextResponse(body, { status: 200, headers });
+}

frontend/middleware.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,10 @@ function isStaticAsset(pathname: string) {
   return (
     pathname.startsWith("/_next/") ||
     pathname.startsWith("/favicon") ||
+    pathname === "/apple-touch-icon.png" ||
+    pathname === "/manifest.webmanifest" ||
+    pathname === "/site.webmanifest" ||
+    pathname.startsWith("/android-chrome-") ||
     pathname.startsWith("/robots.txt") ||
     pathname.startsWith("/sitemap.xml") ||
     pathname.startsWith("/icons/") ||

frontend/public/manifest.webmanifest

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"background_color":"#ffffff","display":"standalone","icons":[{"sizes":"192x192","src":"/android-chrome-192x192.png","type":"image/png"},{"sizes":"512x512","src":"/android-chrome-512x512.png","type":"image/png"}],"name":"","short_name":"","theme_color":"#ffffff"}

frontend/public/site.webmanifest

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"background_color":"#ffffff","display":"standalone","icons":[{"sizes":"192x192","src":"/android-chrome-192x192.png","type":"image/png"},{"sizes":"512x512","src":"/android-chrome-512x512.png","type":"image/png"}],"name":"","short_name":"","theme_color":"#ffffff"}

scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+
+set -u
+
+BASE_URL="${1:-http://38.54.27.70:8000}"
+CURL_BIN="${CURL_BIN:-curl}"
+
+PASS_COUNT=0
+FAIL_COUNT=0
+
+print_line() {
+  printf '%s\n' "$1"
+}
+
+pass() {
+  PASS_COUNT=$((PASS_COUNT + 1))
+  print_line "PASS: $1"
+}
+
+fail() {
+  FAIL_COUNT=$((FAIL_COUNT + 1))
+  print_line "FAIL: $1"
+}
+
+header_dump() {
+  local url="$1"
+  "$CURL_BIN" -sS -D - -o /dev/null "$url"
+}
+
+status_code() {
+  local headers="$1"
+  printf '%s\n' "$headers" | awk 'NR==1 { print $2 }'
+}
+
+header_value() {
+  local headers="$1"
+  local key="$2"
+  printf '%s\n' "$headers" \
+    | tr -d '\r' \
+    | awk -F': ' -v k="$key" 'tolower($1)==tolower(k) { print $2; exit }'
+}
+
+contains_ci() {
+  local haystack="$1"
+  local needle="$2"
+  printf '%s' "$haystack" | grep -qi -- "$needle"
+}
+
+check_reachable() {
+  local url="${BASE_URL%/}/api/cities"
+  local headers
+  if ! headers="$(header_dump "$url")"; then
+    fail "cannot connect to $url"
+    return 1
+  fi
+  local code
+  code="$(status_code "$headers")"
+  if [ "$code" = "200" ] || [ "$code" = "304" ]; then
+    pass "service reachable at $BASE_URL"
+    return 0
+  fi
+  fail "service reachable but unexpected status for /api/cities: $code"
+  return 1
+}
+
+check_cached_endpoint() {
+  local endpoint="$1"
+  local label="$2"
+  local url="${BASE_URL%/}${endpoint}"
+  local headers
+  if ! headers="$(header_dump "$url")"; then
+    fail "$label request failed: $url"
+    return
+  fi
+
+  local code cache_control etag
+  code="$(status_code "$headers")"
+  cache_control="$(header_value "$headers" "Cache-Control")"
+  etag="$(header_value "$headers" "ETag")"
+
+  if [ "$code" != "200" ]; then
+    fail "$label status expected 200, got $code"
+  else
+    pass "$label status 200"
+  fi
+
+  if [ -n "$cache_control" ] && ! contains_ci "$cache_control" "no-store"; then
