chore(master): release 1.3.5 (#38)

Co-authored-by: github-actions[bot] <41898282+github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

.release-please-manifest.json

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 {
-  ".": "1.3.2"
+  ".": "1.3.5"
 }

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,5 +1,55 @@
 # Changelog
 
+## [1.3.5](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/compare/v1.3.4...v1.3.5) (2026-04-27)
+
+
+### Bug Fixes
+
+* **auto-fixer:** add five new factor code fixes for groupby/apply errors ([449c8fd](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/449c8fd70a327e604dcca122e4a134f0cca918e4))
+* **auto-fixer:** add four new factor code fixes for common runtime errors ([40484f6](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/40484f6d300425da481f1edd325da4acbc06ec7d))
+* **auto-fixer:** add groupby([level=N,'date']) SyntaxError fix ([ca77c00](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/ca77c005bea4abdd8854c1de2b0e8d03b7742161))
+* **auto-fixer:** disable _fix_min_periods for intraday data ([77b0740](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/77b0740f059349df7e769a378af728aa33b2070e))
+* **auto-fixer:** fix chained groupby(level=N).groupby('date') pattern ([7d5fe32](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/7d5fe32b31a19ce8b04bd8f5a430720fdb748f7a))
+* **auto-fixer:** fix df.loc[instrument] DateParseError on MultiIndex frames ([b7860ea](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/b7860eafc0ad26384947ce0510ecf4e9f3425807))
+* **auto-fixer:** fix df['instrument'] KeyError on MultiIndex frames ([aad6bd1](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/aad6bd1c7c720b3d486e0cf248337f32394773b1))
+* **auto-fixer:** fix two assignment-target bugs in instrument column fixers ([421eedf](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/421eedffed4b883c24397dc5581c019a3985277f))
+* **auto-fixer:** preserve date dimension in groupby(['instrument','date']) fix ([b58fdd8](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/b58fdd8be43720b5d4363e0f8de9a01591d4d2dc))
+* **auto-fixer:** remove ddof from rolling() args, not only from std()/var() ([b0fc328](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/b0fc328d0d4a041c65d8eeb32cb3f2bb86568406))
+* **auto-fixer:** strip spurious .reset_index() after .transform() calls ([8708aae](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/8708aae6e08728cda1875c775a76dc92e43576f3))
+* **loop:** prevent step_idx advance on unhandled exceptions + fix consecutive assistant messages ([5ec4ad1](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/5ec4ad1b96b5b99ef42bea7bb828cb1ef709a688))
+
+## [1.3.4](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/compare/v1.3.3...v1.3.4) (2026-04-27)
+
+
+### Bug Fixes
+
+* **auto-fixer:** add five new factor code fixes for groupby/apply errors ([449c8fd](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/449c8fd70a327e604dcca122e4a134f0cca918e4))
+* **auto-fixer:** add four new factor code fixes for common runtime errors ([40484f6](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/40484f6d300425da481f1edd325da4acbc06ec7d))
+* **auto-fixer:** add groupby([level=N,'date']) SyntaxError fix ([ca77c00](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/ca77c005bea4abdd8854c1de2b0e8d03b7742161))
+* **auto-fixer:** disable _fix_min_periods for intraday data ([77b0740](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/77b0740f059349df7e769a378af728aa33b2070e))
+* **auto-fixer:** fix chained groupby(level=N).groupby('date') pattern ([7d5fe32](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/7d5fe32b31a19ce8b04bd8f5a430720fdb748f7a))
+* **auto-fixer:** fix df.loc[instrument] DateParseError on MultiIndex frames ([b7860ea](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/b7860eafc0ad26384947ce0510ecf4e9f3425807))
+* **auto-fixer:** fix df['instrument'] KeyError on MultiIndex frames ([aad6bd1](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/aad6bd1c7c720b3d486e0cf248337f32394773b1))
+* **auto-fixer:** preserve date dimension in groupby(['instrument','date']) fix ([b58fdd8](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/b58fdd8be43720b5d4363e0f8de9a01591d4d2dc))
+* **auto-fixer:** remove ddof from rolling() args, not only from std()/var() ([b0fc328](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/b0fc328d0d4a041c65d8eeb32cb3f2bb86568406))
+* **backtest:** replace broken MC permutation test with binomial win-rate test ([c38d894](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/c38d89478f586825bfca5715a96ca70ccd8791a3))
+* **factors:** detect and correct look-ahead bias in daily-constant factors ([eb490a4](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/eb490a461b66cbd815ae53ac5205115754712432))
+* **factors:** extend look-ahead rules to session factors and add intraday-factor guidance ([c24c100](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/c24c100442d6487686c0578de0b32d240fcbf215))
+* **loop:** compress old experiment history in proposal prompt to reduce context size ([4bf90a9](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/4bf90a905ba8b2aba2a818191c19998088cccaaf))
+* **loop:** prevent step_idx advance on unhandled exceptions + fix consecutive assistant messages ([5ec4ad1](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/5ec4ad1b96b5b99ef42bea7bb828cb1ef709a688))
+
+## [1.3.3](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/compare/v1.3.2...v1.3.3) (2026-04-25)
+
+
+### Bug Fixes
+
+* **backtest:** replace broken MC permutation test with binomial win-rate test ([c38d894](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/c38d89478f586825bfca5715a96ca70ccd8791a3))
+* **factors:** detect and correct look-ahead bias in daily-constant factors ([eb490a4](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/eb490a461b66cbd815ae53ac5205115754712432))
+* **factors:** extend look-ahead rules to session factors and add intraday-factor guidance ([c24c100](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/c24c100442d6487686c0578de0b32d240fcbf215))
+* **loop:** compress old experiment history in proposal prompt to reduce context size ([4bf90a9](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/4bf90a905ba8b2aba2a818191c19998088cccaaf))
+* **strategies:** guard against None IC in acceptance check, disable slow wf_rolling ([2197f52](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/2197f52150a50ef38d9e70991d7e48c8c30caec4))
+* **strategies:** handle None ic/sharpe/dd in rejected strategy log output ([ad2ad3a](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/commit/ad2ad3ab3360ea75ed3bbc90c12098b9c5cc0114))
+
 ## [1.3.2](https://github.com/TPTBusiness/Predix/compare/v1.3.1...v1.3.2) (2026-04-23)
 
 

rdagent/components/backtesting/vbt_backtest.py

@@ -356,11 +356,12 @@ def monte_carlo_trade_pvalue(
     """
     Monte Carlo permutation test on trade-level P&L.
 
-    Shuffles the order of trade returns ``n_permutations`` times and computes
-    the fraction of runs whose total return is >= the real total return.
+    Runs a one-sided binomial test on trade-level win rate.
 
-    p < 0.05 → strategy has a statistically significant edge (real return
-    beats 95% of random sequences with the same set of trades).
+    Tests H0: win_rate = 0.5 (random trading) against H1: win_rate > 0.5.
+    The ``n_permutations`` parameter is kept for API compatibility but is unused.
+
+    p < 0.05 → win rate is significantly above 50%, indicating a genuine per-trade edge.
 
     Parameters
     ----------
@@ -379,14 +380,14 @@ def monte_carlo_trade_pvalue(
     if len(trade_pnl) < 2:
         return 1.0
     trades = trade_pnl.values.copy()
-    real_total = float(trades.sum())
-    rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
-    beat = 0
-    for _ in range(n_permutations):
-        perm = rng.permutation(trades)
-        if perm.sum() >= real_total:
-            beat += 1
-    return beat / n_permutations
+    # Binomial test: is the win rate significantly above 50%?
+    # p = probability of observing >= n_wins out of n_trades under null (win_rate=0.5).
+    # Low p → strategy has a significant positive edge per trade.
+    from scipy.stats import binomtest
+    n_wins = int((trades > 0).sum())
+    n_total = len(trades)
+    result = binomtest(n_wins, n_total, p=0.5, alternative="greater")
+    return float(result.pvalue)
 
 
 def walk_forward_rolling(

rdagent/components/coder/factor_coder/auto_fixer.py

@@ -51,13 +51,23 @@ class FactorAutoFixer:
         self.fixes_applied = []
         fixed_code = code
 
