From 03dcb4329ba8acc18b9a46b8c7ec359cdba95fb9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "2569718930@qq.com" <2569718930@qq.com>
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2026 21:17:37 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] Refine EMOS calibration and add Chinese training report

---
 .../probability_calibration/default.json      |  29 +-
 .../evaluation_report.json                    | 118 +--
 .../shadow_report.json                        | 736 +++++++++---------
 docs/EMOS_TRAINING_REPORT_ZH.md               | 311 ++++++++
 src/analysis/probability_calibration.py       | 116 ++-
 tests/test_probability_calibration.py         |  11 +-
 6 files changed, 879 insertions(+), 442 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 docs/EMOS_TRAINING_REPORT_ZH.md

diff --git a/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json b/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
index 0c5fdb55..80ebc4b4 100644
--- a/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
+++ b/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
-  "version": "emos-20260320123829",
-  "trained_at": "2026-03-20T12:38:29.985991+00:00",
+  "version": "emos-20260320130245",
+  "trained_at": "2026-03-20T13:02:45.903772+00:00",
   "global": {
     "mu": {
       "intercept": -1.57406048,
@@ -17,9 +17,20 @@
       "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0
     }
   },
+  "sigma_constraints": {
+    "min_ratio": 0.85,
+    "max_ratio": 1.35,
+    "absolute_min": 0.25,
+    "absolute_max": 3.0
+  },
+  "selection_guardrails": {
+    "max_mae_increase": 0.02,
+    "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01,
+    "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05
+  },
   "blending": {
     "alpha_mu": 0.0,
-    "alpha_sigma": 1.0
+    "alpha_sigma": 0.0
   },
   "cities": {
     "ankara": {
@@ -145,15 +156,17 @@
   },
   "metrics": {
     "sample_count": 105,
-    "mean_crps": 2.744961,
+    "mean_crps": 2.923823,
     "legacy_mean_crps": 2.793938,
     "legacy_mean_mae": 2.721143,
     "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238,
-    "selected_mean_crps": 2.747094,
+    "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.775463,
+    "selected_mean_crps": 2.700275,
     "selected_mean_mae": 2.721143,
-    "selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.704762,
-    "selected_score": 3.609685,
-    "legacy_score": 3.675576,
+    "selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238,
+    "selected_bucket_brier": 0.765459,
+    "selected_score": 4.003626,
+    "legacy_score": 4.104792,
     "filled_actual_from_history": 2,
     "settlement_history_city_count": 30
   },
diff --git a/artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json b/artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json
index 8615dd0d..9bb1db0c 100644
--- a/artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json
+++ b/artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json
@@ -8,239 +8,239 @@
       "bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238
     },
     "emos": {
-      "mean_crps": 2.747094,
-      "mean_mae": 2.721143,
-      "bucket_hit_rate": 0.685714
+      "mean_crps": 2.650216,
+      "mean_mae": 2.722829,
+      "bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
     },
     "delta": {
-      "crps": -0.046843,
-      "mae": 0.0,
-      "bucket_hit_rate": -0.009524
+      "crps": -0.143722,
+      "mae": 0.001686,
+      "bucket_hit_rate": -0.028571
     }
   },
   "by_city": {
     "ankara": {
       "samples": 7,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 2.023242,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 2.259428,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 2.015458,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 1.984286,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 1.984286,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 1.977721,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.714286,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.714286
     },
     "atlanta": {
       "samples": 5,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 12.792034,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 12.537301,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 12.526108,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 12.806,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 12.806,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 12.919677,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
-      "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6
+      "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.4
     },
     "buenos aires": {
       "samples": 5,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 3.846144,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 3.745234,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 3.743967,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 4.168,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 4.168,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 4.086663,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6
     },
     "chicago": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 1.346667,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.66337,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.603128,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.0,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.075265,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "dallas": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 1.256111,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.651563,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.65514,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.0,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.114807,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "hong kong": {
       "samples": 3,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.261027,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.621432,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.269856,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.1,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.174879,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
     },
     "london": {
       "samples": 6,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 2.079624,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 1.986319,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 2.005311,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 2.451667,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 2.451667,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 2.327304,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.166667,
-      "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.166667
+      "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333
     },
     "lucknow": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 1.468528,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 1.523689,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 1.443159,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 1.6025,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 1.6025,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 1.682697,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
     },
     "madrid": {
       "samples": 2,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 6.27726,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 6.028088,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 6.090563,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 7.33,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 7.33,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 7.141649,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
     },
     "miami": {
       "samples": 5,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 11.665378,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 11.614409,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 11.493094,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 12.07,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 12.07,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 12.157623,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
-      "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6
+      "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.2
     },
     "milan": {
       "samples": 3,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 4.401392,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 3.905274,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 3.837715,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 4.06,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 4.06,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 3.942288,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