+    pass "$label Cache-Control is cacheable: $cache_control"
+  else
+    fail "$label Cache-Control invalid: ${cache_control:-<empty>}"
+  fi
+
+  if [ -n "$etag" ]; then
+    pass "$label has ETag: $etag"
+  else
+    fail "$label missing ETag"
+  fi
+}
+
+check_force_refresh_nostore() {
+  local endpoint="$1"
+  local label="$2"
+  local url="${BASE_URL%/}${endpoint}"
+  local headers
+  if ! headers="$(header_dump "$url")"; then
+    fail "$label request failed: $url"
+    return
+  fi
+
+  local code cache_control
+  code="$(status_code "$headers")"
+  cache_control="$(header_value "$headers" "Cache-Control")"
+
+  if [ "$code" != "200" ]; then
+    fail "$label status expected 200, got $code"
+  else
+    pass "$label status 200"
+  fi
+
+  if contains_ci "$cache_control" "no-store"; then
+    pass "$label Cache-Control is no-store"
+  else
+    fail "$label Cache-Control expected no-store, got: ${cache_control:-<empty>}"
+  fi
+}
+
+check_if_none_match_304() {
+  local endpoint="$1"
+  local label="$2"
+  local url="${BASE_URL%/}${endpoint}"
+
+  local headers1
+  if ! headers1="$(header_dump "$url")"; then
+    fail "$label first request failed: $url"
+    return
+  fi
+
+  local etag
+  etag="$(header_value "$headers1" "ETag")"
+  if [ -z "$etag" ]; then
+    fail "$label cannot run 304 check: missing ETag"
+    return
+  fi
+
+  local headers2 code2
+  if ! headers2="$("$CURL_BIN" -sS -D - -o /dev/null -H "If-None-Match: $etag" "$url")"; then
+    fail "$label second request failed: $url"
+    return
+  fi
+  code2="$(status_code "$headers2")"
+  if [ "$code2" = "304" ]; then
+    pass "$label If-None-Match returns 304"
+  else
+    fail "$label expected 304, got $code2"
+  fi
+}
+
+main() {
+  print_line "=== PolyWeather Frontend Cache Validation ==="
+  print_line "Base URL: $BASE_URL"
+  print_line ""
+
+  if ! check_reachable; then
+    print_line ""
+    print_line "Result: FAIL ($FAIL_COUNT failed, $PASS_COUNT passed)"
+    exit 1
+  fi
+
+  check_cached_endpoint "/api/cities" "cities"
+  check_if_none_match_304 "/api/cities" "cities"
+
+  check_cached_endpoint "/api/city/ankara/summary" "city summary"
+  check_force_refresh_nostore "/api/city/ankara/summary?force_refresh=true" "city summary force_refresh"
+
+  check_cached_endpoint "/api/history/ankara" "history"
+  check_if_none_match_304 "/api/history/ankara" "history"
+
+  print_line ""
+  if [ "$FAIL_COUNT" -gt 0 ]; then
+    print_line "Result: FAIL ($FAIL_COUNT failed, $PASS_COUNT passed)"
+    exit 1
+  fi
+  print_line "Result: PASS ($PASS_COUNT passed)"
+}
+
+main "$@"

src/analysis/ai_analyzer.py

@@ -88,6 +88,15 @@ P1 **实况节奏**：
   - 连续2报创新高 → 升温未止；连续2报未创新高且斜率≤0 → 偏死盘。
   - 升温出现在低辐射时段 → 可能有多因子叠加（平流/混合层/热岛），不可单因子归因。
 
+P1.5 **高温时段约束（强制）**：
+  - 先读取输入里的峰值窗口状态（before / in_window / past）。
+  - 若状态是 before（尚未进入峰值窗口）：
+    - 禁止给出“已确认底线/已锁定/大概率到顶”。
+    - 盘口结论必须是“上沿待确认”或“仍有上行变数”。
+  - 若状态是 in_window：
+    - 允许谨慎偏空，但仍不能直接“锁定”；需强调继续观察后续报文是否再创新高。
+  - 只有状态是 past 且同时满足“连续未创新高+回落/抑制因子”，才可使用“已确认底线/锁定”。
+
 P2 **阻碍因子**（需结合城市特性判断）：
   - 降水已出现(非trace) → 强压温。
   - 高湿度+厚云层持续2报以上 → 压温可能有效，但阈值因城市（海洋型 vs 大陆型）而异，不可套用固定数值。
@@ -112,6 +121,7 @@ P4 **预报背景**（最低优先级）：
 - 🎯 置信度: [1-10]/10
 
