feat: Add Polymarket read-only data layer, Telegram push utility, and market alert engine.

src/analysis/market_alert_engine.py

@@ -704,15 +704,16 @@ def _extract_market_snapshot(city_weather: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
             top_bucket_rows = all_bucket_rows[:4]
 
     market_url = None
+    primary_market = scan.get("primary_market") or {}
+    if not isinstance(primary_market, dict):
+        primary_market = {}
     websocket = scan.get("websocket") or {}
     if isinstance(websocket, dict):
         market_url = str(websocket.get("market_url") or "").strip() or None
     if not market_url:
-        primary_market = scan.get("primary_market") or {}
-        if isinstance(primary_market, dict):
-            slug = str(primary_market.get("slug") or "").strip()
-            if slug:
-                market_url = f"https://polymarket.com/market/{slug}"
+        slug = str(primary_market.get("slug") or "").strip()
+        if slug:
+            market_url = f"https://polymarket.com/market/{slug}"
 
     anchor_today_high_c, anchor_model = _extract_multi_model_anchor_high_c(city_weather)
     anchor_settlement = wu_round(anchor_today_high_c)
@@ -749,6 +750,15 @@ def _extract_market_snapshot(city_weather: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
         "open_meteo_today_high_c": anchor_today_high_c,
         "open_meteo_settlement": anchor_settlement,
         "forecast_bucket": forecast_bucket,
+        "selected_date": scan.get("selected_date"),
+        "selected_slug": scan.get("selected_slug"),
+        "primary_market": primary_market,
+        "market_active": primary_market.get("active"),
+        "market_closed": primary_market.get("closed"),
+        "market_accepting_orders": primary_market.get("accepting_orders"),
+        "market_tradable": primary_market.get("tradable"),
+        "market_tradable_reason": primary_market.get("tradable_reason"),
+        "market_ended_at_utc": primary_market.get("ended_at_utc"),
         "primary_market_url": market_url,
         "market_url": forecast_market_url or market_url,
     }

src/data_collection/polymarket_readonly.py

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ import re
 import threading
 import time
 import unicodedata
-from datetime import datetime
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
 
 import requests
@@ -53,6 +53,22 @@ def _safe_int(value: Any, default: int) -> int:
         return default
 
 
+def _safe_bool(value: Any) -> Optional[bool]:
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    if isinstance(value, bool):
+        return value
+    if isinstance(value, (int, float)):
+        return bool(value)
+    if isinstance(value, str):
+        normalized = value.strip().lower()
+        if normalized in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"}:
+            return True
+        if normalized in {"0", "false", "no", "off"}:
+            return False
+    return bool(value)
+
+
 def _normalize_text(value: Any) -> str:
     text = str(value or "").strip().lower()
     if not text:
@@ -180,6 +196,24 @@ def _extract_iso_date(value: Any) -> Optional[str]:
     return None
 
 
+def _parse_iso_datetime_utc(value: Any) -> Optional[datetime]:
+    if not value:
+        return None
+    text = str(value).strip()
+    if not text:
+        return None
+    # Prefer timestamps that include a time component; plain dates are ambiguous.
+    if "T" not in text:
+        return None
+    try:
+        dt = datetime.fromisoformat(text.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+    if dt.tzinfo is None:
+        return dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+    return dt.astimezone(timezone.utc)
+
+
 def _build_city_token_index() -> Dict[str, List[str]]:
     result: Dict[str, List[str]] = {}
     for key, info in CITY_REGISTRY.items():
@@ -448,20 +482,43 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             or market.get("volume")
             or market.get("volume24hr")
         )
+        trade_state = self._market_trade_state(market)
+        primary_market_payload = {
+            "id": market.get("id"),
+            "question": market.get("question") or market.get("title"),
+            "slug": market_slug,
+            "condition_id": condition_id,
+            "end_date": market_date,
+            "active": trade_state.get("active"),
+            "closed": trade_state.get("closed"),
+            "accepting_orders": trade_state.get("accepting_orders"),
+            "ended_at_utc": trade_state.get("ended_at_utc"),
+            "tradable": trade_state.get("tradable"),
+            "tradable_reason": trade_state.get("reason"),
+            "liquidity": liquidity,
+            "volume": volume,
+        }
+        if not trade_state.get("tradable"):
+            scan["reason"] = (
+                "Matched market is not tradable."
+                + (
+                    f" reason={trade_state.get('reason')}"
+                    if trade_state.get("reason")
+                    else ""
+                )
+            )
+            scan["primary_market"] = primary_market_payload
+            scan["selected_condition_id"] = condition_id
+            scan["selected_slug"] = market_slug
+            scan["liquidity"] = liquidity
+            scan["volume"] = volume
+            return scan
 
         tokens = self._extract_market_tokens(market)
         yes_token, no_token = self._resolve_yes_no_tokens(tokens)
         if not yes_token or not no_token:
             scan["reason"] = "Matched market has no resolvable YES/NO token pair."
-            scan["primary_market"] = {
-                "condition_id": condition_id,
-                "end_date": market_date,
-                "id": market.get("id"),
-                "liquidity": liquidity,
-                "question": market.get("question") or market.get("title"),
-                "slug": market_slug,
-                "volume": volume,
-            }
+            scan["primary_market"] = primary_market_payload
             scan["selected_condition_id"] = condition_id
             scan["selected_slug"] = market_slug
             scan["liquidity"] = liquidity
@@ -541,17 +598,7 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             {
                 "available": True,
                 "reason": None,
-                "primary_market": {
-                    "id": market.get("id"),
-                    "question": market.get("question") or market.get("title"),
-                    "slug": market_slug,
-                    "condition_id": condition_id,
-                    "end_date": market_date,
-                    "active": bool(market.get("active", False)),
-                    "closed": bool(market.get("closed", False)),
-                    "liquidity": liquidity,
-                    "volume": volume,
-                },
+                "primary_market": primary_market_payload,
                 "selected_condition_id": condition_id,
                 "selected_slug": market_slug,
                 "market_price": market_price,
@@ -586,6 +633,46 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
         )
         return scan
 