-        # Apply fixes in order - groupby fixes MUST come before min_periods fixes
+        # Apply fixes in order
+        # NOTE: _fix_min_periods is intentionally excluded — it increased min_periods to
+        # match window size, which causes all-NaN output for intraday data with 96 bars/day
+        # (window=240 > 96 means zero valid bars per day). The LLM sets its own min_periods.
         fix_methods = [
-            self._fix_groupby_apply_to_transform,  # First: fix groupby patterns
-            self._fix_min_periods,                  # Second: fix min_periods in resulting rolling calls
-            self._fix_inf_nan_handling,             # Third: add inf/nan handling
-            self._fix_data_range_processing,        # Fourth: ensure full data range
-            self._fix_multiindex_groupby,           # Fifth: ensure groupby on MultiIndex
+            self._fix_instrument_column_access,     # First: fix df['instrument'] on MultiIndex
+            self._fix_instrument_loc_multiindex,    # Second: fix df.loc[instrument_var] on MultiIndex
+            self._fix_zero_volume_proxy,            # Third: replace zero $volume with range proxy
+            self._fix_reset_index_groupby,          # Fourth: fix groupby(level=N) after reset_index()
+            self._fix_groupby_mixed_levels,         # Fifth: fix groupby(level=[int, str])
+            self._fix_groupby_column_on_multiindex, # Sixth: fix groupby(['instrument','date']) on MultiIndex
+            self._fix_chained_groupby,              # Seventh: fix groupby(level=N).groupby('date') chain
+            self._fix_rolling_ddof,                 # Eighth: remove unsupported ddof kwarg
+            self._fix_groupby_apply_to_transform,   # Ninth: fix groupby patterns
+            self._fix_inf_nan_handling,             # Tenth: add inf/nan handling
+            self._fix_data_range_processing,        # Eleventh: ensure full data range
+            self._fix_multiindex_groupby,           # Twelfth: ensure groupby on MultiIndex
         ]
 
         for fix_method in fix_methods:
@@ -75,6 +85,352 @@ class FactorAutoFixer:
 
