From 2450c63a3ae663378e0abfd13d97d575437a8aac Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "2569718930@qq.com" <2569718930@qq.com> Date: Sun, 8 Feb 2026 19:49:58 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] feat: Enhance data fusion with new sources (Meteoblue, MGM), add automated trend analysis, and update system architecture documentation. --- README.md | 116 +++++++++++++++++++++--------------------------- README_ZH.md | 110 +++++++++++++++++++++------------------------ bot_listener.py | 12 +++-- 3 files changed, 109 insertions(+), 129 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 3c62e90f..ee282da2 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ py -3.11 run.py python3 run.py ``` -_Note: The system is currently in **Weather Query Mode**. Active market monitoring and automated trading modules are suspended._ +_Note: The system is currently in **Weather Query Mode**. Legacy active market monitoring and automated trading modules are suspended._ --- @@ -31,92 +31,76 @@ _Note: The system is currently in **Weather Query Mode**. Active market monitori | `/id` | **Get Chat ID** | Retrieve your current Telegram Chat ID | | `/help` | **Help** | Display all available commands | -### /city Command Example - -``` -/city Chicago -``` - -**Real-time Output:** - -> 📍 **Chicago 天气详情** -> ⏱️ 生成时间: 12:45:30 -> ════════════════════ -> 🕐 当地时间: 12:45 -> -> 📊 **Open-Meteo 7天预测** -> 👉 今天: 最高 22.4°F (NWS: 23°F) -> 02-08: 最高 26.2°F -> 02-09: 最高 37.2°F -> -> ✈️ **机场实测 (KORD)** -> 🌡️ 21.0°F (今日最高: 23.0°F) -> 💨 风速: 4kt -> 🕐 观测: 12:00 (当地) -> -> 💡 **态势分析** -> ⏱️ **预计峰值时刻**：今天 14:00 - 16:00 之间。 -> 🎯 **博弈建议**：关注该时段实测能否站稳 22.4°F。 -> 📈 **升温进程中**：距离峰值还有约 1.4° 空间，正向高点冲击。 - --- ## ✨ Key Features -### 1. 🏛️ Multi-Source Data Fusion +### 1. 🏛️ Multi-Source Data Fusion (High-Fidelity) -The bot aggregates data from multiple authoritative sources: +The bot aggregates data from multiple authoritative sources, layered by reliability: -| Source | Data Type | Coverage | -| -------------- | ------------------------------ | ----------------- | -| **Open-Meteo** | 7-day forecast | Global | -| **NWS** | Official US forecast | US cities only ⚠️ | -| **METAR** | Real-time airport observations | Global airports | +| Source | Role | Coverage | Strength | +| :----------------- | :---------------------- | :-------------- | :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | +| **Open-Meteo** | Base Forecast | Global | Provides detailed 72-hour temperature curves for all cities. | +| **Meteoblue (MB)** | **Precision Consensus** | Global | **Traders' choice**. Aggregates multiple models; excellent for microclimates. | +| **METAR** | **Settlement Standard** | Global Airports | The absolute truth for Polymarket settlement; real-time station data. | +| **NWS** | Official (US) | US Only | High-fidelity forecasts for US cities, critical for extreme weather events. | +| **MGM** | Official (Turkey) | Ankara | Direct access to Turkish State Meteorological