Add DEB city trust tiers

2026-06-07 23:32:23 +08:00
parent c3f9b974c3
commit 4389d4a40d
5 changed files with 280 additions and 10 deletions
@@ -56,10 +56,20 @@ type DebSummaryPayload = {
  versions?: Record<string, DebVersionSummary>;
 };

+type DebRecentStrategy = {
+  recent_7d?: DebWindowSummary;
+  recent_14d?: DebWindowSummary;
+  trust_tier?: "high" | "medium" | "low" | "insufficient" | string;
+  recommendation?: "primary" | "supporting" | "context_only" | "insufficient" | string;
+  bias_direction?: "under" | "over" | "neutral" | "unknown" | string;
+  reason?: string;
+};
+
 type TrainingCity = {
  city_id: string;
  name: string;
  deb?: MetricPayload;
+  deb_recent?: DebRecentStrategy | null;
  mu?: MetricPayload;
 };

@@ -87,6 +97,27 @@ function barColor(hr: number) {
  return "#dc2626";
 }

+function trustBadgeClass(tier?: string) {
+  if (tier === "high") return "border-emerald-200 bg-emerald-50 text-emerald-700";
+  if (tier === "medium") return "border-amber-200 bg-amber-50 text-amber-700";
+  if (tier === "low") return "border-rose-200 bg-rose-50 text-rose-700";
+  return "border-slate-200 bg-slate-50 text-slate-500";
+}
+
+function trustLabel(tier: string | undefined, isEn: boolean) {
+  if (tier === "high") return isEn ? "High" : "高";
+  if (tier === "medium") return isEn ? "Medium" : "中";
+  if (tier === "low") return isEn ? "Low" : "低";
+  return isEn ? "Thin" : "少";
+}
+
+function recommendationLabel(value: string | undefined, isEn: boolean) {
+  if (value === "primary") return isEn ? "Primary" : "主用";
+  if (value === "supporting") return isEn ? "Support" : "辅助";
+  if (value === "context_only") return isEn ? "Context" : "参考";
+  return isEn ? "Insufficient" : "样本少";
+}
+
 const TRAINING_CACHE_KEY = "polyweather_training_accuracy_v1";
 const TRAINING_CACHE_TTL_MS = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 24 hours

@@ -322,12 +353,15 @@ export function TrainingDashboard({ isEn }: { isEn: boolean }) {
        )}