         return fixed_code
 
+    def _fix_instrument_column_access(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix: df['instrument'] raises KeyError on a MultiIndex DataFrame because
+        'instrument' is an index level (level 1), not a column.
+
+        Replace df['instrument'] with df.index.get_level_values('instrument')
+        but only when the DataFrame has a MultiIndex (not after reset_index which
+        would have promoted it to a real column).
+
+        Also fixes df.reset_index()['instrument'] correctly since after reset_index
+        the column exists.
+        """
+        fixed_code = code
+
+        # Skip if already fixed or if reset_index() is being used before the access
+        # We only fix bare df['instrument'] where df is the original MultiIndex frame.
+        # Heuristic: if the assignment lhs or context shows reset_index, leave it alone.
+
+        # Pattern: <varname>['instrument'] where varname is NOT a reset_index result
+        reset_vars = set(re.findall(r'(\w+)\s*=\s*\w[^=\n]*\.reset_index\(', fixed_code))
+
+        def _replace_instrument_access(m: re.Match) -> str:
+            var = m.group(1)
+            if var in reset_vars:
+                return m.group(0)  # leave reset_index vars alone — column exists
+            self.fixes_applied.append(f"instrument_column: {var}['instrument'] → get_level_values(1)")
+            return f"{var}.index.get_level_values(1)"
+
+        # Exclude assignment targets: var['instrument'] = ... must not become
+        # var.index.get_level_values(1) = ... (SyntaxError: cannot assign to function call)
+        fixed_code = re.sub(r"(\w+)\['instrument'\](?!\s*=)", _replace_instrument_access, fixed_code)
+
+        return fixed_code
+
+    def _fix_instrument_loc_multiindex(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix: df.loc[instrument_var] raises DateParseError on a (datetime, instrument)
+        MultiIndex because pandas tries to match the instrument string against the
+        datetime level (level 0).
+
+        Pattern detected: for-loops iterating over get_level_values('instrument') or
+        get_level_values(1) where the loop variable is then used as df.loc[loop_var].
+
+        Replacement: df.loc[instrument_var] → df.xs(instrument_var, level=1)
+        """
+        fixed_code = code
+
+        # Find variables iterated from get_level_values('instrument') or get_level_values(1)
+        inst_vars = set(
+            re.findall(
+                r"for\s+(\w+)\s+in\s+.+?\.get_level_values\s*\(\s*(?:1|['\"]instrument['\"])\s*\)[^:\n]*:",
+                code,
+            )
+        )
+
+        if not inst_vars:
+            return fixed_code
+
+        for var in inst_vars:
+            # Replace DF.loc[var] (read) with DF.xs(var, level=1)
+            # Exclude write-back patterns (DF.loc[var] = ...) — leave those as-is
+            def _make_replacer(v: str):
+                def _replace(m: re.Match) -> str:
+                    df_var = m.group(1)
+                    self.fixes_applied.append(
+                        f"instrument_loc: {df_var}.loc[{v}] → {df_var}.xs({v}, level=1)"
+                    )
+                    return f"{df_var}.xs({v}, level=1)"
+
+                return _replace
+
+            # Only match when NOT followed by ' =' (assignment)
+            fixed_code = re.sub(
+                rf"(\w+)\.loc\[\s*{re.escape(var)}\s*\](?!\s*=)",
+                _make_replacer(var),
+                fixed_code,
+            )
+
+        return fixed_code
+
+    def _fix_zero_volume_proxy(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix: $volume is always 0 in our EUR/USD dataset (FX has no real volume).
+        Any factor using $volume (VWAP, volume-weighted returns, etc.) produces
+        all-NaN output because 0*price=0 and sum(0)/sum(0)=NaN.
+
+        Insert a guard right after pd.read_hdf() that replaces zero volume with
+        the intraday price-range proxy ($high - $low) so volume-weighted factors
+        produce meaningful signals.
+        """
+        if "'$volume'" not in code and '"$volume"' not in code:
+            return code
+
+        # Already patched
+        if "volume proxy" in code:
+            return code
+
+        lines = code.splitlines()
+        insert_after = -1
+        df_var = "df"
+        indent = "    "
+
+        for i, line in enumerate(lines):
+            if "read_hdf(" in line:
+                m = re.match(r"(\s*)(\w+)\s*=\s*", line)
+                if m:
+                    indent = m.group(1)
+                    df_var = m.group(2)
+                else:
+                    m2 = re.match(r"(\s*)", line)
+                    indent = m2.group(1) if m2 else "    "
+                insert_after = i
+                break
+
+        if insert_after == -1:
+            return code
+
+        proxy_lines = [
+            f"{indent}# volume proxy: $volume is always 0 in FX data — use price-range as proxy",
+            f"{indent}if ({df_var}['$volume'] == 0).all():",
+            f"{indent}    {df_var}['$volume'] = {df_var}['$high'] - {df_var}['$low']",
+        ]
+        lines = lines[: insert_after + 1] + proxy_lines + lines[insert_after + 1 :]
+        self.fixes_applied.append("volume_proxy: replaced zero $volume with ($high - $low)")
+        return "\n".join(lines)
+
+    def _fix_reset_index_groupby(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix: groupby(level=N) on a variable created by .reset_index() fails because
+        reset_index() converts the MultiIndex into regular columns, leaving a plain
+        RangeIndex.  Replace groupby(level=N) on such variables with
+        groupby('instrument').
+
+        Detected pattern:
+            varname = <anything>.reset_index(...)
+            ...
+            varname.groupby(level=0|1)
+        """
+        fixed_code = code
+
+        # Find all variables assigned via reset_index()
+        reset_vars = set(re.findall(r'(\w+)\s*=\s*\w[^=\n]*\.reset_index\(', fixed_code))
+
+        for var in reset_vars:
+            # Replace var.groupby(level=N) with var.groupby('instrument')
+            pattern = rf'{re.escape(var)}\.groupby\(level\s*=\s*\d+\)'
+            if re.search(pattern, fixed_code):
+                fixed_code = re.sub(pattern, f"{var}.groupby('instrument')", fixed_code)
+                self.fixes_applied.append(f"reset_index_groupby: {var}.groupby(level=N) → groupby('instrument')")
+
+        return fixed_code
+
+    def _fix_groupby_mixed_levels(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix: groupby(level=[int, 'str']) raises AssertionError because string level
+        names don't exist on an unnamed MultiIndex.  Keep only integer levels.
+
+        Pattern:  .groupby(level=[0, 'date'])  →  .groupby(level=0)
+                  .groupby(level=[1, 'date'])  →  .groupby(level=1)
+        """
+        fixed_code = code
+
+        def _keep_int_levels(m):
+            inner = m.group(1)
+            ints = re.findall(r'\b(\d+)\b', inner)
+            if not ints:
+                return m.group(0)
+            replacement = f'.groupby(level={ints[0]})' if len(ints) == 1 else f'.groupby(level=[{", ".join(ints)}])'
+            self.fixes_applied.append(f"mixed_levels: groupby(level=[...,str]) → {replacement}")
+            return replacement
+
+        fixed_code = re.sub(r'\.groupby\(level=\[([^\]]+)\]\)', _keep_int_levels, fixed_code)
+        return fixed_code
+
+    def _fix_groupby_column_on_multiindex(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix: groupby(['instrument', 'date']) on a MultiIndex (datetime, instrument)
+        DataFrame fails with KeyError because those are index levels, not columns.
+
+        Correct replacement preserves BOTH dimensions so intraday calculations reset
+        per day:
+            var.groupby(['instrument', 'date'])
+            → var.groupby([var.index.get_level_values(1), var.index.get_level_values(0).normalize()])
+
+        Single-column groupby(['instrument']) is correctly replaced with groupby(level=1).
+        Note: do NOT convert groupby('instrument') → groupby(level=1) here — that would
+        undo the reset_index_groupby fix which correctly emits groupby('instrument').
+        """
+        fixed_code = code
+
+        # Variables created via reset_index() have a plain RangeIndex — applying
+        # get_level_values() on them would raise AttributeError. Skip those.
+        reset_vars = set(re.findall(r'(\w+)\s*=\s*\w[^=\n]*\.reset_index\(', fixed_code))
+
+        def _replace_two_col_groupby(m: re.Match, order: str) -> str:
+            var = m.group(1)
+            if var in reset_vars:
+                return m.group(0)  # leave reset_index vars alone — RangeIndex, not MultiIndex
+            if order == "instrument_date":
+                repl = (
+                    f"{var}.groupby([{var}.index.get_level_values(1), "
+                    f"{var}.index.get_level_values(0).normalize()])"
+                )
+            else:  # date_instrument
+                repl = (
+                    f"{var}.groupby([{var}.index.get_level_values(0).normalize(), "
+                    f"{var}.index.get_level_values(1)])"
+                )
+            self.fixes_applied.append(f"multiindex_groupby: {m.group(0)[:60]} → two-level")
+            return repl
+
+        # groupby(['instrument', 'date']) — capture variable name before .groupby
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r'(\w+)\.groupby\(\[\'instrument\',\s*\'date\'\]\)',
+            lambda m: _replace_two_col_groupby(m, "instrument_date"),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+        # groupby(['date', 'instrument'])
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r'(\w+)\.groupby\(\[\'date\',\s*\'instrument\'\]\)',
+            lambda m: _replace_two_col_groupby(m, "date_instrument"),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+        # single: groupby(['instrument']) → groupby(level=1), but not on reset_index vars
+        def _replace_single_instrument_groupby(m: re.Match) -> str:
+            # Look backwards to find the variable name
+            prefix = fixed_code[: m.start()]
+            var_match = re.search(r'(\w+)\s*$', prefix)
+            var = var_match.group(1) if var_match else ''
+            if var in reset_vars:
+                return m.group(0)
+            self.fixes_applied.append("multiindex_groupby: groupby(['instrument']) → groupby(level=1)")
+            return ".groupby(level=1)"
+
+        if re.search(r"\.groupby\(\['instrument'\]\)", fixed_code):
+            fixed_code = re.sub(r"\.groupby\(\['instrument'\]\)", _replace_single_instrument_groupby, fixed_code)
+
+        # groupby(level=['instrument', 'date']) — uses level= keyword with string names.
+        # 'date' is NOT a valid level name in our (datetime, instrument) MultiIndex;
+        # replace with get_level_values to normalize datetime to daily timestamps.
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r"(\w+)\.groupby\(level=\['instrument',\s*'date'\]\)",
+            lambda m: (
+                self.fixes_applied.append(
+                    f"multiindex_groupby: {m.group(0)[:60]} → two-level get_level_values"
+                )
+                or f"{m.group(1)}.groupby([{m.group(1)}.index.get_level_values(1), "
+                f"{m.group(1)}.index.get_level_values(0).normalize()])"
+            ),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+        # groupby(level=['date', 'instrument'])
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r"(\w+)\.groupby\(level=\['date',\s*'instrument'\]\)",
+            lambda m: (
+                self.fixes_applied.append(
+                    f"multiindex_groupby: {m.group(0)[:60]} → two-level get_level_values"
+                )
+                or f"{m.group(1)}.groupby([{m.group(1)}.index.get_level_values(0).normalize(), "
+                f"{m.group(1)}.index.get_level_values(1)])"
+            ),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+        # single: groupby(level=['instrument']) → groupby(level=1)
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r"\.groupby\(level=\['instrument'\]\)",
+            lambda m: (self.fixes_applied.append("multiindex_groupby: groupby(level=['instrument']) → level=1") or ".groupby(level=1)"),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+
+        return fixed_code
+
+    def _fix_chained_groupby(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix two broken patterns the LLM generates when trying to group by (instrument, date):
+
+        Pattern A — chained groupby (runtime AttributeError):
+            var.groupby(level=1).groupby('date')
+            → var.groupby([var.index.get_level_values(1),
+                           var.index.get_level_values(0).normalize()])
+
+        Pattern B — keyword arg inside list (SyntaxError):
+            var.groupby([level=1, 'date'])
+            → same two-level replacement
+        """
+        fixed_code = code
+
+        def _two_level(var: str, tag: str) -> str:
+            self.fixes_applied.append(f"chained_groupby: {tag} → two-level")
+            return (
+                f"{var}.groupby([{var}.index.get_level_values(1), "
+                f"{var}.index.get_level_values(0).normalize()])"
+            )
+
+        # Pattern A: var.groupby(level=N).groupby('date')
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r'(\w+)\.groupby\(level=\d+\)\.groupby\(["\']date["\']\)',
+            lambda m: _two_level(m.group(1), m.group(0)[:60]),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+
+        # Pattern B: .groupby([level=N, 'date']) — SyntaxError in Python.
+        # The variable before .groupby may be complex (e.g. df[mask]) so we don't
+        # try to capture it; we use df as the index reference (always correct since
+        # all filtered frames share df's MultiIndex structure).
+        def _two_level_df(tag: str) -> str:
+            self.fixes_applied.append(f"chained_groupby: {tag} → two-level")
+            return ".groupby([df.index.get_level_values(1), df.index.get_level_values(0).normalize()])"
+
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r'\.groupby\(\[\s*level\s*=\s*\d+\s*,\s*["\']?date["\']?\s*\]\)',
+            lambda m: _two_level_df(m.group(0)[:60]),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+        # Also handle reversed order: ['date', level=N]
+        fixed_code = re.sub(
+            r'\.groupby\(\[\s*["\']?date["\']?\s*,\s*level\s*=\s*\d+\s*\]\)',
+            lambda m: _two_level_df(m.group(0)[:60]),
+            fixed_code,
+        )
+
+        return fixed_code
+
+    def _fix_rolling_ddof(self, code: str) -> str:
+        """
+        Fix: pandas rolling() does not accept a ddof kwarg — raises TypeError.
+        Remove ddof from both rolling(..., ddof=N) and rolling(...).std(ddof=N).
+        """
+        fixed_code = code
+
+        # Form 1: ddof inside rolling() — .rolling(window=N, min_periods=M, ddof=K)
+        def _strip_ddof_from_rolling(m):
+            inner = re.sub(r',?\s*ddof\s*=\s*\d+', '', m.group(1))
+            inner = inner.strip(', ')
+            self.fixes_applied.append("rolling_ddof: removed ddof from rolling()")
+            return f'.rolling({inner})'
+
+        fixed_code = re.sub(r'\.rolling\(([^)]*ddof\s*=\s*\d+[^)]*)\)', _strip_ddof_from_rolling, fixed_code)
+
+        # Form 2: ddof inside .std() / .var() — .std(ddof=N)
+        if re.search(r'\.(std|var)\([^)]*ddof\s*=\s*\d+', fixed_code):
+            fixed_code = re.sub(r'\.(std|var)\([^)]*ddof\s*=\s*\d+[^)]*\)', r'.\1()', fixed_code)
+            self.fixes_applied.append("rolling_ddof: removed ddof from std()/var()")
+
+        return fixed_code
+
     def _fix_min_periods(self, code: str) -> str:
         """
         Fix: Ensure min_periods matches window size in rolling calculations.
@@ -325,6 +681,45 @@ class FactorAutoFixer:
             fixed_code = fixed_code.replace(old_code, new_code)
             self.fixes_applied.append(f"groupby: fixed rolling correlation (window={window}) with reset_index")
 
