feat: implement shock_score (wind/cloud/pressure) as soft sigma amplifier

bot_listener.py

@@ -161,6 +161,48 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name=None):
                 if hist_mae > sigma:
                     sigma = hist_mae
         
+        # === Shock Score: 气象突变软评分 (0~1) ===
+        # 用近 4 条 METAR 的风向/云量/气压变化评估环境稳定性
+        # 越高 = 越不稳定 = σ 放宽
+        shock_score = 0.0
+        recent_obs = metar.get("recent_obs", [])
+        if len(recent_obs) >= 2:
+            oldest = recent_obs[-1]  # 最早
+            newest = recent_obs[0]   # 最新
+            
+            # ① 风向变化项 (0~0.4)
+            # 角度差 × 风速放大系数（风速 > 10kt 时权重高，弱风忽略噪声）
+            wdir_old = oldest.get("wdir")
+            wdir_new = newest.get("wdir")
+            wspd_new = newest.get("wspd") or 0
+            if wdir_old is not None and wdir_new is not None:
+                angle_diff = abs(wdir_new - wdir_old)
+                if angle_diff > 180: angle_diff = 360 - angle_diff
+                wind_weight = min(wspd_new / 15.0, 1.0)  # 15kt 以上满权
+                wind_shock = min(angle_diff / 90.0, 1.0) * wind_weight * 0.4
+                shock_score += wind_shock
+            
+            # ② 云量阶跃项 (0~0.35)
+            # CLR=0, FEW=1, SCT=2, BKN=3, OVC=4
+            cloud_old = oldest.get("cloud_rank", 0)
+            cloud_new = newest.get("cloud_rank", 0)
+            cloud_jump = abs(cloud_new - cloud_old)
+            cloud_shock = min(cloud_jump / 3.0, 1.0) * 0.35
+            shock_score += cloud_shock
+            
+            # ③ 气压变化项 (0~0.25)
+            # 2h 内气压变化超过 2hPa 视为异常
+            altim_old = oldest.get("altim")
+            altim_new = newest.get("altim")
+            if altim_old is not None and altim_new is not None:
+                press_diff = abs(altim_new - altim_old)
+                press_shock = min(press_diff / 4.0, 1.0) * 0.25
+                shock_score += press_shock
+        
+        # 应用 shock_score: 放宽 σ
+        if shock_score > 0.05:
+            sigma *= (1 + 0.5 * shock_score)
+        
         # 时间修正：根据当前时间距峰值的位置调整 σ
         # 峰值前：σ 不变（不确定性最大）
         # 峰值窗口内：σ 缩小 30%（正在定型）

src/data_collection/weather_sources.py

@@ -309,15 +309,31 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
                 except:
                     continue
 
-            # 3. 提取最近 4 条报文的温度（用于趋势分析）
+            # 3. 提取最近 4 条报文的多维数据（温度 + 风/云/压强，用于趋势和 shock_score）
             recent_temps_raw = []  # [(local_time_str, temp_c), ...]
+            recent_obs_raw = []    # [{time, temp, wdir, wspd, clouds, altim}, ...]
             for obs in data[:4]:  # data 已按时间倒序
                 obs_temp = obs.get("temp")
-                if obs_temp is not None:
-                    obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs)
-                    if obs_dt_iter:
-                        local_rt = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset)
-                        recent_temps_raw.append((local_rt.strftime("%H:%M"), obs_temp))
+                obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs)
+                if obs_temp is not None and obs_dt_iter:
+                    local_rt = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset)
+                    recent_temps_raw.append((local_rt.strftime("%H:%M"), obs_temp))
+                    # 云量码映射: CLR=0, FEW=1, SCT=2, BKN=3, OVC=4
+                    cloud_rank_map = {"CLR": 0, "SKC": 0, "FEW": 1, "SCT": 2, "BKN": 3, "OVC": 4}
+                    clouds = obs.get("clouds", [])
+                    max_cloud_rank = 0
+                    for c in clouds:
+                        rank = cloud_rank_map.get(c.get("cover", ""), 0)
+                        if rank > max_cloud_rank:
+                            max_cloud_rank = rank
+                    recent_obs_raw.append({
+                        "time": local_rt.strftime("%H:%M"),
+                        "temp": obs_temp,
+                        "wdir": obs.get("wdir"),
+                        "wspd": obs.get("wspd"),
+                        "cloud_rank": max_cloud_rank,  # 0~4
+                        "altim": obs.get("altim"),
+                    })
 
             # 转换为单位
             if use_fahrenheit:
@@ -354,6 +370,7 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
                     "clouds": latest.get("clouds", []),
                 },
                 "recent_temps": recent_temps,  # 最近4条: [("15:00", 5), ("14:20", 5), ...]
+                "recent_obs": recent_obs_raw,  # 最近4条多维数据（风/云/压强）
                 "unit": unit,
             }