        {/* ── Combined Table ── */}
-        <div className="rounded-lg border border-slate-200 bg-white overflow-hidden">
-          <table className="w-full text-[12px] border-collapse">
+        <div className="overflow-x-auto rounded-lg border border-slate-200 bg-white">
+          <table className="min-w-[960px] w-full text-[12px] border-collapse">
            <thead>
              <tr className="border-b border-slate-200 bg-[#f8f9fa] text-left">
                <th className="w-10 px-3 py-2 text-center text-[11px] font-black text-slate-400">#</th>
                <th className="px-3 py-2 text-[11px] font-black uppercase text-slate-500">{isEn ? "City" : "城市"}</th>
+                <th className="px-2 py-2 text-left text-[11px] font-black uppercase text-slate-500">{isEn ? "DEB Trust" : "DEB 信任"}</th>
+                <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right text-[11px] font-black uppercase text-slate-500">{isEn ? "7d" : "7天"}</th>
+                <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right text-[11px] font-black uppercase text-slate-500">{isEn ? "14d" : "14天"}</th>
                <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right text-[11px] font-black uppercase text-slate-500">{isEn ? "DEB Hit" : "DEB 命中"}</th>
                <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right text-[11px] font-black uppercase text-slate-500">{isEn ? "DEB Error" : "DEB 误差"}</th>
                <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right text-[11px] font-black uppercase text-slate-500">{isEn ? "μ Hit" : "μ 命中"}</th>
@@ -338,12 +372,12 @@ export function TrainingDashboard({ isEn }: { isEn: boolean }) {
            <tbody className="divide-y divide-slate-100">
              {debSorted.length || muSorted.length ? (
                (() => {
-                  const cities = new Map<string, { deb?: MetricPayload; mu?: MetricPayload; name: string }>();
-                  for (const c of debSorted) cities.set(c.city_id, { deb: c.deb, mu: c.mu, name: c.name });
+                  const cities = new Map<string, { deb?: MetricPayload; debRecent?: DebRecentStrategy | null; mu?: MetricPayload; name: string }>();
+                  for (const c of debSorted) cities.set(c.city_id, { deb: c.deb, debRecent: c.deb_recent, mu: c.mu, name: c.name });
                  for (const c of muSorted) {
                    const existing = cities.get(c.city_id);
                    if (existing) existing.mu = c.mu;
-                    else cities.set(c.city_id, { deb: c.deb, mu: c.mu, name: c.name });
+                    else cities.set(c.city_id, { deb: c.deb, debRecent: c.deb_recent, mu: c.mu, name: c.name });
                  }
                  const merged = [...cities.entries()]
                    .sort((a, b) => {
@@ -352,14 +386,30 @@ export function TrainingDashboard({ isEn }: { isEn: boolean }) {
                      return bMax - aMax;
                    })
                    .slice(0, 30);
-                  return merged.map(([cityId, { deb, mu, name }], i) => {
+                  return merged.map(([cityId, { deb, debRecent, mu, name }], i) => {
                    const debHit = deb?.hit_rate ?? 0;
                    const muHit = mu?.hit_rate ?? 0;
                    const brier = mu?.brier_score;
+                    const recent7 = debRecent?.recent_7d?.hit_rate;
+                    const recent14 = debRecent?.recent_14d?.hit_rate;
                    return (
                      <tr key={cityId} className="hover:bg-slate-50 transition-colors">
                        <td className="px-3 py-2 text-center text-[12px] font-mono text-slate-400">{i + 1}</td>
                        <td className="px-3 py-2 font-semibold text-slate-800 capitalize">{name}</td>
+                        <td className="px-2 py-2">
+                          {debRecent ? (
+                            <span
+                              className={`inline-flex min-w-[4rem] items-center justify-center rounded border px-2 py-0.5 text-[10px] font-black uppercase ${trustBadgeClass(debRecent.trust_tier)}`}
+                              title={debRecent.reason}
+                            >
+                              {trustLabel(debRecent.trust_tier, isEn)} · {recommendationLabel(debRecent.recommendation, isEn)}
+                            </span>
+                          ) : (
+                            <span className="text-slate-400">--</span>
+                          )}
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="px-2 py-2 text-right font-mono text-slate-600">{recent7 == null ? "--" : `${recent7.toFixed(0)}%`}</td>
+                        <td className="px-2 py-2 text-right font-mono text-slate-600">{recent14 == null ? "--" : `${recent14.toFixed(0)}%`}</td>
                        <td className="px-2 py-2 text-right font-mono font-bold" style={{ color: barColor(debHit) }}>
                          {deb ? `${debHit.toFixed(0)}%` : "--"}
                        </td>
@@ -375,7 +425,7 @@ export function TrainingDashboard({ isEn }: { isEn: boolean }) {
                })()
              ) : (
                <tr>
-                  <td colSpan={7} className="px-4 py-12 text-center text-slate-400">
+                  <td colSpan={10} className="px-4 py-12 text-center text-slate-400">
                    {data === null ? (isEn ? "Loading..." : "加载中...") : (isEn ? "No training data" : "暂无训练数据")}
                  </td>
                </tr>
@@ -56,6 +56,22 @@ interface CityAccuracy {
    total_days: number;
    details_str: string;
  } | null;
+  deb_recent?: {
+    recent_7d?: {
+      hit_rate?: number | null;
+      samples?: number;
+      mae?: number | null;
+    };
+    recent_14d?: {
+      hit_rate?: number | null;
+      samples?: number;
+      mae?: number | null;
+    };
+    trust_tier?: string;
+    recommendation?: string;
+    bias_direction?: string;
+    reason?: string;
+  } | null;
  mu?: {
    mae: number;
    hit_rate: number;
@@ -87,6 +103,31 @@ interface DebSummary {
  };
 }