     },
     "munich": {
       "samples": 6,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 2.988583,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 2.892973,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 2.918299,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 3.143333,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 3.143333,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 3.126482,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
     },
     "new york": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 1.861101,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 1.420965,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 1.363203,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 1.3725,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 1.3725,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 1.369301,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.75,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.75
     },
     "paris": {
       "samples": 7,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 2.430082,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 2.23397,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 2.365416,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 2.518571,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 2.518571,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 2.48437,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.571429,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.571429
     },
     "sao paulo": {
       "samples": 5,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 2.454756,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 2.351014,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 2.410624,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 2.628,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 2.628,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 2.689909,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6
     },
     "seattle": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.531656,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.850792,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.457257,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.0,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.11262,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "seoul": {
       "samples": 6,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.328088,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.710725,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.332722,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.2,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.2,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.246659,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "shanghai": {
       "samples": 2,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.250034,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.463888,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.249952,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.15,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.15,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.204362,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "singapore": {
       "samples": 2,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.281993,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.484792,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.270875,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.15,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.15,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.070547,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "taipei": {
       "samples": 3,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.356996,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.538714,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.351432,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.1,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.084784,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
     },
     "tel aviv": {
       "samples": 2,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.446758,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.55971,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.434936,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.3,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.3,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.196589,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "tokyo": {
       "samples": 2,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.450128,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.565212,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.429389,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.25,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.25,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.100782,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     },
     "toronto": {
       "samples": 5,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 2.647861,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 2.402627,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 2.512236,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 2.532,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 2.532,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 2.535078,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6
     },
     "warsaw": {
       "samples": 3,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 1.618875,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 1.601375,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 1.545129,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 2.056667,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 2.056667,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 1.942917,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333
     },
     "wellington": {
       "samples": 6,
       "legacy_mean_crps": 0.266349,
-      "emos_mean_crps": 0.592134,
+      "emos_mean_crps": 0.264506,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.2,
-      "emos_mean_mae": 0.2,
+      "emos_mean_mae": 0.205623,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
     }
diff --git a/artifacts/probability_calibration/shadow_report.json b/artifacts/probability_calibration/shadow_report.json
index e9024688..9a200d12 100644
--- a/artifacts/probability_calibration/shadow_report.json
+++ b/artifacts/probability_calibration/shadow_report.json
@@ -1,439 +1,439 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-03-20T12:57:49.026408Z",
+  "generated_at": "2026-03-20T13:03:15.168560Z",
   "summary": {
     "samples": 103,
     "legacy_mean_mae": 1.839223,
-    "shadow_mean_mae": 1.839223,
+    "shadow_mean_mae": 1.851931,
     "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.669903,
-    "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.699029,
+    "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.679612,
     "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.462814,
-    "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.852666,
-    "delta_mae": 0.0,
-    "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.029126,
-    "delta_bucket_brier": 0.389852
+    "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.756649,
+    "delta_mae": 0.012708,
+    "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.009709,
+    "delta_bucket_brier": 0.293835
   },
   "by_city": {
     "ankara": {
       "samples": 7,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 1.984286,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 1.984286,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 1.977721,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.714286,
       "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.714286,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.484311,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.866985,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.793303,
+      "delta_mae": -0.006565,
       "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.382674
+      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.308992
     },
     "atlanta": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 4.265,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 4.265,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 4.558028,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.75,
-      "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.75,
+      "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.257274,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.898147,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.640873
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.858699,
