Add RP5 forecast scraping support

2026-03-17 23:15:13 +08:00
parent 9ac0a13937
commit 1ae9b55509
19 changed files with 1113 additions and 278 deletions
@@ -21,13 +21,14 @@ TELEGRAM_ALERT_MIN_SEVERITY=medium
 TELEGRAM_ALERT_MISPRICING_MAX_YES_BUY=0.10
 TELEGRAM_ALERT_CITIES=ankara,london,paris,seoul,hong kong,shanghai,singapore,tokyo,tel aviv,toronto,buenos aires,wellington,new york,chicago,dallas,miami,atlanta,seattle,lucknow,sao paulo,munich

-# AI
-GROQ_API_KEY=your_groq_api_key_here
-
 # Open-Meteo (forecast data changes ~hourly, no need to refresh more often)
 OPEN_METEO_CACHE_TTL_SEC=7200
 OPEN_METEO_ENSEMBLE_CACHE_TTL_SEC=7200
 OPEN_METEO_MULTI_MODEL_CACHE_TTL_SEC=7200
+OPEN_METEO_MULTI_MODEL_CACHE_VERSION=v2
+# RP5 public page scrape (for extra model in multi-model forecasts)
+RP5_MULTI_MODEL_ENABLED=true
+RP5_HTTP_TIMEOUT_SEC=20

 # Proxy Setting (optional)
 HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ const TELEGRAM_GROUP_URL = String(
 const FAQ_ITEMS = [
  {
    q: "Pro 包含哪些功能？",
-    a: "开通后可解锁：今日日内深度分析（含高温时段）、历史对账 + 未来日期分析、全平台智能气象推送。",
+    a: "开通后可解锁：今日日内机场报文规则分析（含高温时段）、历史对账 + 未来日期分析、全平台智能气象推送。",
  },
  {
    q: "当前订阅价格是多少？",
@@ -60,7 +60,9 @@ function DetailMiniTemperatureChart({ detail }: { detail: CityDetail }) {
            borderWidth: 0,
            data: chartData.datasets.metarPoints,
            fill: false,
-            label: locale === "en-US" ? "METAR Observation" : "METAR 实测",
+            label:
+              chartData.observationLabel ||
+              (locale === "en-US" ? "METAR Observation" : "METAR 实况"),
            pointHoverRadius: 6,
            pointRadius: 3.8,
            showLine: false,
@@ -248,7 +248,9 @@ function DailyTemperatureChart({ dateStr }: { dateStr: string }) {
        borderWidth: 0,
        data: todayChartData.datasets.metarPoints,
        fill: false,
-        label: locale === "en-US" ? "METAR Observation" : "METAR 实测",
+        label:
+          todayChartData.observationLabel ||
+          (locale === "en-US" ? "METAR Observation" : "METAR 实况"),
        order: 0,
        pointHoverRadius: 7,
        pointRadius: 5,
@@ -19,6 +19,10 @@ function HistoryChart() {
  const hasMgm =
    store.selectedCity === "ankara" &&
    summary.mgms.some((value) => value != null);
+  const hasBestBaseline =
+    Boolean(summary.bestModelName) &&
+    summary.bestModelName !== "MGM" &&
+    summary.bestModelSeries.some((value) => value != null);

  const canvasRef = useChart(() => {
    const datasets: NonNullable<
@@ -62,6 +66,23 @@ function HistoryChart() {
      });
    }

+    if (hasBestBaseline) {
+      datasets.push({
+        backgroundColor: "transparent",
+        borderColor: "#60a5fa",
+        borderDash: [4, 3],
+        borderWidth: 2,
+        data: summary.bestModelSeries,
+        label:
+          locale === "en-US"
+            ? `Best Baseline (${summary.bestModelName})`
+            : `最佳单模型 (${summary.bestModelName})`,
+        pointHoverRadius: 6,
+        pointRadius: 4,
+        tension: 0.2,
+      });
+    }
+
    return {
      data: {
        datasets,
@@ -114,7 +135,7 @@ function HistoryChart() {
      },
      type: "line",
    } satisfies ChartConfiguration<"line">;
-  }, [hasMgm, summary, locale]);
+  }, [hasBestBaseline, hasMgm, summary, locale]);

  if (!summary.recentData.length) return null;

@@ -195,17 +216,37 @@ export function HistoryModal() {
              ) : (
                <>
                  <div className="h-stat-card">
-                    <span className="label">{t("history.hitRate")}</span>
+                    <span className="label">{t("history.debHitRate")}</span>
                    <span className="val">
                      {summary.hitRate != null ? `${summary.hitRate}%` : "--"}
                    </span>
                  </div>
                  <div className="h-stat-card">
-                    <span className="label">{t("history.mae")}</span>
+                    <span className="label">{t("history.debMae")}</span>
                    <span className="val">
                      {summary.debMae != null ? `${summary.debMae}°` : "--"}
                    </span>
                  </div>
+                  <div className="h-stat-card">
+                    <span className="label">{t("history.bestModelMae")}</span>
+                    <span className="val">
+                      {summary.bestModelMae != null
+                        ? `${summary.bestModelMae}°${
+                            summary.bestModelName
+                              ? ` (${summary.bestModelName})`
+                              : ""
+                          }`
+                        : "--"}
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="h-stat-card">
+                    <span className="label">{t("history.debVsBest")}</span>
+                    <span className="val">
+                      {summary.debWinRateVsBest != null
+                        ? `${summary.debWinRateVsBest}% (${summary.debWinDaysVsBest}/${summary.debVsBestComparableDays})`
+                        : "--"}
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
                  <div className="h-stat-card">
                    <span className="label">{t("history.sample")}</span>
                    <span className="val">
@@ -287,7 +287,9 @@ export function TemperatureChart() {
      borderWidth: 0,
      data: chartData.datasets.metarPoints,
      fill: false,
-      label: locale === "en-US" ? "METAR Observation" : "METAR 实测",
+      label:
+        chartData.observationLabel ||
+        (locale === "en-US" ? "METAR Observation" : "METAR 实况"),
      order: 0,
      pointHoverRadius: 7,
      pointRadius: 5,
@@ -56,12 +56,12 @@ type UnlockProOverlayProps = {

 const FEATURES = {
  "zh-CN": [
-    "今日日内深度分析（含高温时段）",
+    "今日日内机场报文规则分析（含高温时段）",
    "历史对账 + 未来日期分析",
    "全平台智能气象推送",
  ],
  "en-US": [
-    "Intraday deep analysis with peak-time window",
+    "Intraday METAR rule-based analysis with peak-time window",
    "Historical reconciliation + future-date analysis",
    "Cross-platform alerts",
  ],
@@ -287,6 +287,10 @@ export interface CityDetail {
    time?: string;
    temp?: number | null;
  }>;
+  settlement_today_obs?: Array<{
+    time?: string;
+    temp?: number | null;
+  }>;
  trend?: TrendInfo;
  peak?: PeakInfo;
  ai_analysis?: string | AiAnalysisStructured | null;
@@ -300,7 +304,9 @@ export interface HistoryPoint {
  date: string;
  actual: number | null;
  deb: number | null;
+  mu?: number | null;
  mgm?: number | null;
+  forecasts?: Record<string, number | null>;
 }

 export interface LoadingState {
@@ -30,6 +30,24 @@ function isEnglish(locale: Locale) {
  return locale === "en-US";
 }

+function getObservationSourceCode(detail: CityDetail): string {
+  return String(detail.current?.settlement_source || "metar")
+    .trim()
+    .toLowerCase();
+}
+
+function getObservationSourceTag(detail: CityDetail): string {
+  const label = String(detail.current?.settlement_source_label || "")
+    .trim()
+    .toUpperCase();
+  if (label) return label;
+  const code = getObservationSourceCode(detail);
+  if (code === "hko") return "HKO";
+  if (code === "cwa") return "CWA";
+  if (code === "mgm") return "MGM";
+  return "METAR";
+}
+
 function normalizeCloudSummary(
  cloudDesc: string | null | undefined,
  locale: Locale,
@@ -119,6 +137,7 @@ export function getWeatherSummary(detail: CityDetail, locale: Locale = "zh-CN")
 export function getHeroMetaItems(detail: CityDetail, locale: Locale = "zh-CN") {
  const current = detail.current || {};
  const parts: string[] = [];
+  const sourceTag = getObservationSourceTag(detail);

  if (current.obs_time) {
    const ageText =
@@ -127,7 +146,7 @@ export function getHeroMetaItems(detail: CityDetail, locale: Locale = "zh-CN") {
          ? ` (${current.obs_age_min} min ago)`
          : `（${current.obs_age_min} 分钟前）`
        : "";
-    parts.push(`✈️ METAR ${current.obs_time}${ageText}`);
+    parts.push(`✈️ ${sourceTag} ${current.obs_time}${ageText}`);
  }

  if (current.wx_desc) {
@@ -209,12 +228,18 @@ export function getTemperatureChartData(
    currentIndex < 0 || index >= currentIndex ? temp : null,
  );