+function debTrustBadgeClass(tier?: string) {
+  if (tier === "high") return "bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-300 border-emerald-500/30";
+  if (tier === "medium") return "bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-300 border-amber-500/30";
+  if (tier === "low") return "bg-rose-500/15 text-rose-300 border-rose-500/30";
+  return "bg-slate-500/15 text-slate-300 border-slate-500/30";
+}
+
+function debTrustLabel(tier?: string) {
+  if (tier === "high") return "高可信";
+  if (tier === "medium") return "中可信";
+  if (tier === "low") return "低可信";
+  return "样本少";
+}
+
+function debRecommendationLabel(recommendation?: string) {
+  if (recommendation === "primary") return "主用";
+  if (recommendation === "supporting") return "辅助";
+  if (recommendation === "context_only") return "仅参考";
+  return "不足";
+}
+
+function formatPct(value: number | null | undefined) {
+  return value == null ? "—" : `${value.toFixed(0)}%`;
+}
+
 export function TrainingPageClient() {
  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);
  const [status, setStatus] = useState<SystemStatusPayload | null>(null);
@@ -279,6 +320,8 @@ export function TrainingPageClient() {
              <thead className="text-xs uppercase bg-slate-800/50 text-slate-400">
                <tr>
                  <th scope="col" className="px-4 py-3">城市</th>
+                  <th scope="col" className="px-4 py-3 text-center">DEB 策略</th>
+                  <th scope="col" className="px-4 py-3 text-center">近 7 / 14 天</th>
                  <th scope="col" className="px-4 py-3 text-center">DEB 命中</th>
                  <th scope="col" className="px-4 py-3 text-center">DEB MAE</th>
                  <th scope="col" className="px-4 py-3 text-center">DEB 天数</th>
@@ -296,6 +339,29 @@ export function TrainingPageClient() {
                        {row.name}
                        <span className="text-xs text-slate-500 block font-mono">{row.city_id}</span>
                      </td>
+                      <td className="px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                        {row.deb_recent ? (
+                          <span
+                            title={row.deb_recent.reason}
+                            className={`inline-flex items-center rounded-full border px-2 py-0.5 text-xs font-semibold ${debTrustBadgeClass(row.deb_recent.trust_tier)}`}
+                          >
+                            {debTrustLabel(row.deb_recent.trust_tier)} · {debRecommendationLabel(row.deb_recent.recommendation)}
+                          </span>
+                        ) : (
+                          <span className="text-slate-600">—</span>
+                        )}
+                      </td>
+                      <td className="px-4 py-3 text-center font-mono text-xs text-slate-300">
+                        {row.deb_recent ? (
+                          <span>
+                            {formatPct(row.deb_recent.recent_7d?.hit_rate)}
+                            <span className="mx-1 text-slate-600">/</span>
+                            {formatPct(row.deb_recent.recent_14d?.hit_rate)}
+                          </span>
+                        ) : (
+                          "—"
+                        )}
+                      </td>
                      <td className="px-4 py-3 text-center">
                        {row.deb ? (
                          <span className={`px-2 py-0.5 rounded-full text-xs font-semibold ${
@@ -357,7 +423,7 @@ export function TrainingPageClient() {
                  ))
                ) : (
                  <tr>
-                    <td colSpan={8} className="px-4 py-8 text-center text-slate-500">
+                    <td colSpan={10} className="px-4 py-8 text-center text-slate-500">
                      无有效准确率记录
                    </td>
                  </tr>
@@ -157,6 +157,32 @@ export const opsApi = {
          hits?: number;
          details_str: string;
        } | null;
+        deb_recent?: {
+          recent_7d?: {
+            start_date?: string | null;
+            end_date?: string | null;
+            samples?: number;
+            hits?: number;
+            hit_rate?: number | null;
+            mae?: number | null;
+            bias?: number | null;
+            city_count?: number;
+          };
+          recent_14d?: {
+            start_date?: string | null;
+            end_date?: string | null;
+            samples?: number;
+            hits?: number;
+            hit_rate?: number | null;
+            mae?: number | null;
+            bias?: number | null;
+            city_count?: number;
+          };
+          trust_tier?: string;
+          recommendation?: string;
+          bias_direction?: string;
+          reason?: string;
+        } | null;
        mu?: {
          mae: number;
          hit_rate: number;
@@ -39,6 +39,56 @@ def test_training_accuracy_payload_includes_recent_deb_summary():
    assert "deb_v2_bucket_calibrated" in payload["deb_summary"]["versions"]