+      "delta_mae": 0.293028,
+      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.25,
+      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.601425
     },
     "buenos aires": {
       "samples": 5,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 4.168,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 4.168,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 4.086663,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
       "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.501444,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.902177,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.820713,
+      "delta_mae": -0.081337,
       "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.400733
+      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.319269
     },
     "chicago": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 0.075265,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.0,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.775841,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.746156,
+      "delta_mae": 0.075265,
       "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.775841
+      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.746156
     },
     "dallas": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 0.114807,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.0,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.777109,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.778678,
+      "delta_mae": 0.114807,
       "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.777109
+      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.778678
     },
     "hong kong": {
       "samples": 3,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 0.1,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 0.174879,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
       "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.882203,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.769924,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.463809,
+      "delta_mae": 0.074879,
       "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333334,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": -0.112279
+      "delta_bucket_brier": -0.418394
     },
     "london": {
       "samples": 6,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 2.451667,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 2.451667,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 2.327304,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.166667,
-      "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.166667,
+      "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.988538,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.930277,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": -0.058261
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.879058,
+      "delta_mae": -0.124363,
+      "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.166666,
+      "delta_bucket_brier": -0.10948
     },
     "lucknow": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 1.6025,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 1.6025,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 1.682697,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
       "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.836804,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.874793,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.832969,
+      "delta_mae": 0.080197,
       "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": 0.037989
+      "delta_bucket_brier": -0.003835
     },
     "madrid": {
       "samples": 2,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 7.33,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 7.33,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 7.141649,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
       "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 1.148213,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 1.095556,
-      "delta_mae": 0.0,
+      "shadow_bucket_brier": 1.131778,
+      "delta_mae": -0.188351,
       "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
-      "delta_bucket_brier": -0.052657
+      "delta_bucket_brier": -0.016435
     },
     "miami": {
       "samples": 4,
       "legacy_mean_mae": 2.76,
-      "shadow_mean_mae": 2.76,
+      "shadow_mean_mae": 3.001559,
       "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.75,
-      "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.75,
+      "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.25,
       "legacy_bucket_brier": 0.295651,
-      "shadow_bucket_brier": 0.871341,
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@@ -443,10 +443,10 @@
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@@ -455,10 +455,10 @@
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@@ -467,10 +467,10 @@
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@@ -491,10 +491,10 @@
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@@ -539,10 +539,10 @@
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@@ -551,10 +551,10 @@
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@@ -563,10 +563,10 @@
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@@ -575,10 +575,10 @@
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@@ -587,10 +587,10 @@
       "actual_high": 5.0,
       "actual_bucket": 5,
       "legacy_mu": 16.58,
-      "shadow_mu": 16.58,
+      "shadow_mu": 16.346,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 17,
-      "shadow_top_bucket": 17,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "shadow_top_bucket": 16,
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -599,10 +599,10 @@
       "actual_high": 8.0,
       "actual_bucket": 8,
       "legacy_mu": 18.23,
-      "shadow_mu": 18.23,
+      "shadow_mu": 18.028,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 18,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 18,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -611,10 +611,10 @@
       "actual_high": 30.0,
       "actual_bucket": 30,
       "legacy_mu": 35.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 35.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 35.222,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 35,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 35,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -623,10 +623,10 @@
       "actual_high": 8.0,
       "actual_bucket": 8,
       "legacy_mu": 15.71,
-      "shadow_mu": 15.71,
+      "shadow_mu": 15.58,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 16,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 16,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -635,10 +635,10 @@
       "actual_high": 27.3,
       "actual_bucket": 27,
       "legacy_mu": 27.6,
-      "shadow_mu": 27.6,
+      "shadow_mu": 27.65,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 28,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 27,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -647,10 +647,10 @@
       "actual_high": 16.0,
       "actual_bucket": 16,
       "legacy_mu": 27.39,
-      "shadow_mu": 27.39,
+      "shadow_mu": 27.105,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 27,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 27,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -659,10 +659,10 @@
       "actual_high": 11.0,
       "actual_bucket": 11,
       "legacy_mu": 11.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 11.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 10.989,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 11,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 11,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -671,10 +671,10 @@
       "actual_high": 21.0,
       "actual_bucket": 21,
       "legacy_mu": 21.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 21.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 21.031,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 21,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 21,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -683,10 +683,10 @@
       "actual_high": 13.0,
       "actual_bucket": 13,
       "legacy_mu": 13.84,
-      "shadow_mu": 13.84,
+      "shadow_mu": 13.682,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 14,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 14,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -695,10 +695,10 @@
       "actual_high": -6.0,
       "actual_bucket": -6,
       "legacy_mu": -1.01,
-      "shadow_mu": -1.01,
+      "shadow_mu": -1.101,
       "legacy_top_bucket": -1,
       "shadow_top_bucket": -1,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -707,10 +707,10 @@
       "actual_high": 17.0,
       "actual_bucket": 17,