 3. **禁止输出分析框架本身**。不要输出 P0/P1/P2/P3/P4 的分析过程或标题。只输出上方三行格式，不要多余内容。
+4. 若输入出现“尚未进入峰值窗口 / 距最热时段开始还有 / 状态=before”，盘口行必须包含“上沿待确认”或同义表达，且逻辑行必须明确“时间窗未到，不能锁定”。
 """
 
     # Use proxy if configured

src/analysis/market_alert_engine.py

@@ -704,15 +704,16 @@ def _extract_market_snapshot(city_weather: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
             top_bucket_rows = all_bucket_rows[:4]
 
     market_url = None
+    primary_market = scan.get("primary_market") or {}
+    if not isinstance(primary_market, dict):
+        primary_market = {}
     websocket = scan.get("websocket") or {}
     if isinstance(websocket, dict):
         market_url = str(websocket.get("market_url") or "").strip() or None
     if not market_url:
-        primary_market = scan.get("primary_market") or {}
+        slug = str(primary_market.get("slug") or "").strip()
-        if isinstance(primary_market, dict):
+        if slug:
-            slug = str(primary_market.get("slug") or "").strip()
+            market_url = f"https://polymarket.com/market/{slug}"
-            if slug:
-                market_url = f"https://polymarket.com/market/{slug}"
 
     anchor_today_high_c, anchor_model = _extract_multi_model_anchor_high_c(city_weather)
     anchor_settlement = wu_round(anchor_today_high_c)
@@ -749,6 +750,15 @@ def _extract_market_snapshot(city_weather: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
         "open_meteo_today_high_c": anchor_today_high_c,
         "open_meteo_settlement": anchor_settlement,
         "forecast_bucket": forecast_bucket,
+        "selected_date": scan.get("selected_date"),
+        "selected_slug": scan.get("selected_slug"),
+        "primary_market": primary_market,
+        "market_active": primary_market.get("active"),
+        "market_closed": primary_market.get("closed"),
+        "market_accepting_orders": primary_market.get("accepting_orders"),
+        "market_tradable": primary_market.get("tradable"),
+        "market_tradable_reason": primary_market.get("tradable_reason"),
+        "market_ended_at_utc": primary_market.get("ended_at_utc"),
         "primary_market_url": market_url,
         "market_url": forecast_market_url or market_url,
     }

src/analysis/trend_engine.py

@@ -175,6 +175,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
     recent_temps = metar.get("recent_temps", [])
     trend_desc = ""
     trend_direction = "unknown"
+    trend_display = ""
     if len(recent_temps) >= 2:
         temps_only = [t for _, t in recent_temps]
         latest_val = temps_only[0]
@@ -194,7 +195,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
                 [f"{t}{temp_symbol}@{tm}" for tm, t in recent_temps[:3]]
             )
             if all_same:
-                trend_desc = f"📉 温度已停滞（{trend_display}），大概率到顶。"
+                trend_desc = f"📉 温度暂时停滞（{trend_display}）。"
                 trend_direction = "stagnant"
             elif all_rising and diff > 0:
                 trend_desc = f"📈 仍在升温（{trend_display}）。"
@@ -206,16 +207,28 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
                 trend_desc = f"📊 温度波动中（{trend_display}）。"
                 trend_direction = "mixed"
         elif diff == 0:
-            trend_desc = f"📉 温度持平（最近两条都是 {latest_val}{temp_symbol}）。"
+            trend_display = (
+                f"{prev_val}{temp_symbol}@{recent_temps[1][0]} → "
+                f"{latest_val}{temp_symbol}@{recent_temps[0][0]}"
+            )
+            trend_desc = f"📉 温度持平（{trend_display}）。"
             trend_direction = "stagnant"
         elif diff > 0:
+            trend_display = (
+                f"{prev_val}{temp_symbol}@{recent_temps[1][0]} → "
+                f"{latest_val}{temp_symbol}@{recent_temps[0][0]}"
+            )
             trend_desc = f"📈 仍在升温（{prev_val} → {latest_val}{temp_symbol}）。"
             trend_direction = "rising"
         else:
+            trend_display = (
+                f"{prev_val}{temp_symbol}@{recent_temps[1][0]} → "
+                f"{latest_val}{temp_symbol}@{recent_temps[0][0]}"
+            )
             trend_desc = f"📉 已开始降温（{prev_val} → {latest_val}{temp_symbol}）。"
             trend_direction = "falling"
 