+def test_training_accuracy_payload_includes_city_deb_trust_strategy():
+    history = {
+        "alpha": {
+            "2026-06-01": {"actual_high": 20.0, "deb_prediction": 20.1},
+            "2026-06-02": {"actual_high": 21.0, "deb_prediction": 21.1},
+            "2026-06-03": {"actual_high": 22.0, "deb_prediction": 22.2},
+            "2026-06-04": {"actual_high": 23.0, "deb_prediction": 23.0},
+            "2026-06-05": {"actual_high": 24.0, "deb_prediction": 24.1},
+        },
+        "beta": {
+            "2026-06-01": {"actual_high": 30.0, "deb_prediction": 28.0},
+            "2026-06-02": {"actual_high": 31.0, "deb_prediction": 29.0},
+            "2026-06-03": {"actual_high": 32.0, "deb_prediction": 30.0},
+            "2026-06-04": {"actual_high": 33.0, "deb_prediction": 31.0},
+            "2026-06-05": {"actual_high": 34.0, "deb_prediction": 32.0},
+        },
+        "gamma": {
+            "2026-06-05": {"actual_high": 25.0, "deb_prediction": 25.1},
+        },
+    }
+    registry = {
+        "alpha": {"name": "Alpha"},
+        "beta": {"name": "Beta"},
+        "gamma": {"name": "Gamma"},
+    }
+
+    payload = _build_training_accuracy_payload(
+        history,
+        registry,
+        today_str="2026-06-07",
+    )
+
+    rows = {row["city_id"]: row for row in payload["accuracy"]}
+
+    assert rows["alpha"]["deb_recent"]["recent_7d"]["samples"] == 5
+    assert rows["alpha"]["deb_recent"]["recent_7d"]["hit_rate"] == 100.0
+    assert rows["alpha"]["deb_recent"]["trust_tier"] == "high"
+    assert rows["alpha"]["deb_recent"]["recommendation"] == "primary"
+    assert rows["alpha"]["deb_recent"]["bias_direction"] == "neutral"
+
+    assert rows["beta"]["deb_recent"]["recent_14d"]["samples"] == 5
+    assert rows["beta"]["deb_recent"]["trust_tier"] == "low"
+    assert rows["beta"]["deb_recent"]["recommendation"] == "context_only"
+    assert rows["beta"]["deb_recent"]["bias_direction"] == "under"
+    assert "recent_14d" in rows["beta"]["deb_recent"]["reason"]
+
+    assert rows["gamma"]["deb_recent"]["trust_tier"] == "insufficient"
+    assert rows["gamma"]["deb_recent"]["recommendation"] == "insufficient"
+
+
 def test_training_accuracy_payload_caps_version_backtest_samples(monkeypatch):
    start = date(2025, 1, 1)
    history = {
@@ -2280,8 +2280,12 @@ def _evaluate_deb_records(
    }