       "legacy_mu": 17.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 17.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 16.969,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 17,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 17,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -719,10 +719,10 @@
       "actual_high": 30.0,
       "actual_bucket": 30,
       "legacy_mu": 30.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 30.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 30.235,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 30,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 30,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -731,10 +731,10 @@
       "actual_high": 29.0,
       "actual_bucket": 29,
       "legacy_mu": 29.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 29.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 28.978,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 29,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 28,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -743,10 +743,10 @@
       "actual_high": 32.0,
       "actual_bucket": 32,
       "legacy_mu": 32.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 32.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 31.975,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 32,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 32,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -755,10 +755,10 @@
       "actual_high": 13.0,
       "actual_bucket": 13,
       "legacy_mu": 13.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 13.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 12.87,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 13,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 13,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -767,10 +767,10 @@
       "actual_high": 8.0,
       "actual_bucket": 8,
       "legacy_mu": 8.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 8.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 7.891,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 8,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 8,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -779,10 +779,10 @@
       "actual_high": 55.9,
       "actual_bucket": 56,
       "legacy_mu": 55.9,
-      "shadow_mu": 55.9,
+      "shadow_mu": 55.705,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 56,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 56,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -791,10 +791,10 @@
       "actual_high": 22.0,
       "actual_bucket": 22,
       "legacy_mu": 29.64,
-      "shadow_mu": 29.64,
+      "shadow_mu": 29.517,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 30,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 30,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -803,10 +803,10 @@
       "actual_high": 14.0,
       "actual_bucket": 14,
       "legacy_mu": 14.47,
-      "shadow_mu": 14.47,
+      "shadow_mu": 14.319,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 14,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -815,10 +815,10 @@
       "actual_high": 32.0,
       "actual_bucket": 32,
       "legacy_mu": 36.94,
-      "shadow_mu": 36.94,
+      "shadow_mu": 36.759,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 37,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 37,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -827,10 +827,10 @@
       "actual_high": 10.0,
       "actual_bucket": 10,
       "legacy_mu": 10.66,
-      "shadow_mu": 10.66,
+      "shadow_mu": 10.516,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 11,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -839,10 +839,10 @@
       "actual_high": 14.0,
       "actual_bucket": 14,
       "legacy_mu": 14.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 14.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 14.162,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 14,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -851,10 +851,10 @@
       "actual_high": 59.0,
       "actual_bucket": 59,
       "legacy_mu": 70.04,
-      "shadow_mu": 70.04,
+      "shadow_mu": 69.507,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 70,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -863,10 +863,10 @@
       "actual_high": 14.0,
       "actual_bucket": 14,
       "legacy_mu": 18.43,
-      "shadow_mu": 18.43,
+      "shadow_mu": 18.255,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 18,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -875,10 +875,10 @@
       "actual_high": 34.0,
       "actual_bucket": 34,
       "legacy_mu": 35.11,
-      "shadow_mu": 35.11,
+      "shadow_mu": 35.025,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 35,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -887,10 +887,10 @@
       "actual_high": 16.0,
       "actual_bucket": 16,
       "legacy_mu": 16.56,
-      "shadow_mu": 16.56,
+      "shadow_mu": 16.414,
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-      "shadow_top_bucket": 17,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "shadow_top_bucket": 16,
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -899,10 +899,10 @@
       "actual_high": 27.8,
       "actual_bucket": 27,
       "legacy_mu": 27.8,
-      "shadow_mu": 27.8,
+      "shadow_mu": 27.878,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 27,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -911,10 +911,10 @@
       "actual_high": 73.9,
       "actual_bucket": 74,
       "legacy_mu": 73.9,
-      "shadow_mu": 73.9,
+      "shadow_mu": 73.578,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 74,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -923,10 +923,10 @@
       "actual_high": 46.0,
       "actual_bucket": 46,
       "legacy_mu": 46.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 46.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 45.992,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 46,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 46,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -935,10 +935,10 @@
       "actual_high": 17.0,
       "actual_bucket": 17,
       "legacy_mu": 26.15,
-      "shadow_mu": 26.15,
+      "shadow_mu": 25.927,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 26,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -947,10 +947,10 @@
       "actual_high": 37.0,
       "actual_bucket": 37,
       "legacy_mu": 54.06,
-      "shadow_mu": 54.06,
+      "shadow_mu": 53.706,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 54,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -959,10 +959,10 @@
       "actual_high": 15.0,
       "actual_bucket": 15,
       "legacy_mu": 15.2,
-      "shadow_mu": 15.2,
+      "shadow_mu": 15.032,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 15,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -971,10 +971,10 @@
       "actual_high": 11.0,
       "actual_bucket": 11,
       "legacy_mu": 11.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 11.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 11.259,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 11,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 11,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -983,10 +983,10 @@
       "actual_high": 26.7,
       "actual_bucket": 26,
       "legacy_mu": 26.7,
-      "shadow_mu": 26.7,
+      "shadow_mu": 26.669,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 27,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 26,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -995,10 +995,10 @@
       "actual_high": 17.0,
       "actual_bucket": 17,
       "legacy_mu": 17.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 17.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 17.319,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 17,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1007,10 +1007,10 @@
       "actual_high": 24.0,
       "actual_bucket": 24,
       "legacy_mu": 24.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 24.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 23.903,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 23,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1019,10 +1019,10 @@
       "actual_high": 11.0,
       "actual_bucket": 11,
       "legacy_mu": 11.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 11.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 11.329,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 11,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1031,10 +1031,10 @@
       "actual_high": 21.0,
       "actual_bucket": 21,
       "legacy_mu": 21.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 21.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 21.396,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 21,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1043,10 +1043,10 @@