-  const metarPoints = new Array(times.length).fill(null);
-  const metarSource = detail.metar_today_obs?.length
-    ? detail.metar_today_obs
-    : detail.trend?.recent || [];
+  const observationTag = getObservationSourceTag(detail);
+  const observationCode = getObservationSourceCode(detail);
+  const settlementSource =
+    observationCode === "hko" || observationCode === "cwa";
+  const observationSource = settlementSource
+    ? detail.settlement_today_obs || []
+    : detail.metar_today_obs?.length
+      ? detail.metar_today_obs
+      : detail.trend?.recent || [];

-  metarSource.forEach((item) => {
+  const metarPoints = new Array(times.length).fill(null);
+  observationSource.forEach((item) => {
    const parts = String(item.time || "").split(":");
    let hour = Number.parseInt(parts[0], 10);
    const minute = Number.parseInt(parts[1] || "0", 10);
@@ -286,13 +311,17 @@ export function getTemperatureChartData(
        : "已使用 MGM 小时预报替代 DEB 曲线",
    );
  }
-  if (detail.trend?.recent?.length) {
-    const recentText = [...detail.trend.recent]
+  if ((detail.trend?.recent?.length || 0) > 0 || observationSource.length > 0) {
+    const recentData =
+      observationSource.length > 0
+        ? [...observationSource]
+        : [...(detail.trend?.recent || [])];
+    const recentText = recentData
      .slice(0, 4)
      .reverse()
      .map((item) => `${item.temp}${detail.temp_symbol}@${item.time}`)
      .join(" -> ");
-    legendParts.push(`METAR: ${recentText}`);
+    legendParts.push(`${observationTag}: ${recentText}`);
  }

  return {
@@ -306,6 +335,9 @@ export function getTemperatureChartData(
      offset,
      temps,
    },
+    observationLabel: isEnglish(locale)
+      ? `${observationTag} Observation`
+      : `${observationTag} 实况`,
    legendText: legendParts.join(" | "),
    max,
    min,
@@ -973,6 +1005,13 @@ export function getHistorySummary(
  history: HistoryPoint[],
  cityLocalDate?: string | null,
 ) {
+  const toFinite = (value: unknown): number | null => {
+    const numeric = Number(value);
+    return Number.isFinite(numeric) ? numeric : null;
+  };
+  const isExcludedModel = (name: string) =>
+    String(name || "").toLowerCase().includes("meteoblue");
+
  const cutoff = new Date();
  cutoff.setHours(0, 0, 0, 0);
  cutoff.setDate(cutoff.getDate() - 14);
@@ -992,15 +1031,65 @@ export function getHistorySummary(

  let hits = 0;
  const debErrors: number[] = [];
+  const modelErrors: Record<string, number[]> = {};
+
  settledData.forEach((row) => {
-    if (row.actual != null && row.deb != null) {
-      debErrors.push(Math.abs(row.actual - row.deb));
-      if (wuRound(row.actual) === wuRound(row.deb)) {
+    const actual = toFinite(row.actual);
+    const deb = toFinite(row.deb);
+    if (actual != null && deb != null) {
+      debErrors.push(Math.abs(actual - deb));
+      if (wuRound(actual) === wuRound(deb)) {
        hits += 1;
      }
    }
+
+    const forecasts = row.forecasts || {};
+    Object.entries(forecasts).forEach(([modelName, modelValue]) => {
+      if (isExcludedModel(modelName)) return;
+      const mv = toFinite(modelValue);
+      if (actual == null || mv == null) return;
+      if (!modelErrors[modelName]) {
+        modelErrors[modelName] = [];
+      }
+      modelErrors[modelName].push(Math.abs(actual - mv));
+    });
  });

+  const modelMaeList = Object.entries(modelErrors)
+    .map(([name, errors]) => ({
+      mae:
+        errors.length > 0
+          ? errors.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / errors.length
+          : Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,
+      model: name,
+      sampleCount: errors.length,
+    }))
+    .filter((row) => Number.isFinite(row.mae) && row.sampleCount > 0)
+    .sort((a, b) => a.mae - b.mae);
+
+  const primaryModelMaeList = modelMaeList.filter((row) => row.sampleCount >= 2);
+  const bestModel = (primaryModelMaeList[0] || modelMaeList[0]) ?? null;
+  const bestModelName = bestModel?.model || null;
+  const bestModelMae = bestModel ? Number(bestModel.mae.toFixed(1)) : null;
+  const bestModelSeries = recentData.map((row) =>
+    bestModelName ? toFinite(row.forecasts?.[bestModelName]) : null,
+  );
+
+  let debWinDaysVsBest = 0;
+  let debVsBestComparableDays = 0;
+  if (bestModelName) {
+    settledData.forEach((row) => {
+      const actual = toFinite(row.actual);
+      const deb = toFinite(row.deb);
+      const bestModelVal = toFinite(row.forecasts?.[bestModelName]);
+      if (actual == null || deb == null || bestModelVal == null) return;
+      debVsBestComparableDays += 1;
+      if (Math.abs(deb - actual) <= Math.abs(bestModelVal - actual)) {
+        debWinDaysVsBest += 1;
+      }
+    });
+  }
+
  return {
    dates: recentData.map((row) => row.date),
    debMae: debErrors.length
@@ -1011,6 +1100,20 @@ export function getHistorySummary(
        )
      : null,
    debs: recentData.map((row) => row.deb),
+    bestModelName,
+    bestModelMae,
+    bestModelSeries,
+    modelMaeRanks: modelMaeList.map((row) => ({
+      model: row.model,
+      mae: Number(row.mae.toFixed(1)),
+      sampleCount: row.sampleCount,
+    })),
+    debWinDaysVsBest,
+    debVsBestComparableDays,
+    debWinRateVsBest:
+      debVsBestComparableDays > 0
+        ? Number(((debWinDaysVsBest / debVsBestComparableDays) * 100).toFixed(0))
+        : null,
    hitRate: debErrors.length
      ? Number(((hits / debErrors.length) * 100).toFixed(0))
      : null,
@@ -59,6 +59,11 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
    "history.empty": "近 15 天暂无该城市历史数据",
    "history.hitRate": "DEB 结算胜率 (WU)",
    "history.mae": "DEB MAE",
+    "history.debHitRate": "DEB 结算胜率 (WU)",
+    "history.debMae": "DEB MAE",
+    "history.muMae": "μ MAE",
+    "history.bestModelMae": "最佳单模型 MAE",
+    "history.debVsBest": "DEB 优于最佳模型",
    "history.sample": "近 15 天已结算样本",
    "history.sampleDays": "{count} 天",

@@ -86,8 +91,8 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
    "future.judgement": "判断",
    "future.confidence": "置信度",
    "future.maxPrecip": "最大降水概率",
-    "future.ai": "AI 深度分析",
-    "future.noAi": "暂无 AI 分析，当前以结构化气象与模型数据为主。",
+    "future.ai": "机场报文解读",
+    "future.noAi": "暂无机场报文解读，当前以结构化气象与模型数据为主。",
    "future.weatherGov": "weather.gov 文本",
    "future.risk": "结算与偏差风险",
    "future.climate": "当地气候主要受什么影响",
@@ -104,8 +109,8 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
    "section.noProb": "暂无概率数据",
    "section.models": "多模型预报",
    "section.noModels": "暂无多模型预报",
-    "section.ai": "AI 深度分析",
-    "section.aiEmpty": "暂无 AI 分析，当前以结构化气象与模型数据为主。",
+    "section.ai": "机场报文解读",
+    "section.aiEmpty": "暂无机场报文解读，当前以结构化气象与模型数据为主。",
    "section.risk": "数据偏差风险",
    "section.noRiskProfile": "暂无风险档案",
    "section.airport": "机场",
@@ -214,6 +219,11 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
    "history.empty": "No historical records for this city in the last 15 days",
    "history.hitRate": "DEB Settlement Hit Rate (WU)",
    "history.mae": "DEB MAE",
+    "history.debHitRate": "DEB Settlement Hit Rate (WU)",
+    "history.debMae": "DEB MAE",
+    "history.muMae": "μ MAE",
+    "history.bestModelMae": "Best Single-model MAE",
+    "history.debVsBest": "DEB vs Best Model",
    "history.sample": "Settled Samples (Last 15 Days)",
    "history.sampleDays": "{count} days",

