Align structural trade cues with market context

2026-03-24 02:07:15 +08:00
parent 5796d380c5
commit fc72b3539d
3 changed files with 183 additions and 12 deletions
@@ -503,6 +503,86 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() {
        marketScan.confidence ? ` / ${marketScan.confidence}` : ""
      }`
    : "--";
+  const upperAirSignal = detail.vertical_profile_signal || {};
+  const topBucketProbability = normalizeMarketValue(topBucket?.probability);
+  const hottestMatchesSettlement =
+    hottestBucketLabel !== "--" &&
+    settlementBucketLabel !== "--" &&
+    hottestBucketLabel === settlementBucketLabel;
+  const marketAwareUpperAirCue = useMemo(() => {
+    if (!isToday || !upperAirSignal.source) return null;
+
+    const crowded = hottestMatchesSettlement && (topBucketProbability || 0) >= 0.3;
+    const setup = String(upperAirSignal.heating_setup || "neutral").toLowerCase();
+
+    if (setup === "supportive") {
+      return {
+        summary: locale === "en-US"
+          ? crowded
+            ? "Upper-air structure still leans warmer, but the target bucket is already crowded. Do not fade lower buckets too early, and do not chase blindly either."
+            : "Upper-air structure still leans warmer, and the market is not fully crowded into the target bucket yet. Do not fade lower buckets too early."
+          : crowded
+            ? "高空结构仍偏支持冲高，但当前目标区间已经较拥挤。不宜过早做更低温区间，也不要盲目继续追价。"
+            : "高空结构仍偏支持冲高，市场最热桶还没完全挤到目标区间。不宜过早做更低温区间。",
+        note: locale === "en-US"
+          ? crowded
+            ? "Warmer side still has structural support, but price is no longer cheap. Wait for surface follow-through before adding."
+            : "Warmer side still has structural support and is not fully overcrowded yet. Fading lower buckets too early is risky."
+          : crowded
+            ? "暖侧仍有结构支撑，但价格已经不算便宜，继续加仓前先等近地面兑现。"
+            : "暖侧仍有结构支撑，且还没有完全过热，过早去做更低温区间风险较高。",
+        tone: "warm",
+        value: locale === "en-US" ? "Lean warmer" : "偏暖侧",
+      };
+    }
+
+    if (setup === "suppressed") {
+      return {
+        summary: locale === "en-US"
+          ? crowded
+            ? "Upper-air structure leans toward capping the high, and the target bucket is already crowded. Chasing higher buckets needs extra caution."
+            : "Upper-air structure leans toward capping the high. Be more careful chasing higher buckets."
+          : crowded
+            ? "高空结构更偏向压住峰值，而且目标区间已经较拥挤。追更高温区间要更谨慎。"
+            : "高空结构更偏向压住峰值，追更高温区间要更谨慎。",
+        note: locale === "en-US"
+          ? crowded
+            ? "Both structure and crowding argue for caution on the hotter side."
+            : "The hotter side needs stronger surface confirmation before adding."
+          : crowded
+            ? "结构和拥挤度都不利于继续追热。"
+            : "更高温区间需要更强的近地面确认后再考虑追价。",
+        tone: "cold",
+        value: locale === "en-US" ? "Lean cautious" : "偏谨慎",
+      };
+    }
+
+    return {
+      summary: locale === "en-US"
+        ? crowded
+          ? "Upper-air structure is neutral, while the target bucket is already crowded. Let surface structure and price action decide before taking a side."
+          : "Upper-air structure is neutral. Let surface structure and price action decide before taking a side."
+        : crowded
+          ? "高空结构偏中性，但目标区间已经较拥挤。先看近地面结构和盘口变化，不急着继续站边。"
+          : "高空结构偏中性，先看近地面结构和盘口变化，不急着站边。",
+      note: locale === "en-US"
+        ? crowded
+          ? "There is no clean edge from the upper-air layer alone, and the market is already leaning. Wait for confirmation."
+          : "There is no clean edge from the upper-air layer alone. Wait for confirmation."
+        : crowded
+          ? "单看高空层没有明确边，而且市场已经先站位，先等确认。"
+          : "单看高空层没有明确边，先等确认。",
+      tone: "",
+      value: locale === "en-US" ? "Wait / confirm" : "先观察",
+    };
+  }, [
+    hottestMatchesSettlement,
+    isToday,
+    locale,
+    topBucketProbability,
+    upperAirSignal.heating_setup,
+    upperAirSignal.source,
+  ]);
  const metarParsed = parseMetarTempDew(detail.current?.raw_metar);
  const fallbackDewpoint =
    detail.current?.dewpoint ??
@@ -566,6 +646,21 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() {
          : risk.airport
          ? `${risk.airport}${risk.icao ? ` (${risk.icao})` : ""}`
          : "--";
+  const displayedUpperAirSummary =
+    marketAwareUpperAirCue?.summary || view.front.upperAirSummary;
+  const displayedUpperAirMetrics = (view.front.upperAirMetrics || []).map(
+    (metric, index) =>
+      index === 0 &&
+      (metric.label === "Trade cue" || metric.label === "交易动作") &&
+      marketAwareUpperAirCue
+        ? {
+            ...metric,
+            note: marketAwareUpperAirCue.note,
+            tone: marketAwareUpperAirCue.tone,
+            value: marketAwareUpperAirCue.value,
+          }
+        : metric,
+  );