       "actual_high": 7.0,
       "actual_bucket": 7,
       "legacy_mu": 12.8,
-      "shadow_mu": 12.8,
+      "shadow_mu": 12.658,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 13,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1055,10 +1055,10 @@
       "actual_high": 1.0,
       "actual_bucket": 1,
       "legacy_mu": 13.27,
-      "shadow_mu": 13.27,
+      "shadow_mu": 13.106,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 13,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1067,10 +1067,10 @@
       "actual_high": 16.0,
       "actual_bucket": 16,
       "legacy_mu": 16.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 16.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 16.228,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 16,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1079,10 +1079,10 @@
       "actual_high": 7.0,
       "actual_bucket": 7,
       "legacy_mu": 7.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 7.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 7.362,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 7,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1091,10 +1091,10 @@
       "actual_high": 12.0,
       "actual_bucket": 12,
       "legacy_mu": 15.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 15.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 15.175,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 15,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1103,10 +1103,10 @@
       "actual_high": 4.0,
       "actual_bucket": 4,
       "legacy_mu": 15.58,
-      "shadow_mu": 15.58,
+      "shadow_mu": 15.4,
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-      "shadow_top_bucket": 16,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "shadow_top_bucket": 15,
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1115,10 +1115,10 @@
       "actual_high": 10.0,
       "actual_bucket": 10,
       "legacy_mu": 13.18,
-      "shadow_mu": 13.18,
+      "shadow_mu": 13.058,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 13,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1127,10 +1127,10 @@
       "actual_high": 11.0,
       "actual_bucket": 11,
       "legacy_mu": 9.58,
-      "shadow_mu": 9.58,
+      "shadow_mu": 9.45,
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-      "shadow_top_bucket": 10,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "shadow_top_bucket": 9,
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1139,10 +1139,10 @@
       "actual_high": 18.0,
       "actual_bucket": 18,
       "legacy_mu": 18.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 18.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 17.94,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 18,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1151,10 +1151,10 @@
       "actual_high": 19.0,
       "actual_bucket": 19,
       "legacy_mu": 19.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 19.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 18.951,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 19,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1163,10 +1163,10 @@
       "actual_high": 8.0,
       "actual_bucket": 8,
       "legacy_mu": 8.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 8.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 7.995,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 8,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1175,10 +1175,10 @@
       "actual_high": 45.0,
       "actual_bucket": 45,
       "legacy_mu": 45.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 45.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 44.84,
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       "shadow_top_bucket": 45,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1187,10 +1187,10 @@
       "actual_high": 22.0,
       "actual_bucket": 22,
       "legacy_mu": 22.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 22.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 21.746,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 22,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 22,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1199,10 +1199,10 @@
       "actual_high": 18.0,
       "actual_bucket": 18,
       "legacy_mu": 18.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 18.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 17.922,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 18,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 18,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1211,10 +1211,10 @@
       "actual_high": 71.1,
       "actual_bucket": 71,
       "legacy_mu": 71.1,
-      "shadow_mu": 71.1,
+      "shadow_mu": 71.203,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 71,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 71,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1223,10 +1223,10 @@
       "actual_high": 15.0,
       "actual_bucket": 15,
       "legacy_mu": 15.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 15.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 14.882,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 15,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 15,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1235,10 +1235,10 @@
       "actual_high": 84.0,
       "actual_bucket": 84,
       "legacy_mu": 84.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 84.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 83.451,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 84,
-      "shadow_top_bucket": 84,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "shadow_top_bucket": 83,
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1247,10 +1247,10 @@
       "actual_high": 34.0,
       "actual_bucket": 34,
       "legacy_mu": 34.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 34.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 33.816,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 34,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 34,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1259,10 +1259,10 @@
       "actual_high": 15.0,
       "actual_bucket": 15,
       "legacy_mu": 15.13,
-      "shadow_mu": 15.13,
+      "shadow_mu": 14.987,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 15,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 15,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1271,10 +1271,10 @@
       "actual_high": 84.0,
       "actual_bucket": 84,
       "legacy_mu": 84.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 84.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 83.964,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 84,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 84,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1283,10 +1283,10 @@
       "actual_high": 72.0,
       "actual_bucket": 72,
       "legacy_mu": 72.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 72.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 71.829,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 72,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 72,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1295,10 +1295,10 @@
       "actual_high": 27.0,
       "actual_bucket": 27,
       "legacy_mu": 27.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 27.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 27.165,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 27,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 27,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1307,10 +1307,10 @@
       "actual_high": 77.0,
       "actual_bucket": 77,
       "legacy_mu": 77.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 77.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 76.347,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 77,
-      "shadow_top_bucket": 77,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "shadow_top_bucket": 76,
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1319,10 +1319,10 @@
       "actual_high": 8.0,
       "actual_bucket": 8,
       "legacy_mu": 8.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 8.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 7.924,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 8,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 8,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1331,10 +1331,10 @@
       "actual_high": 19.0,
       "actual_bucket": 19,
       "legacy_mu": 19.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 19.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 19.244,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 19,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 19,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1343,10 +1343,10 @@
