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fix(trend-engine): fallback to non-ensemble probability computation when OM drops to keep UI alive

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This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-03-11 05:07:41 +08:00
parent c5010a8b97
commit 2b681513ab
1 changed files with 46 additions and 23 deletions
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src/analysis/trend_engine.py
+46 -23
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@@ -214,6 +214,8 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
ens_data = {"p10": ens_p10, "p90": ens_p90, "median": ens_median}
sigma = None
fallback_sigma = False
if ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None and ens_median is not None:
msg1 = (
f"📊 <b>集合预报</b>：中位数 {ens_median}{temp_symbol}，"
@@ -283,6 +285,23 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
sigma *= 0.3
elif first_peak_h <= local_hour_frac <= last_peak_h:
sigma *= 0.7
else:
# Fallback for sigma when ensemble is missing
fallback_sigma = True
if forecast_highs and len(forecast_highs) > 1:
sigma = max(0.6, (max(forecast_highs) - min(forecast_highs)) / 2.0)
else:
sigma = 1.0
if city_name:
acc = get_deb_accuracy(city_name)
if acc and acc[1] > sigma:
sigma = acc[1]
if local_hour_frac > last_peak_h:
sigma *= 0.3
elif first_peak_h <= local_hour_frac <= last_peak_h:
sigma *= 0.7
# === Dead Market ===
is_dead_market = False
@@ -296,30 +315,34 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
forecast_miss_deg = 0.0
if ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None and not is_dead_market:
# Forecast miss magnitude
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_median is not None:
forecast_miss_deg = round(forecast_median - max_so_far, 1)
# Reality-anchored μ
if (
max_so_far is not None
and forecast_median is not None
and peak_status in ("past", "in_window")
and max_so_far < forecast_median - 2.0
):
if is_cooling or peak_status == "past":
mu = max_so_far
if (ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None) or fallback_sigma:
if not is_dead_market:
# Forecast miss magnitude
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_median is not None:
forecast_miss_deg = round(forecast_median - max_so_far, 1)
fallback_center = forecast_median if forecast_median is not None else (forecast_high if forecast_high is not None else cur_temp)
center = ens_median if ens_median is not None else fallback_center
# Reality-anchored μ
if (
max_so_far is not None
and forecast_median is not None
and peak_status in ("past", "in_window")
and max_so_far < forecast_median - 2.0
):
if is_cooling or peak_status == "past":
mu = max_so_far
else:
mu = max_so_far + 0.5
else:
mu = max_so_far + 0.5
else:
mu = (
forecast_median * 0.7 + ens_median * 0.3
if forecast_median is not None
else ens_median
)
if max_so_far is not None and max_so_far > mu:
mu = max_so_far + (0.3 if not is_cooling else 0.0)
mu = (
forecast_median * 0.7 + center * 0.3
if forecast_median is not None and center is not None
else center
)
if max_so_far is not None and mu is not None and max_so_far > mu:
mu = max_so_far + (0.3 if not is_cooling else 0.0)
# Forecast miss severity for AI
if forecast_miss_deg > 2.0 and peak_status in ("past", "in_window"):