  return (
    <div
@@ -1005,19 +1100,19 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() {
                        </div>
                      ))}
                    </div>
-                    {view.front.upperAirSummary ||
-                    (view.front.upperAirMetrics?.length || 0) > 0 ? (
+                    {displayedUpperAirSummary ||
+                    displayedUpperAirMetrics.length > 0 ? (
                      <>
                        <div className="future-subsection-title">
                          {locale === "en-US" ? "Upper-Air Structure" : "高空结构信号"}
                        </div>
-                        {view.front.upperAirSummary ? (
+                        {displayedUpperAirSummary ? (
                          <div className="future-trend-summary">
-                            {view.front.upperAirSummary}
+                            {displayedUpperAirSummary}
                          </div>
                        ) : null}
                        <div className="future-trend-grid">
-                          {(view.front.upperAirMetrics || []).map((metric) => (
+                          {displayedUpperAirMetrics.map((metric) => (
                            <div key={metric.label} className="future-trend-card">
                              <div className="future-trend-label">{metric.label}</div>
                              <div
@@ -30,6 +30,10 @@ function isEnglish(locale: Locale) {
  return locale === "en-US";
 }

+function containsCjk(text: string) {
+  return /[\u3400-\u9fff]/.test(text);
+}
+
 function getObservationSourceCode(detail: CityDetail): string {
  const source = String(detail.current?.settlement_source || "")
    .trim()
@@ -580,6 +584,34 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal(
  locale: Locale = "zh-CN",
 ) {
  const upperAirSignal = detail.vertical_profile_signal || {};
+  const upperAirTradeCue = upperAirSignal.source
+    ? upperAirSignal.heating_setup === "supportive"
+      ? {
+          label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Trade cue" : "交易动作",
+          note: isEnglish(locale)
+            ? "Do not fade lower buckets too early."
+            : "不宜过早做更低温区间。",
+          tone: "warm",
+          value: isEnglish(locale) ? "Lean warmer" : "偏暖侧",
+        }
+      : upperAirSignal.heating_setup === "suppressed"
+        ? {
+            label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Trade cue" : "交易动作",
+            note: isEnglish(locale)
+              ? "Be more careful chasing higher buckets."
+              : "追更高温区间要更谨慎。",
+            tone: "cold",
+            value: isEnglish(locale) ? "Lean cautious" : "偏谨慎",
+          }
+        : {
+            label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Trade cue" : "交易动作",
+            note: isEnglish(locale)
+              ? "Let surface structure and market price action decide first."
+              : "先看近地面结构和盘口变化，不急着站边。",
+            tone: "",
+            value: isEnglish(locale) ? "Wait / confirm" : "先观察",
+          }
+    : null;
  const upperAirSummary = upperAirSignal.source
    ? (() => {
        const hasMetrics =
@@ -609,6 +641,7 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal(
    : "";
  const upperAirMetrics = upperAirSignal.source
    ? [
+        ...(upperAirTradeCue ? [upperAirTradeCue] : []),
        {
          label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Peak setup" : "冲高环境",
          note:
@@ -731,15 +764,23 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal(
        },
      ]
    : [];
-  const backendSummary =
+  const rawBackendSummary =
    dateStr === detail.local_date
      ? String(detail.dynamic_commentary?.summary || "").trim()
      : "";
-  const backendNotes = Array.isArray(detail.dynamic_commentary?.notes)
+  const backendSummary =
+    rawBackendSummary &&
+    (!isEnglish(locale) || !containsCjk(rawBackendSummary))
+      ? rawBackendSummary
+      : "";
+  const rawBackendNotes = Array.isArray(detail.dynamic_commentary?.notes)