       "actual_high": 13.0,
       "actual_bucket": 13,
       "legacy_mu": 13.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 13.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 12.912,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 13,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 13,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1355,10 +1355,10 @@
       "actual_high": 4.0,
       "actual_bucket": 4,
       "legacy_mu": 4.3,
-      "shadow_mu": 4.3,
+      "shadow_mu": 4.177,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 4,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 4,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1367,10 +1367,10 @@
       "actual_high": 53.1,
       "actual_bucket": 53,
       "legacy_mu": 53.1,
-      "shadow_mu": 53.1,
+      "shadow_mu": 53.122,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 53,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 53,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1379,10 +1379,10 @@
       "actual_high": 28.0,
       "actual_bucket": 28,
       "legacy_mu": 28.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 28.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 27.864,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 28,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 28,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1391,10 +1391,10 @@
       "actual_high": 16.0,
       "actual_bucket": 16,
       "legacy_mu": 16.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 16.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 15.854,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 16,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 16,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1403,10 +1403,10 @@
       "actual_high": 68.0,
       "actual_bucket": 68,
       "legacy_mu": 68.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 68.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 67.777,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 68,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 68,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1415,10 +1415,10 @@
       "actual_high": 14.0,
       "actual_bucket": 14,
       "legacy_mu": 14.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 14.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 13.81,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 14,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 14,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1427,10 +1427,10 @@
       "actual_high": 84.0,
       "actual_bucket": 84,
       "legacy_mu": 84.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 84.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 83.563,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 84,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 84,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1439,10 +1439,10 @@
       "actual_high": 32.0,
       "actual_bucket": 32,
       "legacy_mu": 32.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 32.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 31.701,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 32,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 32,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1451,10 +1451,10 @@
       "actual_high": 9.0,
       "actual_bucket": 9,
       "legacy_mu": 11.43,
-      "shadow_mu": 11.43,
+      "shadow_mu": 11.335,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 11,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 11,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1463,10 +1463,10 @@
       "actual_high": 75.0,
       "actual_bucket": 75,
       "legacy_mu": 75.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 75.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 75.041,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 75,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 75,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1475,10 +1475,10 @@
       "actual_high": 62.1,
       "actual_bucket": 62,
       "legacy_mu": 62.1,
-      "shadow_mu": 62.1,
+      "shadow_mu": 62.035,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 62,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 62,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1487,10 +1487,10 @@
       "actual_high": 27.0,
       "actual_bucket": 27,
       "legacy_mu": 27.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 27.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 26.817,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 27,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 27,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1499,10 +1499,10 @@
       "actual_high": 69.1,
       "actual_bucket": 69,
       "legacy_mu": 69.1,
-      "shadow_mu": 69.1,
+      "shadow_mu": 68.643,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 69,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 69,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1511,10 +1511,10 @@
       "actual_high": 8.0,
       "actual_bucket": 8,
       "legacy_mu": 8.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 8.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 7.952,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 8,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 8,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1523,10 +1523,10 @@
       "actual_high": 17.0,
       "actual_bucket": 17,
       "legacy_mu": 17.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 17.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 16.847,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 17,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 17,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1535,10 +1535,10 @@
       "actual_high": 54.0,
       "actual_bucket": 54,
       "legacy_mu": 54.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 54.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 53.926,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 54,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 54,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1547,10 +1547,10 @@
       "actual_high": 27.0,
       "actual_bucket": 27,
       "legacy_mu": 27.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 27.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 26.831,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 27,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 27,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1559,10 +1559,10 @@
       "actual_high": 17.0,
       "actual_bucket": 17,
       "legacy_mu": 17.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 17.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 16.896,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 17,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 17,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1571,10 +1571,10 @@
       "actual_high": 46.9,
       "actual_bucket": 47,
       "legacy_mu": 47.45,
-      "shadow_mu": 47.45,
+      "shadow_mu": 47.292,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 47,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 47,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1583,10 +1583,10 @@
       "actual_high": 16.0,
       "actual_bucket": 16,
       "legacy_mu": 16.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 16.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 15.916,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 16,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 16,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1595,10 +1595,10 @@
       "actual_high": 82.0,
       "actual_bucket": 82,
       "legacy_mu": 82.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 82.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 81.486,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 82,
-      "shadow_top_bucket": 82,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "shadow_top_bucket": 81,
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1607,10 +1607,10 @@
       "actual_high": 9.0,
       "actual_bucket": 9,
       "legacy_mu": 9.7,
-      "shadow_mu": 9.7,
+      "shadow_mu": 9.565,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 10,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 10,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1619,10 +1619,10 @@
       "actual_high": 75.0,
       "actual_bucket": 75,
       "legacy_mu": 75.0,
-      "shadow_mu": 75.0,
+      "shadow_mu": 74.939,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 75,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 75,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     },
     {
@@ -1631,10 +1631,10 @@
       "actual_high": 64.9,
       "actual_bucket": 65,