@@ -241,9 +251,9 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
    "future.judgement": "Judgement",
    "future.confidence": "Confidence",
    "future.maxPrecip": "Max Precip Probability",
-    "future.ai": "AI Deep Analysis",
+    "future.ai": "Airport METAR Narrative",
    "future.noAi":
-      "No AI analysis available. Structured meteorological and model data are used as baseline.",
+      "No airport bulletin narrative is available. Structured meteorological and model data are used as baseline.",
    "future.weatherGov": "weather.gov text",
    "future.risk": "Settlement & Deviation Risk",
    "future.climate": "What Mainly Drives Local Climate",
@@ -261,9 +271,9 @@ const MESSAGES: Record<Locale, Record<string, string>> = {
    "section.noProb": "No probability data available",
    "section.models": "Multi-model Forecast",
    "section.noModels": "No multi-model forecast available",
-    "section.ai": "AI Deep Analysis",
+    "section.ai": "Airport METAR Narrative",
    "section.aiEmpty":
-      "No AI analysis available. Structured meteorological and model data are currently used.",
+      "No airport bulletin narrative is available. Structured meteorological data are currently used.",
    "section.risk": "Data Deviation Risk",
    "section.noRiskProfile": "No risk profile available",
    "section.airport": "Airport",
@@ -343,6 +343,7 @@ export interface CityDetail {
  timeseries: {
    metar_recent_obs: any[];
    metar_today_obs: any[];
+    settlement_today_obs?: any[];
    hourly: any;
    mgm_hourly: any[];
    forecast_daily: any[];
@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@
            </section>

            <section class="ai-section">
-                <h3>AI 深度分析</h3>
+                <h3>机场报文解读</h3>
                <div id="aiAnalysis" class="ai-box">
                    <span class="ai-placeholder">点击城市后加载...</span>
                </div>
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+
+ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
+if ROOT not in sys.path:
+    sys.path.insert(0, ROOT)
+
+from src.data_collection.rp5_scraper import scrape_rp5_forecast
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
+        description="Scrape public RP5 forecast page and output JSON.",
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--url",
+        required=True,
+        help="RP5 city weather URL, e.g. https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Ankara%2C_Esenboga_%28airport%29",
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--timeout",
+        type=int,
+        default=20,
+        help="HTTP timeout seconds (default: 20)",
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--out",
+        default="",
+        help="Optional output file path. If empty, print to stdout.",
+    )
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    data = scrape_rp5_forecast(args.url, timeout_sec=args.timeout)
+    payload = json.dumps(data, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)
+
+    if args.out:
+        with open(args.out, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
+            f.write(payload + "\n")
+        print(f"saved: {args.out}")
+    else:
+        print(payload)
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())
+
@@ -1,196 +0,0 @@
-import hashlib
-import os
-import threading
-import time
-import requests
-from loguru import logger
-
-# 主力模型 + 备用模型（当主力 500 时自动降级）
-MODELS = [
-    "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
-    "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
-]
-
-# ── 本地缓存 ──────────────────────────────────────────────
-# key: sha1(city_name + weather_insights[:200])
-# value: {"result": str, "t": float}
-_ai_cache: dict = {}
-_ai_cache_lock = threading.Lock()
-
-# 全局 429 冷却期：触发限流后暂停一段时间内的所有 Groq 请求
-_rate_limit_until: float = 0.0
-_rate_limit_lock = threading.Lock()
-
-
-def get_ai_analysis(weather_insights: str, city_name: str, temp_symbol: str) -> str:
-    """
-    通过 Groq API (LLaMA 3.3 70B) 对天气态势进行极速交易分析
-    内置自动重试 + 模型降级机制 + 本地 TTL 缓存 + 全局 429 冷却期
-    """
-    api_key = os.getenv("GROQ_API_KEY")
-    if not api_key:
-        logger.warning("GROQ_API_KEY 未配置，跳过 AI 分析")
-        return ""
-
-    global _rate_limit_until  # 必须在函数顶部声明，不能放在 with 块内
-
-    # ── 缓存配置 ─────────────────────────────────────────
-    cache_ttl = int(os.getenv("GROQ_CACHE_TTL_SEC", "1200"))          # 默认 20 分钟
-    rl_cooldown = int(os.getenv("GROQ_RATE_LIMIT_COOLDOWN_SEC", "600"))  # 默认 10 分钟
-
-    # 缓存 key：城市名 + 天气摘要前 200 字符（同城市、同数据不重复打 API）
-    cache_raw = f"{city_name}:{weather_insights[:200]}"
-    cache_key = hashlib.sha1(cache_raw.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()[:16]
-
-    now = time.time()
-
-    # ── 命中缓存则直接返回 ────────────────────────────────
-    with _ai_cache_lock:
-        cached = _ai_cache.get(cache_key)
-        if cached and now - cached["t"] < cache_ttl:
-            logger.debug(f"Groq AI cache hit city={city_name} age={int(now - cached['t'])}s")
-            return cached["result"]
-
-    # ── 全局 429 冷却期检查 ───────────────────────────────
-    with _rate_limit_lock:
-        if now < _rate_limit_until:
-            remaining = int(_rate_limit_until - now)
-            logger.warning(f"Groq 冷却期中，还需等待 {remaining}s，跳过本次请求")
-            # 如果有旧缓存，返回旧结果（过期但总比没有好）
-            with _ai_cache_lock:
-                stale = _ai_cache.get(cache_key)
-                if stale:
-                    return stale["result"] + "\n<i>（AI 分析来自缓存，数据可能略旧）</i>"
-            return "\n⚠️ Groq AI 限流中，请稍后再试"
-
-    url = "https://api.groq.com/openai/v1/chat/completions"
-    headers = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {api_key}", "Content-Type": "application/json"}
-
-    prompt = f"""
-你是一个专业的天气衍生品交易员。你的任务是分析当前气象实况，判断今日实测最高温的结算落点。
-结算基准为合约指定源（通常为 METAR 口径整数四舍五入），以下用"结算值"代替具体源名称。
-
-请综合以下提供的【{city_name}】气象特征进行深度推理。
-
-【气象特征与事实】
-{weather_insights}
-
-【分析框架】（按此顺序逐项检查，前置项可约束后置项的结论）
-
-P0 **预报失准检测**：
-  - 若数据含"🚨 预报崩盘"或"⚠️ 预报差距"标记，判定预报失准。
-  - 失准等级：轻(偏差2-3°) / 中(3-5°) / 重(>5°)。
-  - 但"失准"≠"已定局"：还需检查近2报斜率是否≤0 且 风向/云量不支持二次抬升，才能判定结算锁定。
-  - 若斜率仍>0或有暖平流迹象，应注明"预报偏高但仍有上行空间"。
-
-P1 **实况节奏**：
-  - 近2-4条METAR的温度走势：连涨/持平/回落？
-  - 连续2报创新高 → 升温未止；连续2报未创新高且斜率≤0 → 偏死盘。
-  - 升温出现在低辐射时段 → 可能有多因子叠加（平流/混合层/热岛），不可单因子归因。
-
-P1.5 **高温时段约束（强制）**：
-  - 先读取输入里的峰值窗口状态（before / in_window / past）。
-  - 若状态是 before（尚未进入峰值窗口）：
-    - 禁止给出“已确认底线/已锁定/大概率到顶”。
-    - 盘口结论必须是“上沿待确认”或“仍有上行变数”。
-  - 若状态是 in_window：
-    - 允许谨慎偏空，但仍不能直接“锁定”；需强调继续观察后续报文是否再创新高。
-  - 只有状态是 past 且同时满足“连续未创新高+回落/抑制因子”，才可使用“已确认底线/锁定”。
-
-P2 **阻碍因子**（需结合城市特性判断）：
-  - 降水已出现(非trace) → 强压温。
-  - 高湿度+厚云层持续2报以上 → 压温可能有效，但阈值因城市（海洋型 vs 大陆型）而异，不可套用固定数值。
-  - 若仅单因子（如仅多云），不足以断定"升温受限"。
-
-P3 **概率与一致性校验**：
-  - 参考结算概率分布，与 P1 实况做一致性检查。
-  - 若概率分布与实况趋势矛盾，以实况为准并说明偏离原因。
-  - 概率可辅助判断边界进位风险（如 X.5 线附近）。
-
-P4 **预报背景**（最低优先级）：
-  - 可参考 DEB/预报做上沿空间评估。
-  - 当实测已显著偏离预报时，禁止继续引用预报值作为目标。
-
-【输出要求】
-1. 正常场景控制在 300 字左右；异常场景（预报失准/极端走势）可扩展到 450 字。
-2. 严格按照以下 HTML 格式输出:
-
-🤖 <b>Groq AI 决策</b>
- 🎲 盘口: [给出结算判断。用"已确认底线 X{temp_symbol}"表示下限确定；用"上沿待确认，关注 Y{temp_symbol}"表示仍有变数。若预报严重失准，注明失准等级和原因。禁止在升温未止时用"锁定"。]
- 💡 逻辑: [3-5 句深度分析。含具体数值。预报失准时重点分析偏差成因。正常时分析实测与预报的动态博弈。]
- 🎯 置信度: [1-10]/10
-
-3. **禁止输出分析框架本身**。不要输出 P0/P1/P2/P3/P4 的分析过程或标题。只输出上方三行格式，不要多余内容。
-4. 若输入出现“尚未进入峰值窗口 / 距最热时段开始还有 / 状态=before”，盘口行必须包含“上沿待确认”或同义表达，且逻辑行必须明确“时间窗未到，不能锁定”。
-"""
-
-    # Use proxy if configured
-    proxies = {}
-    proxy_url = os.getenv("HTTPS_PROXY") or os.getenv("HTTP_PROXY")
-    if proxy_url:
-        proxies = {"http": proxy_url, "https": proxy_url}
-
-    for model in MODELS:
-        for attempt in range(2):  # 每个模型最多重试 2 次
-            try:
-                payload = {
-                    "model": model,
-                    "messages": [
-                        {
-                            "role": "system",
-                            "content": "你是不讲废话、只看数据的专业气象分析师。",
-                        },
-                        {"role": "user", "content": prompt},
-                    ],
-                    "temperature": 0.5,
-                    "max_tokens": 400,
-                }
-
-                response = requests.post(
-                    url, json=payload, headers=headers, timeout=15, proxies=proxies
-                )
-                response.raise_for_status()
-
-                result = response.json()
-                content = result["choices"][0]["message"]["content"].strip()
-
-                if model != MODELS[0]:
-                    logger.info(f"Groq 降级到备用模型 {model} 成功")
-                # ── 写入缓存 ─────────────────────────────────
-                with _ai_cache_lock:
-                    _ai_cache[cache_key] = {"result": content, "t": time.time()}
-                return content
-
-            except requests.exceptions.HTTPError as e:
-                status = e.response.status_code if e.response is not None else 0
-                error_body = ""
-                try:
-                    error_body = e.response.text
-                except:
-                    pass
-                logger.warning(
-                    f"Groq {model} 失败 (HTTP {status}): {error_body}. 尝试下一个..."
-                )
-                if status == 429:
-                    # 触发限流：设置全局冷却期，后续请求不再尝试
-                    with _rate_limit_lock:
-                        _rate_limit_until = time.time() + rl_cooldown
-                    logger.warning(f"Groq 触发限流，设置 {rl_cooldown}s 全局冷却期")
-                    break  # 不再尝试其他模型，直接走 stale cache 逻辑
-                if status in (500, 502, 503) and attempt == 0:
-                    time.sleep(1.5)
-                    continue
-                else:
-                    break  # 换下一个模型
-            except Exception as e:
-                logger.warning(f"Groq {model} 异常: {str(e)}，尝试下一个模型...")
-                break
-
-    logger.error("所有 Groq 模型均不可用")
-    # ── 有旧缓存则返回旧结果 ──────────────────────────────
-    with _ai_cache_lock:
-        stale = _ai_cache.get(cache_key)
-        if stale:
-            logger.info(f"Groq 不可用，返回旧缓存结果 city={city_name} age={int(time.time()-stale['t'])}s")
-            return stale["result"] + "\n<i>（⚠️ AI 分析来自上次缓存）</i>"
-    return ""
@@ -3,8 +3,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta
 from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple

-from loguru import logger
-
+from src.analysis.metar_narrator import describe_metar_report
 from src.analysis.trend_engine import analyze_weather_trend
 from src.data_collection.city_registry import ALIASES, CITY_REGISTRY
 from src.data_collection.city_risk_profiles import get_city_risk_profile
@@ -543,33 +542,29 @@ def build_city_query_report(
                f"   [MGM] 🌬️ {dir_str}{wind_dir}° ({wind_speed_ms} m/s) | 💧 降水: {mgm_current.get('rain_24h') or 0}mm"
            )

-    feature_str, ai_context, _structured = analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name)
+    feature_str, _ai_context, _structured = analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name)
    if feature_str:
        msg_lines.append("\n💡 <b>分析</b>:")
        for line in feature_str.split("\n"):
            if line.strip():
                msg_lines.append(f"- {line.strip()}")
-
-        try:
-            from src.analysis.ai_analyzer import get_ai_analysis
-
-            mm = weather_data.get("multi_model", {}) or {}
-            if not isinstance(mm, dict):
-                mm = {}
-            if mm.get("forecasts"):
-                mm_parts = [
-                    f"{k}:{v}{temp_symbol}"
-                    for k, v in (mm.get("forecasts") or {}).items()
-                    if v is not None
-                ]
-                if mm_parts:
-                    ai_context += f"\n模型分歧: {' | '.join(mm_parts)}"
-
-            ai_result = get_ai_analysis(ai_context, city_name, temp_symbol)
-            if ai_result:
-                msg_lines.append(f"\n{ai_result}")
-        except Exception as exc:
-            logger.error(f"调用 Groq AI 分析失败: {exc}")
+    metar_narrative = describe_metar_report(
+        raw_metar=str(primary_current.get("raw_metar") or metar_current.get("raw_metar") or ""),
+        temp_symbol=temp_symbol,
+        fallback={
+            "icao": metar.get("icao"),
+            "station_name": metar.get("station_name"),
+            "temp": cur_temp,
+            "wind_speed_kt": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")),
+            "wind_dir": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_dir")),
+            "altimeter": _sf(primary_current.get("altimeter")),
+            "wx_desc": primary_current.get("wx_desc"),
+            "clouds": primary_current.get("clouds", []),
+        },
+    )
+    if metar_narrative:
+        msg_lines.append("\n🛰️ <b>机场报文解读</b>:")
+        msg_lines.append(metar_narrative)

