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Finalize SQLite defaults and refresh calibration artifacts

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This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-04-02 23:24:38 +08:00
parent 603546f2f9
commit 95c0c452f1
19 changed files with 1055 additions and 2442 deletions
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artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
+45 -129
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@@ -1,20 +1,20 @@
{
"version": "emos-20260320132525",
"trained_at": "2026-03-20T13:25:25.836021+00:00",
"version": "emos-20260402151301",
"trained_at": "2026-04-02T15:13:01.073253+00:00",
"global": {
"mu": {
"intercept": -1.57406048,
"raw_mu_coef": 2.80583627,
"deb_coef": -0.06819634,
"ens_median_coef": -1.81560215,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0
"intercept": 1.52725527,
"raw_mu_coef": 2.96318139,
"deb_coef": -1.54490032,
"ens_median_coef": -0.71820793,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": 10.22802132
},
"sigma": {
"intercept": 0.67509915,
"raw_sigma_coef": 0.14431833,
"spread_coef": 0.14431833,
"peak_flag_coef": 0.0,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0
"intercept": 0.67227661,
"raw_sigma_coef": 0.69444674,
"spread_coef": 0.09134583,
"peak_flag_coef": -0.58201761,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.81482466
}
},
"sigma_constraints": {
@@ -30,143 +30,59 @@
},
"blending": {
"alpha_mu": 0.0,
"alpha_sigma": 0.0
"alpha_sigma": 0.45
},
"cities": {
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"mu_bias": 0.566273,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.875
},
"london": {
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"mu_bias": 0.489961,
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},
"new york": {
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},
"paris": {
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"mu_bias": 0.308599,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.875
},
"seoul": {
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"mu_bias": -1.486024,
"sigma_scale": 1.569585,
"confidence": 0.75
},
"toronto": {
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"mu_bias": -0.734395,
"sigma_scale": 1.656751,
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},
"buenos aires": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
"dallas": {
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},
"miami": {
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},
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},
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"lucknow": {
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},
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},
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},
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"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238,
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"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.537037,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.853485,
"selected_score": 6.027262,
"legacy_score": 6.127879,
"filled_actual_from_history": 2,
"settlement_history_city_count": 30
},
artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json
+135 -126
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@@ -1,190 +1,199 @@
{
"summary": {
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"sample_count": 54,
"filled_actual_from_history": 2,
"legacy": {
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},
"emos": {
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"bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238
"mean_crps": 4.201116,
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},
"delta": {
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"crps": -0.085901,
"mae": 0.0,
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},
"by_city": {
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},
"atlanta": {
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},
"chicago": {
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},
"london": {
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},
"lucknow": {
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},
"madrid": {
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},
"seoul": {
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"legacy_mean_mae": 0.2,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
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},
"shanghai": {
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"legacy_mean_mae": 0.15,
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"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.299116,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.394855,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"shenzhen": {
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"emos_mean_crps": 0.073016,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.1,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"singapore": {
"samples": 2,
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"emos_mean_crps": 0.37264,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.15,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
@@ -193,16 +202,16 @@
"taipei": {
"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.356996,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.356996,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.472738,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.1,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
},
"tel aviv": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.446758,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.446758,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.578006,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.3,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.3,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
@@ -211,36 +220,36 @@
"tokyo": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.450128,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.450128,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.582151,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.25,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"toronto": {
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"legacy_mean_crps": 2.647861,
"emos_mean_crps": 2.566068,
"legacy_mean_mae": 2.532,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
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"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 5.497916,
"emos_mean_crps": 5.240552,
"legacy_mean_mae": 6.33,
"emos_mean_mae": 6.33,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"warsaw": {
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"legacy_mean_crps": 1.618875,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.618875,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.553232,
"legacy_mean_mae": 2.056667,
"emos_mean_mae": 2.056667,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333
},
"wellington": {
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"legacy_mean_crps": 0.266349,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.266349,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.2,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.2,
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.364919,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.475875,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.15,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.15,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
}
artifacts/probability_calibration/shadow_report.json
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artifacts/probability_calibration/training_samples.json
+469 -1131
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