       "legacy_mu": 64.9,
-      "shadow_mu": 64.9,
+      "shadow_mu": 64.843,
       "legacy_top_bucket": 65,
       "shadow_top_bucket": 65,
-      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320123829",
+      "calibration_version": "emos-20260320130109",
       "calibration_mode": "emos_shadow"
     }
   ]
diff --git a/docs/EMOS_TRAINING_REPORT_ZH.md b/docs/EMOS_TRAINING_REPORT_ZH.md
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0a4a459c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/EMOS_TRAINING_REPORT_ZH.md
@@ -0,0 +1,311 @@
+# EMOS 训练报告（2026-03-20）
+
+## 1. 报告目的
+
+本文档用于记录当前 PolyWeather 概率校准引擎（EMOS）的训练结果、离线评估结果、线上 shadow 观测结果，以及是否具备切换为主路径的条件。
+
+当前结论先写在前面：
+
+- `EMOS` 已完成接入、训练、离线评估、shadow 落盘与滚动报表。
+- 当前默认运行模式应继续保持 `emos_shadow`。
+- 现阶段 **不建议切换到 `emos_primary`**。
+
+## 2. 本次训练版本
+
+- 校准版本：`emos-20260320130245`
+- 训练时间：`2026-03-20T13:02:45.903772+00:00`
+- 参数文件：[default.json](/E:/web/PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json)
+- 离线评估报告：[evaluation_report.json](/E:/web/PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json)
+- 线上 shadow 报表：[shadow_report.json](/E:/web/PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/shadow_report.json)
+
+## 3. 训练数据概况
+
+### 3.1 数据来源
+
+当前训练主要使用两类数据：
+
+1. 项目历史日记录  
+   文件：[daily_records.json](/E:/web/PolyWeather/data/daily_records.json)
+
+2. 历史天气 CSV 构建出的结算标签  
+   文件：[settlement_history.json](/E:/web/PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/settlement_history.json)
+
+### 3.2 样本规模
+
+- 总训练样本数：`105`
+- 通过历史天气 CSV 补回的缺失 `actual_high`：`2`
+- 历史结算标签覆盖城市数：`30`
+
+说明：
+
+- 当前样本已覆盖 30 个城市，但有效监督样本量仍偏小。
+- 部分城市样本数只有 `2-7` 条，城市级参数容易波动。
+
+## 4. 模型结构
+
+### 4.1 当前实现
+
+EMOS 属于统计后处理层，不是数值天气模型本身。当前结构位于：
+
+- [probability_calibration.py](/E:/web/PolyWeather/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py)
+
+当前目标是对原有概率引擎输出进行校准：
+
+- 输入：`raw_mu`、`raw_sigma`、`DEB`、`ensemble median/spread`、`peak_status` 等特征
+- 输出：校准后的 `mu / sigma / distribution`
+
+### 4.2 当前运行模式
+
+支持三种模式：
+
+- `legacy`
+- `emos_shadow`
+- `emos_primary`
+
+当前建议默认模式：
+
+- `emos_shadow`
+
+即：
+
+- 对外仍展示 legacy 结果
+- 后台并行计算 EMOS 结果
+- 用于持续评估，不直接影响用户
+
+## 5. 本次训练参数摘要
+
+### 5.1 全局约束
+
+本次训练已加入两类约束：
+
+1. `sigma_constraints`
+- `min_ratio = 0.85`
+- `max_ratio = 1.35`
+- `absolute_min = 0.25`
+- `absolute_max = 3.0`
+
+2. `selection_guardrails`
+- `max_mae_increase = 0.02`
+- `max_bucket_hit_drop = 0.01`
+- `max_bucket_brier_increase = 0.05`
+
+这两类约束的目的不是追求“更激进的拟合”，而是防止 EMOS 为了降低 CRPS 而把分布摊得过平，导致业务上更关键的顶桶命中和概率质量变差。
+
+### 5.2 当前选中的 blending
+
+本次训练产物中最终选择：
+
+- `alpha_mu = 0.0`
+- `alpha_sigma = 0.0`
+
+含义是：
+
+- 训练器在护栏约束下，没有找到足够安全的候选方案可以替代 legacy 主路径
+- 因此当前正式选中的可用结果，本质上仍然锚定在 legacy
+
+这是一种正确的保护行为，不是失败。说明门禁已经起作用，避免了坏校准进入主路径。
+
+## 6. 离线评估结果
+
+评估报告来源：
+
+- [evaluation_report.json](/E:/web/PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json)
+
+### 6.1 总体结果
+
+Legacy：
+
+- `mean_crps = 2.793938`
+- `mean_mae = 2.721143`
+- `bucket_hit_rate = 0.695238`
+
+EMOS（强制 primary 评估）：
+
+- `mean_crps = 2.650216`
+- `mean_mae = 2.722829`
+- `bucket_hit_rate = 0.666667`
+
+Delta：
+
+- `CRPS = -0.143722`
+- `MAE = +0.001686`
+- `bucket_hit_rate = -0.028571`
+
+### 6.2 解读
+
+这组结果说明：
+
+1. `CRPS` 有改善  
+   说明从“分布整体平滑度”角度看，EMOS 有一定价值。
+
+2. `MAE` 基本持平但略差  
+   不是大问题，但也不能算改善。
+
+3. `bucket_hit_rate` 明显下降  
+   这是当前最大阻塞项。对 PolyWeather 这种结算桶业务来说，顶桶命中率比单纯 CRPS 更关键。
+
+因此，离线结论是：
+
+- `EMOS` 有研究价值
+- 但 **离线强切 primary 仍然不合格**
+
+## 7. 线上 Shadow 观测结果
+
+线上 shadow 报表来源：
+
+- [shadow_report.json](/E:/web/PolyWeather/artifacts/probability_calibration/shadow_report.json)
+
+### 7.1 总体结果
+
+- `samples = 103`
+- `legacy_mean_mae = 1.839223`
+- `shadow_mean_mae = 1.851931`
+- `delta_mae = +0.012708`
+
+- `legacy_bucket_hit_rate = 0.669903`
+- `shadow_bucket_hit_rate = 0.679612`
+- `delta_bucket_hit_rate = +0.009709`
+
+- `legacy_bucket_brier = 0.462814`
+- `shadow_bucket_brier = 0.756649`
+- `delta_bucket_brier = +0.293835`
+
+### 7.2 解读
+
+线上 shadow 结果和离线强制 primary 结果不完全相同，这是正常的。原因是：
+
+- `shadow_report` 反映的是历史记录中实际落盘的 shadow 输出
+- `evaluation_report` 反映的是离线脚本在强制 `emos_primary` 下重新计算的效果
+
+当前线上 shadow 的含义是：
+
+1. 顶桶命中率略有提升  
+   `+0.97%`
+
+2. 但 `MAE` 轻微变差  
+   虽然幅度不大，但没有形成明确优势
+
+3. `bucket_brier` 明显更差  
+   说明 shadow 分布仍然偏“摊平”，概率质量不足
+
+这是当前最重要的信号：
+
+- EMOS 在“顶桶命中”上偶尔能赢
+- 但在“概率质量”上还不够好
+
+## 8. 城市级观察
+
+从当前城市级结果看，EMOS 并不是“全城市统一改善”，而是明显分化：
+
+### 8.1 相对改善较明显的城市
+
+- `London`
+- `Hong Kong`
+- `Tokyo`
+- `New York`
+
+这些城市在部分指标上看到一定改善，说明当前校准特征在这些城市上更有效。
+
+### 8.2 风险较高的城市
+
+- `Atlanta`
+- `Miami`
+- `Chicago`
+- `Dallas`
+- `Seattle`
+
+这些城市常见现象是：
+
+- 顶桶命中没有显著提高
+- 或 `bucket_brier` 明显恶化
+- 或者 `MAE` 出现不必要抬升
+
+这说明当前 EMOS 还没有形成稳定的全局校准能力，城市间异质性很强。
+
+## 9. 当前判断
+
+### 9.1 能不能上线为主路径
+
+当前答案：
+
+- **不能**
+
+原因：
+
+1. 离线强制 primary 时，`bucket_hit_rate` 下降
+2. 线上 shadow 时，`bucket_brier` 明显变差
+3. 样本量依然偏小，城市样本不均衡
+4. 城市级表现分化明显
+
+### 9.2 当前应该怎么运行
+
+当前最合理的运行方式：
+
+1. 保持 `emos_shadow`
+2. 继续落盘 `shadow_prob_snapshot`
+3. 继续维护滚动报表
+4. 不修改机器人和网页的正式对外概率展示
+
+## 10. 已完成的工程能力
+
+目前已经具备以下能力：
+
+1. 可离线训练  
+   脚本：[fit_probability_calibration.py](/E:/web/PolyWeather/scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py)
+
+2. 可离线评估  
+   脚本：[evaluate_probability_calibration.py](/E:/web/PolyWeather/scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py)
+
+3. 可导出训练样本  
+   脚本：[export_probability_training_dataset.py](/E:/web/PolyWeather/scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py)
+
+4. 可历史回填 shadow 结果  
+   脚本：[backfill_probability_shadow_history.py](/E:/web/PolyWeather/scripts/backfill_probability_shadow_history.py)
+
+5. 可生成滚动 shadow 报表  
+   脚本：[build_probability_shadow_report.py](/E:/web/PolyWeather/scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py)
+
+6. CI 已接入  
+   包含 `ruff / pytest / frontend build / docker build workflow`
+
+## 11. 下一步建议
+
+### 11.1 必做
+
+1. 扩大监督样本量  
+   重点不是继续堆原始天气 CSV，而是补更多带 forecast snapshot 的历史样本。
+
+2. 继续按版本沉淀训练报告  
+   每次重训后都更新本报告或新增版本报告，避免只看单次结果。
+
+3. 保持 `shadow` 连续观测  
+   至少持续一段时间观察滚动指标是否稳定。
+
+### 11.2 再做
+
+1. 细分城市组建模  
+   比如按气候区、结算规则、温度单位分组，而不是完全全局一套参数。
+
+2. 优化训练目标  
+   目前已经把 `bucket_brier` 纳入目标，但仍需进一步靠近 PolyWeather 的业务目标。
+
+3. 补更严格的切换门槛  
+   只有在同时满足以下条件时，才考虑切 `emos_primary`：
+- `CRPS` 下降
+- `MAE` 不上升
+- `bucket_hit_rate` 不下降
+- `bucket_brier` 不上升
+
+## 12. 结论
+
+当前 EMOS 状态可以概括为：
+
+- 工程上：已经完整接入，具备训练、评估、shadow 观测能力
+- 模型上：有一定价值，但还不稳定
+- 产品上：适合继续做 shadow，不适合切主路径
+
+最终结论：
+
+- **继续使用 `emos_shadow`**
+- **暂不切 `emos_primary`**
+- **继续积累样本并按版本跟踪训练结果**
diff --git a/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py b/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py
index c2b7c614..a2f19014 100644
--- a/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py
+++ b/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py
@@ -226,14 +226,61 @@ def _top_bucket_value(distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]]) -> Optional[
     return int(value) if value is not None else None
 
 
-def _composite_score(mean_crps: float, mean_mae: float, bucket_hit_rate: float) -> float:
-    return mean_crps + 0.1 * mean_mae + 2.0 * (1.0 - bucket_hit_rate)
+def _bucket_brier_score(
+    distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]],
+    city_name: str,
+    actual_high: float,
+) -> float:
+    actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city_name, actual_high)
+    hit_prob = 0.0
+    total = 0.0
+    for row in distribution or []:
+        if not isinstance(row, dict):
+            continue
+        value = row.get("value")
+        try:
+            prob = float(row.get("probability") or 0.0)
+        except Exception:
+            prob = 0.0
+        if value == actual_bucket:
+            hit_prob = prob
+        else:
+            total += prob * prob
+    total += (1.0 - hit_prob) ** 2
+    return total
+
+
+def _composite_score(
+    mean_crps: float,
+    mean_mae: float,
+    bucket_hit_rate: float,
+    bucket_brier: float,
+) -> float:
+    return mean_crps + 0.1 * mean_mae + 1.5 * (1.0 - bucket_hit_rate) + 0.75 * bucket_brier
 
 
 def _blend_value(raw_value: float, calibrated_value: float, alpha: float) -> float:
     return (1.0 - alpha) * raw_value + alpha * calibrated_value
 
 
+def _clamp_sigma(
+    raw_sigma: float,
+    calibrated_sigma: float,
+    constraints: Optional[Dict[str, Any]],
+) -> float:
+    constraints = constraints or {}
+    min_ratio = max(0.25, _coalesce_float(constraints.get("min_ratio"), 0.85))
+    max_ratio = max(min_ratio, _coalesce_float(constraints.get("max_ratio"), 1.35))
+    absolute_min = max(0.1, _coalesce_float(constraints.get("absolute_min"), 0.25))
+    absolute_max = max(
+        absolute_min,
+        _coalesce_float(constraints.get("absolute_max"), raw_sigma * max_ratio),
+    )
+    sigma_floor = max(absolute_min, raw_sigma * min_ratio)
+    sigma_cap = min(absolute_max, raw_sigma * max_ratio)