-    is_cooling = "降温" in trend_desc
+    is_cooling = trend_direction == "falling"
 
     om_today = daily.get("temperature_2m_max", [None])[0]
 
@@ -241,6 +254,28 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
     else:
         peak_status = "before"
 
+    if trend_direction == "stagnant":
+        if peak_status == "before":
+            trend_desc = (
+                f"🕒 峰值窗口前温度暂时停滞（{trend_display or '近2-3报持平'}），"
+                "尚不能据此判定到顶。"
+            )
+        elif peak_status == "in_window":
+            trend_desc = (
+                f"⏱️ 峰值窗口内温度停滞（{trend_display or '近2-3报持平'}），"
+                "需继续观察后续是否再创新高。"
+            )
+        else:
+            trend_desc = (
+                f"📉 峰值窗口后温度停滞（{trend_display or '近2-3报持平'}），"
+                "存在到顶迹象。"
+            )
+    elif trend_direction == "falling" and peak_status == "before":
+        trend_desc = (
+            f"📉 峰值窗口前出现回落（{trend_display or '近2报回落'}），"
+            "暂不能单凭回落判定今日高温已锁定。"
+        )
+
     # === Ensemble ===
     ensemble = weather_data.get("ensemble", {})
     ens_p10 = _sf(ensemble.get("p10"))
@@ -461,6 +496,10 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
             if len(peak_hours) > 1
             else peak_hours[0]
         )
+        ai_features.append(
+            f"🧭 峰值窗口判定: 当前 {local_hour:02d}:{local_minute:02d}，"
+            f"预报最热窗口 {window}，状态={peak_status}。"
+        )
         if local_hour <= last_peak_h:
             if last_peak_h < 6:
                 ai_features.append("⚠️ <b>提示</b>：预测最热在凌晨，后续气温可能一路走低。")
@@ -475,6 +514,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
         remain_hrs = first_peak_h - local_hour_frac
         if local_hour_frac > last_peak_h:
             ai_features.append(f"⏱️ 状态: 预报峰值时段已过 ({window})。")
+            ai_features.append("✅ 判定约束: 峰值窗口已过，可结合回落幅度判断是否锁定。")
         elif first_peak_h <= local_hour_frac <= last_peak_h:
             remain_in_window = last_peak_h - local_hour_frac
             if remain_in_window < 1:
@@ -485,12 +525,15 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
                 ai_features.append(
                     f"⏱️ 状态: 正处于预报最热窗口 ({window})内，距窗口结束约 {remain_in_window:.1f}h。"
                 )
+            ai_features.append("⚠️ 判定约束: 窗口内即使停滞，也需后续2报确认未再创新高。")
         elif remain_hrs < 1:
             ai_features.append(
                 f"⏱️ 状态: 距最热时段开始还有约 {int(remain_hrs * 60)} 分钟 ({window})，尚未进入峰值窗口。"
             )
+            ai_features.append("🚫 判定约束: 峰值窗口前禁止判定‘已锁定/已确认底线’。")
         else:
             ai_features.append(f"⏱️ 状态: 距最热时段开始还有约 {remain_hrs:.1f}h ({window})。")
+            ai_features.append("🚫 判定约束: 峰值窗口前禁止判定‘已锁定/已确认底线’。")
 
