Add history model context and widen signal push window

2026-04-17 19:49:01 +08:00
parent ce7a037b6d
commit 449eb48d8b
8 changed files with 380 additions and 11 deletions
@@ -88,6 +88,9 @@ TELEGRAM_ALERT_MISPRICING_INTERVAL_SEC=7200
 TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_DIGEST_ENABLED=true
 TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_DIGEST_INTERVAL_SEC=1800
 TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_DIGEST_TOP_N=5
+TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_START_LOCAL_HOUR=8
+TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_BEFORE_PEAK_MIN=480
+TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_AFTER_PEAK_MIN=300
 TELEGRAM_ALERT_CITIES=ankara,london,paris,seoul,hong kong,shanghai,singapore,tokyo,tel aviv,toronto,buenos aires,wellington,new york,chicago,dallas,miami,atlanta,seattle,lucknow,sao paulo,munich
 POLYWEATHER_MONITORING_ALERT_CHAT_IDS=

@@ -2769,6 +2769,14 @@
  background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.42);
 }

+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference) {
+  margin-top: 18px;
+  padding: 14px 16px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(34, 211, 238, 0.18);
+  border-radius: 16px;
+  background: rgba(8, 47, 73, 0.2);
+}
+
 .root :global(.history-modal .history-peak-reference-title) {
  color: var(--text-primary);
  font-size: 14px;
@@ -2776,6 +2784,16 @@
  margin-bottom: 10px;
 }

+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-scroll) {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 8px;
+  max-height: 360px;
+  overflow-y: auto;
+  padding-right: 6px;
+  scrollbar-width: thin;
+  scrollbar-color: rgba(34, 211, 238, 0.5) rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.32);
+}
+
 .root :global(.history-modal .history-peak-reference-scroll) {
  display: grid;
  gap: 8px;
@@ -2820,12 +2838,69 @@
  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.03);
 }

+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-row) {
+  display: grid;
+  grid-template-columns: minmax(72px, 88px) 1fr;
+  gap: 10px;
+  padding: 10px 12px;
+  border-radius: 12px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.03);
+}
+
 .root :global(.history-modal .history-peak-reference-date) {
  color: var(--text-secondary);
  font-size: 12px;
  font-weight: 700;
 }

+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-body) {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 8px;
+  min-width: 0;
+}
+
+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-summary) {
+  display: flex;
+  flex-wrap: wrap;
+  gap: 10px 14px;
+  color: var(--text-secondary);
+  font-size: 12px;
+}
+
+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-summary strong) {
+  color: var(--text-primary);
+}
+
+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-models) {
+  display: grid;
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  gap: 6px;
+}
+
+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-model) {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 3px;
+  min-width: 0;
+  padding: 8px 10px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.12);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.38);
+  color: var(--text-secondary);
+  font-size: 11px;
+}
+
+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-name) {
+  overflow: hidden;
+  color: var(--accent-cyan);
+  font-weight: 700;
+  text-overflow: ellipsis;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.root :global(.history-modal .history-model-error) {
+  color: var(--text-muted);
+}
+
 .root :global(.history-modal .history-peak-reference-meta) {
  color: var(--text-secondary);
  font-size: 12px;
@@ -2857,6 +2932,14 @@
  .root :global(.history-modal .history-peak-reference-scroll) {
    max-height: 320px;
  }
+
+  .root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-scroll) {
+    max-height: 320px;
+  }
+
+  .root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-models) {
+    grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  }
 }

@media (max-width: 640px) {
@@ -2921,15 +3004,33 @@
    padding: 12px;
  }

+  .root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference) {
+    padding: 12px;
+  }
+
  .root :global(.history-modal .history-peak-reference-scroll) {
    max-height: 260px;
    padding-right: 2px;
  }

+  .root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-scroll) {
+    max-height: 260px;
+    padding-right: 2px;
+  }
+
  .root :global(.history-modal .history-peak-reference-row) {
    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
    gap: 6px;
  }
+
+  .root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-row) {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+    gap: 6px;
+  }
+
+  .root :global(.history-modal .history-model-reference-models) {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+  }
 }

 /* ── Info Button ── */
@@ -199,6 +199,19 @@ export function HistoryModal() {
        .reverse(),
    [summary.recentData],
  );
+  const modelReferenceRows = useMemo(
+    () =>
+      summary.recentData
+        .filter(
+          (row) =>
+            row.actual != null &&
+            row.model_reference?.available &&
+            (row.model_reference.models?.length || 0) > 0,
+        )
+        .slice(-5)
+        .reverse(),
+    [summary.recentData],
+  );

  if (!isOpen) return null;