    msg_lines.append(f"\n💸 本次消耗 <b>{city_query_cost}</b> 积分。")
    return "\n".join(msg_lines)
@@ -0,0 +1,307 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import re
+from typing import Any, Dict, Iterable, Optional, Tuple
+
+_WIND_TOKEN_RE = re.compile(r"^(VRB|\d{3})(\d{2,3})(G(\d{2,3}))?KT$")
+_WIND_VAR_RE = re.compile(r"^(\d{3})V(\d{3})$")
+_TEMP_DEW_RE = re.compile(r"^(M?\d{2}|//)/(M?\d{2}|//)$")
+_PRESSURE_Q_RE = re.compile(r"^Q(\d{4})$")
+_PRESSURE_A_RE = re.compile(r"^A(\d{4})$")
+_CLOUD_RE = re.compile(r"^(FEW|SCT|BKN|OVC|VV|SKC|CLR|NSC)(\d{3})?$")
+_WX_CODE_RE = re.compile(r"^[-+]?([A-Z]{2,})$")
+
+_WIND_DIR_16 = [
+    "北方",
+    "北偏东北方向",
+    "东北方向",
+    "东偏东北方向",
+    "东方",
+    "东偏东南方向",
+    "东南方向",
+    "南偏东南方向",
+    "南方",
+    "南偏西南方向",
+    "西南方向",
+    "西偏西南方向",
+    "西方",
+    "西偏西北方向",
+    "西北方向",
+    "北偏西北方向",
+]
+
+_CLOUD_DESC = {
+    "CLR": "晴空",
+    "SKC": "晴空",
+    "NSC": "晴空",
+    "FEW": "少云",
+    "SCT": "多变云天",
+    "BKN": "多云",
+    "OVC": "阴天",
+    "VV": "低云压顶",
+}
+
+_WEATHER_DESC = {
+    "RA": "有降雨",
+    "DZ": "有毛毛雨",
+    "SN": "有降雪",
+    "TS": "有雷暴",
+    "TSRA": "有雷阵雨",
+    "FG": "有雾",
+    "BR": "有轻雾",
+    "HZ": "有霾",
+    "SHRA": "有阵雨",
+    "FZRA": "有冻雨",
+}
+
+
+def _safe_float(value: Any) -> Optional[float]:
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    try:
+        return float(value)
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+
+
+def _parse_metar_signed_temp(raw: str) -> Optional[float]:
+    if raw in {"", "//"}:
+        return None
+    sign = -1.0 if raw.startswith("M") else 1.0
+    value = raw[1:] if raw.startswith("M") else raw
+    try:
+        return sign * float(int(value))
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+
+
+def _pick_station(tokens: Iterable[str]) -> str:
+    token_list = list(tokens)
+    if not token_list:
+        return ""
+    first = token_list[0]
+    if first in {"METAR", "SPECI"} and len(token_list) >= 2:
+        first = token_list[1]
+    if re.fullmatch(r"[A-Z]{4}", first):
+        return first
+    return ""
+
+
+def _direction_desc(direction_deg: float) -> str:
+    idx = int(((direction_deg % 360) + 11.25) // 22.5) % 16
+    return _WIND_DIR_16[idx]
+
+
+def _wind_level_desc(ms: float) -> str:
+    if ms < 0.3:
+        return "静风"
+    if ms < 1.6:
+        return "软风"
+    if ms < 3.4:
+        return "轻风"
+    if ms < 5.5:
+        return "微风"
+    if ms < 8.0:
+        return "和风"
+    if ms < 10.8:
+        return "清劲风"
+    if ms < 13.9:
+        return "强风"
+    if ms < 17.2:
+        return "疾风"
+    return "大风"
+
+
+def _format_temp(temp: float, symbol: str) -> str:
+    rounded = round(temp, 1)
+    if abs(rounded - round(rounded)) < 0.05:
+        body = str(int(round(rounded)))
+    else:
+        body = f"{rounded:.1f}"
+    if rounded > 0:
+        body = f"+{body}"
+    return f"{body}{symbol}"
+
+
+def _format_ms(ms: float) -> str:
+    rounded = round(ms, 1)
+    if abs(rounded - round(rounded)) < 0.05:
+        return str(int(round(rounded)))
+    return f"{rounded:.1f}"
+
+
+def _pressure_desc(hpa: float) -> str:
+    hp = round(hpa)
+    if hp < 1000:
+        return f"偏低气压({hp} hPa)"
+    if hp > 1030:
+        return f"偏高气压({hp} hPa)"
+    return f"在正常范围内的大气压({hp} hPa)"
+
+
+def _best_cloud_code(tokens: Iterable[str], fallback_clouds: Any) -> str:
+    best = ""
+    rank = {"CLR": 0, "SKC": 0, "NSC": 0, "FEW": 1, "SCT": 2, "BKN": 3, "OVC": 4, "VV": 5}
+    best_rank = -1
+
+    for token in tokens:
+        m = _CLOUD_RE.match(token)
+        if not m:
+            continue
+        code = m.group(1)
+        score = rank.get(code, -1)
+        if score > best_rank:
+            best_rank = score
+            best = code
+
+    if best:
+        return best
+
+    if isinstance(fallback_clouds, list):
+        for row in fallback_clouds:
+            if not isinstance(row, dict):
+                continue
+            code = str(row.get("cover") or "").upper().strip()
+            if not code:
+                continue
+            score = rank.get(code, -1)
+            if score > best_rank:
+                best_rank = score
+                best = code
+    return best
+
+
+def describe_metar_report(
+    raw_metar: str,
+    temp_symbol: str = "°C",
+    fallback: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None,
+) -> str:
+    """
+    Convert METAR bulletin into deterministic human-language description.
+    Style is inspired by rp5 bulletin narration: temperature, cloud, pressure, wind.
+    """
+    fallback = fallback or {}
+    raw = str(raw_metar or "").strip().upper()
+    tokens = [token for token in raw.split() if token]
+    if not tokens and not fallback:
+        return ""
+
+    station = _pick_station(tokens) or str(fallback.get("icao") or "").upper().strip()
+    station_name = str(fallback.get("station_name") or "").strip()
+
+    wind_dir = _safe_float(fallback.get("wind_dir"))
+    wind_kt = _safe_float(fallback.get("wind_speed_kt"))
+    wind_var: Optional[Tuple[float, float]] = None
+    for token in tokens:
+        m = _WIND_TOKEN_RE.match(token)
+        if not m:
+            continue
+        dir_token = m.group(1)
+        spd_token = m.group(2)
+        if dir_token != "VRB":
+            wind_dir = _safe_float(dir_token)
+        wind_kt = _safe_float(spd_token)
+        break
+    for token in tokens:
+        mv = _WIND_VAR_RE.match(token)
+        if mv:
+            left = _safe_float(mv.group(1))
+            right = _safe_float(mv.group(2))
+            if left is not None and right is not None:
+                wind_var = (left, right)
+            break
+
+    temp_c = None
+    for token in tokens:
+        tm = _TEMP_DEW_RE.match(token)
+        if tm:
+            temp_c = _parse_metar_signed_temp(tm.group(1))
+            break
+    fallback_temp = _safe_float(fallback.get("temp"))
+    if temp_c is None and fallback_temp is not None:
+        temp_c = fallback_temp if temp_symbol == "°C" else (fallback_temp - 32.0) * 5.0 / 9.0
+
+    pressure_hpa = None
+    for token in tokens:
+        qm = _PRESSURE_Q_RE.match(token)
+        if qm:
+            pressure_hpa = _safe_float(qm.group(1))
+            break
+        am = _PRESSURE_A_RE.match(token)
+        if am:
+            inhg = _safe_float(am.group(1))
+            if inhg is not None:
+                pressure_hpa = (inhg / 100.0) * 33.8639
+            break
+    if pressure_hpa is None:
+        altim = _safe_float(fallback.get("altimeter"))
+        if altim is not None:
+            pressure_hpa = altim * 33.8639 if altim < 200 else altim
+
+    cloud_code = _best_cloud_code(tokens, fallback.get("clouds"))
+    cloud_desc = _CLOUD_DESC.get(cloud_code, "")
+
+    wx_desc = ""
+    wx_raw = str(fallback.get("wx_desc") or "").upper().strip()
+    if wx_raw:
+        for key, value in _WEATHER_DESC.items():
+            if key in wx_raw:
+                wx_desc = value
+                break
+    if not wx_desc:
+        for token in tokens:
+            if not _WX_CODE_RE.match(token):
+                continue
+            for key, value in _WEATHER_DESC.items():
+                if key in token:
+                    wx_desc = value
+                    break
+            if wx_desc:
+                break
+
+    station_label = ""
+    if station:
+        station_label = f"{station} 机场"
+    elif station_name:
+        station_label = station_name
+    else:
+        station_label = "机场"
+
+    parts = []
+    if temp_c is not None:
+        display_temp = temp_c if temp_symbol == "°C" else temp_c * 9.0 / 5.0 + 32.0
+        parts.append(f"{station_label} {_format_temp(display_temp, temp_symbol)}")
+    else:
+        parts.append(station_label)
+
+    if cloud_desc:
+        parts.append(cloud_desc)
+
+    if pressure_hpa is not None:
+        parts.append(_pressure_desc(pressure_hpa))
+
+    if wind_kt is not None:
+        wind_ms = float(wind_kt) * 0.514444
+        wind_level = _wind_level_desc(wind_ms)
+        if wind_dir is not None:
+            wind_sentence = (
+                f"从{_direction_desc(wind_dir)}吹来的{wind_level}"
+                f"({_format_ms(wind_ms)}米/秒)"
+            )
+        else:
+            wind_sentence = f"{wind_level}({_format_ms(wind_ms)}米/秒)"
+        if wind_var is not None:
+            left, right = wind_var
+            wind_sentence += (
+                f"，风向在{_direction_desc(left)}与{_direction_desc(right)}之间摆动"
+            )
+        parts.append(wind_sentence)
+
+    if wx_desc:
+        parts.append(wx_desc)
+
+    if "NOSIG" in tokens:
+        parts.append("短时无显著变化")
+
+    text = "，".join([p for p in parts if str(p or "").strip()])
+    return f"{text}。" if text else ""
@@ -0,0 +1,341 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import re
+import unicodedata
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from html import unescape
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
+from urllib.parse import quote, unquote, urljoin
+
+import requests
+
+DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_SEC = 20
+DEFAULT_UA = (
+    "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) "
+    "AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) "
+    "Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36"
+)
+
+_TABLE_BY_ID_RE = r'(?is)<table\b[^>]*\bid=["\']{table_id}["\'][^>]*>.*?</table>'
+_ROW_RE = re.compile(r"(?is)<tr\b[^>]*>.*?</tr>")
+_CELL_RE = re.compile(r"(?is)<(td|th)\b([^>]*)>(.*?)</\1>")
+_TITLE_RE = re.compile(r"(?is)<title>(.*?)</title>")
+_COLSPAN_RE = re.compile(r'(?is)\bcolspan\s*=\s*["\']?(\d+)')
+_SPACE_RE = re.compile(r"\s+")
+_TAG_RE = re.compile(r"(?is)<[^>]+>")
+_NUM_RE = re.compile(r"[+-]?\d+(?:\.\d+)?")
+
+RP5_BASE_URL = "https://rp5.am"
+RP5_CITY_URL_OVERRIDES: Dict[str, str] = {
+    # City pages that do not resolve correctly via simple /Weather_in_<City>
+    "london": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_London%2C_St._James%27s_Park",
+    "paris": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Paris,_France",
+    "toronto": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Toronto,_Canada",
+    "new york": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_New_York,_USA",
+    "warsaw": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Warsaw%2C_Okecie_%28airport%29",
+    "dallas": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Dallas%2C_Love_Field_%28airport%29",