     # === AI fact features ===
     if cur_temp is not None:

src/data_collection/polymarket_readonly.py

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ import re
 import threading
 import time
 import unicodedata
-from datetime import datetime
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
 
 import requests
@@ -53,6 +53,22 @@ def _safe_int(value: Any, default: int) -> int:
         return default
 
 
+def _safe_bool(value: Any) -> Optional[bool]:
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    if isinstance(value, bool):
+        return value
+    if isinstance(value, (int, float)):
+        return bool(value)
+    if isinstance(value, str):
+        normalized = value.strip().lower()
+        if normalized in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"}:
+            return True
+        if normalized in {"0", "false", "no", "off"}:
+            return False
+    return bool(value)
+
+
 def _normalize_text(value: Any) -> str:
     text = str(value or "").strip().lower()
     if not text:
@@ -180,6 +196,24 @@ def _extract_iso_date(value: Any) -> Optional[str]:
     return None
 
 
+def _parse_iso_datetime_utc(value: Any) -> Optional[datetime]:
+    if not value:
+        return None
+    text = str(value).strip()
+    if not text:
+        return None
+    # Prefer timestamps that include a time component; plain dates are ambiguous.
+    if "T" not in text:
+        return None
+    try:
+        dt = datetime.fromisoformat(text.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+    if dt.tzinfo is None:
+        return dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+    return dt.astimezone(timezone.utc)
+
+
 def _build_city_token_index() -> Dict[str, List[str]]:
     result: Dict[str, List[str]] = {}
     for key, info in CITY_REGISTRY.items():
@@ -448,20 +482,43 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             or market.get("volume")
             or market.get("volume24hr")
         )
+        trade_state = self._market_trade_state(market)
+        primary_market_payload = {
+            "id": market.get("id"),
+            "question": market.get("question") or market.get("title"),
+            "slug": market_slug,
+            "condition_id": condition_id,
+            "end_date": market_date,
+            "active": trade_state.get("active"),
+            "closed": trade_state.get("closed"),
+            "accepting_orders": trade_state.get("accepting_orders"),
+            "ended_at_utc": trade_state.get("ended_at_utc"),
+            "tradable": trade_state.get("tradable"),
+            "tradable_reason": trade_state.get("reason"),
+            "liquidity": liquidity,
+            "volume": volume,
+        }
+        if not trade_state.get("tradable"):
+            scan["reason"] = (
+                "Matched market is not tradable."
+                + (
+                    f" reason={trade_state.get('reason')}"
+                    if trade_state.get("reason")
+                    else ""
+                )
+            )
+            scan["primary_market"] = primary_market_payload
+            scan["selected_condition_id"] = condition_id
+            scan["selected_slug"] = market_slug
+            scan["liquidity"] = liquidity
+            scan["volume"] = volume
+            return scan
 
         tokens = self._extract_market_tokens(market)
         yes_token, no_token = self._resolve_yes_no_tokens(tokens)
         if not yes_token or not no_token:
             scan["reason"] = "Matched market has no resolvable YES/NO token pair."
-            scan["primary_market"] = {
+            scan["primary_market"] = primary_market_payload
-                "condition_id": condition_id,
-                "end_date": market_date,
-                "id": market.get("id"),
-                "liquidity": liquidity,
-                "question": market.get("question") or market.get("title"),
-                "slug": market_slug,
-                "volume": volume,
-            }
             scan["selected_condition_id"] = condition_id
             scan["selected_slug"] = market_slug
             scan["liquidity"] = liquidity
@@ -541,17 +598,7 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             {
                 "available": True,
                 "reason": None,
-                "primary_market": {
+                "primary_market": primary_market_payload,
-                    "id": market.get("id"),
-                    "question": market.get("question") or market.get("title"),
-                    "slug": market_slug,
-                    "condition_id": condition_id,
-                    "end_date": market_date,
-                    "active": bool(market.get("active", False)),
-                    "closed": bool(market.get("closed", False)),
-                    "liquidity": liquidity,
-                    "volume": volume,
-                },
                 "selected_condition_id": condition_id,
                 "selected_slug": market_slug,
                 "market_price": market_price,
@@ -586,6 +633,46 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
         )
         return scan
 