+        # === GENERAL FIX: DF.groupby(level=N)['col'].apply(lambda x: EXPR) ===
+        # apply() on a grouped Series returns a MultiIndex result (extra level prepended),
+        # causing index shape mismatch when assigned back to df['col'].
+        # Replace with transform() which preserves the original index.
+        col_apply_pattern = re.compile(
+            r"(\w+)\.groupby\(level=(\d+)\)\['([^']+)'\]\.apply\((\s*lambda\s+\w+\s*:.*?)\)",
+            re.DOTALL,
+        )
+        for m in list(col_apply_pattern.finditer(fixed_code)):
+            full = m.group(0)
+            df_var = m.group(1)
+            level = m.group(2)
+            col = m.group(3)
+            lam = m.group(4).strip()
+            new_expr = f"{df_var}.groupby(level={level})['{col}'].transform({lam})"
+            fixed_code = fixed_code.replace(full, new_expr, 1)
+            self.fixes_applied.append(
+                f"groupby: {df_var}.groupby(level={level})['{col}'].apply() → transform()"
+            )
+
+        # === FIX: .transform(...).reset_index(level=N, drop=True) ===
+        # transform() already returns the same index as the input — adding reset_index()
+        # after it drops an index level and causes ValueError on assignment back to df['col'].
+        # Detected line-by-line: if a line contains both .transform( and .reset_index(level=
+        reset_suffix = re.compile(r'\s*\.reset_index\s*\(\s*level\s*=[^,)]+,\s*drop\s*=\s*True\s*\)\s*$')
+        new_lines = []
+        changed = False
+        for line in fixed_code.splitlines():
+            if '.transform(' in line and '.reset_index(' in line:
+                cleaned = reset_suffix.sub('', line)
+                if cleaned != line:
+                    new_lines.append(cleaned)
+                    changed = True
+                    continue
+            new_lines.append(line)
+        if changed:
+            fixed_code = '\n'.join(new_lines)
+            self.fixes_applied.append("groupby: removed spurious .reset_index() after .transform()")
+
         # Pattern: Simple groupby().apply() with rolling().method()
         # df.groupby(level=N).apply(lambda x: x['col'].rolling(...).method())
         apply_pattern = r"df\.groupby\(level=(\d+)\)\.apply\(\s*lambda\s+x:\s+x\['([^']+)'\]\.rolling\([^)]+\)\.(\w+)\([^)]*\)\s*\)"

rdagent/components/coder/factor_coder/prompts.yaml

@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ evolving_strategy_factor_implementation_v1_system: |-
   - ALWAYS use `min_periods=N` where N equals the window size in rolling calculations (e.g., `.rolling(20, min_periods=20)`)
   - ALWAYS handle infinite values after division: `.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan)` before saving results
   - ALWAYS use `groupby(level=1)` or `groupby('instrument')` before rolling operations on MultiIndex dataframes
-  - Process the COMPLETE date range (2020-2026), do NOT filter by date
+  - Process the COMPLETE date range available in the HDF5 file (do NOT filter by date — the file may contain 2024 debug data or full 2020-2026 data)
   - Use `groupby().transform()` instead of `groupby().apply()` for single-column assignments
 
   Notice that you should not add any other text before or after the json format.

rdagent/oai/backend/base.py

@@ -720,7 +720,13 @@ class APIBackend(ABC):
 
             if finish_reason is None or finish_reason != "length":
                 break  # we get a full response now.
-            new_messages.append({"role": "assistant", "content": response})
+            # Merge into the previous assistant message if there already is one at the end.
+            # Appending a second consecutive assistant message causes llama-server to return 400
+            # ("Cannot have 2 or more assistant messages at the end of the list").
+            if new_messages and new_messages[-1]["role"] == "assistant":
+                new_messages[-1]["content"] += response
+            else:
+                new_messages.append({"role": "assistant", "content": response})
         else:
             raise RuntimeError(f"Failed to continue the conversation after {try_n} retries.")
 

rdagent/scenarios/qlib/developer/factor_runner.py

@@ -29,6 +29,83 @@ from rdagent.scenarios.qlib.experiment.model_experiment import QlibModelExperime
 DIRNAME = Path(__file__).absolute().resolve().parent
 DIRNAME_local = Path.cwd()
 
+
+def _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed(factor_col: "pd.Series", factor_name: str) -> "pd.Series":
+    """Detect and fix look-ahead bias in daily-constant factors.
+
+    A factor is "daily-constant" when every minute bar within the same calendar
+    day carries an identical value. This happens when LLM code computes a daily
+    aggregate (e.g. today's log return) and forward-fills it across all intraday
+    bars without shifting — meaning the end-of-day value is visible at 00:00.
+
+    Fix: shift by one trading day so that the value assigned to day T is the
+    aggregate computed from day T-1, eliminating the forward-looking information.
+    """
+    import numpy as np
+
+    try:
+        notnull = factor_col.dropna()
+        if len(notnull) < 200:
+            return factor_col
+
+        datetimes = notnull.index.get_level_values("datetime")
+        dates = datetimes.normalize()
+
+        # Sample up to 50 random days and check intra-day uniqueness
+        unique_dates = pd.Series(dates.unique())
+        sample_dates = unique_dates.sample(min(50, len(unique_dates)), random_state=42)
+
+        daily_unique_counts = []
+        for d in sample_dates:
+            mask = dates == d
+            vals = notnull.values[mask]
+            if len(vals) > 1:
+                daily_unique_counts.append(len(np.unique(vals[~np.isnan(vals)])))
+
+        if not daily_unique_counts:
+            return factor_col
+
+        # If >90% of sampled days have exactly 1 unique value → daily-constant
+        fraction_constant = sum(1 for c in daily_unique_counts if c == 1) / len(daily_unique_counts)
+        if fraction_constant < 0.90:
+            return factor_col  # Intraday factor — no shift needed
+
+        logger.warning(
+            f"[LookAheadFix] Factor '{factor_name}' is daily-constant "
+            f"({fraction_constant:.0%} of days). Applying 1-day shift to remove look-ahead bias."
+        )
+
+        # Shift: for each instrument, map daily values forward by 1 trading day
+        instruments = factor_col.index.get_level_values("instrument").unique()
+        shifted_parts = []
+        for inst in instruments:
+            inst_series = factor_col.xs(inst, level="instrument")
+            # Get one value per calendar day (the first non-null bar)
+            inst_dt = inst_series.index.normalize()
+            daily_vals = inst_series.groupby(inst_dt).first()
+            # Shift by 1 day
+            daily_vals_shifted = daily_vals.shift(1)
+            # Forward-fill back to minute bars
+            minute_idx = inst_series.index
+            minute_dates = minute_idx.normalize()
+            shifted_minute = minute_dates.map(daily_vals_shifted)
+            shifted_s = pd.Series(
+                shifted_minute.values,
+                index=pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays(
+                    [inst_series.index, [inst] * len(inst_series)],
+                    names=["datetime", "instrument"],
+                ),
+                name=factor_col.name,
+            )
+            shifted_parts.append(shifted_s)
+
+        return pd.concat(shifted_parts).sort_index()
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.debug(f"[LookAheadFix] Could not apply daily shift for '{factor_name}': {e}")
+        return factor_col
+
+
 # TODO: supporting multiprocessing and keep previous results
 
 
@@ -391,8 +468,19 @@ class QlibFactorRunner(CachedRunner[QlibFactorExperiment]):
         import numpy as np
 
         try:
-            # Get workspace path
-            workspace_path = exp.experiment_workspace.workspace_path
+            # Get workspace path — factor code and result.h5 live in sub_workspace_list[0],
+            # not in experiment_workspace (which is the Qlib template workspace).
+            workspace_path = None
+            if exp.sub_workspace_list:
+                for ws in exp.sub_workspace_list:
+                    if ws is not None and hasattr(ws, 'workspace_path'):
+                        candidate = ws.workspace_path / "result.h5"
+                        if candidate.exists():
+                            workspace_path = ws.workspace_path
+                            break
+            if workspace_path is None:
+                # Fallback to experiment_workspace
+                workspace_path = exp.experiment_workspace.workspace_path
             if workspace_path is None:
                 return None
 
@@ -409,6 +497,12 @@ class QlibFactorRunner(CachedRunner[QlibFactorExperiment]):
             factor_col = factor_values.iloc[:, 0]
             factor_name = factor_values.columns[0]
 