-def _build_city_deb_accuracy(city_id: str, city_rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]], today_str: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
-    rows = []
+def _build_city_deb_rows(
+    city_id: str,
+    city_rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]],
+    today_str: str,
+) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    rows: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
    for target_date, record in sorted((city_rows or {}).items()):
        if target_date >= today_str or not isinstance(record, dict):
            continue
@@ -2293,6 +2297,78 @@ def _build_city_deb_accuracy(city_id: str, city_rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]],
                "deb_prediction": record.get("deb_prediction"),
            }
        )
+    return rows
+
+
+def _deb_recent_bias_direction(bias: Optional[float]) -> str:
+    if bias is None:
+        return "unknown"
+    if bias <= -0.5:
+        return "under"
+    if bias >= 0.5:
+        return "over"
+    return "neutral"
+
+
+def _build_deb_recent_trust_strategy(
+    recent_7d: Dict[str, Any],
+    recent_14d: Dict[str, Any],
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    window_key = "recent_14d" if int(recent_14d.get("samples") or 0) >= int(recent_7d.get("samples") or 0) else "recent_7d"
+    metrics = recent_14d if window_key == "recent_14d" else recent_7d
+    samples = int(metrics.get("samples") or 0)
+    hit_rate = _sf(metrics.get("hit_rate"))
+    mae = _sf(metrics.get("mae"))
+    bias = _sf(metrics.get("bias"))
+
+    if samples < 3 or hit_rate is None or mae is None:
+        trust_tier = "insufficient"
+        recommendation = "insufficient"
+        reason = f"{window_key}: only {samples} settled DEB samples."
+    elif hit_rate >= 67.0 and mae <= 1.25:
+        trust_tier = "high"
+        recommendation = "primary"
+        reason = f"{window_key}: {hit_rate:.1f}% hit rate, MAE {mae:.2f}°."
+    elif hit_rate >= 34.0 and mae <= 1.75:
+        trust_tier = "medium"
+        recommendation = "supporting"
+        reason = f"{window_key}: {hit_rate:.1f}% hit rate, MAE {mae:.2f}°."
+    else:
+        trust_tier = "low"
+        recommendation = "context_only"
+        reason = f"{window_key}: {hit_rate:.1f}% hit rate, MAE {mae:.2f}°."
+
+    return {
+        "trust_tier": trust_tier,
+        "recommendation": recommendation,
+        "bias_direction": _deb_recent_bias_direction(bias),
+        "reason": reason,
+    }
+
+
+def _build_city_deb_recent_strategy(
+    city_id: str,
+    city_rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]],
+    today_str: str,
+) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    today_date = datetime.strptime(today_str, "%Y-%m-%d").date()
+    recent_7_start = (today_date - timedelta(days=7)).isoformat()
+    recent_14_start = (today_date - timedelta(days=14)).isoformat()
+    end_date = (today_date - timedelta(days=1)).isoformat()
+    rows = _build_city_deb_rows(city_id, city_rows, today_str)
+    if not rows:
+        return None
+    recent_7d = _evaluate_deb_records(rows, start_date=recent_7_start, end_date=end_date)
+    recent_14d = _evaluate_deb_records(rows, start_date=recent_14_start, end_date=end_date)
+    return {
+        "recent_7d": recent_7d,
+        "recent_14d": recent_14d,
+        **_build_deb_recent_trust_strategy(recent_7d, recent_14d),
+    }
+
+
+def _build_city_deb_accuracy(city_id: str, city_rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]], today_str: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    rows = _build_city_deb_rows(city_id, city_rows, today_str)
    metrics = _evaluate_deb_records(rows)
    if not metrics["samples"]:
        return None
@@ -2433,6 +2509,7 @@ def _build_training_accuracy_payload(
    for city_id, info in (city_registry or {}).items():
        city_rows = history.get(city_id) or history.get(str(city_id).strip().lower()) or {}
        deb_payload = _build_city_deb_accuracy(city_id, city_rows, today)
+        deb_recent = _build_city_deb_recent_strategy(city_id, city_rows, today) if deb_payload else None
        mu_payload = _build_city_mu_accuracy(city_id, city_rows, today)
        if deb_payload or mu_payload:
            accuracy_data.append(
@@ -2440,6 +2517,7 @@ def _build_training_accuracy_payload(
                    "city_id": city_id,
                    "name": (info or {}).get("name") or city_id,
                    "deb": deb_payload,
+                    "deb_recent": deb_recent,
                    "mu": mu_payload,
                }
            )