Service for local official accuracy. | -- **⚠️ Divergence Alerts**: When Open-Meteo and NWS disagree by >1°F, the bot flags it for your attention. +### 2. ⚡ Ultra-Fresh Data (Cache-Busting) -### 2. ⏱️ Peak Timing Prediction +To counter second-by-second variations in weather betting, we implemented **Zero-Cache Technology**: -For each city, the bot analyzes the hourly forecast curve to identify: +- **Micro-timestamp Tokens**: Every request includes a dynamic token to force servers to bypass CDN caches. +- **MGM Real-time Sync**: Specialized header camouflaging to bypass local Turkish API anti-crawling for Ankara. -- **Exact peak window**: e.g., "14:00 - 16:00" -- **Betting recommendation**: Monitor real-time data during this window +### 3. ⏱️ Automated Trend Analysis -### 3. 📊 Today's High Tracking +The bot doesn't just fetch data; it interprets it: -METAR data is filtered by **local calendar day** using UTC offset: +- **Peak Window Prediction**: Automatically identifies the timeframe when today's record is most likely to be hit. +- **Risk Profiling**: Assigns risk levels based on geographic traits (e.g., Ankara high-altitude swings, London coastal microclimates). +- **Source Attribution**: Every data point is clearly labeled ([MGM], [METAR], [MB]) to help you weigh the data. -- Only observations from **local midnight onwards** are counted -- Ensures "Today's High" is accurate, not polluted by yesterday's warm afternoon +### 4. 📊 Smart Max-Temp Tracking -### 4. ✈️ High-Fidelity Airport Data (METAR) +Optimized for Polymarket settlement logic: -Directly connected to **NOAA Aviation Weather**, the bot fetches raw METAR data from major international airports. +- **Local Day Filtering**: Uses city UTC offsets to strictly count observations after 00:00 local time. +- **Multi-dimension Monitoring**: Includes "Feels Like" temperatures and 24h precipitation to assist in nuanced trade decisions. -- Automatic conversion from UTC to **City Local Time**. -- Real-time station observations (Temperature, Wind, Dew Point). +--- -### 5. ⚡ Ultra-Fresh Data (Cache Busting) +## 🏗️ System Architecture -Engineered to bypass ISP and proxy caches: +PolyWeather uses a **Lightweight, Plugin-based** architecture for millisecond responses. -- Every request includes a **micro-timestamp token**. -- Forces weather servers (Open-Meteo/NOAA/NWS) to deliver fresh results instead of stale cached snapshots. +```mermaid +graph TD + User[/Telegram User/] --> Bot[bot_listener.py] + Bot --> Collector[WeatherDataCollector] + + subgraph "Data Engine" + Collector --> OM[Open-Meteo API] + Collector --> MB[Meteoblue Scraper] + Collector --> NOAA[METAR Data Center] + Collector --> MGM[Turkish MGM API] + Collector --> NWS[US NWS API] + end + + Collector --> Processing[Smart Analysis & Formatting] + Processing --> Bot + Bot --> Reponse[/Compact Betting Snapshot/] +``` + +- **Logic Decoupling**: `weather_sources.py` handles parsing; `bot_listener.py` handles