+            # Detect and fix look-ahead bias in daily-constant factors.
+            # If a factor has the same value for all minute bars within each calendar day
+            # it was computed from same-day data (e.g. today's close return at 00:00).
+            # Fix: shift by 1 trading day so value at day T = aggregate of day T-1.
+            factor_col = _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed(factor_col, factor_name)
+
             # Load source data for forward returns
             data_path = (
                 Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent.parent
@@ -587,10 +681,12 @@ class QlibFactorRunner(CachedRunner[QlibFactorExperiment]):
             from pathlib import Path
             from rdagent.components.backtesting import ResultsDatabase
 
-            # Get factor name from hypothesis
+            # Get factor name: prefer hypothesis, fallback to result Series 'factor_name' key
             factor_name = "unknown"
             if hasattr(exp, 'hypothesis') and exp.hypothesis is not None:
                 factor_name = getattr(exp.hypothesis, 'hypothesis', 'unknown')
+            if factor_name == 'unknown' and isinstance(result, pd.Series) and 'factor_name' in result.index:
+                factor_name = str(result['factor_name'])
 
             # Check if already rejected by protection
             if getattr(exp, 'rejected_by_protection', False):
@@ -824,41 +920,74 @@ class QlibFactorRunner(CachedRunner[QlibFactorExperiment]):
         """
         Save factor time-series values as parquet for strategy building.
 
-        This is essential for walk-forward validation and strategy combination.
-
-        Parameters
-        ----------
-        factor_name : str
-            Name of the factor
-        exp : QlibFactorExperiment
-            The experiment with factor values
+        Reruns the factor code on the FULL 6-year dataset so the parquet covers
+        the complete backtest range (not just the debug 2024 subset).
         """
         import os as _os
+        import subprocess
+        import shutil
+        import tempfile
 
         try:
-            # Get workspace path
-            workspace_path = exp.experiment_workspace.workspace_path
+            # factor.py lives in sub_workspace_list[0], not experiment_workspace
+            workspace_path = None
+            if exp.sub_workspace_list:
+                for ws in exp.sub_workspace_list:
+                    if ws is not None and hasattr(ws, 'workspace_path'):
+                        fp = ws.workspace_path / "factor.py"
+                        if fp.exists():
+                            workspace_path = ws.workspace_path
+                            break
+            if workspace_path is None:
+                workspace_path = exp.experiment_workspace.workspace_path
             if workspace_path is None:
                 return
 
-            result_h5 = workspace_path / "result.h5"
-            if not result_h5.exists():
+            factor_py = workspace_path / "factor.py"
+            if not factor_py.exists():
                 return
 
-            # Read factor values
+            project_root = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent.parent
+            full_data = (
+                project_root
+                / "git_ignore_folder"
+                / "factor_implementation_source_data"
+                / "intraday_pv.h5"
+            )
+            if not full_data.exists():
+                return
+
+            # Run factor code on full data in a temp workspace
             import pandas as pd
-            df = pd.read_hdf(str(result_h5), key="data")
+            with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory(prefix="predix_fullval_") as tmp_dir:
+                tmp = Path(tmp_dir)
+                shutil.copy(str(factor_py), str(tmp / "factor.py"))
+                shutil.copy(str(full_data), str(tmp / "intraday_pv.h5"))
+
+                ret = subprocess.run(
+                    ["python", "factor.py"],
+                    cwd=str(tmp),
+                    capture_output=True,
+                    timeout=300,
+                )
+                if ret.returncode != 0:
+                    # Fall back to debug-data result if full-data run fails
+                    result_h5 = workspace_path / "result.h5"
+                    if not result_h5.exists():
+                        return
+                    df = pd.read_hdf(str(result_h5), key="data")
+                else:
+                    result_h5_full = tmp / "result.h5"
+                    if not result_h5_full.exists():
+                        return
+                    df = pd.read_hdf(str(result_h5_full), key="data")
+
             if df is None or df.empty:
                 return
 
-            # Get the factor series (first column)
             series = df.iloc[:, 0]
             series.name = factor_name
 
-            # Save to results/factors/values/
-            project_root = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent.parent
-
-            # Parallel run isolation
             parallel_run_id = _os.getenv("PARALLEL_RUN_ID", "0")
             if parallel_run_id != "0":
                 values_dir = project_root / "results" / "runs" / f"run{parallel_run_id}" / "factors" / "values"
@@ -866,16 +995,11 @@ class QlibFactorRunner(CachedRunner[QlibFactorExperiment]):
                 values_dir = project_root / "results" / "factors" / "values"
 
             values_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
-
-            # Safe filename
             safe_name = factor_name.replace("/", "_").replace("\\", "_").replace(" ", "_")[:100]
             parquet_path = values_dir / f"{safe_name}.parquet"
+            series.to_frame().to_parquet(str(parquet_path))
 
-            # Save as parquet (with datetime index)
-            series.to_parquet(str(parquet_path))
-
-        except Exception as e:
-            # Don't let factor value saving break the main workflow
+        except Exception:
             pass
 
     def _log_result_warnings(self, factor_name: str, result, metrics: dict) -> None:

rdagent/scenarios/qlib/experiment/factor_data_template/README.md

@@ -23,14 +23,25 @@ $low: low price at 1-minute bar.
 $volume: volume at 1-minute bar (tick volume for FX).
 
 ## Important Notes for 1min Data
-- 96 bars = 1 trading day (24 hours for FX)
+- 1 bar = 1 minute (confirmed)
 - 16 bars = 16 minutes
-- 4 bars = 4 minutes
-- 1 bar = 1 minute
+- 60 bars = 1 hour
+- ~1440 bars = 1 full trading day (FX trades nearly 24h, Mon 00:00 - Fri 22:00 UTC approx.)
+- Typical bars per calendar day: ~1200-1440 (varies by weekday, holidays have fewer)
+- Do NOT assume 96 bars/day — the actual count depends on the date
 - Data range: 2020-01-01 to 2026-03-20
 - Instrument: EURUSD
 - Timezone: UTC
 
+## IMPORTANT: Bars per Day Correction
+The dataset has approximately 1440 bars per full trading day (1 bar = 1 minute, ~24h of FX trading).
+Some older documentation incorrectly stated "96 bars = 1 day" — this is WRONG. Always use:
+- 60 bars = 1 hour
+- 480 bars = 8 hours (London session 08:00-16:00 UTC)
+- 180 bars = 3 hours (London/NY overlap 13:00-16:00 UTC)
+Use datetime hour filtering (e.g., `df[df.index.get_level_values('datetime').hour.between(8, 15)]`)
+to select session bars — do NOT use bar-count offsets to define sessions.
+
 ## Session Times (UTC)
 - Asian: 00:00-08:00 UTC (low volatility)
 - London: 08:00-16:00 UTC (high volatility)

rdagent/scenarios/qlib/experiment/prompts.yaml

@@ -104,7 +104,7 @@ qlib_factor_strategy: |-
      result_df.columns = ['daily_volume_price_divergence']
      ```
 
-  4. **Process ALL data — do not filter dates**: The source HDF5 contains data from 2020-01-01 to 2026-03-20. Do NOT filter to a single year. If your output has only 314 entries (one year of daily data), the factor will be rejected. Expected output: ~1500+ daily entries for 2020-2026.
+  4. **Process ALL data — do not filter dates**: The source HDF5 contains data from 2020-01-01 to 2026-03-20 (development runs may use a 2024-only debug dataset with ~300 entries, which is acceptable). Do NOT filter to a single year in your code. Write your code to process whatever date range is available in the HDF5 file — do not hardcode date filters. Expected output for production data: ~1500+ daily entries for 2020-2026. Expected output for debug data: ~300 daily entries for 2024. Both are valid.
 
