feat: Enhance data fusion with new sources (Meteoblue, MGM), add automated trend analysis, and update system architecture documentation.
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2569718930@qq.com
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ py -3.11 run.py
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python3 run.py
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```
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_Note: The system is currently in **Weather Query Mode**. Active market monitoring and automated trading modules are suspended._
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_Note: The system is currently in **Weather Query Mode**. Legacy active market monitoring and automated trading modules are suspended._
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---
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@@ -31,92 +31,76 @@ _Note: The system is currently in **Weather Query Mode**. Active market monitori
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| `/id` | **Get Chat ID** | Retrieve your current Telegram Chat ID |
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| `/help` | **Help** | Display all available commands |
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### /city Command Example
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```
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/city Chicago
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```
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**Real-time Output:**
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> 📍 **Chicago 天气详情**
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> ⏱️ 生成时间: 12:45:30
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> ════════════════════
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> 🕐 当地时间: 12:45
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>
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> 📊 **Open-Meteo 7天预测**
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> 👉 今天: 最高 22.4°F (NWS: 23°F)
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> 02-08: 最高 26.2°F
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> 02-09: 最高 37.2°F
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>
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> ✈️ **机场实测 (KORD)**
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> 🌡️ 21.0°F (今日最高: 23.0°F)
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> 💨 风速: 4kt
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> 🕐 观测: 12:00 (当地)
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>
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> 💡 **态势分析**
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> ⏱️ **预计峰值时刻**：今天 14:00 - 16:00 之间。
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> 🎯 **博弈建议**：关注该时段实测能否站稳 22.4°F。
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> 📈 **升温进程中**：距离峰值还有约 1.4° 空间，正向高点冲击。
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---
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## ✨ Key Features
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### 1. 🏛️ Multi-Source Data Fusion
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### 1. 🏛️ Multi-Source Data Fusion (High-Fidelity)
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The bot aggregates data from multiple authoritative sources:
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The bot aggregates data from multiple authoritative sources, layered by reliability:
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| Source | Data Type | Coverage |
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| -------------- | ------------------------------ | ----------------- |
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| **Open-Meteo** | 7-day forecast | Global |
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| **NWS** | Official US forecast | US cities only ⚠️ |
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| **METAR** | Real-time airport observations | Global airports |
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| Source | Role | Coverage | Strength |
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| :----------------- | :---------------------- | :-------------- | :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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| **Open-Meteo** | Base Forecast | Global | Provides detailed 72-hour temperature curves for all cities. |
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| **Meteoblue (MB)** | **Precision Consensus** | Global | **Traders' choice**. Aggregates multiple models; excellent for microclimates. |
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| **METAR** | **Settlement Standard** | Global Airports | The absolute truth for Polymarket settlement; real-time station data. |
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| **NWS** | Official (US) | US Only | High-fidelity forecasts for US cities, critical for extreme weather events. |
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| **MGM** | Official (Turkey) | Ankara | Direct access to Turkish State Meteorological Service for local official accuracy. |
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- **⚠️ Divergence Alerts**: When Open-Meteo and NWS disagree by >1°F, the bot flags it for your attention.
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### 2. ⚡ Ultra-Fresh Data (Cache-Busting)
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### 2. ⏱️ Peak Timing Prediction
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To counter second-by-second variations in weather betting, we implemented **Zero-Cache Technology**:
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For each city, the bot analyzes the hourly forecast curve to identify:
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- **Micro-timestamp Tokens**: Every request includes a dynamic token to force servers to bypass CDN caches.
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- **MGM Real-time Sync**: Specialized header camouflaging to bypass local Turkish API anti-crawling for Ankara.
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- **Exact peak window**: e.g., "14:00 - 16:00"
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- **Betting recommendation**: Monitor real-time data during this window
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### 3. ⏱️ Automated Trend Analysis
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### 3. 📊 Today's High Tracking
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The bot doesn't just fetch data; it interprets it:
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METAR data is filtered by **local calendar day** using UTC offset:
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- **Peak Window Prediction**: Automatically identifies the timeframe when today's record is most likely to be hit.
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- **Risk Profiling**: Assigns risk levels based on geographic traits (e.g., Ankara high-altitude swings, London coastal microclimates).
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- **Source Attribution**: Every data point is clearly labeled ([MGM], [METAR], [MB]) to help you weigh the data.
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- Only observations from **local midnight onwards** are counted
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- Ensures "Today's High" is accurate, not polluted by yesterday's warm afternoon
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### 4. 📊 Smart Max-Temp Tracking
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### 4. ✈️ High-Fidelity Airport Data (METAR)
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Optimized for Polymarket settlement logic:
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Directly connected to **NOAA Aviation Weather**, the bot fetches raw METAR data from major international airports.
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- **Local Day Filtering**: Uses city UTC offsets to strictly count observations after 00:00 local time.
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- **Multi-dimension Monitoring**: Includes "Feels Like" temperatures and 24h precipitation to assist in nuanced trade decisions.
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- Automatic conversion from UTC to **City Local Time**.
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- Real-time station observations (Temperature, Wind, Dew Point).
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---
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### 5. ⚡ Ultra-Fresh Data (Cache Busting)
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## 🏗️ System Architecture
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Engineered to bypass ISP and proxy caches:
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PolyWeather uses a **Lightweight, Plugin-based** architecture for millisecond responses.
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- Every request includes a **micro-timestamp token**.
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- Forces weather servers (Open-Meteo/NOAA/NWS) to deliver fresh results instead of stale cached snapshots.
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```mermaid
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graph TD
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User[/Telegram User/] --> Bot[bot_listener.py]
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Bot --> Collector[WeatherDataCollector]
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subgraph "Data Engine"
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Collector --> OM[Open-Meteo API]
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Collector --> MB[Meteoblue Scraper]
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Collector --> NOAA[METAR Data Center]
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Collector --> MGM[Turkish MGM API]
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Collector --> NWS[US NWS API]
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end
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Collector --> Processing[Smart Analysis & Formatting]
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Processing --> Bot
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Bot --> Reponse[/Compact Betting Snapshot/]
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```
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- **Logic Decoupling**: `weather_sources.py` handles parsing; `bot_listener.py` handles rendering.
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- **Legacy Modules**: `main.py` contains the old automated trading engine. Focus has shifted to "assisted manual decision-making."
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---
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## 🎯 Betting Strategy Tips
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1. **Check model consensus**: If Open-Meteo and NWS agree, confidence is high.
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2. **Watch the peak window**: Monitor METAR during predicted peak hours.
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3. **Use "Today's High"**: Track the actual recorded maximum vs forecast.
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4. **Interpret ⚠️ warnings**: Divergence means uncertainty—proceed with caution.
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---
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## 🏗️ Architecture Note
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The project contains a legacy **Monitoring Engine** and **Paper Trading System** (located in `main.py`). These features are currently **deactivated** to prioritize high-speed on-demand weather reporting.
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- To re-enable monitoring: Uncomment `monitor_thread.start()` in `run.py`.
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- Documentation for inactive features: See [MARKET_DISCOVERY.md](./MARKET_DISCOVERY.md) and [PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md](./PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md).
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1. **Check Consensus**: Compare Open-Meteo and Meteoblue (MB). Consensus usually implies higher probability.
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2. **Watch the Peak**: Use `/city` frequently during predicted peak windows to catch momentum.
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3. **Weighting Hierarchy**: Settlement is **METAR**; high-accuracy trend is **MB**; Official (NWS/MGM) is the "anchor."
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4. **Geographic Risk**: Pay close attention to cities where "Bias will significantly amplify."
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