@@ -383,6 +396,81 @@ export function HistoryModal() {
                  )}
                </div>
                {!error && <HistoryChart />}
+                {!error && modelReferenceRows.length > 0 && (
+              <div className="history-model-reference">
+                <div className="modal-section-heading">
+                  <div className="modal-section-kicker">
+                    {locale === "en-US" ? "Reference layer" : "参考层"}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="history-peak-reference-title">
+                    {locale === "en-US"
+                      ? "Model Reference at Cutoff"
+                      : "当时模型参考"}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="modal-section-note">
+                    {locale === "en-US"
+                      ? "These are archived model snapshots used for audit context. Settlement truth still comes only from the finalized observation source."
+                      : "这里展示当时归档的模型快照，仅用于解释判断背景；结算真值仍只来自最终实况来源。"}
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+                <div className="history-model-reference-scroll">
+                  {modelReferenceRows.map((row) => {
+                    const models = (row.model_reference?.models || []).slice(0, 6);
+                    return (
+                      <div key={row.date} className="history-model-reference-row">
+                        <div className="history-peak-reference-date">
+                          {row.date}
+                        </div>
+                        <div className="history-model-reference-body">
+                          <div className="history-model-reference-summary">
+                            <span>
+                              {locale === "en-US" ? "Actual" : "最终实测"}{" "}
+                              <strong>
+                                {row.actual}
+                                {store.selectedDetail?.temp_symbol || "°C"}
+                              </strong>
+                            </span>
+                            <span>
+                              DEB{" "}
+                              <strong>
+                                {row.model_reference?.deb?.value ?? row.deb ?? "--"}
+                                {store.selectedDetail?.temp_symbol || "°C"}
+                              </strong>
+                              {row.model_reference?.deb?.error != null
+                                ? ` / ${locale === "en-US" ? "err" : "误差"} ${row.model_reference.deb.error}${store.selectedDetail?.temp_symbol || "°C"}`
+                                : ""}
+                            </span>
+                          </div>
+                          <div className="history-model-reference-models">
+                            {models.map((model) => (
+                              <div
+                                key={`${row.date}-${model.model}`}
+                                className="history-model-reference-model"
+                              >
+                                <span className="history-model-name">
+                                  {model.model}
+                                </span>
+                                <span>
+                                  {model.value}
+                                  {store.selectedDetail?.temp_symbol || "°C"}
+                                </span>
+                                <span className="history-model-error">
+                                  {model.error != null
+                                    ? `${locale === "en-US" ? "err" : "误差"} ${model.error}${store.selectedDetail?.temp_symbol || "°C"}`
+                                    : locale === "en-US"
+                                      ? "pending"
+                                      : "待结算"}
+                                </span>
+                              </div>
+                            ))}
+                          </div>
+                        </div>
+                      </div>
+                    );
+                  })}
+                </div>
+              </div>
+                )}
                {!error && settledPeakRows.length > 0 && (
              <div className="history-peak-reference">
                <div className="modal-section-heading">
@@ -527,6 +527,22 @@ export interface HistoryPoint {
  mu?: number | null;
  mgm?: number | null;
  forecasts?: Record<string, number | null>;
+  model_reference?: {
+    available?: boolean;
+    truth_layer?: string | null;
+    reference_layer?: string | null;
+    deb?: {
+      value?: number | null;
+      error?: number | null;
+    };
+    models?: Array<{
+      model?: string | null;
+      value?: number | null;
+      error?: number | null;
+      participates_in_deb?: boolean;
+    }>;
+    model_count?: number | null;
+  };
  settlement_source?: string | null;
  settlement_station_code?: string | null;
  settlement_station_label?: string | null;
@@ -162,10 +162,24 @@ class StartupCoordinator:
            "cities_count": cities_count,
            "chat_targets": len(chat_ids),
            "focus_digest_enabled": _env_bool("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_DIGEST_ENABLED", True),
-            "focus_digest_hours": str(
-                os.getenv("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_DIGEST_HOURS") or "11,18"
-            ).strip(),
-            "schedule_basis": "server_local_time",
+            "focus_digest_interval_sec": max(
+                300,
+                _env_int("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_DIGEST_INTERVAL_SEC", 1800),
+            ),
+            "focus_push_start_local_hour": min(
+                23,
+                max(0, _env_int("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_START_LOCAL_HOUR", 8)),
+            ),
+            "focus_push_before_peak_min": max(
+                0,
+                _env_int("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_BEFORE_PEAK_MIN", 480),
+            ),
+            "focus_push_after_peak_min": max(
+                0,
+                _env_int("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_AFTER_PEAK_MIN", 300),
+            ),
+            "schedule_basis": "city_local_time_for_push_window",
+            "daily_signal_cap": "none",
        }
        validation_error = None if chat_ids else "missing_TELEGRAM_CHAT_IDS"
        return self._start_with_validation(
@@ -317,6 +317,32 @@ def _format_interval_brief(seconds: int) -> str:
    return f"{total}秒"


