Refine EMOS calibration and add Chinese training report

2026-03-20 21:17:37 +08:00
parent 1c84893bed
commit 03dcb4329b
6 changed files with 879 additions and 442 deletions
@@ -31,10 +31,17 @@ def _write_calibration(tmp_path: Path):
                "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0,
            },
        },
+        "sigma_constraints": {
+            "min_ratio": 0.85,
+            "max_ratio": 1.2,
+            "absolute_min": 0.25,
+            "absolute_max": 2.0,
+        },
        "cities": {
            "ankara": {
                "mu_bias": 0.5,
-                "sigma_scale": 1.0,
+                "sigma_scale": 2.0,
+                "confidence": 1.0,
            }
        },
        "metrics": {"sample_count": 10, "mean_crps": 0.4},
@@ -76,6 +83,7 @@ def test_shadow_mode_keeps_legacy_distribution(tmp_path):
    assert result["distribution"] == legacy_distribution
    assert result["shadow_distribution"]
    assert result["calibrated_mu"] == 10.5
+    assert result["calibrated_sigma"] == 1.2


 def test_primary_mode_switches_to_calibrated_distribution(tmp_path):
@@ -107,6 +115,7 @@ def test_primary_mode_switches_to_calibrated_distribution(tmp_path):
    assert result["mode"] == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY
    assert result["engine"] == "emos"
    assert result["calibrated_mu"] == 10.5
+    assert result["calibrated_sigma"] == 1.2
    assert result["distribution"]
    assert result["distribution"][0]["value"] >= 10