rendering. +- **Legacy Modules**: `main.py` contains the old automated trading engine. Focus has shifted to "assisted manual decision-making." --- ## 🎯 Betting Strategy Tips -1. **Check model consensus**: If Open-Meteo and NWS agree, confidence is high. -2. **Watch the peak window**: Monitor METAR during predicted peak hours. -3. **Use "Today's High"**: Track the actual recorded maximum vs forecast. -4. **Interpret ⚠️ warnings**: Divergence means uncertainty—proceed with caution. - ---- - -## 🏗️ Architecture Note - -The project contains a legacy **Monitoring Engine** and **Paper Trading System** (located in `main.py`). These features are currently **deactivated** to prioritize high-speed on-demand weather reporting. - -- To re-enable monitoring: Uncomment `monitor_thread.start()` in `run.py`. -- Documentation for inactive features: See [MARKET_DISCOVERY.md](./MARKET_DISCOVERY.md) and [PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md](./PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md). +1. **Check Consensus**: Compare Open-Meteo and Meteoblue (MB). Consensus usually implies higher probability. +2. **Watch the Peak**: Use `/city` frequently during predicted peak windows to catch momentum. +3. **Weighting Hierarchy**: Settlement is **METAR**; high-accuracy trend is **MB**; Official (NWS/MGM) is the "anchor." +4. **Geographic Risk**: Pay close attention to cities where "Bias will significantly amplify." diff --git a/README_ZH.md b/README_ZH.md index a0a0a5c4..392999ef 100644 --- a/README_ZH.md +++ b/README_ZH.md @@ -34,89 +34,79 @@ _注意：系统当前处于 **天气查询模式**。主动市场监控和自 ### /city 指令示例 ``` -/city 芝加哥 +/city 伦敦 ``` -**实时输出：** - -> 📍 **Chicago 天气详情** -> ⏱️ 生成时间: 12:45:30 -> ════════════════════ -> 🕐 当地时间: 12:45 -> -> 📊 **Open-Meteo 7天预测** -> 👉 今天: 最高 22.4°F (NWS: 23°F) -> 02-08: 最高 26.2°F -> 02-09: 最高 37.2°F -> -> ✈️ **机场实测 (KORD)** -> 🌡️ 21.0°F (今日最高: 23.0°F) -> 💨 风速: 4kt -> 🕐 观测: 12:00 (当地) -> -> 💡 **态势分析** -> ⏱️ **预计峰值时刻**：今天 14:00 - 16:00 之间。 -> � **博弈建议**：关注该时段实测能否站稳 22.4°F。 -> 📈 **升温进程中**：距离峰值还有约 1.4° 空间，正向高点冲击。 - --- ## ✨ 核心功能 -### 1. 🏛️ 多源数据融合 +### 1. 🏛️ 多源数据融合 (Multi-Source Fusion) -机器人聚合多个权威数据源： +机器人聚合了全球最权威的几个数据源，并按权重进行分层： -| 数据源 | 数据类型 | 覆盖范围 | -| -------------- | ------------ | ------------- | -| **Open-Meteo** | 7天预报 | 全球 | -| **NWS** | 美国官方预报 | 仅美国城市 ⚠️ | -| **METAR** | 机场实时观测 | 全球主要机场 | +| 数据源 | 数据角色 | 覆盖范围 | 优势 | +| :----------------- | :------------- | :--------- | :----------------------------------------------- | +| **Open-Meteo** | 基础预测 | 全球 | 提供所有城市的 72 小时精细化温度曲线 | +| **Meteoblue (MB)** | **高精度共识** | 全球 | **交易员首选**。聚合多家模型，对微气候处理极佳 | +| **METAR** | **结算标准** | 全球机场 | Polymarket 结算参考的绝对真理，实时机场观测 | +| **NWS** | 官方预测(美) | 仅限美国 | 美国国家气象局，对美国城市的极端天气预判准确 | +| **MGM** | 官方预测(土) | 仅限安卡拉 | 土耳其气象局，提供安卡拉 Esenboğa 机场的官方数据 | -- **⚠️ 分歧预警**：当 Open-Meteo 和 NWS 预测差异超过 1°F 时，机器人会标注提醒。 +### 2. ⚡ 超新鲜数据 (Cache-Busting) -### 2. ⏱️ 峰值时刻预测 +为了应对气象博弈中秒级的变化，我们实现了 **0 缓存技术**： -机器人分析每个城市的逐小时预报曲线，识别： +- **微秒级令牌**：每个 API 请求都附带动态时间戳，强制气象服务器绕过 CDN 缓存返回最新值。 +- **MGM 实时同步**：针对土耳其 MGM API 做了专门的 Header 伪装和时区校正。 -- **精确峰值窗口**：如 "14:00 - 16:00" -- **博弈建议**：在此窗口期关注实测数据变化 +### 3. ⏱️ 自动态势分析 -### 3. 📊 今日最高温追踪 +机器人不仅仅搬运数据，它还会进行逻辑加工： -METAR 数据按**当地日历日**过滤（使用 UTC 偏移）： +- **峰值时刻预测**：自动计算今天气温最高点出现的概率窗口（如：14:00 - 15:00）。 +- **风险等级 (Risk-Profile)**：根据地理特征（如安卡拉的高原温差、伦敦的近海微气候）自动分配风险等级。 +- **数据溯源**：报表明确标注每个数字的来源（[MGM], [METAR], [MB]）。 -- 只统计**当地零点之后**的观测记录 -- 确保"今日最高"准确，不受昨天下午高温干扰 +### 4. 📊 智能最高温追踪 -### 4. ✈️ 高保真机场数据 (METAR) +针对 Polymarket 的结算逻辑进行优化： -直连 **NOAA 航空气象中心**，获取原始 METAR 数据： +- **当地日历日过滤**：基于城市 UTC 偏移，严格统计当地时间 00:00 之后的实测最高温。 +- **多维度监测**：集成体感温度 (`feels_like`) 和 24h 累计降雨量，辅助多维度判断。 -- 自动将 UTC 时间转换为**城市当地时间** -- 实时观测（温度、风速、露点） +--- -### 5. ⚡ 超新鲜数据（缓存穿透） +## 🏗️ 系统架构 -专门设计以绕过 ISP 和代理缓存： +本项目采用 **“轻量化、插件式”** 架构，旨在实现毫秒级响应。 -- 每次请求附带**微秒时间戳令牌** -- 强制 Open-Meteo/NOAA/NWS 返回最新数据 +```mermaid +graph TD + User[/Telegram User/] --> Bot[bot_listener.py] + Bot --> Collector[WeatherDataCollector] + + subgraph "Data Engine" + Collector --> OM[Open-Meteo API] + Collector --> MB[Meteoblue Scraper] + Collector --> NOAA[METAR Data Center] + Collector --> MGM[Turkish MGM API] + Collector --> NWS[US NWS API] + end + + Collector --> Processing[智能分析 & 格式化] + Processing --> Bot + Bot --> Reponse[/精简版博弈快照/] +``` + +- **逻辑解耦**：`weather_sources.py` 负责外部数据的解析；`bot_listener.py` 负责消息模板渲染。 +- **遗留模块说明**：项目根目录下的 `main.py` 包含旧版本的自动交易引擎。目前重心在“手动辅助决策”，如需开启请查阅 [MARKET_DISCOVERY_ZH.md](./MARKET_DISCOVERY_ZH.md)。 --- ## 🎯 博弈策略提示 -1. **检查模型共识**：如果 Open-Meteo 和 NWS 一致，置信度高。 -2. **关注峰值窗口**：在预测的峰值时段多次刷新 METAR。 -3. **使用"今日最高"**：对比实测峰值与预报值。 -4. **解读 ⚠️ 警告**：分歧意味着不确定性——谨慎操作。 - ---- - -## 🏗️ 架构说明 - -项目包含一个遗留的**监控引擎**和**模拟交易系统**（位于 `main.py`）。这些功能目前**已停用**，以优先保障高速按需天气查询。 - -- 重新启用监控：取消 `run.py` 中 `monitor_thread.start()` 的注释。 -- 已停用功能的文档：参见 [MARKET_DISCOVERY_ZH.md](./MARKET_DISCOVERY_ZH.md) 和 [PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md](./PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md)。 +1. **检查模型共识**：查看 Open-Meteo 和 Meteoblue (MB) 是否达成共识。 +2. **关注峰值窗口**：在预测的峰值时段多次使用 `/city` 刷新。 +3. **数据权重优先级**：结算以 **METAR** 为准，趋势预测以 **MB** 为准。 +4. **地理风险评估**：重点关注提示中的“偏差会显著放大”警告（如安卡拉、伦敦）。 diff --git a/bot_listener.py b/bot_listener.py index 60b68308..54114665 100644 --- a/bot_listener.py +++ b/bot_listener.py @@ -274,16 +274,22 @@ def start_bot(): # 今天对比 today_t = max_temps[0] if max_temps else "N/A" comp_parts = [] + sources = ["Open-Meteo"] + + if mb_high is not None: + sources.append("MB") + comp_parts.append(f"MB: {mb_high}") if nws_high is not None: + sources.append("NWS") comp_parts.append(f"NWS: {nws_high}") if mgm_high is not None: + sources.append("MGM") comp_parts.append(f"MGM: {mgm_high}") - if mb_high is not None: - comp_parts.append(f"MB: {mb_high}") comp_str = f" ({' | '.join(comp_parts)})" if comp_parts else "" + sources_str = " | ".join(sources) - msg_lines.append(f"\n📊 预报 (Open-Meteo)") + msg_lines.append(f"\n📊 预报 ({sources_str})") msg_lines.append(f"👉 今天: {today_t}{temp_symbol}{comp_str}") # 明后天