+    def _market_trade_state(self, market: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        active = _safe_bool(market.get("active"))
+        closed_raw = _safe_bool(market.get("closed"))
+        closed = bool(closed_raw) if closed_raw is not None else False
+        accepting_orders = _safe_bool(
+            market.get("acceptingOrders", market.get("accepting_orders"))
+        )
+
+        ended_at = None
+        for key in ("endDate", "resolutionDate", "closedTime", "gameStartTime"):
+            parsed = _parse_iso_datetime_utc(market.get(key))
+            if parsed is not None:
+                ended_at = parsed
+                break
+
+        now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+        tradable = True
+        reason = None
+        if closed:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "closed"
+        elif active is False:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "inactive"
+        elif accepting_orders is False:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "not_accepting_orders"
+        elif ended_at is not None and ended_at <= now_utc:
+            tradable = False
+            reason = "past_end_time"
+
+        return {
+            "active": active,
+            "closed": closed,
+            "accepting_orders": accepting_orders,
+            "ended_at_utc": ended_at.isoformat() if ended_at is not None else None,
+            "tradable": tradable,
+            "reason": reason,
+        }
+
     def _derive_signal(
         self,
         edge_percent: Optional[float],
@@ -1274,6 +1361,8 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             ]
         ] = []
         for market in candidate_markets:
+            if not self._market_trade_state(market).get("tradable"):
+                continue
             bucket_temp = self._extract_market_bucket_temp(market)
             if bucket_temp is None:
                 continue

src/utils/telegram_push.py

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import json
 import os
 import threading
 import time
-from datetime import datetime
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
 
 from loguru import logger
@@ -58,6 +58,39 @@ def _norm_prob(v: Any) -> Optional[float]:
     return max(0.0, min(1.0, n))
 
 
+def _optional_bool(value: Any) -> Optional[bool]:
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    if isinstance(value, bool):
+        return value
+    if isinstance(value, (int, float)):
+        return bool(value)
+    if isinstance(value, str):
+        normalized = value.strip().lower()
+        if normalized in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"}:
+            return True
+        if normalized in {"0", "false", "no", "off"}:
+            return False
+    return bool(value)
+
+
+def _parse_iso_datetime_utc(value: Any) -> Optional[datetime]:
+    if not value:
+        return None
+    text = str(value).strip()
+    if not text:
+        return None
+    if "T" not in text:
+        return None
+    try:
+        dt = datetime.fromisoformat(text.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+    if dt.tzinfo is None:
+        return dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+    return dt.astimezone(timezone.utc)
+
+
 def _parse_city_list(raw: Optional[str]) -> List[str]:
     if not raw:
         return list(CITY_REGISTRY.keys())
@@ -152,6 +185,63 @@ def _market_price_cap_ok(
             return False
         return True
 
+    primary_market = market.get("primary_market") or {}
+    if not isinstance(primary_market, dict):
+        primary_market = {}
+    market_slug = (
+        str(market.get("selected_slug") or "").strip()
+        or str(primary_market.get("slug") or "").strip()
+        or "--"
+    )
+    active = market.get("market_active")
+    if active is None:
+        active = primary_market.get("active")
+    active = _optional_bool(active)
+    closed = market.get("market_closed")
+    if closed is None:
+        closed = primary_market.get("closed")
+    closed = _optional_bool(closed)
+    accepting_orders = market.get("market_accepting_orders")
+    if accepting_orders is None:
+        accepting_orders = primary_market.get(
+            "accepting_orders",
+            primary_market.get("acceptingOrders"),
+        )
+    accepting_orders = _optional_bool(accepting_orders)
+    market_tradable = _optional_bool(market.get("market_tradable"))
+    tradable_reason = str(
+        market.get("market_tradable_reason")
+        or primary_market.get("tradable_reason")
+        or ""
+    ).strip()
+    ended_at = str(
+        market.get("market_ended_at_utc")
+        or primary_market.get("ended_at_utc")
+        or ""
+    ).strip()
+    ended_dt = _parse_iso_datetime_utc(ended_at)
+    is_past_end = ended_dt is not None and ended_dt <= datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+    if (
+        market_tradable is False
+        or closed is True
+        or active is False
+        or accepting_orders is False
+        or is_past_end
+    ):
+        reason = tradable_reason or ("past_end_time" if is_past_end else "market_not_tradable")
+        logger.info(
+            "trade alert skipped: market not tradable city={} slug={} reason={} active={} closed={} accepting_orders={} ended_at={}".format(
+                alert_payload.get("city"),
+                market_slug,
+                reason,
+                active,
+                closed,
+                accepting_orders,
+                ended_at or "--",
+            )
+        )
+        return False
+
     # Strict rule: use the bucket mapped from multi-model anchor settlement.
     forecast_bucket = market.get("forecast_bucket") or {}
     settle_ref = market.get("anchor_settlement")
@@ -310,7 +400,10 @@ def build_trade_alert_for_city(
 
     city_weather = _analyze(city, force_refresh=force_refresh)
     try:
-        aggregate_detail = _build_city_detail_payload(city_weather)
+        aggregate_detail = _build_city_detail_payload(
+            city_weather,
+            target_date=target_date,
+        )
         market_scan = aggregate_detail.get("market_scan")
         if isinstance(market_scan, dict):
             city_weather = {**city_weather, "market_scan": market_scan}