    ? detail.dynamic_commentary?.notes
        ?.map((item) => String(item || "").trim())
        .filter(Boolean) || []
    : [];
+  const backendNotes = rawBackendNotes.filter(
+    (note) => !isEnglish(locale) || !containsCjk(note),
+  );
  const slice = getFutureSlice(detail, dateStr);
  const currentTemp = Number(detail.current?.temp);
  const currentDew = Number(detail.current?.dewpoint);
@@ -807,8 +848,21 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal(
  const isTargetToday = dateStr === detail.local_date;
  const currentHm = normalizeHm(detail.local_time);
  const sunsetHm = normalizeHm(detail.forecast?.sunset);
+  const peakFirstHour = Number(detail.peak?.first_h);
+  const peakLastHour = Number(detail.peak?.last_h);
+  const hasPeakWindow =
+    Number.isFinite(peakFirstHour) &&
+    Number.isFinite(peakLastHour) &&
+    peakFirstHour >= 0 &&
+    peakLastHour >= peakFirstHour;
  const currentMinutes = hmToMinutes(currentHm);
  const sunsetMinutes = hmToMinutes(sunsetHm);
+  const peakWindowStartMinutes = hasPeakWindow
+    ? Math.max(0, (peakFirstHour - 2) * 60)
+    : null;
+  const peakWindowEndMinutes = hasPeakWindow
+    ? Math.min(23 * 60 + 59, (peakLastHour + 1) * 60)
+    : null;
  const canUseSunsetWindow =
    isTargetToday &&
    currentMinutes !== null &&
@@ -829,24 +883,42 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal(
          return minutes === null ? false : minutes <= sunsetMinutes;
        })
      : futureSlice;
+  const aroundPeakSlice =
+    isTargetToday &&
+    peakWindowStartMinutes !== null &&
+    peakWindowEndMinutes !== null
+      ? futureSlice.filter((point) => {
+          const minutes = pointMinutes(point);
+          return minutes === null
+            ? false
+            : minutes >= peakWindowStartMinutes && minutes <= peakWindowEndMinutes;
+        })
+      : [];
  const workingSlice =
-    untilSunsetSlice.length >= 2
+    aroundPeakSlice.length >= 2
+      ? aroundPeakSlice
+      : untilSunsetSlice.length >= 2
      ? untilSunsetSlice
      : futureSlice.length >= 2
        ? futureSlice
        : slice;
+  const usingPeakWindow = aroundPeakSlice.length >= 2;
  const usingSunsetWindow = canUseSunsetWindow && untilSunsetSlice.length >= 2;
  const first = workingSlice[0] || slice[0];
  const last = workingSlice[workingSlice.length - 1] || slice[slice.length - 1];
  const effectiveHours = Math.max(1, workingSlice.length);
  const windowLabel = `${first?.label || "--"}-${last?.label || "--"}`;
  const windowText = isEnglish(locale)
-    ? usingSunsetWindow
+    ? usingPeakWindow
+      ? `today ${windowLabel} (~${effectiveHours}h, around peak window)`
+      : usingSunsetWindow
      ? `today ${windowLabel} (~${effectiveHours}h, now -> sunset)`
      : isTargetToday
        ? `today ${windowLabel} (~${effectiveHours}h)`
        : `daily ${windowLabel} (~${effectiveHours}h)`
-    : usingSunsetWindow
+    : usingPeakWindow
+      ? `今日 ${windowLabel}（约 ${effectiveHours} 小时，围绕峰值窗口）`
+      : usingSunsetWindow
      ? `今日 ${windowLabel}（约 ${effectiveHours} 小时，当前至日落）`
      : isTargetToday
        ? `今日 ${windowLabel}（约 ${effectiveHours} 小时）`
@@ -43,13 +43,15 @@ def _build_vertical_profile_signal(
    hourly_next_48h: Dict[str, list],
    local_date: str,
    local_hour: int,
+    first_peak_h: int,
+    last_peak_h: int,
 ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
    times = hourly_next_48h.get("times") or []
    if not times:
        return {}

-    preferred_start = max(local_hour, 12)
-    preferred_end = 19
+    preferred_start = max(local_hour, max(0, first_peak_h - 2))
+    preferred_end = min(23, last_peak_h + 1)
    candidate_indexes = [
        index
        for index, ts in enumerate(times)
@@ -766,6 +768,8 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        next_48h_hourly,
        local_date_str,
        local_hour,
+        first_peak_h,
+        last_peak_h,
    )

    # ── 13. Cloud description (METAR primary, MGM fallback) ──