   5. **Use `transform()` instead of `apply()` for per-group calculations**: `transform()` preserves the original index while `apply()` may reduce the number of rows unexpectedly:
      ```python
@@ -121,6 +121,35 @@ qlib_factor_strategy: |-
      assert result_df.index.names == ['datetime', 'instrument'], f"Index names must be ['datetime', 'instrument'], got {result_df.index.names}"
      ```
 
+  7. **NEVER use same-day aggregations as the factor value — always shift by 1 day**: If your factor computes a daily aggregate (e.g. daily close return, daily OHLC range, daily volume), that aggregate is only known at end-of-day. Using it at the start of the same day is look-ahead bias. You MUST shift the daily aggregate by 1 day before forward-filling to minute bars:
+     ```python
+     # WRONG: look-ahead bias! Today's close return is not known at 00:00
+     daily_ret = df['$close'].groupby(level='instrument').resample('1D', level='datetime').last().pct_change()
+     result_df['my_factor'] = daily_ret.groupby(level='instrument').transform(lambda x: x.reindex(df.index.get_level_values('datetime'), method='ffill'))
+
+     # CORRECT: shift by 1 trading day so factor value at day T = aggregate of day T-1
+     daily_close = df.groupby([df.index.get_level_values('datetime').normalize(), df.index.get_level_values('instrument')])['$close'].last()
+     daily_close.index.names = ['date', 'instrument']
+     daily_ret = daily_close.groupby(level='instrument').pct_change().shift(1)  # <-- shift(1) is MANDATORY
+     # then map back to minute bars via ffill
+     ```
+     This rule applies to ALL daily aggregations: returns, OHLC stats, volume, momentum, slopes, etc.
+     **Session-based aggregations (London, NY, Asian session returns) are also daily aggregations** — the London
+     session (08:00-16:00 UTC) ends at 16:00, so its return must be shifted by 1 day before use.
+     Intraday rolling factors (e.g. 30-min rolling std computed at bar t using only bars t-N..t-1) do NOT need this shift.
+
+  8. **PREFER pure intraday rolling factors**: Factors that use only a trailing window of recent bars (e.g.
+     rolling(30).mean() of returns, RSI(14), Bollinger Band z-score) have NO look-ahead risk and vary every
+     minute. These are the best candidates for short-horizon (60-180 bar) prediction. Examples:
+     - Rolling 15-min / 30-min / 60-min return momentum (15, 30, 60 bars respectively)
+     - Rolling volatility (std of returns over 20-60 bars)
+     - Distance of close from N-bar moving average (z-score)
+     - RSI or similar oscillators computed on 1-min bars
+     - VWAP deviation (requires volume — use $volume column)
+     Always use `.shift(1)` on the lagged window (e.g. `rolling(N).mean().shift(1)`) to avoid using the
+     current bar's own price in its own feature value.
+     NOTE: 1 bar = 1 minute. The data has ~1440 bars per full trading day. Do NOT use 96 as a day proxy.
+
 qlib_factor_output_format: |-
   Your output should be a pandas dataframe similar to the following example information:
   <class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>

rdagent/scenarios/qlib/proposal/factor_proposal.py

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import json
+import os
 from typing import List, Tuple
 
 from rdagent.components.coder.factor_coder.factor import FactorExperiment, FactorTask
@@ -9,6 +10,47 @@ from rdagent.scenarios.qlib.experiment.model_experiment import QlibModelExperime
 from rdagent.scenarios.qlib.experiment.quant_experiment import QlibQuantScenario
 from rdagent.utils.agent.tpl import T
 
+
+def _build_compressed_history(trace: Trace, max_history: int) -> str:
+    """Return hypothesis_and_feedback string with only `max_history` entries.
+
+    Older entries beyond the last 2 are compressed to one bullet line each.
+    """
+    if len(trace.hist) == 0:
+        return "No previous hypothesis and feedback available since it's the first round."
+
+    FULL_DETAIL = 2
+    old_hist = trace.hist[:-FULL_DETAIL] if len(trace.hist) > FULL_DETAIL else []
+    recent_hist = trace.hist[-FULL_DETAIL:] if len(trace.hist) > FULL_DETAIL else trace.hist
+
+    parts = []
+    if old_hist:
+        lines = ["## Earlier experiments (summarized):"]
+        for exp, fb in old_hist:
+            names = []
+            for task in exp.sub_tasks:
+                if task is not None and hasattr(task, "factor_name"):
+                    names.append(task.factor_name)
+                elif task is not None and hasattr(task, "model_type"):
+                    names.append(getattr(task, "model_type", "model"))
+            ic_str = ""
+            try:
+                if exp.result is not None and "IC" in exp.result.index:
+                    ic_str = f" IC={exp.result.loc['IC']:.4f}"
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+            decision = "PASS" if fb.decision else "FAIL"
+            obs = (fb.observations or "")[:120].replace("\n", " ")
+            lines.append(f"- [{decision}]{ic_str} {', '.join(names) or 'unknown'}: {obs}")
+        parts.append("\n".join(lines))
+
+    if recent_hist:
+        rt = Trace(trace.scen)
+        rt.hist = recent_hist
+        parts.append(T("scenarios.qlib.prompts:hypothesis_and_feedback").r(trace=rt))
+
+    return "\n\n".join(parts)
+
 QlibFactorHypothesis = Hypothesis
 
 
@@ -17,13 +59,10 @@ class QlibFactorHypothesisGen(FactorHypothesisGen):
         super().__init__(scen)
 
     def prepare_context(self, trace: Trace) -> Tuple[dict, bool]:
-        hypothesis_and_feedback = (
-            T("scenarios.qlib.prompts:hypothesis_and_feedback").r(
-                trace=trace,
-            )
-            if len(trace.hist) > 0
-            else "No previous hypothesis and feedback available since it's the first round."
-        )
+        max_h = int(os.environ.get("QLIB_QUANT_MAX_FACTOR_HISTORY", "20"))
+        limited = Trace(trace.scen)
+        limited.hist = trace.hist[-max_h:] if len(trace.hist) > max_h else trace.hist
+        hypothesis_and_feedback = _build_compressed_history(limited, max_h)
         last_hypothesis_and_feedback = (
             T("scenarios.qlib.prompts:last_hypothesis_and_feedback").r(
                 experiment=trace.hist[-1][0], feedback=trace.hist[-1][1]
@@ -70,15 +109,15 @@ class QlibFactorHypothesis2Experiment(FactorHypothesis2Experiment):
         if len(trace.hist) == 0:
             hypothesis_and_feedback = "No previous hypothesis and feedback available since it's the first round."
         else:
+            max_h = int(os.environ.get("QLIB_QUANT_MAX_FACTOR_HISTORY", "20"))
+            factor_hist = [
+                e for e in trace.hist
+                if not hasattr(e[0].hypothesis, "action") or e[0].hypothesis.action == "factor"
+            ][-max_h:]
             specific_trace = Trace(trace.scen)
-            for i in range(len(trace.hist) - 1, -1, -1):
-                if not hasattr(trace.hist[i][0].hypothesis, "action") or trace.hist[i][0].hypothesis.action == "factor":
-                    specific_trace.hist.insert(0, trace.hist[i])
-            if len(specific_trace.hist) > 0:
-                specific_trace.hist.reverse()
-                hypothesis_and_feedback = T("scenarios.qlib.prompts:hypothesis_and_feedback").r(
-                    trace=specific_trace,
-                )
+            specific_trace.hist = factor_hist
+            if specific_trace.hist:
+                hypothesis_and_feedback = _build_compressed_history(specific_trace, max_h)
             else:
                 hypothesis_and_feedback = "No previous hypothesis and feedback available."
 

rdagent/scenarios/qlib/proposal/quant_proposal.py

@@ -152,9 +152,41 @@ class QlibQuantHypothesisGen(FactorAndModelHypothesisGen):
                         factor_inserted = True
             if len(specific_trace.hist) > 0:
                 specific_trace.hist.reverse()
-                hypothesis_and_feedback = T("scenarios.qlib.prompts:hypothesis_and_feedback").r(
-                    trace=specific_trace,
-                )
+                # Keep only the 2 most recent experiments in full detail; compress older ones
+                # to brief bullet points to stay within the LLM context window.
+                FULL_DETAIL_COUNT = 2
+                old_hist = specific_trace.hist[:-FULL_DETAIL_COUNT] if len(specific_trace.hist) > FULL_DETAIL_COUNT else []
+                recent_hist = specific_trace.hist[-FULL_DETAIL_COUNT:] if len(specific_trace.hist) > FULL_DETAIL_COUNT else specific_trace.hist
+
+                parts = []
+                if old_hist:
+                    summary_lines = ["## Earlier experiments (summarized):"]
+                    for exp, fb in old_hist:
+                        factor_names = []
+                        for task in exp.sub_tasks:
+                            if task is not None and hasattr(task, "factor_name"):
+                                factor_names.append(task.factor_name)
+                            elif task is not None and hasattr(task, "model_type"):
+                                factor_names.append(getattr(task, "model_type", "model"))
+                        names_str = ", ".join(factor_names) if factor_names else "unknown"
+                        ic_str = ""
+                        try:
+                            if exp.result is not None:
+                                ic_val = exp.result.loc["IC"] if "IC" in exp.result.index else ""
+                                ic_str = f" IC={ic_val:.4f}" if ic_val != "" else ""
+                        except Exception:
+                            pass
+                        decision_str = "PASS" if fb.decision else "FAIL"
+                        obs_short = (fb.observations or "")[:120].replace("\n", " ")
+                        summary_lines.append(f"- [{decision_str}]{ic_str} {names_str}: {obs_short}")
+                    parts.append("\n".join(summary_lines))
+
+                if recent_hist:
+                    recent_trace = Trace(specific_trace.scen)
+                    recent_trace.hist = recent_hist
+                    parts.append(T("scenarios.qlib.prompts:hypothesis_and_feedback").r(trace=recent_trace))
+
+                hypothesis_and_feedback = "\n\n".join(parts)
             else:
                 hypothesis_and_feedback = "No previous hypothesis and feedback available."
 