+def _focus_push_window_config() -> Dict[str, int]:
+    return {
+        "start_local_hour": min(
+            23,
+            max(0, _env_int("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_START_LOCAL_HOUR", 8)),
+        ),
+        "before_peak_min": max(
+            0,
+            _env_int("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_BEFORE_PEAK_MIN", 480),
+        ),
+        "after_peak_min": max(
+            0,
+            _env_int("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_AFTER_PEAK_MIN", 300),
+        ),
+    }
+
+
+def _focus_push_window_label() -> str:
+    config = _focus_push_window_config()
+    return (
+        f"当地 {config['start_local_hour']:02d}:00 后，"
+        f"峰值前 {_format_minutes_window(config['before_peak_min'])} / "
+        f"峰值后 {_format_minutes_window(config['after_peak_min'])} 内"
+    )
+
+
 def _local_peak_context(alert_payload: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
    evidence = alert_payload.get("evidence") or {}
    generated_local_time = str(evidence.get("generated_local_time") or "").strip()
@@ -456,15 +482,16 @@ def _shortlist_focus_payloads(
        if not _market_price_cap_ok(item, require_actionable_quote=True):
            continue
        if for_push:
+            window_config = _focus_push_window_config()
            peak_context = _local_peak_context(item)
            local_min = _minute_of_day(peak_context.get("local_time"))
            minutes_to_peak = peak_context.get("minutes_to_peak")
-            if local_min is not None and local_min < 9 * 60:
+            if local_min is not None and local_min < window_config["start_local_hour"] * 60:
                continue
-            if isinstance(minutes_to_peak, int | float):
-                if minutes_to_peak > 360:
+            if isinstance(minutes_to_peak, (int, float)):
+                if minutes_to_peak > window_config["before_peak_min"]:
                    continue
-                if minutes_to_peak < -90:
+                if minutes_to_peak < -window_config["after_peak_min"]:
                    continue
        shortlisted.append(item)
        if len(shortlisted) >= top_n:
@@ -542,6 +569,8 @@ def _build_focus_digest_message(
    frequency_parts = [
        f"后台扫描：约每{scan_interval}一次",
        f"主动推送：约每{digest_interval}一次",
+        f"观察窗口：{_focus_push_window_label()}",
+        "没有每日信号次数上限",
    ]
    lines.append("更新频率：" + "；".join(frequency_parts))
    return "\n".join(lines).strip()
@@ -576,17 +605,20 @@ def _maybe_send_focus_digest(
        if bool((item.get("market_snapshot") or {}).get("available"))
        and _market_price_cap_ok(item, require_actionable_quote=True)
    )
-    shortlisted = _shortlist_focus_payloads(payloads, top_n=top_n)
+    shortlisted = _shortlist_focus_payloads(payloads, top_n=top_n, for_push=True)
+    reference_shortlisted = _shortlist_focus_payloads(payloads, top_n=top_n, for_push=False)
    high_priority_count = sum(1 for item in shortlisted if _market_monitor_score(item) >= 72)
    logger.info(
-        "market focus digest evaluate payloads={} available={} actionable={} shortlisted={} high_priority={} interval_sec={} top_n={}",
+        "market focus digest evaluate payloads={} available={} actionable={} shortlisted={} reference_shortlisted={} high_priority={} interval_sec={} top_n={} push_window={}",
        len(payloads),
        available_count,
        actionable_count,
        len(shortlisted),
+        len(reference_shortlisted),
        high_priority_count,
        digest_interval_sec,
        top_n,
+        _focus_push_window_label(),
    )
    if last_digest_ts and now_ts - last_digest_ts < digest_interval_sec:
        logger.info(
@@ -1,5 +1,9 @@
 from src.analysis.market_alert_engine import build_trading_alerts
-from src.utils.telegram_push import build_market_monitor_digest
+from src.utils.telegram_push import (
+    _build_focus_digest_message,
+    _shortlist_focus_payloads,
+    build_market_monitor_digest,
+)


 def _sample_weather_payload():
@@ -195,3 +199,62 @@ def test_market_monitor_digest_skips_non_tradable_market(monkeypatch):