+    return min(max(calibrated_sigma, sigma_floor), sigma_cap)
+
+
 def apply_probability_calibration(
     city_name: str,
     temp_symbol: str,
@@ -280,6 +327,7 @@ def apply_probability_calibration(
     global_params = calibration.get("global", {}) or {}
     city_params = (calibration.get("cities", {}) or {}).get(city_key, {}) or {}
     blending_cfg = calibration.get("blending", {}) or {}
+    sigma_constraints = calibration.get("sigma_constraints", {}) or {}
 
     mu_cfg = global_params.get("mu", {}) or {}
     sigma_cfg = global_params.get("sigma", {}) or {}
@@ -330,6 +378,7 @@ def apply_probability_calibration(
     blend_alpha_sigma = max(0.0, min(1.0, _coalesce_float(blending_cfg.get("alpha_sigma"), 1.0)))
     calibrated_mu = _blend_value(raw_mu, calibrated_mu, blend_alpha_mu)
     calibrated_sigma = max(0.1, _blend_value(raw_sigma, calibrated_sigma, blend_alpha_sigma))
+    calibrated_sigma = _clamp_sigma(raw_sigma, calibrated_sigma, sigma_constraints)
     calibrated_distribution, calibrated_sorted = _bucket_probabilities(
         calibrated_mu,
         calibrated_sigma,
@@ -472,6 +521,7 @@ def fit_calibration(
     legacy_crps_values = []
     legacy_mae_values = []
     legacy_bucket_hits = []
+    legacy_bucket_briers = []
     candidate_predictions = []
     for idx, sample in enumerate(normalized_samples):
         city = sample["city"]
@@ -496,6 +546,15 @@ def fit_calibration(
             == apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high)
             else 0.0
         )
+        legacy_distribution, _ = _bucket_probabilities(
+            legacy_mu,
+            legacy_sigma,
+            max_so_far=None,
+            city_name=city,
+        )
+        legacy_bucket_briers.append(
+            _bucket_brier_score(legacy_distribution, city, actual_high)
+        )
 
         calibrated_mu = mu_predictions[idx] + city_mu_bias
         sigma_log = float(np.dot(sigma_coeffs, np.array(sigma_rows[idx], dtype=float)))
@@ -514,11 +573,24 @@ def fit_calibration(
     legacy_mean_crps = _mean(legacy_crps_values) or 0.0
     legacy_mean_mae = _mean(legacy_mae_values) or 0.0
     legacy_bucket_hit_rate = _mean(legacy_bucket_hits) or 0.0
+    legacy_bucket_brier = _mean(legacy_bucket_briers) or 0.0
+    sigma_constraints = {
+        "min_ratio": 0.85,
+        "max_ratio": 1.35,
+        "absolute_min": 0.25,
+        "absolute_max": 3.0,
+    }
     legacy_score = _composite_score(
         legacy_mean_crps,
         legacy_mean_mae,
         legacy_bucket_hit_rate,
+        legacy_bucket_brier,
     )
+    guardrails = {
+        "max_mae_increase": 0.02,
+        "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01,
+        "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05,
+    }
 
     best_alpha_mu = 0.0
     best_alpha_sigma = 0.0
@@ -527,6 +599,7 @@ def fit_calibration(
         "mean_crps": legacy_mean_crps,
         "mean_mae": legacy_mean_mae,
         "bucket_hit_rate": legacy_bucket_hit_rate,
+        "bucket_brier": legacy_bucket_brier,
     }
     alpha_grid = [step / 20.0 for step in range(21)]
     for alpha_mu in alpha_grid:
@@ -534,11 +607,16 @@ def fit_calibration(
             crps_values = []
             mae_values = []
             bucket_hits = []
+            bucket_briers = []
             for row in candidate_predictions:
                 mu_hat = _blend_value(row["raw_mu"], row["calibrated_mu"], alpha_mu)
-                sigma_hat = max(
-                    0.1,
-                    _blend_value(row["raw_sigma"], row["calibrated_sigma"], alpha_sigma),
+                sigma_hat = _clamp_sigma(
+                    row["raw_sigma"],
+                    max(
+                        0.1,
+                        _blend_value(row["raw_sigma"], row["calibrated_sigma"], alpha_sigma),
+                    ),
+                    sigma_constraints,
                 )
                 actual_high = row["actual_high"]
                 city = row["city"]
@@ -553,11 +631,21 @@ def fit_calibration(
                 predicted_bucket = _top_bucket_value(distribution)
                 actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high)
                 bucket_hits.append(1.0 if predicted_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0)
+                bucket_briers.append(
+                    _bucket_brier_score(distribution, city, actual_high)
+                )
 
             mean_crps = _mean(crps_values) or 0.0
             mean_mae = _mean(mae_values) or 0.0
             bucket_hit_rate = _mean(bucket_hits) or 0.0
-            score = _composite_score(mean_crps, mean_mae, bucket_hit_rate)
+            bucket_brier = _mean(bucket_briers) or 0.0
+            if mean_mae > legacy_mean_mae + guardrails["max_mae_increase"]:
+                continue
+            if bucket_hit_rate + guardrails["max_bucket_hit_drop"] < legacy_bucket_hit_rate:
+                continue
+            if bucket_brier > legacy_bucket_brier + guardrails["max_bucket_brier_increase"]:
+                continue
+            score = _composite_score(mean_crps, mean_mae, bucket_hit_rate, bucket_brier)
             if score + 1e-9 < best_score:
                 best_score = score
                 best_alpha_mu = alpha_mu
@@ -566,6 +654,7 @@ def fit_calibration(
                     "mean_crps": mean_crps,
                     "mean_mae": mean_mae,
                     "bucket_hit_rate": bucket_hit_rate,
+                    "bucket_brier": bucket_brier,
                 }
 
     return {
@@ -587,6 +676,8 @@ def fit_calibration(
                 "max_so_far_gap_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[4]), 8),
             },
         },
+        "sigma_constraints": sigma_constraints,
+        "selection_guardrails": guardrails,
         "blending": {
             "alpha_mu": round(best_alpha_mu, 6),
             "alpha_sigma": round(best_alpha_sigma, 6),
@@ -598,9 +689,11 @@ def fit_calibration(
             "legacy_mean_crps": round(legacy_mean_crps, 6),
             "legacy_mean_mae": round(legacy_mean_mae, 6),
             "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": round(legacy_bucket_hit_rate, 6),
+            "legacy_bucket_brier": round(legacy_bucket_brier, 6),
             "selected_mean_crps": round(best_metrics["mean_crps"], 6),
             "selected_mean_mae": round(best_metrics["mean_mae"], 6),
             "selected_bucket_hit_rate": round(best_metrics["bucket_hit_rate"], 6),
+            "selected_bucket_brier": round(best_metrics["bucket_brier"], 6),
             "selected_score": round(best_score, 6),
             "legacy_score": round(legacy_score, 6),
         },
@@ -630,6 +723,17 @@ def default_calibration_payload(
                 "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0,
             },
         },
+        "sigma_constraints": {
+            "min_ratio": 0.85,
+            "max_ratio": 1.35,
+            "absolute_min": 0.25,
+            "absolute_max": 3.0,
+        },
+        "selection_guardrails": {
+            "max_mae_increase": 0.02,
+            "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01,
+            "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05,
+        },
         "blending": {
             "alpha_mu": 1.0,
             "alpha_sigma": 1.0,
diff --git a/tests/test_probability_calibration.py b/tests/test_probability_calibration.py
index 5ce64ccd..6f5bb3df 100644
--- a/tests/test_probability_calibration.py
+++ b/tests/test_probability_calibration.py
@@ -31,10 +31,17 @@ def _write_calibration(tmp_path: Path):
                 "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0,
             },
         },
+        "sigma_constraints": {
+            "min_ratio": 0.85,
+            "max_ratio": 1.2,
+            "absolute_min": 0.25,
+            "absolute_max": 2.0,
+        },
         "cities": {
             "ankara": {
                 "mu_bias": 0.5,
-                "sigma_scale": 1.0,
+                "sigma_scale": 2.0,
+                "confidence": 1.0,
             }
         },
         "metrics": {"sample_count": 10, "mean_crps": 0.4},
@@ -76,6 +83,7 @@ def test_shadow_mode_keeps_legacy_distribution(tmp_path):
     assert result["distribution"] == legacy_distribution
     assert result["shadow_distribution"]
     assert result["calibrated_mu"] == 10.5
+    assert result["calibrated_sigma"] == 1.2
 
 
 def test_primary_mode_switches_to_calibrated_distribution(tmp_path):
@@ -107,6 +115,7 @@ def test_primary_mode_switches_to_calibrated_distribution(tmp_path):
     assert result["mode"] == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY
     assert result["engine"] == "emos"
     assert result["calibrated_mu"] == 10.5
+    assert result["calibrated_sigma"] == 1.2
     assert result["distribution"]
     assert result["distribution"][0]["value"] >= 10