rdagent/utils/workflow/loop.py

@@ -270,6 +270,11 @@ class LoopBase:
                         msg = "We have reset the loop instance, stop all the routines and resume."
                         raise self.LoopResumeError(msg) from e
                     else:
+                        # Do NOT advance step_idx for unhandled exceptions (e.g. LoopResumeError
+                        # propagating from _propose). Keeping step_idx at the current step lets
+                        # kickoff_loop retry step 0 on the next resume instead of permanently
+                        # corrupting the loop with a missing direct_exp_gen result.
+                        step_forward = False
                         raise  # re-raise unhandled exceptions
                 finally:
                     # No matter the execution succeed or not, we have to finish the following steps

scripts/predix_full_eval.py

@@ -198,6 +198,55 @@ def scan_factors(workspace_dir: Path, skip_evaluated: bool = True) -> List[Facto
     return factors
 
 
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Look-ahead bias detection for daily-constant factors
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+def _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed(factor_col: "pd.Series", factor_name: str) -> "pd.Series":
+    """Detect daily-constant factors (look-ahead bias) and shift by 1 trading day."""
+    sample_days = factor_col.index.get_level_values("datetime").normalize().unique()
+    if len(sample_days) < 10:
+        return factor_col
+    rng = np.random.default_rng(42)
+    days_to_check = rng.choice(sample_days, size=min(50, len(sample_days)), replace=False)
+    constant_count = 0
+    for day in days_to_check:
+        day_mask = factor_col.index.get_level_values("datetime").normalize() == day
+        day_vals = factor_col[day_mask].dropna()
+        if len(day_vals) == 0:
+            continue
+        if day_vals.nunique() == 1:
+            constant_count += 1
+    fraction_constant = constant_count / len(days_to_check)
+    if fraction_constant < 0.90:
+        return factor_col
+    # Shift by 1 trading day per instrument
+    import logging
+    logging.getLogger(__name__).info(
+        "Factor '%s' is %.0f%% daily-constant — shifting 1 trading day to fix look-ahead bias",
+        factor_name, fraction_constant * 100,
+    )
+    instruments = factor_col.index.get_level_values("instrument").unique() if "instrument" in factor_col.index.names else [None]
+    shifted_parts = []
+    for instr in instruments:
+        if instr is not None:
+            mask = factor_col.index.get_level_values("instrument") == instr
+            col_instr = factor_col[mask]
+        else:
+            col_instr = factor_col
+        dates = col_instr.index.get_level_values("datetime").normalize()
+        trading_days = dates.unique().sort_values()
+        day_first = col_instr.groupby(dates).first()
+        day_first_shifted = day_first.shift(1)
+        day_first_shifted.index = pd.to_datetime(day_first_shifted.index)
+        day_map = day_first_shifted.reindex(pd.to_datetime(trading_days)).values
+        new_vals = pd.Series(
+            day_map[np.searchsorted(trading_days.values, dates.values)],
+            index=col_instr.index,
+        )
+        shifted_parts.append(new_vals)
+    return pd.concat(shifted_parts).sort_index()
+
+
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Factor evaluator
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -263,6 +312,7 @@ def evaluate_factor_full(factor: FactorInfo, full_data: pd.DataFrame,
             result = pd.read_hdf(str(result_file), key="data")
             total_count = len(result)
             factor_val = result.iloc[:, 0]
+            factor_val = _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed(factor_val, factor.factor_name)
             non_null_count = factor_val.notna().sum()
 
             if non_null_count < 1000:

scripts/predix_gen_strategies_real_bt.py

@@ -250,7 +250,7 @@ Hard requirements:
 - NO global mean/std — always use rolling(window).mean() with shift(1) to avoid look-ahead bias"""
 
         else:
-            system_prompt = f"""You are a quantitative trading expert specializing in EUR/USD intraday strategies.
+            system_prompt = f"""You are a quantitative trading expert specializing in EUR/USD daily swing strategies.
 
 CRITICAL RULES for {STYLE_DESC} (forward horizon: {FORWARD_BARS} bars = ~{FORWARD_BARS/60:.1f} hours):
 1. ONLY use the factors listed below - no others!
@@ -258,15 +258,27 @@ CRITICAL RULES for {STYLE_DESC} (forward horizon: {FORWARD_BARS} bars = ~{FORWAR
 3. Create a pandas Series called 'signal' with values: 1 (long), -1 (short), 0 (neutral)
 4. signal.index MUST match close.index
 5. signal.name must be 'signal'
+6. IMPORTANT: factors are DAILY values broadcast to every 1-minute bar — they change once per day.
+   Use daily-level logic: compare today's factor value to a rolling daily mean (window 5-20 DAYS).
+   To get daily rolling mean: group by date, take first value per day, compute rolling, then reindex back.
+   Example: dates = factors[col].index.get_level_values('datetime').normalize()
+            daily_vals = factors[col].groupby(dates).first()
+            daily_mean = daily_vals.rolling(10).mean().shift(1)
+            daily_signal = (daily_vals > daily_mean).astype(int) * 2 - 1
+            signal = daily_signal.reindex(dates).values  (broadcast back to minute bars)
+7. The signal should change roughly once per day — this produces ~250-500 trades over 6 years.
+8. Keep conditions SIMPLE: one factor above/below its N-day rolling average. Avoid combining 3+ conditions.
 
 Output ONLY valid JSON with these fields:
 {{"strategy_name": "short_name", "factor_names": ["f1", "f2"], "description": "one sentence", "code": "python code"}}"""
 
-            user_prompt = f"""Create a EUR/USD trading strategy using these factors:
+            user_prompt = f"""Create a EUR/USD SWING trading strategy (hold ~{FORWARD_BARS/60:.0f} hours) using these factors:
 
 {factor_list}
 
-{f'Previous feedback: {feedback}' if feedback else 'First attempt - be creative!'}"""
+{f'Previous feedback: {feedback}' if feedback else 'First attempt - be creative!'}
+
+Use daily-level signal logic (factor above/below rolling daily mean). Signal changes once per day."""
         
         api = APIBackend()
         response = api.build_messages_and_create_chat_completion(