    digest = build_market_monitor_digest({}, slot_label="当前市场概览")
    assert digest == "ℹ️ 当前没有可用的市场监控摘要。"
+
+
+def _focus_payload(*, local_time: str = "14:00", peak_time: str = "12:00"):
+    return {
+        "city": "madrid",
+        "severity": "medium",
+        "trigger_count": 1,
+        "rules": {},
+        "market_snapshot": {
+            "available": True,
+            "forecast_bucket": {
+                "label": "30°C",
+                "value": 30,
+                "yes_buy": 0.18,
+                "market_url": "https://example.com/market",
+            },
+            "market_url": "https://example.com/market",
+            "confidence": "medium",
+            "edge_percent": 5.0,
+        },
+        "evidence": {
+            "generated_local_time": local_time,
+            "inputs": {
+                "current_temp": 29.0,
+                "deb_prediction": 30.2,
+            },
+            "trigger_summary": {
+                "suppression_snapshot": {
+                    "max_temp_time": peak_time,
+                },
+            },
+        },
+    }
+
+
+def test_focus_digest_push_window_does_not_cut_off_after_2pm_spanish_time(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.delenv("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_PUSH_AFTER_PEAK_MIN", raising=False)
+
+    shortlisted = _shortlist_focus_payloads(
+        [_focus_payload(local_time="14:00", peak_time="12:00")],
+        top_n=5,
+        for_push=True,
+    )
+
+    assert len(shortlisted) == 1
+
+
+def test_focus_digest_footer_explains_no_daily_signal_cap(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setenv("TELEGRAM_ALERT_PUSH_INTERVAL_SEC", "300")
+    monkeypatch.setenv("TELEGRAM_MARKET_FOCUS_DIGEST_INTERVAL_SEC", "1800")
+
+    message = _build_focus_digest_message(
+        [_focus_payload(local_time="14:00", peak_time="12:00")],
+        slot_label="白天关注",
+        top_n=5,
+    )
+
+    assert "没有每日信号次数上限" in message
+    assert "观察窗口" in message
@@ -203,6 +203,52 @@ def _refresh_city_market_cache(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> dict:
    return payload


+def _build_history_model_reference(
+    *,
+    forecasts: dict,
+    actual: object,
+    deb: object,
+) -> dict:
+    """Expose the archived model snapshot as reference evidence, not truth."""
+    actual_value = _sf(actual)
+    deb_value = _sf(deb)
+    entries = []
+    for model_name, model_value in (forecasts or {}).items():
+        if _is_excluded_model_name(str(model_name)):
+            continue
+        value = _sf(model_value)
+        if value is None:
+            continue
+        error = abs(value - actual_value) if actual_value is not None else None
+        entries.append(
+            {
+                "model": str(model_name),
+                "value": round(value, 1),
+                "error": round(error, 1) if error is not None else None,
+                "participates_in_deb": True,
+            }
+        )
+    entries.sort(
+        key=lambda row: (
+            row["error"] is None,
+            row["error"] if row["error"] is not None else 999,
+            row["model"],
+        )
+    )
+    deb_error = abs(deb_value - actual_value) if deb_value is not None and actual_value is not None else None
+    return {
+        "available": bool(entries),
+        "truth_layer": "settlement_actual",
+        "reference_layer": "archived_model_snapshot",
+        "deb": {
+            "value": round(deb_value, 1) if deb_value is not None else None,
+            "error": round(deb_error, 1) if deb_error is not None else None,
+        },
+        "models": entries,
+        "model_count": len(entries),
+    }
+
+
 def _build_city_history_payload(city: str, include_records: bool = False) -> dict:
    source = str(CITIES.get(city, {}).get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower()
    truth_rows = _truth_record_repo.load_city(city)
@@ -276,6 +322,11 @@ def _build_city_history_payload(city: str, include_records: bool = False) -> dic
            forecasts,
            snapshots,
        )
+        model_reference = _build_history_model_reference(
+            forecasts=forecasts,
+            actual=act,
+            deb=deb,
+        )
        mgm = forecasts.get("MGM")
        out.append(
            {
@@ -285,6 +336,7 @@ def _build_city_history_payload(city: str, include_records: bool = False) -> dic
                "mu": float(mu) if mu is not None else None,
                "mgm": float(mgm) if mgm is not None else None,
                "forecasts": forecasts,
+                "model_reference": model_reference,
                "settlement_source": rec.get("settlement_source"),
                "settlement_station_code": rec.get("settlement_station_code"),
                "settlement_station_label": rec.get("settlement_station_label"),