+    "miami": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Miami_%28airport%29%2C_Florida",
+    "atlanta": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Atlanta%2C_Georgia",
+    "sao paulo": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Sao_Paulo",
+    "hong kong": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Hong_Kong_%28airport%29",
+    "singapore": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Singapore_%28airport%29",
+    "madrid": "https://rp5.am/Weather_in_Madrid,_Barajas_(airport)",
+}
+
+
+def _strip_html(raw: str) -> str:
+    text = re.sub(r"(?is)<(script|style)\b[^>]*>.*?</\1>", " ", raw)
+    text = _TAG_RE.sub(" ", text)
+    text = unescape(text).replace("\xa0", " ")
+    return _SPACE_RE.sub(" ", text).strip()
+
+
+def _extract_title(html: str) -> str:
+    match = _TITLE_RE.search(html)
+    if not match:
+        return ""
+    return _strip_html(match.group(1))
+
+
+def _extract_table_html(html: str, table_id: str) -> str:
+    pattern = re.compile(_TABLE_BY_ID_RE.format(table_id=re.escape(table_id)))
+    match = pattern.search(html)
+    return match.group(0) if match else ""
+
+
+def _parse_cells(row_html: str) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    cells: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+    for match in _CELL_RE.finditer(row_html):
+        attrs = match.group(2) or ""
+        inner = match.group(3) or ""
+        colspan_match = _COLSPAN_RE.search(attrs)
+        colspan = int(colspan_match.group(1)) if colspan_match else 1
+        text = _strip_html(inner)
+        cells.append({"text": text, "colspan": max(1, colspan)})
+    return cells
+
+
+def _parse_table(table_html: str) -> List[List[Dict[str, Any]]]:
+    rows: List[List[Dict[str, Any]]] = []
+    for row_match in _ROW_RE.finditer(table_html):
+        row_cells = _parse_cells(row_match.group(0))
+        if row_cells:
+            rows.append(row_cells)
+    return rows
+
+
+def _expand_row_values(cells: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> List[str]:
+    expanded: List[str] = []
+    for cell in cells:
+        expanded.extend([cell.get("text", "")] * int(cell.get("colspan") or 1))
+    return expanded
+
+
+def _to_float_first(text: str) -> Optional[float]:
+    if not text:
+        return None
+    values = _NUM_RE.findall(text)
+    if not values:
+        return None
+    try:
+        return float(values[0])
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+
+
+def _to_float_last(text: str) -> Optional[float]:
+    if not text:
+        return None
+    values = _NUM_RE.findall(text)
+    if not values:
+        return None
+    try:
+        return float(values[-1])
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+
+
+def _find_row(rows: List[List[Dict[str, Any]]], prefix: str) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    low = prefix.lower()
+    for row in rows:
+        if not row:
+            continue
+        label = str(row[0].get("text") or "").strip().lower()
+        if label.startswith(low):
+            return row
+    return []
+
+
+def _build_timeseries(rows: List[List[Dict[str, Any]]]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    if len(rows) < 2:
+        return []
+
+    header_row = rows[0]
+    local_row = _find_row(rows, "Local time")
+    if not header_row or not local_row:
+        return []
+
+    day_slots = _expand_row_values(header_row)
+    time_slots = _expand_row_values(local_row[1:])
+    slot_count = min(len(day_slots), len(time_slots))
+    if slot_count <= 0:
+        return []
+
+    day_slots = day_slots[:slot_count]
+    time_slots = time_slots[:slot_count]
+
+    temp_row = _find_row(rows, "Temperature")
+    pressure_row = _find_row(rows, "Pressure")
+    wind_speed_row = _find_row(rows, "Wind: speed")
+    wind_dir_row = _find_row(rows, "direction")
+    humidity_row = _find_row(rows, "Humidity")
+    precip_row = _find_row(rows, "Precipitation")
+
+    temp_values = _expand_row_values(temp_row[1:])[:slot_count] if temp_row else [""] * slot_count
+    pressure_values = _expand_row_values(pressure_row[1:])[:slot_count] if pressure_row else [""] * slot_count
+    wind_speed_values = _expand_row_values(wind_speed_row[1:])[:slot_count] if wind_speed_row else [""] * slot_count
+    wind_dir_values = _expand_row_values(wind_dir_row[1:])[:slot_count] if wind_dir_row else [""] * slot_count
+    humidity_values = _expand_row_values(humidity_row[1:])[:slot_count] if humidity_row else [""] * slot_count
+    precip_values = _expand_row_values(precip_row[1:])[:slot_count] if precip_row else [""] * slot_count
+
+    out: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+    for idx in range(slot_count):
+        entry = {
+            "day_label": day_slots[idx],
+            "local_time": time_slots[idx],
+            "temp_c": _to_float_first(temp_values[idx]),
+            "pressure_hpa": _to_float_last(pressure_values[idx]),
+            "wind_mps": _to_float_first(wind_speed_values[idx]),
+            "wind_dir": (wind_dir_values[idx] or "").strip() or None,
+            "humidity_pct": _to_float_first(humidity_values[idx]),
+            "precip_mm": _to_float_first(precip_values[idx]),
+        }
+        out.append(entry)
+    return out
+
+
+def _extract_summary(html: str) -> str:
+    block = re.search(
+        r"(?is)<b\b[^>]*>\s*Today we expect.*?</b>",
+        html,
+    )
+    if block:
+        return _strip_html(block.group(0))
+
+    idx = html.find("Today we expect")
+    if idx < 0:
+        return ""
+    chunk = html[idx : idx + 1400]
+    text = _strip_html(chunk)
+    match = re.search(r"Today we expect.*?(?:Tomorrow:.*?$)", text, re.I)
+    if match:
+        return match.group(0).strip()
+    return ""
+
+
+def _extract_weather_links(html: str) -> List[str]:
+    links = re.findall(r'(?is)href=["\'](/Weather_in_[^"\']+)["\']', html)
+    seen = set()
+    out = []
+    for link in links:
+        if link in seen:
+            continue
+        seen.add(link)
+        out.append(link)
+    return out
+
+
+def _normalize_for_match(value: str) -> str:
+    text = unquote(str(value or "")).lower()
+    text = unicodedata.normalize("NFKD", text)
+    text = "".join(ch for ch in text if not unicodedata.combining(ch))
+    text = re.sub(r"[^a-z0-9]+", " ", text)
+    return re.sub(r"\s+", " ", text).strip()
+
+
+def _score_weather_link(link: str, city_hint: str) -> int:
+    low_raw = unquote(str(link or "")).lower()
+    low = _normalize_for_match(link)
+    city_norm = _normalize_for_match(city_hint)
+    words = [w for w in city_norm.split() if len(w) >= 3]
+    matched = sum(1 for w in words if w in low)
+    exact_phrase = bool(city_norm and city_norm in low)
+    starts_with_city = bool(city_norm and low.startswith(f"weather in {city_norm}"))
+    tokens = set(low.split())
+    has_airport = "airport" in tokens
+
+    if words and matched == 0:
+        return -300
+
+    score = 0
+    score += matched * 30
+    if exact_phrase:
+        score += 20
+    if starts_with_city:
+        score += 20
+    if has_airport:
+        score += 35 if matched > 0 else -60
+    if "_region" in low_raw:
+        score -= 20
+    if "_district" in low_raw:
+        score -= 25
+    if "_county" in low_raw or "_province" in low_raw:
+        score -= 15
+    for bad in [
+        "weather_in_the_world",
+        "weather_in_russia",
+        "weather_in_ukraine",
+        "weather_in_belarus",
+        "weather_in_lithuania",
+    ]:
+        if bad in low_raw:
+            score -= 120
+    return score
+
+
+def build_rp5_city_url_candidates(city_name: str, city_key: str = "") -> List[str]:
+    key = str(city_key or city_name).strip().lower()
+    name = str(city_name or city_key).strip()
+    out: List[str] = []
+
+    if key in RP5_CITY_URL_OVERRIDES:
+        out.append(RP5_CITY_URL_OVERRIDES[key])
+
+    if name:
+        tokens = [name.replace(" ", "_"), name]
+        for token in tokens:
+            out.append(f"{RP5_BASE_URL}/Weather_in_{quote(token)}")
+
+    # Keep order, deduplicate.
+    seen = set()
+    unique: List[str] = []
+    for item in out:
+        if item in seen:
+            continue
+        seen.add(item)
+        unique.append(item)
+    return unique
+
+
+def scrape_rp5_forecast(
+    url: str,
+    timeout_sec: int = DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_SEC,
+    city_hint: str = "",
+    max_hops: int = 2,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    sess = requests.Session()
+    headers = {
+        "User-Agent": DEFAULT_UA,
+        "Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.9",
+    }
+    visited = set()
+    current_url = url
+    last_payload: Dict[str, Any] = {}
+
+    for _ in range(max(1, int(max_hops))):
+        if current_url in visited:
+            break
+        visited.add(current_url)
+
+        resp = sess.get(current_url, timeout=timeout_sec, headers=headers)
+        resp.raise_for_status()
+        html = resp.text
+
+        table_html = _extract_table_html(html, "forecastTable")
+        rows = _parse_table(table_html) if table_html else []
+        points = _build_timeseries(rows)
+
+        last_payload = {
+            "source": "rp5_html",
+            "url": url,
+            "resolved_url": resp.url,
+            "fetched_at_utc": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+            "title": _extract_title(html),
+            "summary": _extract_summary(html),
+            "points": points,
+        }
+        if points:
+            return last_payload
+
+        links = _extract_weather_links(html)
+        if not links:
+            break
+        ranked = sorted(
+            links,
+            key=lambda item: _score_weather_link(item, city_hint),
+            reverse=True,
+        )
+        best = ranked[0]
+        if _score_weather_link(best, city_hint) < 1:
+            break
+        current_url = urljoin(resp.url, best)
+
+    return last_payload or {
+        "source": "rp5_html",
+        "url": url,
+        "resolved_url": url,
+        "fetched_at_utc": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+        "title": "",
+        "summary": "",
+        "points": [],
+    }
@@ -7,6 +7,10 @@ import threading
 from typing import Optional, Dict, List, Any
 from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
 from loguru import logger
+from src.data_collection.rp5_scraper import (
+    build_rp5_city_url_candidates,
+    scrape_rp5_forecast,
+)