test/qlib/test_auto_fixer.py

@@ -0,0 +1,249 @@
+"""Tests for FactorAutoFixer — the pre-execution code patcher."""
+
+import pytest
+
+from rdagent.components.coder.factor_coder.auto_fixer import FactorAutoFixer
+
+
+@pytest.fixture()
+def fixer():
+    return FactorAutoFixer()
+
+
+class TestResetIndexGroupby:
+    def test_replaces_level_groupby_on_reset_var(self, fixer):
+        code = "df_r = df.reset_index()\ndf_r['x'] = df_r.groupby(level=1)['$close'].mean()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "groupby('instrument')" in result
+
+    def test_does_not_touch_normal_multiindex_groupby(self, fixer):
+        code = "df['x'] = df.groupby(level=1)['$close'].mean()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "groupby(level=1)" in result
+
+
+class TestGroupbyMixedLevels:
+    def test_strips_string_from_mixed_list(self, fixer):
+        result = fixer.fix("df.groupby(level=[1, 'date']).apply(fn)")
+        assert "groupby(level=1)" in result
+
+    def test_multiple_ints_kept(self, fixer):
+        result = fixer.fix("df.groupby(level=[0, 1, 'x']).apply(fn)")
+        assert "groupby(level=[0, 1])" in result
+
+
+class TestGroupbyColumnOnMultiindex:
+    def test_instrument_date_becomes_two_level(self, fixer):
+        code = "df['v'] = df.groupby(['instrument', 'date'])['$volume'].cumsum()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values(1)" in result
+        assert "normalize()" in result
+        assert "level=1)" not in result.split("get_level_values")[0]
+
+    def test_date_instrument_becomes_two_level(self, fixer):
+        code = "df['v'] = df.groupby(['date', 'instrument'])['$volume'].cumsum()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values(0).normalize()" in result
+        assert "get_level_values(1)" in result
+
+    def test_single_instrument_becomes_level1(self, fixer):
+        result = fixer.fix("df.groupby(['instrument'])['x'].mean()")
+        assert "groupby(level=1)" in result
+
+    def test_reset_index_not_double_fixed(self, fixer):
+        # After reset_index fix emits groupby('instrument'), this fixer must NOT
+        # convert that to groupby(level=1).
+        code = "df_r = df.reset_index()\ndf_r['x'] = df_r.groupby(level=1)['p'].mean()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "groupby('instrument')" in result
+
+
+class TestChainedGroupby:
+    def test_chained_groupby_level_then_date(self, fixer):
+        code = "df.groupby(level=1).groupby('date')['price_volume'].transform('cumsum')"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values(1)" in result
+        assert "get_level_values(0).normalize()" in result
+        assert ".groupby('date')" not in result
+
+    def test_chained_groupby_with_double_quotes(self, fixer):
+        code = 'df.groupby(level=0).groupby("date")["col"].sum()'
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values" in result
+        assert '.groupby("date")' not in result
+
+    def test_list_with_level_keyword_syntax_error(self, fixer):
+        # groupby([level=1, 'date']) is a SyntaxError — must be fixed before execution
+        code = "asian_vol = df[mask].groupby([level=1, 'date'])['log_return'].std()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values(1)" in result
+        assert "normalize()" in result
+        assert "level=1," not in result
+
+    def test_list_with_level_keyword_reversed(self, fixer):
+        code = "df.groupby(['date', level=1])['x'].mean()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values" in result
+        assert "level=1" not in result
+
+
+class TestMinPeriodsNotTouched:
+    def test_small_min_periods_preserved(self, fixer):
+        # _fix_min_periods is disabled — LLM-set min_periods must not be changed.
+        # window=60, min_periods=1 should stay as-is (was wrongly raised to 60 before).
+        result = fixer.fix("df.groupby(level=1)['x'].transform(lambda x: x.rolling(window=60, min_periods=1).mean())")
+        assert "min_periods=1" in result
+
+    def test_large_window_min_periods_preserved(self, fixer):
+        # window=240 > 96 bars/day: if min_periods were set to 240 the output would be
+        # all-NaN for intraday data. Verify we leave it untouched.
+        result = fixer.fix("df['x'] = df.groupby(level=1)['y'].transform(lambda x: x.rolling(240, min_periods=10).std())")
+        assert "min_periods=10" in result
+
+
+class TestInstrumentColumnAccess:
+    def test_instrument_column_replaced(self, fixer):
+        code = "df['group_key'] = df['instrument'] + '_' + df['day_id'].astype(str)"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df.index.get_level_values(1)" in result
+        assert "df['instrument']" not in result
+
+    def test_reset_index_var_not_touched(self, fixer):
+        # After reset_index, 'instrument' IS a real column — must not be replaced
+        code = "df_r = df.reset_index()\nval = df_r['instrument'].unique()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df_r['instrument']" in result
+        assert "get_level_values" not in result
+
+    def test_groupby_after_instrument_fix(self, fixer):
+        # Combined: df['instrument'] in a groupby context
+        code = "df['key'] = df['instrument']\nout = df.groupby(df['key'])[['$close']].mean()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df['instrument']" not in result
+
+    def test_assignment_target_not_touched(self, fixer):
+        # df['instrument'] = <expr> is an assignment — must NOT be converted to
+        # df.index.get_level_values(1) = <expr> (SyntaxError)
+        code = "df['instrument'] = df.index.get_level_values('instrument')"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df['instrument'] =" in result
+
+
+class TestInstrumentLocMultiindex:
+    def test_loc_replaced_with_xs(self, fixer):
+        code = (
+            "for instrument in df.index.get_level_values('instrument').unique():\n"
+            "    inst_df = df.loc[instrument].copy()\n"
+        )
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df.xs(instrument, level=1)" in result
+        assert "df.loc[instrument]" not in result
+
+    def test_loc_replaced_with_level1_int(self, fixer):
+        code = (
+            "for inst in df.index.get_level_values(1).unique():\n"
+            "    data = df.loc[inst]\n"
+        )
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df.xs(inst, level=1)" in result
+
+    def test_loc_assignment_not_touched(self, fixer):
+        # Write-back df.loc[instrument] = ... must not be changed
+        code = (
+            "for instrument in df.index.get_level_values('instrument').unique():\n"
+            "    df.loc[instrument] = modified\n"
+        )
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df.loc[instrument] = modified" in result
+
+    def test_non_instrument_loop_not_touched(self, fixer):
+        # for-loop not related to instrument levels must not be changed
+        code = "for date in dates:\n    sub = df.loc[date]\n"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "df.loc[date]" in result
+
+
+class TestGroupbyLevelStringNames:
+    def test_level_instrument_date_replaced(self, fixer):
+        code = "df.groupby(level=['instrument', 'date'])['col'].transform('sum')"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values(1)" in result
+        assert "get_level_values(0).normalize()" in result
+        assert "level=['instrument', 'date']" not in result
+
+    def test_level_date_instrument_replaced(self, fixer):
+        code = "data.groupby(level=['date', 'instrument'])['x'].mean()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "get_level_values(0).normalize()" in result
+        assert "get_level_values(1)" in result
+
+    def test_level_instrument_single_replaced(self, fixer):
+        code = "df.groupby(level=['instrument'])['vol'].sum()"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "groupby(level=1)" in result
+        assert "level=['instrument']" not in result
+
+
+class TestGroupbyApplyToTransform:
+    def test_col_apply_lambda_replaced(self, fixer):
+        code = "df_overlap.groupby(level=1)['$close'].apply(lambda x: np.log(x / x.shift(1)))"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert ".transform(" in result
+        assert ".apply(" not in result
+
+    def test_col_apply_lambda_preserves_lambda_body(self, fixer):
+        code = "series.groupby(level=1)['ret'].apply(lambda x: x.cumsum())"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "lambda x: x.cumsum()" in result
+        assert ".transform(" in result
+
+    def test_transform_reset_index_stripped(self, fixer):
+        # .transform() already preserves index — .reset_index() after it is wrong
+        code = "df['v'] = df.groupby(level=1)['x'].transform(lambda x: x.rolling(20).mean()).reset_index(level=0, drop=True)"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert ".reset_index(level=0, drop=True)" not in result
+        assert ".transform(" in result
+
+
+class TestZeroVolumeProxy:
+    def test_injects_proxy_when_volume_used(self, fixer):
+        code = (
+            "def calc():\n"
+            "    df = pd.read_hdf('data.h5', key='data')\n"
+            "    df['pv'] = df['$close'] * df['$volume']\n"
+            "    return df[['pv']]\n"
+        )
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "volume proxy" in result
+        assert "df['$volume'] = df['$high'] - df['$low']" in result
+        # Proxy must come right after read_hdf line
+        lines = result.splitlines()
+        hdf_idx = next(i for i, l in enumerate(lines) if "read_hdf" in l)
+        assert "volume proxy" in lines[hdf_idx + 1]
+
+    def test_no_injection_when_volume_absent(self, fixer):
+        code = "df = pd.read_hdf('data.h5', key='data')\ndf['x'] = df['$close'].pct_change()\n"
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert "volume proxy" not in result
+
+    def test_no_double_injection(self, fixer):
+        code = (
+            "def calc():\n"
+            "    df = pd.read_hdf('data.h5', key='data')\n"
+            "    # volume proxy: $volume is always 0 in FX data — use price-range as proxy\n"
+            "    if (df['$volume'] == 0).all():\n"
+            "        df['$volume'] = df['$high'] - df['$low']\n"
+            "    df['pv'] = df['$close'] * df['$volume']\n"
+        )
+        result = fixer.fix(code)
+        assert result.count("volume proxy") == 1
+
+
+class TestRollingDdof:
+    def test_removes_ddof_from_rolling_args(self, fixer):
+        result = fixer.fix("df.rolling(20, min_periods=1, ddof=1).std()")
+        assert "ddof" not in result
+
+    def test_removes_ddof_from_std_args(self, fixer):
+        result = fixer.fix("df.rolling(20).std(ddof=1)")
+        assert "ddof" not in result