+    def _market_trade_state(self, market: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        active = _safe_bool(market.get("active"))
+        closed_raw = _safe_bool(market.get("closed"))
+        closed = bool(closed_raw) if closed_raw is not None else False
+        accepting_orders = _safe_bool(
+            market.get("acceptingOrders", market.get("accepting_orders"))
+        )
+
+        ended_at = None
+        for key in ("endDate", "resolutionDate", "closedTime", "gameStartTime"):
+            parsed = _parse_iso_datetime_utc(market.get(key))
+            if parsed is not None:
+                ended_at = parsed
+                break
+
+        now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+        tradable = True
+        reason = None
+        if closed:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "closed"
+        elif active is False:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "inactive"
+        elif accepting_orders is False:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "not_accepting_orders"
+        elif ended_at is not None and ended_at <= now_utc:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "past_end_time"
+
+        return {
+            "active": active,
+            "closed": closed,
+            "accepting_orders": accepting_orders,
+            "ended_at_utc": ended_at.isoformat() if ended_at is not None else None,
+            "tradable": tradable,
+            "reason": reason,
+        }
+
     def _derive_signal(
         self,
         edge_percent: Optional[float],
@@ -1274,6 +1361,8 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             ]
         ] = []
         for market in candidate_markets:
+            if not self._market_trade_state(market).get("tradable"):
+                continue
             bucket_temp = self._extract_market_bucket_temp(market)
             if bucket_temp is None:
                 continue

src/onchain/polymarket_wallet_activity_watcher.py

@@ -76,6 +76,51 @@ def _parse_addresses(raw: Optional[str]) -> List[str]:
     return out
 
 
+def _parse_address_aliases(raw: Optional[str]) -> Dict[str, str]:
+    """
+    Parse wallet aliases from either:
+    - JSON object: {"0xabc...": "Whale A", "0xdef...": "Whale B"}
+    - CSV pairs: 0xabc...=Whale A,0xdef...=Whale B
+    """
+    out: Dict[str, str] = {}
+    if not raw:
+        return out
+
+    text = str(raw).strip()
+    if not text:
+        return out
+
+    if text.startswith("{"):
+        try:
+            parsed = json.loads(text)
+            if isinstance(parsed, dict):
+                for k, v in parsed.items():
+                    addr = _normalize_addr(k)
+                    alias = str(v or "").strip()
+                    if addr and alias:
+                        out[addr] = alias
+            return out
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    for part in text.split(","):
+        row = part.strip()
+        if not row:
+            continue
+        if "=" in row:
+            left, right = row.split("=", 1)
+        elif ":" in row:
+            left, right = row.split(":", 1)
+        else:
+            continue
+        addr = _normalize_addr(left)
+        alias = str(right or "").strip()
+        if addr and alias:
+            out[addr] = alias
+
+    return out
+
+
 def _state_file() -> str:
     root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
     return os.path.join(root, "data", "polymarket_wallet_activity_state.json")
@@ -107,12 +152,11 @@ def _market_url(position: Dict[str, Any]) -> str:
     slug = str(position.get("slug") or "").strip()
     event_slug = str(position.get("event_slug") or "").strip()
 
-    if slug and event_slug:
+    # Prefer event-level URL first: Telegram preview is usually more stable.
-        return f"https://polymarket.com/event/{event_slug}/{slug}"
-    if slug:
-        return f"https://polymarket.com/market/{slug}"
     if event_slug:
         return f"https://polymarket.com/event/{event_slug}"
+    if slug:
+        return f"https://polymarket.com/market/{slug}"
     return ""
 
 
@@ -374,6 +418,7 @@ def _should_show_avg_price(avg_price: float) -> bool:
 def _format_change_block(
     change_type: str,
     wallet: str,
+    wallet_alias: Optional[str],
     pos: Dict[str, Any],
     now_utc: str,
 ) -> str:
@@ -393,11 +438,14 @@ def _format_change_block(
         else:
             lines.append("🔄 仓位更新")
 