 class WeatherDataCollector:
@@ -67,6 +71,13 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
        self.open_meteo_multi_model_cache_ttl_sec = int(
            os.getenv("OPEN_METEO_MULTI_MODEL_CACHE_TTL_SEC", "900")
        )
+        self.multi_model_cache_version = str(
+            os.getenv("OPEN_METEO_MULTI_MODEL_CACHE_VERSION", "v2")
+        ).strip() or "v2"
+        self.rp5_multi_model_enabled = str(
+            os.getenv("RP5_MULTI_MODEL_ENABLED", "true")
+        ).strip().lower() in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"}
+        self.rp5_timeout_sec = max(5, int(os.getenv("RP5_HTTP_TIMEOUT_SEC", "20")))
        self._open_meteo_cache: Dict[str, Dict] = {}
        self._ensemble_cache: Dict[str, Dict] = {}
        self._multi_model_cache: Dict[str, Dict] = {}
@@ -1685,10 +1696,109 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
                    return fallback
            return None

+    def _merge_rp5_into_daily_forecasts(
+        self,
+        city: str,
+        dates: List[str],
+        daily_forecasts: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]],
+        use_fahrenheit: bool,
+    ) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        """
+        Scrape RP5 public forecast page and merge as an extra model line ("RP5").
+        """
+        if not self.rp5_multi_model_enabled:
+            return None
+        city_key = str(city or "").strip().lower()
+        if not city_key:
+            return None
+
+        city_meta = self.CITY_REGISTRY.get(city_key, {})
+        city_name = str(city_meta.get("name") or city).strip()
+        candidates = build_rp5_city_url_candidates(city_name=city_name, city_key=city_key)
+        if not candidates:
+            return None
+
+        payload: Dict[str, Any] = {}
+        points: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+        for url in candidates:
+            try:
+                probe = scrape_rp5_forecast(
+                    url=url,
+                    timeout_sec=self.rp5_timeout_sec,
+                    city_hint=city_name,
+                    max_hops=3,
+                )
+            except Exception as exc:
+                logger.debug(f"RP5 scrape failed city={city_name} url={url}: {exc}")
+                continue
+            p = probe.get("points")
+            if isinstance(p, list) and p:
+                payload = probe
+                points = p
+                break
+
+        if not points:
+            return None
+
+        by_label: Dict[str, float] = {}
+        ordered_labels: List[str] = []
+        for row in points:
+            if not isinstance(row, dict):
+                continue
+            label = str(row.get("day_label") or "").strip()
+            if not label:
+                continue
+            temp_c = row.get("temp_c")
+            if temp_c is None:
+                continue
+            try:
+                temp_c_val = float(temp_c)
+            except Exception:
+                continue
+            if label not in by_label:
+                by_label[label] = temp_c_val
+                ordered_labels.append(label)
+            elif temp_c_val > by_label[label]:
+                by_label[label] = temp_c_val
+
+        if not ordered_labels:
+            return None
+
+        mapped_values: List[float] = [by_label[k] for k in ordered_labels]
+        mapped_count = min(len(dates), len(mapped_values))
+        for idx in range(mapped_count):
+            date_key = dates[idx]
+            value_c = mapped_values[idx]
+            value = value_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if use_fahrenheit else value_c
+            day_bucket = daily_forecasts.setdefault(date_key, {})
+            day_bucket["RP5"] = round(value, 1)
+
+        if not dates and mapped_values:
+            # Fallback: if Open-Meteo dates missing unexpectedly, create today bucket.
+            today_key = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+            value_c = mapped_values[0]
+            value = value_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if use_fahrenheit else value_c
+            daily_forecasts.setdefault(today_key, {})["RP5"] = round(value, 1)
+
+        logger.info(
+            "RP5 merged city={} mapped_days={} url={}",
+            city_name,
+            mapped_count if dates else 1,
+            payload.get("resolved_url") or payload.get("url") or "",
+        )
+        return {
+            "source": "rp5_html",
+            "url": payload.get("url"),
+            "resolved_url": payload.get("resolved_url"),
+            "summary": payload.get("summary"),
+            "mapped_labels": ordered_labels[:mapped_count] if dates else ordered_labels[:1],
+        }
+
    def fetch_multi_model(
        self,
        lat: float,
        lon: float,
+        city: str = "",
        use_fahrenheit: bool = False,
    ) -> Optional[Dict]:
        """
@@ -1704,9 +1814,10 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:

        返回 3 天的预报数据，支持今日+明日共识分析
        """
+        cache_city = str(city or "").strip().lower()
        cache_key = (
-            f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:"
-            f"{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}"
+            f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:{cache_city}:"
+            f"{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}:{self.multi_model_cache_version}"
        )
        self._maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache()
        now_ts = time.time()
@@ -1777,6 +1888,13 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
                if day_data:
                    daily_forecasts[date_str] = day_data

+            rp5_meta = self._merge_rp5_into_daily_forecasts(
+                city=city,
+                dates=dates,
+                daily_forecasts=daily_forecasts,
+                use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit,
+            )
+
            if not daily_forecasts:
                logger.warning("Multi-model: 无有效模型数据")
                return None
@@ -1795,6 +1913,7 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
                "forecasts": forecasts,  # 今天 {"ECMWF": 12.3, "GFS": 11.8, ...} (向后兼容)
                "daily_forecasts": daily_forecasts,  # 按天 {"2026-02-23": {...}, "2026-02-24": {...}}
                "dates": dates,
+                "rp5": rp5_meta or {},
                "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius",
            }
            with self._multi_model_cache_lock:
@@ -2034,7 +2153,10 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
            unit = "f" if use_fahrenheit else "c"
            open_meteo_key = f"{base}:14:{unit}"
            ensemble_key = f"{base}:{unit}"
-            multi_model_key = ensemble_key
+            cache_city = str(city or "").strip().lower()
+            multi_model_key = (
+                f"{base}:{cache_city}:{unit}:{self.multi_model_cache_version}"
+            )

            with self._open_meteo_cache_lock:
                self._open_meteo_cache.pop(open_meteo_key, None)
@@ -2180,7 +2302,7 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:

                # 多模型预报 (所有城市通用，用于共识评分)
                mm_data = self.fetch_multi_model(
-                    lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit
+                    lat, lon, city=city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit
                )
                if mm_data:
                    results["multi_model"] = mm_data
@@ -2228,7 +2350,7 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
                if ens_data:
                    results["ensemble"] = ens_data
                mm_data = self.fetch_multi_model(
-                    lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit
+                    lat, lon, city=city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit
                )
                if mm_data:
                    results["multi_model"] = mm_data
@@ -36,6 +36,7 @@ from src.auth.supabase_entitlement import (
    SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT,
    extract_bearer_token,
 )
+from src.analysis.metar_narrator import describe_metar_report
 from src.database.db_manager import DBManager
 from src.payments import PAYMENT_CHECKOUT, PaymentCheckoutError

@@ -431,6 +432,29 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        except Exception:
            obs_time_str = str(obs_t)[:16]

+    settlement_today_obs = []
+    if use_settlement_current:
+        if obs_time_str and cur_temp is not None:
+            settlement_today_obs.append({"time": obs_time_str, "temp": cur_temp})
+        if (
+            max_temp_time
+            and max_so_far is not None
+            and str(max_temp_time) != str(obs_time_str)
+        ):
+            settlement_today_obs.append({"time": str(max_temp_time), "temp": max_so_far})
+
+    metar_today_obs_payload = (
+        []
+        if use_settlement_current
+        else [
+            {"time": t, "temp": v}
+            for t, v in (metar.get("today_obs", []) if metar else [])
+        ]
+    )
+    metar_recent_obs_payload = (
+        [] if use_settlement_current else (metar.get("recent_obs", []) if metar else [])
+    )
+
    # ── 3. Local time parsing ──
    local_time_full = om.get("current", {}).get("local_time", "")
    local_hour, local_minute = 12, 0
@@ -610,13 +634,12 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]:
    # This single call replaces the duplicate probability engine, dead market
    # detection, forecast bust grading, and AI context building.
    from src.analysis.trend_engine import analyze_weather_trend as _trend_analyze, calculate_prob_distribution
-    from src.analysis.ai_analyzer import get_ai_analysis

    probabilities = []
    mu = None
    ai_text = ""
    try:
-        _, ai_context, sd = _trend_analyze(raw, sym, city)
+        _, _ai_context, sd = _trend_analyze(raw, sym, city)

        # Use structured data from shared engine
        mu = sd.get("mu")
@@ -631,17 +654,23 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]:
            deb_val = sd["deb_prediction"]
            deb_weights = sd.get("deb_weights", "")

-        # Append multi-model divergence for AI
-        if current_forecasts and ai_context:
-            mm_str = " | ".join(
-                [f"{k}:{v}{sym}" for k, v in current_forecasts.items() if v]
-            )
-            ai_context += f"\n模型分歧: {mm_str}"
-
-        if ai_context:
-            ai_text = get_ai_analysis(ai_context, city, sym)
    except Exception as e:
-        logger.warning(f"Analysis/AI skipped for {city}: {e}")
+        logger.warning(f"Structured analysis skipped for {city}: {e}")
+
+    ai_text = describe_metar_report(
+        raw_metar=str(primary_current.get("raw_metar") or mc.get("raw_metar") or ""),
+        temp_symbol=sym,
+        fallback={
+            "icao": metar.get("icao"),
+            "station_name": metar.get("station_name"),
+            "temp": cur_temp,
+            "wind_speed_kt": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")),
+            "wind_dir": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_dir")),
+            "altimeter": _sf(primary_current.get("altimeter")),
+            "wx_desc": primary_current.get("wx_desc"),
+            "clouds": primary_current.get("clouds", []) or mc.get("clouds", []),
+        },
+    )

    # ── 12. Hourly data (today only, for chart) ──
    today_hourly: Dict[str, list] = {"times": [], "temps": [], "radiation": []}
@@ -911,11 +940,9 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        },
        "hourly": today_hourly,
        "hourly_next_48h": next_48h_hourly,
-        "metar_today_obs": [
-            {"time": t, "temp": v}
-            for t, v in (metar.get("today_obs", []) if metar else [])
-        ],
-        "metar_recent_obs": metar.get("recent_obs", []) if metar else [],
+        "metar_today_obs": metar_today_obs_payload,
+        "metar_recent_obs": metar_recent_obs_payload,
+        "settlement_today_obs": settlement_today_obs,
        "ai_analysis": ai_text,
        "updated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
    }
@@ -1138,6 +1165,7 @@ def _build_city_detail_payload(
        "timeseries": {
            "metar_recent_obs": data.get("metar_recent_obs") or [],
            "metar_today_obs": data.get("metar_today_obs") or [],
+            "settlement_today_obs": data.get("settlement_today_obs") or [],
            "hourly": data.get("hourly") or {},
            "mgm_hourly": (data.get("mgm") or {}).get("hourly", []),
            "forecast_daily": (data.get("forecast") or {}).get("daily", []),
@@ -1170,7 +1198,12 @@ async def city_history(request: Request, name: str):
    data = load_history(history_file)
    
    if name not in data:
-        return {"history": []}
+        source = str(CITIES.get(name, {}).get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower()
+        return {
+            "history": [],
+            "settlement_source": source,
+            "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get(source, source.upper()),
+        }
        
    city_data = data[name]
    out = []
@@ -1178,7 +1211,15 @@ async def city_history(request: Request, name: str):
        act = rec.get("actual_high")
        deb = rec.get("deb_prediction")
        mu = rec.get("mu")
-        mgm = rec.get("forecasts", {}).get("MGM")
+        forecasts_raw = rec.get("forecasts", {}) or {}
+        forecasts = {}
+        if isinstance(forecasts_raw, dict):
+            for model_name, model_value in forecasts_raw.items():
+                if _is_excluded_model_name(str(model_name)):
+                    continue
+                fv = _sf(model_value)
+                forecasts[str(model_name)] = fv if fv is not None else None
+        mgm = forecasts.get("MGM")
        
        # Only return items where we have at least an actual or a prediction
        out.append({
@@ -1187,8 +1228,14 @@ async def city_history(request: Request, name: str):
            "deb": float(deb) if deb is not None else None,
            "mu": float(mu) if mu is not None else None,
            "mgm": float(mgm) if mgm is not None else None,
+            "forecasts": forecasts,
        })
-    return {"history": out}
+    source = str(CITIES.get(name, {}).get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower()
+    return {
+        "history": out,
+        "settlement_source": source,
+        "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get(source, source.upper()),
+    }


@app.get("/api/auth/me")