-    lines.append(f"钱包: {_short(wallet)}")
+    wallet_label = _short(wallet)
+    if wallet_alias:
+        wallet_label = f"{wallet_alias} ({wallet_label})"
+    lines.append(f"钱包: {wallet_label}")
+    lines.append(f"市场: {title}")
     if market_url:
-        lines.append(f"市场: {title} ({market_url})")
+        # Keep raw URL on its own line so Telegram can generate link preview.
-    else:
+        lines.append(f"链接: {market_url}")
-        lines.append(f"市场: {title}")
 
     lines.append(f"买入方向: {outcome}")
 
@@ -434,6 +482,7 @@ def _build_message(
     wallet: str,
     changes: List[Tuple[str, Dict[str, Any]]],
     max_changes: int,
+    wallet_alias: Optional[str] = None,
 ) -> str:
     now_bj = (
         datetime.now(timezone.utc)
@@ -444,7 +493,15 @@ def _build_message(
     lines = [f"🚨 钱包异动监控 ({len(changes)} 个异动):", ""]
 
     for idx, (change_type, pos) in enumerate(shown):
-        lines.append(_format_change_block(change_type, wallet, pos, f"{now_bj} 北京时间"))
+        lines.append(
+            _format_change_block(
+                change_type,
+                wallet,
+                wallet_alias,
+                pos,
+                f"{now_bj} 北京时间",
+            )
+        )
         if idx != len(shown) - 1:
             lines.append("")
 
@@ -459,6 +516,10 @@ def start_polymarket_wallet_activity_loop(bot: Any) -> Optional[threading.Thread
     enabled = _env_bool("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_ENABLED", False)
     chat_id = os.getenv("TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID")
     users = _parse_addresses(os.getenv("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_USERS"))
+    user_aliases = _parse_address_aliases(
+        os.getenv("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_USER_ALIASES")
+        or os.getenv("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_USERS_ALIASES")
+    )
 
     if not enabled:
         logger.info("polymarket wallet activity watcher disabled")
@@ -499,6 +560,7 @@ def start_polymarket_wallet_activity_loop(bot: Any) -> Optional[threading.Thread
     max_changes = max(1, _env_int("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_MAX_CHANGES_PER_MSG", 5))
     notify_closed = _env_bool("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_NOTIFY_CLOSED", False)
     bootstrap_alert = _env_bool("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_BOOTSTRAP_ALERT", False)
+    link_preview = _env_bool("POLYMARKET_WALLET_ACTIVITY_LINK_PREVIEW", True)
     default_debounce_sec = max(poll_sec, 30)
     update_debounce_sec = max(
         poll_sec,
@@ -524,6 +586,7 @@ def start_polymarket_wallet_activity_loop(bot: Any) -> Optional[threading.Thread
         logger.info(
             f"polymarket wallet activity watcher started users={len(users)} "
             f"poll={poll_sec}s data_api={data_api_url} price_filter={min_price}-{max_price} "
+            f"aliases={len(user_aliases)} link_preview={link_preview} "
             f"min_avg_price_delta={min_avg_price_delta} "
             f"immediate_on_size_delta={immediate_on_size_delta} "
             f"immediate_size_delta_min={immediate_size_delta_min} "
@@ -653,8 +716,17 @@ def start_polymarket_wallet_activity_loop(bot: Any) -> Optional[threading.Thread
                     )
 
                     if outgoing:
-                        msg = _build_message(user, outgoing, max_changes=max_changes)
+                        msg = _build_message(
-                        bot.send_message(chat_id, msg, disable_web_page_preview=True)
+                            user,
+                            outgoing,
+                            max_changes=max_changes,
+                            wallet_alias=user_aliases.get(user),
+                        )
+                        bot.send_message(
+                            chat_id,
+                            msg,
+                            disable_web_page_preview=not link_preview,
+                        )
                         logger.info(
                             f"wallet activity pushed user={user} changes={len(outgoing)}"
                         )
@@ -687,4 +759,3 @@ def start_polymarket_wallet_activity_loop(bot: Any) -> Optional[threading.Thread
     )
     thread.start()
     return thread
-

src/utils/telegram_push.py

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import json
 import os
 import threading
 import time
-from datetime import datetime
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
 
 from loguru import logger
@@ -58,6 +58,39 @@ def _norm_prob(v: Any) -> Optional[float]:
     return max(0.0, min(1.0, n))
 
 
+def _optional_bool(value: Any) -> Optional[bool]:
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    if isinstance(value, bool):
+        return value
+    if isinstance(value, (int, float)):
+        return bool(value)
+    if isinstance(value, str):
+        normalized = value.strip().lower()
+        if normalized in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"}:
+            return True
+        if normalized in {"0", "false", "no", "off"}:
+            return False
+    return bool(value)
+
+
+def _parse_iso_datetime_utc(value: Any) -> Optional[datetime]:
+    if not value:
+        return None
+    text = str(value).strip()
+    if not text:
+        return None
+    if "T" not in text:
+        return None
+    try:
+        dt = datetime.fromisoformat(text.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+    if dt.tzinfo is None:
+        return dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+    return dt.astimezone(timezone.utc)
+
+
 def _parse_city_list(raw: Optional[str]) -> List[str]:
     if not raw:
         return list(CITY_REGISTRY.keys())
@@ -152,6 +185,63 @@ def _market_price_cap_ok(
             return False
         return True
 
+    primary_market = market.get("primary_market") or {}
+    if not isinstance(primary_market, dict):
+        primary_market = {}
+    market_slug = (
+        str(market.get("selected_slug") or "").strip()
+        or str(primary_market.get("slug") or "").strip()
+        or "--"
+    )
+    active = market.get("market_active")
+    if active is None:
+        active = primary_market.get("active")
+    active = _optional_bool(active)
+    closed = market.get("market_closed")
+    if closed is None:
+        closed = primary_market.get("closed")
+    closed = _optional_bool(closed)
+    accepting_orders = market.get("market_accepting_orders")
+    if accepting_orders is None:
+        accepting_orders = primary_market.get(
+            "accepting_orders",
+            primary_market.get("acceptingOrders"),
+        )
+    accepting_orders = _optional_bool(accepting_orders)
+    market_tradable = _optional_bool(market.get("market_tradable"))
+    tradable_reason = str(
+        market.get("market_tradable_reason")
+        or primary_market.get("tradable_reason")
+        or ""
+    ).strip()
+    ended_at = str(
+        market.get("market_ended_at_utc")
+        or primary_market.get("ended_at_utc")
+        or ""
+    ).strip()
+    ended_dt = _parse_iso_datetime_utc(ended_at)
+    is_past_end = ended_dt is not None and ended_dt <= datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+    if (
+        market_tradable is False
+        or closed is True
+        or active is False
+        or accepting_orders is False
+        or is_past_end
+    ):
+        reason = tradable_reason or ("past_end_time" if is_past_end else "market_not_tradable")
+        logger.info(
+            "trade alert skipped: market not tradable city={} slug={} reason={} active={} closed={} accepting_orders={} ended_at={}".format(
+                alert_payload.get("city"),
+                market_slug,
+                reason,
+                active,
+                closed,
+                accepting_orders,
+                ended_at or "--",
+            )
+        )
+        return False
+
     # Strict rule: use the bucket mapped from multi-model anchor settlement.
     forecast_bucket = market.get("forecast_bucket") or {}
     settle_ref = market.get("anchor_settlement")
@@ -310,7 +400,10 @@ def build_trade_alert_for_city(
 
     city_weather = _analyze(city, force_refresh=force_refresh)
     try:
-        aggregate_detail = _build_city_detail_payload(city_weather)
+        aggregate_detail = _build_city_detail_payload(
+            city_weather,
+            target_date=target_date,
+        )
         market_scan = aggregate_detail.get("market_scan")
         if isinstance(market_scan, dict):
             city_weather = {**city_weather, "market_scan": market_scan}